3:38pm
A break of 109.80 on the SPY could result in a more bearish sentiment into tomorrow’s trading day, where as if the bulls sustain 110.00 by the end of the day, i expect the market to rally quite hard. If we end between 109.80-110.00 i favor the bulls but only by a little bit

2:06pm
After a break of 110.00, you have to start thinking bullish about the market, start buying dips instead of selling the rallies. It’s important to see where the market ends today, but it looks like it could end at the highs and continue rallying tomorrow. If it doesn’t end at the highs, as long as it ends above 110.00 you have to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt.

12:37pm
GS 5 minute testing the 149 level after it rallied to it earlier today. This is a buying opportunity with a stop right below, even though $150 level is the strongest resistance. I think if 149 holds, GS might be able to break $150 too, but it’s a good intraday trade either way:

12:06pm
The shine comes back to gold! http://www.ino.com/info/614/CD4204/&dp=0&l=0&campaignid=3

11:11am
SPY breaks 109.20 and obviously starts rallying hard.. it’ll have to break 109.85-110 for me to be back into the bullish camp overall.. rememeber that i am neutral between 106-110.

Poll of the day:

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10:24am
XLF not looking great, it’s now testing 14.08-14.10 support, once that breaks it will most likely fill in the gap and then potentially fall to new lows. Here’s the hourly chart:

10:20am
USO or (OIL ETF) is losing ground fast, it will find strong support around the 33.75 level but it’s now below 34. The SPY still hanging out between 109.20 and 109, a break of 109 will shove us to 108.55-108.60.

Continue reading the rest of this post… »

Leave your trades below! What are your thoughts on housing? The market index of housing coming out today at 10am, will definitely be a market mover.

3:08pm
Idan reveals his current idea of the Elliot Wave count on the SPX, saying that we are in the beginning of Wave 3 (the biggest wave) of Wave 1 of the bear market. This is subject to change:

11:59am
Even though the UUP has it’s own H&S, it looks like the dollar (though weaker) is getting stronger Vs. the euro, and forming it’s own H&S formation on the 4 hour chart of eur/usd a break of 1.2732, will be huge for the dollar, but we might get a bounce first:

11:35am
SPY hitting up against 108.25, right now… exciting. GS making a new low compared to yesterday’s mid-day low, very strong indication of weakness.

11:06am
I have been just staring at the minute action on the SPY all day and as you can see below, the bears are now gaining momentum. We failed to break 109-109.20, we then formed a lower low, and now it looks like we’re forming a bear flag. The ultimate level to break today is 108.25 and then 107.50, but this is a good start:

12:01am
Futures are right now forming a double top with what correlates to the 109 SPY level. It’ll be interesting to see whether or not we open above it or get above it tomorrow, or fall below 108.25 (which is where i’d get very bearish intraday).

Leave your trades below!

4:00pm
Market (as usual) ends on an ambiguous note. Yes we did end far away from 109-109.20, and that level was never broken. But on the other hand we didn’t really make any damage at the end of the day breaking the former lows at 108.25. My thoughts are to stay short unless the market breaks 109.20 on the SPY.

3:04pm
Nice reversal for the bulls right at the crucial 108.25 level, be careful to be short here.. .if the market ends near 109, it is prone to go higher, if it ends as a spin candle, it can fall tomorrow further.

2:35pm
The 1 minute SPY is setting up for a small crash here into the 3pm hour… be careful, a break of 108.25.

2:15pm
Be careful buying GLD, I think a pull back in GLD around the $119 level is very possible and could be the end of the GLD rally. GLD still looks strong but if you can see how strong the resistance is at 119, you’ll see that 119 could be the ending point of the rally or a starting point of an insane rally (if broken). I think it’s worth a short at these levels if you see a topping pattern. Check out the 4 hour chart:

1:56pm
SPY after hitting 109, is backing away from it… it needs to do more damage to the south for me to feel more secure with my SPY sept puts. Any push below 108.25 will be disastrous for the intra-day action.

1:52pm
7 Ways to Become an Unsuccessful Trader

Q&A with an experienced Elliott wave trader reveals seven common trading mistakes.
By Elliott Wave International

To be a successful trader demands knowledge. And if knowledge is what you need, why not obtain it from a professional who spent 25 years in portfolio management, trading, and forecasting in the Financial Capital of the World… Read more.

Continue reading the rest of this post… »

Leave your trades below!

1:56pm
Like I mentioned earlier 109.20 was hit, and we did get some type of bounce. But i’m not a buyer of this bounce yet because we broke the 110.00 level which should have held if the bulls were still in control. I think shorting 109.00-109.20 is the way to go. I shorted the SPY at 109.98 and my stop is at 109.88, i’m hoping we move lower from here.

11:23am
Check out this video from Adam at INO, you can sign up for free to get updates on all the videos. Here’s the last one: http://www.ino.com/info/609/CD4204/&dp=0&l=0&campaignid=3

10:52am
As GS daily touches $150, it looks like a great retracement of a very important breakout (former resistance is support) but with the SPY breaking down under 109.85, if we do hit GS at 150 it might be worth to short on a breakdown of that level rather than by the bounce. But both can be played with stops:

Continue reading the rest of this post… »

The Economic Crisis No One Saw Coming: A Convenient Untruth

By Elliott Wave International

The single most convenient untruth about the 2008 (and counting) financial crisis is that it was unforeseen. For two years policymakers have insisted “There was no way to know ahead of time” that the liquidity boom would come to a screeching halt. Yet even as the mainstream authorities failed to detect the economic earthquake moving below their own feet, somebody did “notice” well in advance. That person was EWI’s Bob Prechter. Read more.

2:35pm
My BA long position doing great, I’m putting a trailing stop on it.. let it run! On Alerts & Analytics, we bought a 3% position in YONG into earnings (it’s smaller than a usual position). YONG reports on teh 12th.

2:30pm
AMZN 1/5/10 minute is doing really well a breakout of $129 is very strong for AMZN (and it’s getting it right now for the 2nd time today). If it breaks $130, i think AMZN jumps 3-4% easily. Here’s the 1 minute:

Continue reading the rest of this post… »

1:08pm
Idan buys August CALL BA options, planning to hold them for a short while. Maybe have them roll over to September on a break of $70.

1:02pm
Ford seems to be getting stronger, with a high base like the one it has been forming over the last 7-10 trading days right at $13 resistance, it is fair to assume that it’s next move is up. For those who want to wait and only play the breakout, I’d wait for 13.15 to break.

11:26am
YONG from the Alerts & Analytics Service keeps rallying! Now up more than 7% since it was last bought and a stop securing over 4% at 8.67! If you haven’t subscribed yet, check it out!

11:06am
AMZN has fallen back down after it almost broke out of it’s 129+ resistance, which could have been very strong for the stock. That said, it makes sense for it to fall to around the 125-126 area before shooting back up. Ultimately this stock went from being the best short, to one of the strongest stocks. I’m a buyer on a dip:

Continue reading the rest of this post… »

Do you remember back to July, 2007 the Yen to the USD was 120.  I glanced at an article in Money and Markets and decided to take a fresh look.  Money and Markets author Bryan Rich writes Yen on Intervention Watch meaning that the pain for Japan is so great right now that we may be close to the government intervening as they did in 2003 and 2004. The Yen almost hit an even 85 to the dollar this week!

Rich points out that

• Honda’s CFO said making vehicles in Japan at a dollar/yen exchange rate of 85 is “not economically feasible.”
• Honda’s CEO said if the Japanese government can’t stabilize the yen, key export businesses would have no choice but to leave the country.
• Nissan’s COO said he’s “very concerned” about the yen’s strength.

Here’s the chart of  USD:JPY and you can see not only did a strengthening Yen break the trendline that started at 120 before falling back, but it’s put in a triple bottom in this area and RSI is showing divergence.  Might be time for a 10% countermove.

12:29pm
Idan is taking a break today because it’s his birthday, which is understandable. However, i’m echoing something he said earlier today. If 111.00 breaks on the SPY we will get a lot more downisde. But the TRUE level to break of 109.85, and eventually 109.00 to confirm a clear breakdown in the markets.

Todays action is not good for the bulls, they should have broken out of 113 and gone higher, this week might end red.

Idan Koren:

2:26pm
GE 4 hours chart shows that 16.50 is an incredibly important level to break, showing a very nice inverse H&S formation that is huge. If we do get a break of $16.50 i think GE becomes a buy, i think that you can go long on any push up above 16.50 as long as you have a stop right underneath.

2:19pm
I actually got stopped out of my GOOG august puts, but i still think GOOG has more room to go as long as it doesn’t fall under 503.75.

12:13pm
GOOG 1 minute showing a sign of a potential H&S formation, if we break down the $503.75 level I expect google to at least retrace a bit, towards the 500-501 level. My stops on my Aug Calls of GOOG are right below that level.. we’ll see where we go!

11:03am
Subscribing to Alerts & Analytics provides you with all the trades Idan and Sun Tze make (on their 1 million dollar portfolio), straight to your email. You can view their performance here, or sign up now!

One of the trades we made yesterday, was go LONG a stock called YONG. Based on it’s very oversold conditions and it’s technical breakouts we believe this stock can go higher. Our full explanation is given in our emails. But here’s the inverse H&S formation that YONG had at $8.40, we are now up over 2% and think this one can go much higher!

10:31am
Market continues to show incredible strength, even though the SPY opened down on horrible jobless claims, it seems like the SPY is about to fill this gap, and might go shoot higher. There’s still no reason to be bearish on the market yet. I would like to see the 109.85 level break before i start shorting things.

Woo:

3:16 am

Here’s my updated GOOG chart for those who entered long trades with Idan (congrats!).

You can see that we hit a descending trend line which was our peak today. If we don’t break out at the open, we’ll most likely see a drop for the day, and probably won’t break out all day. The RSI also hit resistance, which also means that if we don’t break out at open, we’re going to see a fairly strong down day or two. We could possibly test the sub 500 trend line below, so it’s wise to have that stop above to lock in profits if the break out doesn’t occur at open. If for any reason we do head down to the high 400s level, I’m thinking that double trend line support is going to play a major role for a stronger bounce. However, I would have tight stops there because a break of those two trend lines is going to mean a retest of the low 480s where the major fib retrace and 50ma are sitting. If we break north above 508.60s I’ll take a strong long position, I may consider a short/put position at open if the break isn’t there.

Idan:

12:00am
Google yesterday shot up more than 3.3%, with my options going up almost 3 fold in one day (170%++). While i still believe google might want to reach 520 before really pulling back, i have put my stops around the $501.30 level, and will only take the trade off if we reach 520 or hit the stop.

As far as the SPY goes, I don’t see any reason why the SPY should fall at this point in time. I think the SPY still has another 1-2% to the upside potentially before it gets a severe hit. This gives me confidence that the trades i made today for Alerts & Analytics should do well.

Here’s the SPY daily explaining the most bearish Elliott Wave Theory analysis that you could make on this rally. And until we break 115 to the upside, we won’t know if we break to new highs or not. Therefore i remain bullish until 114-115, and will look to add some short hedges at that point.