4:00pm
GOOG has been looking very bearish all day, now that it’s below 460 support (the only support left before a double bottom), I believe strongly that GOOG is ready to fall to new lows. Google is now likely to fall to $400, and $393 the 61.8% retrace of the whole rally.

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I thought i would video it up for old times sake. Here’s my daily video, i’ll be flying to israel tomorrow so i will be a little MIA. Leave your trades and thoughts below!

SPX Preferred Count
My preferred count continues to play out. I wouldn’t expect any meaningful bounce until we pass the Minor 1 low around 1010, but the large Head & Shoulders Neckline is a more likely target around 995. There are alternates, of course, but today’s gap lower looks like the 3rd of a 3rd. If the gap fills, it would put the preferred count in question. 3rd of 3rd waves generally create a price window that is not retraced until the next wave of higher degree, which would be Minute [ii] in this case.

Author Notes
- This is a rough road map for the market movement I expect based on the rules of Elliot Wave Theory (EWT).
- There may be several valid counts at any given time, but I am only presenting what I consider the most likely count based on my own objective analysis.

The Hindenburg Omen — Omen-ous or Not? – We have been talking a lot about this, so i thought to post it on here.

Elliott Wave International Chief Market Analyst Steve Hochberg Sheds Light on a Feared Technical Indicator
By Elliott Wave International

Last week’s volatile market action coincided with a technical signal called the Hindenburg Omen whereby a relatively high number of new highs and lows in individual stocks occur at the same time. This indicator instantly gained an enormous amount of media attention. In this interview, Steve Hochberg, EWI’s Chief Market Analyst shares his perspective on this indicator and the “re-emergence” of technical analysis. Read more.

Poll of the day!

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12:26pm
Some people are putting a lot of bullish bets. I think you can be bullish as we are above 106.00 as long as the next low is higher than the former low at 105.75. In the 1 min SPY below i drew a support level… if we do hit that support level then i’m starting to get bearish again, if we rally before hand, i stay bullish on the intraday acton:

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1:40pm
Right now we are waiting for the 107.40 level to break on the SPY… A break of that level will make me bearish and i’ll short some at 107.35. Here’s the SPY 1 minute, showing 107.40 as the most important level before bears (on the intraday action) push the market down.

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10:57am
Even though the SPY is flat after being up around 1% earlier today, the day is not bearish yet. We need to break down the 50 SMA 10 minute which coincides with 107.40 support. Only then can i be bearish and expect a lot more down to come.

10:24am
Market falling back down to fill in that gap, this doesn’t look good. Financials moving into negative territory…

10:06am
AAPL is getting ready to break $250 right now, a trendline that i said was semi-important to watch. A break of it will shove it to $247 (gradually decline). A break of $247 will mean we go to $243, a break of $243 will mean the bull market for AAPL is over.

Continue reading the rest of this post… »

SPX Hourly Count
The last trading week in August typically is a light volume week, which favors sideways to upward price action. For that reason, I’m less inclined to shout from the rooftops, “LOOK OUT BELOW!”

However, the counts are looking very bearish for the short term. Since the Minor 2 (blue) top, the market is impulsing down in 5-wave patterns and correcting up in 3-wave patterns. All signs point to a third of a third of a third wave lower coming shortly. Note that I have labeled Minor 2 as a double zig-zag rather than an ending diagonal.

Notes
This is a rough road map for the market movement I expect based on the rules of Elliot Wave Theory. There may be several valid counts at any given time, but I am only presenting what I consider the most likely count based on my own objective analysis.

9:30am
Futures rallied slightly right before the open, we’re right above 1070 now. I think the 1060-1070 area will be very tough to break, there has been so much choppy action there and random support levels that we will need to go through this very slowly.

8:15am
As long as you know the value of a VERY strong support/resistance line, you can make a lot of money, even if you lose some at first. Here’s my trading of the euro/dollar yesterday and overnight on the 1.2825 level that we have been talking about for a few days. Enjoy the first loss, the slight second profit, and the third trade in which i’m still holding short the eur/usd with A LOT of profit:

7:49am
Futures are already trading below the equivalent of 1070 on the SPX, this could mean that we are ready to fall into the 1058-1060 range. IF WE BREAK 1058-1060 we will get HUGE sell offs of great magnitudes 3-4% start. I believe 940-960 is not far off from being hit as soon as 1058-1060 breaks to the down side.

Here’s the daily chart showing all the levels of support with the target at 95.00 +/- 1.00 if we break 105.80 low on the SPY. Also notice that the 50% retracement of the whole bull market is at 94.60.

LIVE TRADING at 10:50am EST! Idan’s Company is in the news , enjoy – http://techcrunch.com/2010/08/18/cheggs-first-acquisition-courserank/

9:59am
We are getting an incredibly bearish set-up on the XLF as it’s about to break 14.11 and the SPY has fallen below 109 and is now hitting it as resistance, i want to add some XLF puts here for a potential dump coming in.

9:57am
I am short the SPY with a stop above 109.20.. the fact that we are under 109 again does not bode well for the markets. I do want to see more of a break before i really go short, but the jobs number was just purely horrible

8:58am
Market gets hit on jobs number, but it still looks like we will open around the 109 level so wait for that break before you go short. My Eur/USD short trade went well and i got stopped out overnight with about a 0.5% profit.

12:01am
The SPY managed to close for the second time in a row under the 110.00 after being above it mid-day. The AMZN trade i had placed got stopped out with about a 0.23% profit ($300 or so). But the fact that both AMZN and SPY were not able to hold their breakouts should worry the bulls.

If the bears shove the markets under 109.00 on SPY, i will be going short the SPY and other weaker or overbought stocks. I also went short the Euro when 1.2825 broke down as mentioned in my LIVE TRADING videos.

Here’s a 10 minute of the SPY showing you the important levels:

12:01am
Leave your trades below! Live Trading will start at 11:20am EST today! If you have any charts you want us to look at during Live Trading, make sure to post it below!

Slicing the Neckline: A Classic Technical Pattern Agrees with the Elliott Wave Count

August 17, 2010

By Elliott Wave International

In the August issue of his Elliott Wave Theorist, market forecaster Robert Prechter alerted readers that the U.S. stock market was slicing the neckline of a classic head-and-shoulders pattern in technical analysis, and that this may send the market into critical condition.

Prechter said that when the Elliott wave count and a head-and-shoulders pattern are saying the same thing about the stock market, it’s best to pay attention.

Read some of the latest nuggets directly from Robert Prechter’s desk — FREE. Click here to download a free report packed with recent quotes directly from Pr

A Hindenburg Omen is triggered when the daily number of NYSE new 52 Week highs and the daily number of new 52 week lows both exceed 2.2% of all issues traded. The first Hindenburg omen was triggered on Tuesday July 6th. I have since learned that the 10 day ma was not rising on the 6th, but in fact was falling – No Signal. For the omen to have any validity another one must be triggered within 36 days. One was on August 6th. Actually the McClennan oscillator is supposed to be negative and it was positive – No Signal. A third omen took place on August 12th. The 10 day ma was falling, again – No Signal.

Most HO’s occur in swarms. For the indicator to be confirmed, it must occur in clusters within an approximate 5 or 6 week window.

The HO has been present before all of the stock market crashes and/or panics of the past 25 years. No significant sell-off, during this period, has occurred without the presence of a Hindenburg Omen.

Couple that with talk about Gold ready to blast off and I urge you to be very careful out there.

Tags: Hindenburg Omen stock market crash Gold Marko’s Take