FocalEquity » Intraday Commentary http://www.focalequity.com Tue, 07 Feb 2012 22:01:44 +0000 en hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.2 2011-11-07 Stock and Leveraged ETF Highlights http://www.focalequity.com/2011/11/07/2011-11-07-stock-and-leveraged-etf-highlights/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=2011-11-07-stock-and-leveraged-etf-highlights http://www.focalequity.com/2011/11/07/2011-11-07-stock-and-leveraged-etf-highlights/#comments Mon, 07 Nov 2011 06:58:40 +0000 FocalEquity http://www.focalequity.com/?p=30973 Tze: (2011-11-07 Trading Day) – Submit your questions and comments in our comment section through the comment link.

Stock Highlights:

Bank of America (BAC) – seems to found support at the low $5 range. It has been trading in a choppy sideways fashion since then and rallied close to 40% off its October low. It continues to rank well in our stock ranking model (8 of out 3,517)

NKE – NIKE

It’s apparent that NKE is struggling making new highs. It’s very possible that it formed a top in late October. It continues to rank poorly in our stock ranking model (3,471 out of 3,517)

Key Leveraged ETFs:

TMF - Direxion Daily 30-Yr Trsry Bull 3X Shrs

The 30-year treasuries are rallying again, indicating weakness in the stock market is emerging once again. With the 200 SMA rising, there is nothing that prevents TMF from going higher from here. Currently, it ranks in the top quintile 1 of our leveraged ETF universe.

]]> http://www.focalequity.com/2011/11/07/2011-11-07-stock-and-leveraged-etf-highlights/feed/ 0 2011-11-02 ETF Model Highlight: EUO http://www.focalequity.com/2011/11/02/2011-11-02-etf-highlight-euo/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=2011-11-02-etf-highlight-euo http://www.focalequity.com/2011/11/02/2011-11-02-etf-highlight-euo/#comments Wed, 02 Nov 2011 05:04:29 +0000 roller coaster http://www.focalequity.com/?p=30904

Today we are highlight ProSharesUltraShort Euro (EUO), which has a quintile ranking of 1 in the ETF model.  EUO was consolidating for about 4 months before it broke out of it’s trading range.  Recently, this ETF has spiked up, and continues to show bullishness as it makes higher lows.  It’s 50 SMA is also rising.

 
]]> http://www.focalequity.com/2011/11/02/2011-11-02-etf-highlight-euo/feed/ 0 2011-10-31 Video: Markets Start Lower, Is This A Trick Or A Treat? http://www.focalequity.com/2011/10/31/2011-10-31-video-markets-start-lower-is-this-a-trick-or-a-treat/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=2011-10-31-video-markets-start-lower-is-this-a-trick-or-a-treat http://www.focalequity.com/2011/10/31/2011-10-31-video-markets-start-lower-is-this-a-trick-or-a-treat/#comments Mon, 31 Oct 2011 13:43:06 +0000 inthemoneystocks http://www.focalequity.com/?p=30848 This morning, the S&P 500 Index e-mini futures (ES Z1) are trading lower by $15.75 points to 1265.25 per contract. The catalyst for the decline is once again a problematic European Union. Yields on Italian and Portuguese debt are beginning to spike higher again. It still amazes me that central banks and governments believe that a debt crisis can be solved by borrowing more debt. Over the weekend there was also very little progress in bringing the Chinese on board for a European bailout. This European bailout reminds me of the health care bill that was passed in the United States, you will find out the details later after the bill is passed. This is simply insanity.

 

Click here to view the embedded video.

]]> http://www.focalequity.com/2011/10/31/2011-10-31-video-markets-start-lower-is-this-a-trick-or-a-treat/feed/ 0 2011-10-31 Stock and Leveraged ETF Highlights http://www.focalequity.com/2011/10/31/2011-10-31-stock-and-leveraged-etf-highlights/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=2011-10-31-stock-and-leveraged-etf-highlights http://www.focalequity.com/2011/10/31/2011-10-31-stock-and-leveraged-etf-highlights/#comments Mon, 31 Oct 2011 04:30:29 +0000 FocalEquity http://www.focalequity.com/?p=30842 Tze: (2011-10-31 Trading Day) – Submit your questions and comments in our comment section through the comment link.

Stock Highlights:

1. Bank of America Corp NYSE:BAC

BAC’s ATR peaked while in the downtrend, indicating a change a trend maybe taking place. It’s now over the 20 & 50 SMA breaking its downtrend. The stock has a steller ranking of no.8 out of 3,517 in our stock ranking model.

 

2. NYSE:YUM Yum! Brands, Inc.

Yum Brand is struggling to make new highs and we could argue it is currently exhibiting a potential H&S pattern. The stock ranks poorly in the stock ranking model with a ranking of 3,475 out of 3,517.

Key Leveraged ETF Highligt:

1. AMEX:YCS ProShares UltraShort Yen (ETF)

The Japanese government is intervening to stop the Yen’s relentless appreciation. Current YCS ranks in quintile 2 of the leveraged ETF model. Currently, we still do not see any signs of a reversal in YCS, but it may be in a bottoming process.


]]> http://www.focalequity.com/2011/10/31/2011-10-31-stock-and-leveraged-etf-highlights/feed/ 0 2011-10-28 Stock and Leveraged ETF Highlights http://www.focalequity.com/2011/10/28/2011-10-28-stock-and-leveraged-etf-highlights/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=2011-10-28-stock-and-leveraged-etf-highlights http://www.focalequity.com/2011/10/28/2011-10-28-stock-and-leveraged-etf-highlights/#comments Fri, 28 Oct 2011 04:23:08 +0000 FocalEquity http://www.focalequity.com/?p=30785 Tze: (2011-10-28 Trading Day) – Submit your questions and comments in our comment section through the comment link.

Stock Highlights:

Please download our newly WEEKLY updated STOCK RANKING MODEL here:ModelOutput_20111023

1. NASDAQ:SOHU Sohu.com Inc.

SOHU’s ATR is climibing above 5, a level that has repeated accompanied by previous tops of this stock. In addition, SMA 20, 50 and 200 are still declining. The stock currently ranks 2,335 out of 3,514 in our stock ranking model.

2. NYSE:YOKU Youku.com Inc (ADR)

Last year’s big IPO turned out to be a flop. The stock’s recent rally is meeting resistance at the 20 SMA. It could be trading sideways for a while. It ranks poorly in our stock model with a ranking of 2,577 out of 3,517.

Key Leveraged ETFs:

Download our latest leveraged ETF model update using closing prices as of 10/27/2011. Download the DAILY updated model here: ETFRanking_20111027

1. AMEX:AGQ ProShares Ultra Silver (ETF)

AGQ’s rally is gaining momentum. Now it ranks no.1 in our ETF model and it has been ranked within quintile one and two for the last two weeks. Its next resistence would be the $83 to $84 level.

 

]]> http://www.focalequity.com/2011/10/28/2011-10-28-stock-and-leveraged-etf-highlights/feed/ 1 2011-10-27 Stock and Leveraged ETF Highlights http://www.focalequity.com/2011/10/27/2011-10-27-stock-and-leveraged-etf-highlights/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=2011-10-27-stock-and-leveraged-etf-highlights http://www.focalequity.com/2011/10/27/2011-10-27-stock-and-leveraged-etf-highlights/#comments Thu, 27 Oct 2011 05:00:26 +0000 FocalEquity http://www.focalequity.com/?p=30742 Tze: (2011-10-27 Trading Day) – Submit your questions and comments in our comment section through the comment link.

Stock Highlights:

Please download our newly WEEKLY updated STOCK RANKING MODEL here:ModelOutput_20111023

1. NYSE:VLO Valero Energy Corporation

VLO is nice value stock with attractive value related factors relative to its peers within the oil and gas sector. The stock had a vicious rally since its bottom in October and it passed its 200 SMA. Hopefully the 200 SMA turns from a strong resistance to a strong support.

Valero currently ranks in the top 12% of our stock universe with a ranking of 433 out of 3,517.

 

2. NYSE:NSC Norfolk Southern Corp.

Norkfolk Southern ranks poorly in our stock model with a rank of 3,293 out of 3,514.

 

NSC also had a vicious rally since the October bottom. The short interest factor for NSC tells me that part of the rally was due to short covering. Right now the stock is trading with decreasing volume and it can easily come down to test the 50 SMA.

Key Leveraged ETFs:

Download our latest leveraged ETF model update using closing prices as of 10/26/2011. Download the DAILY updated model here: ETFRanking_20111026

1. AMEX:FAS Direxion Daily Finan. Bull 3X Shs(ETF)

Financials seem to be gaining steam for the past two weeks. Now FAS is having a steady rise with a rising 20 SMA and a flattened 50 SMA. Currently, FAS ranks in the the first quintile of the ETF model indicating continued bullishness.

]]> http://www.focalequity.com/2011/10/27/2011-10-27-stock-and-leveraged-etf-highlights/feed/ 1 2011-10-26 Stock and Leveraged ETF Highlights http://www.focalequity.com/2011/10/26/2011-10-26-stock-and-leveraged-etf-highlights/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=2011-10-26-stock-and-leveraged-etf-highlights http://www.focalequity.com/2011/10/26/2011-10-26-stock-and-leveraged-etf-highlights/#comments Wed, 26 Oct 2011 05:47:28 +0000 roller coaster http://www.focalequity.com/?p=30703 Tze: (2011-10-26 Trading Day) – Submit your questions and comments in our comment section through the comment link.

Stock Highlights:

Please download our newly WEEKLY updated STOCK RANKING MODEL here:ModelOutput_20111023

1. NASDAQ:AMZN (AMAZON.COM INC.)

AMZN ranks 3,486 out of 3,514. It’s one of the top 50 shorts in our stock ranking model.

Value factors for AMZN are terrible including: Price to sales, Price to Book and Price to earnings growth relative to other stocks in our universe.  In addition, Wall Street analysts are concerned about the valuation of this stock causing the current price to be significantly higher than the average analyst consensus.  AMZN is also making less upward progress as it’s making new highs.  The ATR indicator is at it’s highs, which may indicate a change in trend may occur.

2. NASDAQ: NFLX (Netflix Inc.)

NFLX ranks ranks 2,769 out of 3,514. The stock dropped over 70% in three months.

NFLX value related factors are also weak but the stock was also significantly boosted recently by short covering. Thus, since the stock passed $300, its precipitous fall was part due to the fact that there are few buyers of last resort for this stock.

Key Leveraged ETFs:

Download our latest leveraged ETF model update using closing prices as of 10/25/2011. Download the DAILY updated model here: ETFRanking_20111025

3. NYSE: ULG (Ultra Gold)

The model has reflected that UGL is a top ranked ETF.  In our opinion, the rally may have legs, with support at $85 and it’s rising 200 SMA.

]]> http://www.focalequity.com/2011/10/26/2011-10-26-stock-and-leveraged-etf-highlights/feed/ 1 2011-10-26: Stocks Decline at Bottom of my Reversal Zone…..Top in Place? http://www.focalequity.com/2011/10/26/stocks-decline-at-bottom-of-my-reversal-zone-top-in-place-10-25-2011-2/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=stocks-decline-at-bottom-of-my-reversal-zone-top-in-place-10-25-2011-2 http://www.focalequity.com/2011/10/26/stocks-decline-at-bottom-of-my-reversal-zone-top-in-place-10-25-2011-2/#comments Wed, 26 Oct 2011 05:34:31 +0000 principleanalysis http://www.focalequity.com/?p=30686

Internals today were very bearish in that declining stocks far outweighed advancing stocks on the NYSE and S&P. And although volume increase slightly today overall, it was still quite light today coming in at just under 1 billlion shares NYSE. Not sure this supports the case of a top being in right now, but volume doesn’t have to enter right at the top, it can come in during the following days, and there is certainly evidence in place now that suggests Intermediate wave (2) might be over.

Stocks reversed at a very interesting level at the 61.8% fibonacci near 1257. I’ve been citing this as the bottom level of my reversal zone the past couple weeks since the 61% and 78% fibonacci retracement levels are often the stopping points for 2nd waves, it’s above the prior 4th wave, and the end of Minor wave 1 down June 16, 2011 is at 1257. All represent good resistance levels that should give Intermediate wave (2) some trouble.

I would have liked to see higher volume with a rally and reversal to be more certain that a top is in right now, but the evidence would seem to at least warrant me to start getting short here. I will add to my short position on further rallying and /or an acceleration of the downtrend with strong volume and very bearish internals.

I like to look at the SPY (S&P SPDR) as a proxy for overall stock market volume sometimes. You can see that the big sharp decline we had this past July/August had increasing volume accompany it, while the recent Intermediate wave (2) rally has had mildly decreasing volume. This is bearish. You can even see the 20 day moving average trailing slightly down now while price moves higher. This is a good sign that we’re on the right track in counting this current rally as a correction, and NOT a resumption of the previous uptrend.

There is plenty of other evidence to support this, but I don’t see a reason to put a laundry list of things on here. The bottom line is that as long as this year’s high remains intact, I see substantial risk to stocks, and that once Intermediate wave (2) ends, the decline should be deep and sharp providing substantial profit potential for those on the short side.

The euro has reached a level I’m comfortable putting on a very small short position to start easing into a larger short position for the longer term. Today’s weakness may even be enough for some aggressive traders to get short with a stop just above the overnight high. With a nice round number of 1.4000 at the 61.8% fibonacci retracement level in arms reach, it’s hard to think that at least on sharp, and possibly quick, attempt to reach 1.4000 won’t be made by the euro. But no matter what my play is on how to approach the short side, I want to make sure I’m in the market when this pair finally decides to turn sharply lower on what I believe will be a move towards parity with the US dollar. If a sharp move to 1.4000 occurs overnight and stops me out, I wouldn’t be surprised if a sharp reversal takes place shortly after, prompting me to jump back in on the short side.

http://principleanalysis.blogspot.com/

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

]]> http://www.focalequity.com/2011/10/26/stocks-decline-at-bottom-of-my-reversal-zone-top-in-place-10-25-2011-2/feed/ 1 2011-10-25 Stock and Leveraged ETF Highlights http://www.focalequity.com/2011/10/25/2011-10-25-stock-and-etfs-highlights/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=2011-10-25-stock-and-etfs-highlights http://www.focalequity.com/2011/10/25/2011-10-25-stock-and-etfs-highlights/#comments Tue, 25 Oct 2011 06:29:53 +0000 roller coaster http://www.focalequity.com/?p=30637 Tze: (2011-10-25 Trading Day) – Submit your questions and comments in our comment section through the comment link.

Stock Highlights:

Please download our newly WEEKLY updated STOCK RANKING MODEL here:ModelOutput_20111023

1. NASDAQ: NFLX (Netflix Inc.)

Our stock model has been accurate in predicting the demise of NFLX since two months ago.  NFLX has been ranked in the bottom 5% of our stock universe.  The stock was in the high $200 range when we first began to cover this stock.   Since then it has fallen nearly $200 per share.


2. NYSE: FCX (Freeport McMoran Copper & Gold)

FCX ranks 1,208 out of 3514 in the stock ranking model.  The downtrend can continue in this stock after the recovering from it’s recent bottom.

Key Leveraged ETFs:

Download our latest leveraged ETF model update using closing prices as of 10/24/2011. Download the DAILY updated model here:ETFRanking_20111024

3. NYSE: QLD (Ultra QQQ Fund)

Based on the ETF model, most of the bull ETFs rank 1 or 2.   This shows that the recent rally is broad sector based and the broad sentiment is bullish.  For this reason, we are long QLD.

]]> http://www.focalequity.com/2011/10/25/2011-10-25-stock-and-etfs-highlights/feed/ 1 2011-10-24 EEV Making Saucer Bottom http://www.focalequity.com/2011/10/24/2011-10-24-eev-making-saucer-bottom/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=2011-10-24-eev-making-saucer-bottom http://www.focalequity.com/2011/10/24/2011-10-24-eev-making-saucer-bottom/#comments Mon, 24 Oct 2011 05:01:42 +0000 roller coaster http://www.focalequity.com/?p=30609 Tze and Roller Coaster: (2011-10-24 Trading Day) – Submit your questions and comments in our comment section through the comment link.

Stock Highlights:

Please download our newly WEEKLY updated STOCK RANKING MODEL here:ModelOutput_20111023

1. NYSE: CAT (Caterpillar Inc.)

Caterpillar has broken it’s uptrend, and also the 50 SMA.  It ranks poorly in the Stock Model at 2327 out of 3514, making it a short candidate.  It’s finding support at the 200 SMA, but we don’t expect this bounce to last.

Key Leveraged ETFs:

Download our latest leveraged ETF model update using closing prices as of 10/20/2011. Download the DAILY updated model here:ETFRanking_20111021

2. NYSE: YCS (UltraShort Yen)

YCS has a quintile 1 in the ETF model.  The YEN had made a record high, and we can expect the Japanese government to intervene.  The ATR continues to go lower, which can mean the downtrend is weakening.

2. NYSE: EEV (UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets)

EEV has a quintile ranking of 1.  It has made a saucer bottom and is beginning to show upside momentum.  The recent pullback to the SMAs can be a buy opportunity.

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