Videos Archive

  • StockTock.com discusses the uncertain market environment and what it means to short-term traders. This remains a day trading environment, and overnight risk should be kept to a minimum. Today, the S&P fell through its 38.2% retracement level and filled the gap from Friday. We analyze the fall in treasuries and explain why this may not indicate an increased appetite for risk. The huge cost of the bailout is bearish for treasuries and the US dollar, while gold's status as a reserve currency is strengthened. We have a slight bullish bias for the S&P in the days ahead, as today's move lower looks like light volume consolidation on a number of charts. Oil may have broken out of its downtrend today, but needs to confirm the move and break above an important resistance level we point out in the video. We look at charts of Gold (GLD), 10-Year Treasury Bond (TNX), US Dollar Index (DXY), Volatility (VIX), S&P 500 Index (SPY, SPX, ESZ8), Financials (XLF), Technology (QQQQ), Real Estate (IYR, SRS), Oil (USO), Gold Miners (GDX), and Yamana Gold (AUY). Also, note that retailers (XRT) and home builders (XHB) were down big today, but did not violate their uptrend lines.

    Video ~ 9/22/08

    Posted on September 22, 2008 | 14 Comments
    StockTock.com discusses the uncertain market environment and what it means to short-term traders. This remains a day trading environment, and overnight risk should be kept to a minimum. Today, the S&P fell through its 38.2% retracement level and filled the gap from Friday. We analyze the fall in treasuries and explain why this may not indicate an increased appetite for risk. The huge cost of the bailout is bearish for treasuries and the US dollar, while gold's status as a reserve currency is strengthened. We have a slight bullish bias for the S&P in the days ahead, as today's move lower looks like light volume consolidation on a number of charts. Oil may have broken out of its downtrend today, but needs to confirm the move and break above an important resistance level we point out in the video. We look at charts of Gold (GLD), 10-Year Treasury Bond (TNX), US Dollar Index (DXY), Volatility (VIX), S&P 500 Index (SPY, SPX, ESZ8), Financials (XLF), Technology (QQQQ), Real Estate (IYR, SRS), Oil (USO), Gold Miners (GDX), and Yamana Gold (AUY). Also, note that retailers (XRT) and home builders (XHB) were down big today, but did not violate their uptrend lines.

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  • StockTock.com discusses the market's rally on hopes the US Government is crafting a plan that will rescue the financial system from its worsening crisis. Try not to get distracted the constant news flow and trust the charts, as hard as it might be. From a technical perspective, nothing has changed. We remain very bearish on this market and used the rally to short the S&P from 1214. Tomorrow is options expiration and more gov't intervention in our once free market is possible. Don't let short-term fluctuations distract you from the larger trends playing out. If the S&P can rally and confrim a break above 1230 on a daily chart, I will re-evaluate my view. We look at ESZ8, SPY, SPX, XLF, GS, MS, QQQQ, TNX, GLD, DXY, and USO. Please keep in mind that this is a very dangerous market for disciplined traders only.

    Video ~ 9/18/08

    Posted on September 18, 2008 | 7 Comments
    StockTock.com discusses the market's rally on hopes the US Government is crafting a plan that will rescue the financial system from its worsening crisis. Try not to get distracted the constant news flow and trust the charts, as hard as it might be. From a technical perspective, nothing has changed. We remain very bearish on this market and used the rally to short the S&P from 1214. Tomorrow is options expiration and more gov't intervention in our once free market is possible. Don't let short-term fluctuations distract you from the larger trends playing out. If the S&P can rally and confrim a break above 1230 on a daily chart, I will re-evaluate my view. We look at ESZ8, SPY, SPX, XLF, GS, MS, QQQQ, TNX, GLD, DXY, and USO. Please keep in mind that this is a very dangerous market for disciplined traders only.

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  • StockTock.com discusses the massive selloff and what to expect in the short-term. It makes me uncomfortable to be so bearish, but I expect the S&P to be trading under 1000 within the next couple weeks. I will use any options expiration bounce to sell into. The global financial system is broken and this is the beginning of its unraveling. We explain how to use Fibonacci Fans, which help predict the pace of the decline. We also use Elliot Wave Theory to come up with downside projections for wave 3(3). There are no hiding spots in this bear market, although I think gold is done going down because there is simply nowhere else to put money. Phase 2 of the credit crisis has begun, and bank failures will be rampant now that liquidity has dried up. The treasury cannot afford more bailouts without threatening the credit rating on US sovereign debt. The dollar came under pressure today, helping to boost some commodities. The oil market is in 'contango', which is supposed to be bullish. I'd like to see more volume buying before I play in that game. The VIX soared today, eclipsing the Bear Stearn's level. Yesterday, I hypothesized the VIX could reach 50, but now I expect it. These are the best of times for day traders, but iron-clad discipline is required. We look at ESZ8, SPY, SPX, QQQQ, XLF, DXY, TNX, GLD, USO, UNG, and VIX.

    Video ~ 9/17/08

    Posted on September 17, 2008 | 13 Comments
    StockTock.com discusses the massive selloff and what to expect in the short-term. It makes me uncomfortable to be so bearish, but I expect the S&P to be trading under 1000 within the next couple weeks. I will use any options expiration bounce to sell into. The global financial system is broken and this is the beginning of its unraveling. We explain how to use Fibonacci Fans, which help predict the pace of the decline. We also use Elliot Wave Theory to come up with downside projections for wave 3(3). There are no hiding spots in this bear market, although I think gold is done going down because there is simply nowhere else to put money. Phase 2 of the credit crisis has begun, and bank failures will be rampant now that liquidity has dried up. The treasury cannot afford more bailouts without threatening the credit rating on US sovereign debt. The dollar came under pressure today, helping to boost some commodities. The oil market is in 'contango', which is supposed to be bullish. I'd like to see more volume buying before I play in that game. The VIX soared today, eclipsing the Bear Stearn's level. Yesterday, I hypothesized the VIX could reach 50, but now I expect it. These are the best of times for day traders, but iron-clad discipline is required. We look at ESZ8, SPY, SPX, QQQQ, XLF, DXY, TNX, GLD, USO, UNG, and VIX.

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  • StockTock.com discusses the latest developments with AIG and its impact on the markets. Barring negative news flow, today appears to be a short-term bottom for the stock market, completing sub-wave 3 in our Elliot Wave analysis. We look at SPY, TNX, XLF, QQQQ, OIH, USO, and VIX.

    Video ~ 8/16/08

    Posted on September 16, 2008 | 15 Comments
    StockTock.com discusses the latest developments with AIG and its impact on the markets. Barring negative news flow, today appears to be a short-term bottom for the stock market, completing sub-wave 3 in our Elliot Wave analysis. We look at SPY, TNX, XLF, QQQQ, OIH, USO, and VIX.

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  • StockTock.com discusses the gigantic down day on Wall Street as the S&P made its lowest close since October 27, 2005 and the Dow fell more than 500 points. Our call for the next leg lower appears to be playing out as expected according to our Elliot Wave analysis. We list the indicators traders should watch for signs that a short-term bottom has been made (VIX, 10-year treasury bond). I don't think we are quite there yet. The XLF broke below key 19.75 support. GS appears to be breaking down, which is another popular leading indicator for the market. Traders are questioning whether the broker/dealer business model is broken. Charts of WB, C, UBS, MS, and C look awful and may be the next ships to sink. We touch on the MER/BAC deal, but I will spare you my opinion that the deal was either forced or Ken Lewis is off his rocker. SRS is at an important resistance level that warrants watching. And the US dollar struggled today, but I am still impressed with its resilience. Oil closed under $100. This AIG situation is of the utmost importance to the markets. So far, there is no sensible resolution in sight. Tomorrow morning, we hear earnings from Goldman Sachs. Fed Rate Decision will be at 2:15pm ET.

    Video ~ 9/15/08

    Posted on September 15, 2008 | 16 Comments
    StockTock.com discusses the gigantic down day on Wall Street as the S&P made its lowest close since October 27, 2005 and the Dow fell more than 500 points. Our call for the next leg lower appears to be playing out as expected according to our Elliot Wave analysis. We list the indicators traders should watch for signs that a short-term bottom has been made (VIX, 10-year treasury bond). I don't think we are quite there yet. The XLF broke below key 19.75 support. GS appears to be breaking down, which is another popular leading indicator for the market. Traders are questioning whether the broker/dealer business model is broken. Charts of WB, C, UBS, MS, and C look awful and may be the next ships to sink. We touch on the MER/BAC deal, but I will spare you my opinion that the deal was either forced or Ken Lewis is off his rocker. SRS is at an important resistance level that warrants watching. And the US dollar struggled today, but I am still impressed with its resilience. Oil closed under $100. This AIG situation is of the utmost importance to the markets. So far, there is no sensible resolution in sight. Tomorrow morning, we hear earnings from Goldman Sachs. Fed Rate Decision will be at 2:15pm ET.

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  • StockTock.com does not discuss the latest developments with Lehman (LEH), Washington Mutual (WM), or American International Group (AIG). The news/rumor-driven nature of the market this week can be a treacherous distraction to traders. Rather than study the possible scenarios and speculate on the market's reaction to them, StockTock would rather take a step back and look at some long-term charts to filter out the noise of this volatile market. We look at important support and resistance levels for the S&P (SPY), the US dollar (UUP, DXY), oil (USO), technology (QQQQ), Apple (AAPL), Research in Motion (RIMM), Google (GOOG), banks (KBX), financials (XLF), Goldman Sachs (GS), real estate (IYR), American Express (AXP), home builders (XHB), retailers (XRT), small caps (IWM), and Potash (POT). Next week should be very volatile. Hurricane Ike is gaining strength in the Gulf of Mexico, there is a Fed meeting on Tuesday, and Friday is options expiration.

    Video ~ 9/12/08

    Posted on September 12, 2008 | 2 Comments
    StockTock.com does not discuss the latest developments with Lehman (LEH), Washington Mutual (WM), or American International Group (AIG). The news/rumor-driven nature of the market this week can be a treacherous distraction to traders. Rather than study the possible scenarios and speculate on the market's reaction to them, StockTock would rather take a step back and look at some long-term charts to filter out the noise of this volatile market. We look at important support and resistance levels for the S&P (SPY), the US dollar (UUP, DXY), oil (USO), technology (QQQQ), Apple (AAPL), Research in Motion (RIMM), Google (GOOG), banks (KBX), financials (XLF), Goldman Sachs (GS), real estate (IYR), American Express (AXP), home builders (XHB), retailers (XRT), small caps (IWM), and Potash (POT). Next week should be very volatile. Hurricane Ike is gaining strength in the Gulf of Mexico, there is a Fed meeting on Tuesday, and Friday is options expiration.

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  • StockTock.com discusses today's reversal and points out important resistance levels to watch for in the days ahead. We talk about the breaking news after-hours: Gov't arranging sale of Lehman Brothers (LEH) private consortium. We look at our Elliot Wave analysis in light on the Nov. 4 election. We touch on financials: XLF, GS, MER, AIG, WM. And technology: QQQQ, GOOG, AAPL. We also look at the ten-year treasury bond and the VIX, which tell us there is more downside in equities. The next leg down will likely be led by commodity-related stocks, particularly metals and miners (XME). Gold (GLD) is threatening to break long-term support. Oil (USO) made another new low. What a market!

    Video ~ 9/11/08

    Posted on September 11, 2008 | 2 Comments
    StockTock.com discusses today's reversal and points out important resistance levels to watch for in the days ahead. We talk about the breaking news after-hours: Gov't arranging sale of Lehman Brothers (LEH) private consortium. We look at our Elliot Wave analysis in light on the Nov. 4 election. We touch on financials: XLF, GS, MER, AIG, WM. And technology: QQQQ, GOOG, AAPL. We also look at the ten-year treasury bond and the VIX, which tell us there is more downside in equities. The next leg down will likely be led by commodity-related stocks, particularly metals and miners (XME). Gold (GLD) is threatening to break long-term support. Oil (USO) made another new low. What a market!

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  • StockTock.com discusses the pause day in the markets. Tomorrow might be another pause day or a small up day. I would use any bounce to sell into. We talk about the outperformance of small caps and its relation to hedge fund liquidations. We look at LEH, WM, and ponder whether MER might be next. The XLF remains in a channel and we don't want to touch it. Tech remains weak as GOOG made a fresh 52-wk low. QQQQ is consolidating just above important wedge pattern support. I think it will break. Retailers and homebuilders are outperforming and are probably not worth shorting right here. Let them trend higher and short the reversal, but don't call the top.

    Video ~ 9/10/08

    Posted on September 10, 2008 | No Comments
    StockTock.com discusses the pause day in the markets. Tomorrow might be another pause day or a small up day. I would use any bounce to sell into. We talk about the outperformance of small caps and its relation to hedge fund liquidations. We look at LEH, WM, and ponder whether MER might be next. The XLF remains in a channel and we don't want to touch it. Tech remains weak as GOOG made a fresh 52-wk low. QQQQ is consolidating just above important wedge pattern support. I think it will break. Retailers and homebuilders are outperforming and are probably not worth shorting right here. Let them trend higher and short the reversal, but don't call the top.

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  • StockTock.com discusses the huge selloff today on large volume. This was the lowest close for the S&P since July 15. Weakness was broad based, but focused on financials and commodity stocks. LEH was down 45% and AIG finished lower by 19%. It appears hedge funds are being forced to liquidate positions. This is not a market to be calling a bottom in. Follow the momentum. The market can fall a lot further! We look at SPY, XLF, LEH, AIG, QQQQ, UUP, USO, GLD, KOL, SLX, OIH, EEM, FXI, TNX, VIX, and Elliot Wave S&P.

    Video ~ 9/9/08

    Posted on September 9, 2008 | 6 Comments
    StockTock.com discusses the huge selloff today on large volume. This was the lowest close for the S&P since July 15. Weakness was broad based, but focused on financials and commodity stocks. LEH was down 45% and AIG finished lower by 19%. It appears hedge funds are being forced to liquidate positions. This is not a market to be calling a bottom in. Follow the momentum. The market can fall a lot further! We look at SPY, XLF, LEH, AIG, QQQQ, UUP, USO, GLD, KOL, SLX, OIH, EEM, FXI, TNX, VIX, and Elliot Wave S&P.

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  • StockTock.com discusses the market's dramatic price action and what it means for our short-term and medium-term outlook. We talk about how a trade's timeframe will dictate how we behave in the market. The SPY topped out at an interesting resistance point this morning. We identify all the important support and resistance levels for the the S&P. We also analyze the charts of QQQQ (NASDAQ 100), XLF (Financials), TNX (10-Year Treasury Yield), UUP (US Dollar Index), IWM (Small Caps), XHB (Homebuilders), and XRT (Retailers).

    Video ~ 9/8/08

    Posted on September 8, 2008 | No Comments
    StockTock.com discusses the market's dramatic price action and what it means for our short-term and medium-term outlook. We talk about how a trade's timeframe will dictate how we behave in the market. The SPY topped out at an interesting resistance point this morning. We identify all the important support and resistance levels for the the S&P. We also analyze the charts of QQQQ (NASDAQ 100), XLF (Financials), TNX (10-Year Treasury Yield), UUP (US Dollar Index), IWM (Small Caps), XHB (Homebuilders), and XRT (Retailers).

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