Elliot Wave
This post by Daneric40 has been promoted from StockTock Social. As always, we appreicate Dan for taking the time to share his analysis.
Primary Count:
Markets are consolidating for an eventual push above near term resistance areas in each index. A 5 wave move up would complete a giant double zig zag pattern
Secondary Count:
Markets are consolidating for a move DOWN to the lower end of the trading range (maybe 820). Markets may not have enough bullishness left to get over key resistance areas.
Commentary:
Yeah I know! I kinda called both sides! But for now I have to give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls. The fact is that there are a lot of indicators and indices and they are a bit in conflict at the moment. Some are bullish some are bearish.
This post by Daneric40 has been promoted from StockTock Social.
Primary count:
Today Green wave 2 traced out an ABC flat correction with the “C” leg as the end of day high. Downside should come soon tomorrow, if this is indeed the pattern.
Well 800 didn’t happen. I have learned in this market that you pick a target and subtract 10-15 SPX points and you’ll get your likely REAL target.
This post by Daneric40 has been promoted from StockTock Social.
Primary Count: SPX is in the end stages of a zig zag 5-3-5 move up from 741 low. 910 is the target before a significant pullback.
Alternate Count: SPX peaked late Friday at 897.
Second Alternate Count: SPX is headed to a higher target of 914-918 before a pullback and consolidation.
This post by Daneric40 has been promoted from StockTock Social.
Primary count:
Market is due for some correction/consolidation. Question, will that be healthy or hurtful? Gap exists back at 800. Bears are growling again I’m sure. Even a normal 50% correction back toward 800 of a huge move up is gonna feel like the end is coming again.
I feel that Friday was not capitulation. So I have to look at the waves through the lens of a permabear.
This post by Daneric40 has been promoted from StockTock Social.
I have labeled this wave as an extended wave per Elliott Wave Principle. It only makes sense. The wave performed what appears to be 3 series of “1 and ‘2″ waves in the mid to lower 800 range in an attempt to rescue the markets.
Once it failed, a swift move and whipsaws to the downside occur. These are the 3 and 4 waves playing out. Anyone that has followed my waves can see my Sept – Oct down waves labeled as an extended wave. They are somewhat predictable if they are labeled correctly.
This post by Daneric40 has been promoted from StockTock Social.
Primary Count:
Wave 3 of 5 is underway. Lets get to the numbers. I feel I have 4 solid pieces of evidence from different sources that point to the same near term target areas:
- The SPX trendlines. The market is now trying to get toward the lower trendline.
- S&P minis Futures. The minis are now striving for the lower trendline.
- The SPX blue wave 1 and 2 fibonnaci reference points for blue wave 3 down. Fib 1.5 target = 780. 1.618 = 772
- The SPX sub wave (red on chart) wave 1 and 2 of 3 Fibonnaci reference points. Fib 1.5 target = 773 1.618 = 768
This post by Daneric40 has been promoted from StockTock Social.
Primary Count:
- Wave 5 of 3 is underway with today having completed wave 1 of 5 of 3 down ending at 848.98. Wave 2 of 5 of 3 traced back up 49% from the wave 5 start point of 916.88. So wave 2 peaked at 882.29.
- Wave 3 of 5 of 3 started at the end of day and should follow through more tomorrow.
- Fibonacci expansions targets for wave 3 of 5 of 3 are 780 SPX for a 1.5 expansion ratio and 772 SPX for a 1.618 ratio. You can see this takes us right down to the 2002 lows. I expect this area will be hit if not fully by wave 3 then by the follow-on wave 5 of 5 of 3.
This post by Daneric40 has been promoted from StockTock Social. Dan thinks this wave c of wave 4 of 3 could extend above the pennant’s resistance. Something to keep in mind!
Primary Count:
Wave 4 of 3 is playing out as an “expanded flat”. This is a 3-3-5 wave structure in which wave B is so strong it establishes new lows, which it did. Wave C then typically expands 1.618 the amount of wave “A”. That would take the SPX to 1081 in a 5 wave move, perhaps grinding.
Alternate Count:
Wave 4 of 3 will play out as a “running flat”. This is a 3-3-5 wave structure in which wave B establishes new lows yet wave C is too weak to take out wave A highs. That would leave it ending somewhere less than 1007. I drew a trendline that may be a target if indeed this is whats playing out.
This post by Daneric40 has been promoted from StockTock Social.
Another horrible down day. Volume picking up, VIX ticking up. Has this decline from peak some kind of huge ABC correction or wave 5 of 3 down? It looks like wave 5 of 3 down. The reason is the wave structure and the sheer breadth of selling. Once again we have some clear areas marked on the structure. Fibonacci expansion ratios helps identify some potential near term downside targets. Even if this was an “ABC” structure, the downside targets apply equally as wave C can extend by the same ratios as wave 3.
Here is my S&P outlook over the next few weeks. I have also included an alternate scenario. Feedback welcomed.
I expect the market to continue trading in a consolidation pattern (a large pennant or triangle) for a number of weeks before breaking to the downside. I have included my Elliot Wave count in this chart, but the pennant formation with its series of one’s and two’s is more important. The ‘Rule of Four’ calls for a breakdown upon the fourth touch.
