Primary Count: Market indexes bottomed on a “D” wave today and reversed to begin its “E” wave back toward the 900 area.

Alternate Count: SPX continues to produce complex correctives prior to the plunge under 800 SPX.

30 Comments

EDIT 6PM, 5 Feb: As per Transform’s suggestion below in Comments, I too think this may be a 3-3-5 flat playing out in minute wave [ii] of 3 of (5).  I jsut seen it  and checked comments and sure enough someone else saw it too. I’ll post some charts later. That would imply the up correction is over.

EDIT 8:20 PM: I updated my commentary because I had time to chart some waves and I don’t want to confuse anyone however I left intact the reasons the market may go up Friday or Monday.  I also added 2 charts on the overall count.  My count has the move being over. However that would once again seem to fly in the face of market action.  And since the SPX still appears to be in corrective mode, and no hard evidence of a true impulse down again, therefore the correction may morph into something more complicated.

30 Comments

The top alternate Elliott Wave count is still the huge intermediate wave 4 triangle. This would imply that markets do not make new lows just yet. The subsequent E wave back to high 800’s area would likely be sparked by some kind of market intervening move by the PPT.

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Primary Count: Market has started Minute wave [iii]  of  Minor wave 3 of Intermediate wave 5 down to new lows.

Commentary. EWI mentioned something that I knew but haven’t talked about: All the world’s markets ( I always keep an eye on them) and indexes of various kinds are struggling to hold onto important levels.   Its reached the point where it is all slipping off the cliffside. The move lower should start tomorrow. I only post one chart today, you can look back on my past posts to get wave 5 down targets, I have talked about this many times. At the very least sub 740 must happen for this to be a valid intermediate wave 5.

12 Comments

The market corrected nicely today right into the target zone that I mapped out yesterday.  It hit resistance at 842.  The correction could be over. Here is the evidence:

1.) A valid ABC corrective has played out for the last 2 days.

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Primary Count: SPX is tracing out Minute wave {ii} of Minor wave 3 of Intermediate Wave (5)

I put the “ideal” retrace time for Minute wave {ii} to be about 10 hours.  That would suggest a peak tomorrow at around 1pm. I show that on my chart. It can of course deviate from the time as well as price targets.

26 Comments

This post by Daneric40 has been promoted from StockTock Social.

Primary Count:
Market finished tracing out wave 1 of intermediate wave 5 down from 944 peak. Wave 2 started up today at the 917 low. Wave 2 appears to be tracing a zig zag.

Commentary:
The gap is an inviting target for wave 2 as a minimum. From 867-871 it also coincides with 38% Fib retracement.

11 Comments

This post by Daneric40 has been promoted from StockTock Social.

Well turns out that wave 5 peaked yesterday of the second zig zag move from 741 low. Thats the problem with these zig zag moves, the upper portion channels wedgy and can fool you into thinking it has one more wave up. That is why I have learned to go short near the peak of wave 3.

We know it peaked because wave 4 couldn’t breech 884.63 (wave 1 price range). It did and by a mile so the 5 wave move up is over. Downside volume and breadth was not too terrible so its hard to say intermediate wave 4 is over just yet.

So what comes next?

5 Comments

This post by Daneric40 has been promoted from StockTock Social.

Primary Count:
SPX is tracing a 5 wave move in the second half of a zig zag of a double zig zag structure from 741 low. The 914.66 was a 1.711 expansion of wave 1 and landed in the solid resistance bands from 912-918. The move up has advanced 63% of the 100 point move in the first half of this zig zag. If C = A then your looking at 951. If C = 76% then 927. But resistance bands will determine the extent of the rally. If the market can hurdle over 918 resistance and use that as support, it could run all the way to 938-940. Either way the short term charts RSI/Stochs are screaming for a correction and even the 60 minute is nearing a short term high and due to correct.

2 Comments

This post by Daneric40 has been promoted from StockTock Social.

Primary Count:
Market heads higher Monday to continue finishing out the second half of the second zig zag in a double zig zag structure.

Could the last move up fail? Sure but it would take a jarring event to do it. The auto bankruptcy almost looked like it was going to tank the market real hard (futures did tank) but it recovered nicely. So all in all the zig zag structure is still in play.

4 Comments