Elliot Wave
We all know that the fundamentals are awful. The only thing that was keeping the market above Nov lows is because S&P and most world indices are above their Oct and Nov lows. Not any more.
As of Friday the 27th of Feb (end of the month also, a multi-year low on a weekly close has been confirmed. Confirmation of multi-year low on monthly charts will have to wait till end of March. Thus, the weekly charts gave a screaming sell on Friday. The dumping we saw today may be because of this.
Primary Count: The indexes are unfolding the last subwaves of Minor wave 3 of Intermediate wave (5).
Alternate Count: 3 of (5) made its low at 699.7.
UPDATE 9:30PM Friday: Forgot my 15 minute chart which shows a potential scary H&S forming.
Primary Wave Count: Markets have “setup” for a major plunge lower beginning Monday to futher extend wave 3 of (5).
Alternate Wave Count: Wave 3 of (5) is over or will shortly be after a minor washout come Monday.
Primary count has not changed. Wave [iv] of 3 of (5) appears to have indeed peaked. A deep retrace today but the 780 high held. Then a selloff and the market closed under 757 support.
Wave [iv] of 3 of (5) *appears* to be over. It could correct more sideways and of course I do not rule out a move higher than 779, its just that the waves don’t currently *suggest* that will happen.
Primary Count: SPX is tracing Minute wave [iv] of 3 of (5). The 38% retracement is 779.45 which has become, as Uner has pointed out, a very nice resistance area for the market.
UPDATE 8PM: I threw in an SPX chart. Its hypothetical of course but I kinda am looking for some kinda of massive falling wedge to develop to the bottom.
Wave 3 of (5) continues to unfold in an orderly fashion.
Not much time, just one quick chart. I adjusted my wave count as the wave keeps unfolding. Some very good Fibonacci in today’s NASDAQ low of 1386.86 that I have relabeled Minute wave [iii] of 3 of (5). That is within 1/10th of a point from an exact 1.618 expansion ratio of Minute wave [i] price move.
Primary Count: Market has bottomed on Minute wave [i] of Minor wave 3 of Intermediate wave (5) of Primary wave [1] of cycle wave C.
Alternate: Market is still working out the subdivisions of Minute wave [i] and will head lower before a significant bounce.
Primary Count: Indexes are on intermediate wave 5 down to new lows
Alternate Count: Indexes are tracing a huge triangle formation and a significant counterrally will start very soon. I don’t hold as much weight in this as I did last week. Any break of the DOW Nov lows (which it is close) would pretty much invalidate this triangle play for good…in theory anyway.
A few days late but I have the luxury of watching how futures played Monday. And they ended red at 808.75.
The market is struggling mightily in the lower third of the 800 region the last few days. The rally Thursday was not followed up on Friday with any conviction. Indeed futures have almost taken back 100% of that rally. The cash index SPX should follow.
