Market ended fairly ambiguous today, right in the middle of a number of significant points. On the monthly chart it ended between the 50ma and the 200ma, in between a descending channel from highs (1050s), in between the 38% and 50% retrace of the last major fall, below a 3 day ascending trend line, but below a 1 day trend line. It is also sitting in between the 38% and 50% retrace of the rise from the 1057 area. How is THAT for fun?

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So you can only chart and analyze so much. Ok that’s not true, you can seriously chart for hours without end. However, sometimes it’s not so much about where we are, but how we got here. So if and when P3 hits, I wanted to make sure that the proper people were thanked for the money that the bearish traders will make in this secular bear market. This is still a work in progress and there are many more people and groups that need to be thanked. Feel free to add commentary, to disagree, to be angry, or to add your own thanks. There may be more bullishness to come, or maybe P3 has already started, but let’s try and learn from and enjoy the journey!

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3:04pm
Idan: Gold has finally reached my target today, i’m taking a sizable chunk short GLD here, some of my friends bought some DZZ around the $12 area. The SPY is forming a high base, for another potential last shoot higher… that’s where you place more shorts… I do believe we will see the SPY start to correct by the beginning of next week.

Woo:

Market is up a good amount in futures. That takes us above that pink trend line. The pink trend line was never really that strong. I’m expecting the 50ma and 200ma to cross soon on this 5 minute chart. We could just see a rise up to the 1115 area on Wednesday, but we might see a slight rise, and then a dip to meet the 50/200ma.

That trend line above the pink trend line is high enough that we really could see that 1122 number by tomorrow, or even the day after. If you are bear you have to be willing to hold through a rise to 1122 over the course of the next 5 trading days or so. We’ll see if we dip once more before hitting 1122.

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Nice run up today. The futures are down a bit, but the pink trend line above the 5 minute 50ma is not that strong a trend line, and I am leaning more towards a rise into the first 2-3 hours of the morning to the 1115 area. I would consider the 1115 area a good short term short/put position, but we’re so close to the possible top of P2 that it might be better just to wait out the market action and stick to individual stocks that are overbought or showing more secure long term trend line/fib hits.

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Idan:
10.10am I really like AXP short here, I think it’s reached it’s long potential, and while it might try and reach 42.50-43… i’m okay with taking a swing trade to the short side here as I believe the market in general is toppy. Also my target for GLD is around 105.60-106… might be worth starting to look at the downside here.

Woo:

Futures are up a good amount. We’re above the fib of 1098 in the futures, but we’ll see if we stay that way into open

1 month chart:

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Idan

My Target for GLD remains around  155.6-116 in the short term, I believe we could see a nice correction once we hit around those levels… That’s where my fib projections take me.

Dow Jones Daily: I said i would play the megaphone formation… well here we go… I bought DXD at 30.32 today.

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4:30 pm update:

So we stopped at the next bit of fibs at EOD. the reason why i recommended pulling out half profits at 1096 is because there is still a chance that we could drop. this way you lock in profits, and if it falls, you can buy back in, but if it rises, you still have a good position on a decent number of shares. On an opex week friday, there’s too much risk, and decay will affect even december options strongly.

Original post:

Looks like the market is going to open lower. Will have to see exactly where it opens to see if we’ve had any real significant places broken or not. Top action is always a little more difficult to make short term scalps off of unless you’re really careful.

trend line at 1102 needs to break.

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3:08pm
Idan: The market seems to be trading in a large triangle formation on the 10 minute SPY. But in the last 10 minutes it is trying to break out for another push higher. While I think the market still has another potential 1-1.5% higher, I think AMZN is a short at these levels for a swing trade, and that AXP might see another 0.5%-1.5% higher and then probably fall between 5-10%.  Trade, Go long SPY, Go short AMZN, AXP (hedged).

Futures are pretty flat. So far market is still bullish. need a lot of breakdown for the bears to really gain any ground.

1 month:

trend line is holding and it looks like 1115 is the short term top to watch prior to the 1122 top on the 5 minute. the only drop i would be looking for (if any happens at all), is one to 1096, but it isn’t necessary.

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3:35 pm update:

Is it just me or does 1115 look like a good place for the SPX to head to short term? trend line is holding. we’ll see how the last 30 minutes of the market acts.

Original Post:

So looks like the market is back within the channel. I’m thinking that we could possibly drop back south towards the light blue line on the monthly, and maybe even the 61.8% fib projection around 1098 on SPX. Futures are down a bit as expected after not rising enough above the intraday trend line that is pretty easy to see (I haven’t drawn it in). I would still consider grabbing a call position if the 1098 area hits. I would be careful if we drop below 1098 and place stops there on any call or long positions entered around there. the 200ma is also sitting there.

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2:05pm
Woo: There was also a small flare down to about 111 on the SPY that hasn’t played out on the 5minute chart. So that short position that Idan is talking about may be a good idea. Looking at a minimum 7 points or so drop here. Could also see a potential drop to 1098 for a trend line and fib projection hit.

1:50pm
Idan: I am looking for another potential move up here to go short… the Dow Jones has hit it’s 50% retracement of the bear market, and I believe if i can go short at 112-113 on the SPY i’ll be rewarded with another 5-20% move to the downside.

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Original post by Woo:

So the market is back north of a the November monthly trend line, and futures are up a good amount. I’m still leaning towards this going up into new highs as I’ve been saying for a while now.

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