So why am I being so bold at trying to pick a turn near here for a pop? Well, the charts say it may happen. Somewhere between $8.50 and $9 should work for the pop. There is some fib confluence and resistance in that area. This move may carry price to the old upper trendline, 38% fib and $8.50 near the end of June. I don’t necessarily like the call, but as Craig always said, “Trust the charts.”

UNG Daily Chart

So what is in the charts that has me looking at this move? Several things including the possibility of some enticing events in the weekly indicators. Mainly the divergences and oversold conditions on the daily chart resemble the last three bottoms that caused pops (follow the green vertical lines). I’m not going to go into a lot of detail because the chart should be pretty self explanatory. Just see the similarities in the bottoms marked.

How would I trade it? Well with that nice bullish candle set today I would watch it closely on my 30m chart. There are some nice divergences there and a crack of the 65ma should warrant the first nibble and also the place to set stops. A 20/50 bull cross on the 60m chart would be a nice place to stick it all the way in. When price hits the 65ma on the daily chart, I’d pull out. I have considered the gaps up to $9.50 (and that used to be a pop target), but the position of the daily 65ma and the relative weakness of UNG has me lowering the target.

Good luck with it if it should happen. It may take some more time to materialize (if it ever does). This is just a possibility and something I think you should keep an eye on. Remember to always have a set plan for a trade. Always set stops. Never be afraid to exit a losing trade and live to fight again another day.

Here is a link to all my UNG and Natgas charts in my chartbook. I chart UNG on 30m thru weekly time frames. Scroll thru the charts anytime you like.

Here is a link to my blog where you can find past UNG posts that have been pretty accurate. I have not called a bull move in the clear gas since the last low. I also forecasted, like here, a pop then further weakness. Lets see if I can get the call right again (I’m more worried about prognosticating the pop than the drop.

Good luck!

The trend is UP. No one can question that (you can question fundamentals and why the heck it is up all you want – I sure do). I am a firm believer in market manipulation and until something really bad happens “they” will continue to take every advantage they have to run this puppy up, up, up with no regard for the consequences to the broader public. The low volume ramp jobs will continue till something stops them. Get used to it. As long as there is a an extremely lose monetary policy, tons of QE money, rates are low, accounting gimmicks (that is being nice) and a total lack of regulation there are few headwinds for this market.

This is not a normal market. As a trader you have to play current momentum and leave the big picture out of it. If it is not within arms reach, don’t try to touch it. Use your indicators and play the trend. Do not try to fight it. Even if you think the world is heading into some massive depression with all sorts of really bad things to come (like I do), that does not matter to your trading this week. If the trend is up, play it that way till the trend turns. Keep your stops tight and be nimble. Think this week only, not next week or next year. Arms reach.

Weekly Indicator Chart

Looking at the TA in the chart, SPX has taken out it’s upper bear market TL (I think this will come into play a lot on the way down and it will take an impulsive 3rd wave to get back under it). I have tageted the 1215 to 1220 area for some time as a possible ultimate top (at this time I do not think it gets there – I’m currently looking for a double top in the 1150 area). This area has the 200ma at 1226, the gap near 1210, the 61.8% retracement at 1229 and finally the C=A fib at 1214 (at this time I am not prescribing to the H&S target some are calling for in the 1295 area). The two TA forms I am entertaining (both are in their final phases) are the ABC corrective or the A-E rising wedge formation.

Now, this chart will not time the ST moves I discussed earlier. This is a bigger momo indicator. This chart will miss the perfect top, but it will identify/confirm the true top when it hits., thus the final trend change from up to down (and down it will go – I’m speculating lower lows).

A monthly chart can be found here. I think the RSI5 has topped on it, but it really needs some help getting rolled over. This may signal some more upside or at least churning to a top.

Good luck to all. Let me know if you have any questions.

ESU9 Channel cracking

OK, The channel is plain as day. After the/ES put in a PERFECT double top at 1038.75 is the correction upon us? Finally a break of the lower tendline. Not confirmed of close under trendline, but a potential sign of weakness. Note the red trendlines above and below. These are the 50% and 75% trendlines of the larger channel off of the 667 low. They have been acting as nice buffers as can be seen in the chart.

If this is the start of 2 of C retracements are 1019 to 1009. Look for a wedge or triangle to form. I would not be surprised to see 1000 tested.

Shanky

http://shankystechblog.blogspot.com/

A simple glance at the weekly indicators combined with the P/E multiples of the SPX (and the plethora of other financial and economic  issues) and you get that dizzy feeling like you are standing on a girder about 1,000 feet up with no safety rope or net. All it will take is one stiff wind and you are toast.

So Shanky, what’s the problem? Why can’t you figure out which way we should go? Well, GS and the Fed and the Treasury and our government are the problem. You see the reflation trade has been blowing smoke up this economy’s butt for over a year now and has created nothing but optimism of a V shaped recovery. This is what you firmly believe if you are  a CNBS disciple., yet that is not reality IMO.The TARP funds have been nothing but a prop for the still IMO insolvent banks. The TARP funds were a waste of good money being thrown down the rabbit hole of economic fantasy.

Why bother to reflate the bubble that got you all of the problems in the first place? So the insolvent banks can put on a pump and dump and take all your money so they can survive. Who gives a shit about you or your future, you little worm undisciplined ignorant investor? The banks are the big boys and they need to survive. You dear investor are an expendable asset in this shell game.

IMO America has been taken to the bank by first Paulson and his fear mongering and second Bernanke, Timmay and the administration.  Here is the deal and Karl Denninger at The Market Ticker loves to harp on this.  The banks made the bad loans and are not having to pay the price – YOU ARE. You can’t have it both ways. You can’t take from the poor and give to the rich and make it work. You see the consumer is 70% of GDP and without the consumer having jobs, credit, savings and some sort of manageable debt ratio, it all fails. You see, they sucked us all in (well most of us) to the cheap credit must own a home inflated bullshit rape of American wealth. Did they give a shit about you or me. Hell no! This is where fractional reserve lending comes in.

In Ron Paul’s absolutely must read End The Fed you get to know the history of the Fed, fractional reserve lending and how and why we got where we are today. You see those greedy mofo’s wanted it all. They wanted to die with the most toys and win the game. Problem is the game is still going. They screwed the game for everyone and now YOUR government is basically siding with the banksters and saving their collective asses and leaving us out to dry.

This is bullshit and leads us back to why P3 will happen and any other count is a bunch of crap. The pump and dump is nearing an end. P/E multiples are exponentially high. Insider sells are at a 95 to 5 ratio. 40% of mortgages are underwater, CRE will crash, unemployment will continue to grow and is not being factually reported, the consumer is dead, blah, blah, blah and CNBS will lead you to believe the Haynes bottom is in and a V shaped recovery is all but guaranteed. WAKE UP SHEEPLE! You dear reader/investor have to make a choice here and soon. Do you feel lucky? Will the manipulators carry out the scam of 1,000 years and continue the HFT front running and market prop to even further unsustainable heights or does it turn here? Is this P3 or P2? We’ll know in a week or so which count is right.

Sorry I can’t answer the question for you, but I have done really well siding with the manipulators. I still believe we are in P2 and have one more leg up to C. Maybe the mutual funds have enough in them to get one more good QE statement out of the market. Maybe there are a few more upgrades left or GS will create a new “super buy” recommendation to garner a little more room for further upgrades. Maybe Ben will trump the dollar down to complete its wave count one last time. I have wanted a 1050 to 1121 top in early October, so I will stick to the call. BUT I will also be playing it as the market top is in. I am not playing this or any speculated run up. I am short in SDS at this time and looking to add to shorts. I do have a plan and stops in place if the trade should go bad, but I will not chase this move any higher at this time.

GL trading,

Shanky

Please visit my blog if you like.  Click here to go to Shanky’s blog

1) Up scenario – are we in a 5 wave corrective move up? The count looks good and places the target price in the yellow box between 76 and 86. A price of 78 completes a 38% retracement of the whole fall from 147. The indicators seem to favor further strength. RSI is taking out a trendline and moving thru 50, MACD appears to be getting a bull cross on and S Sto is headed up. All have plenty of room to run.

2) Down scenario – completed a near perfectly measured ABC corrective move stopping just short of a 38% retracement. Crossed under the 30 and 45 ma’s that have tracked the price so well thru this chart. Look at the 147 top and see what happened the last time these two ma’s crossed. Well, $WTIC is trading under these two ma’s and they appear to be headed for the bear cross. After $WTIC broke the lower channel line, it has come back like a champ for the backtest of the trendline and should meet resistance from the 30 and 45 ma’s.

Two pretty good cases I’d say. Stuck in the middle I’d say. Hard to lean on any further strength given global demand and over supply. Hard to go against prices continuing to climb given the price demands from foreign countries relying desperately on higher priced oil (that was a nice way of avoiding price manipulation discussion but still including it).

The indicators do not favor a further move south, so I am going for option 1 with oil shooting for the target box. Then it can crash cause the price per barrel is total bullshit anyway. Back on July 8th I did a post $20 Per Barrel Of Oil?. I suggest you review this wonderfully article laden post on oil price manipulation. Folks, we’re talking more than the price of a commodity here. Governments live and die on the price of this stuff and it effects your cash as well.

I have two preferred quotes from that spectacular blog post. From the WSJ article, ” “In Washington, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the main U.S. futures-market regulator, said it is considering tougher regulation of oil-futures markets. The proposed rules, which drew immediate criticism from traders, would seek to curb the influence of speculative investors such as hedge funds and investment banks by limiting how much money any single trader can bet on any one commodity at a time.” OK, for those that there really is not any price manipulation going on, they are just trading the shit out of it and where the chips fall they fall – LOL – Bullshit I say.

And the best was from Naked Cap with Verlerger on Oil Glut: “There has never been anything like it”. “For eight straight months, oil supplies have been running about 2 million barrels a day higher than the global demand of 83 million barrels a day, Verleger said. Eventually, he and others predicted, suppliers will tire of paying to store all of the surplus oil and flood the market. “That is the largest and longest continuous glut of supply that I have seen in 30 years of following energy prices,” Verleger said. “It’s a huge surplus. There has never been anything like it.”
Anyone care to do the math on that?

So we go up then down or just straight down? You tell me. You know I am in the if you can’t beat ‘em join ‘em camp. (I’m really gonna follow the indicators north till they turn then I will get short unless further weakness happens here – look for the target box)

Thanks for the views and GL trading,

Shanky

CHART IS BEST VIEWED HERE: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3186525&cmd=show[s171380322]&disp=P

http://shankystechblog.blogspot.com/

Well, here is a little more versed shot at why we have a minor correction here before further weakness.

Notes are in the chart. Here goes – The ABC move off of 956 to here is complete. A=C. The yellow fib in the chart is the measurement. The C leg of the C leg measures .618 of the A leg of the C leg, so it can be technically complete. 60m indicators are all turning north from a short embedded stint. The red and black trendlines I believe are solid and were meant to hold this fall. There is another way of looking at the red falling wedge that may be breaking out. It could also play as an A-E count with a truncated E. That pattern would be completed as well or will be with another touch of the lower trendline. The steepness of the fall and some recent candle action are assisting the call. The 60m VIX looks to be turning as well.

Again, I will note that the dailys and weeklys are not ready for any major turn, so this call may be premature, but I am only looking to the fib retracements at the 900 to 902 level for the bounce. If I miss this call, then I got too good at reading manipulated markets and need to brush up on some real TA. Maybe GS has lost their touch since the cat got out of the bag with their proprietary market manipulation software. If that is the case, I’ll surely be wrong.

On another note, I have gotten some comments and emails on the upcoming earnings season. My thoughts are mixed. First, the analysts are part of the game. They are in it to sell you something. If you are not buying then they don’t make as much money. Second, the banks earnings will miss at some point, just not sure when. The manipulated bullshit that happened at the end of last year where they decided to just exclude a month of earnings will come back to bite them in the butt eventually. When is the question. Thus I have mixed views on how earnings will be. Rightfully so they should suck. How any retailer is still above water is beyond comprehension.

GL trading and thanks for the views and comments.

I even think I put the chart in right this time!

Thanks for your views and comments. GL trading!

http://shankystechblog.blogspot.com/

GL trading. http://shankystechblog.blogspot.com/

Weekly -

/ES Weekly

Daily -

/ES Daily

60m SPX

SPX 60m

UPDATE –

5m chart

UP Case – Bounced off lower BB, got golden cross, daily RSI takes out trendline and headed up (must get thru 50), S TO at bottom (can embed), MACD Hist turning up, possibly just completed and ABC corrective, possibly just had an A-E falling wedge throwunder. P2 is not over and there is more upside. (NOTE – 60m are rolling over right now).

Down Case – Economy sucks and we got a bunch of crooks running the show (the crooks part can work for both up and down scenarios), we are in wave 2.1.1.3 of P3 headed to hell in a hand basket courtesy of your government’s lack of oversight and gratuitous credit allotment, the weekly indicators are topping and giving signals across the board we’re going south, PE ratios in the stratosphere, 30% + move without significant correction, the monthly indicators are starting to show signs of topping…… and have you seen the yearly indicators?

In my blog I am on record for thinking there is more upside before the crash in Q4 or Q1, but I am also holding that it is just fine if we crash here. Here is my post from last week on my thoughts on overall direction and possibilities.

http://shankystechblog.blogspot.com/2009/06/shankys-state-of-charts-post_18.html

IF THE CHART LINK DOES NOT WORK (I screwed it up somehow) GO HERE:

http://shankystechblog.blogspot.com/2009/06/ok-notes-are-on-chart-but-ill-try-to.html

Summary – not sure how it is gonna work, but I’m looking for more upside before a fall to 847ish. I do not think the 956 top is in jeopardy at all. I have to go with the daily indicators bottoming out and the ABC or A-E wedge completing. At this time the weeklys are topping. I think the dailys make one more push up and then we fall more significantly. It can go either way from here though (thus I am long and short 10% looking to add when direction is made clear). With Ben speaking later today he’ll move the market one way or the other. He’s focused on the bond market right now. He can’t let the yield curve get away from him, so he’ll say whatever is necessary to move it in his favor. If you actually think someone on the hill is gonna tell the truth you are on drugs and need serious help. GS, MS and JPM will come in to manipulate the markets as necessary. Here is a good post I found the other day on the PPT. Good read and check out the source of the article. Scroll about halfway down till you see Moral Hazard and More on manipulation and a shadowy group called the CRMPG. http://www.nowandfutures.com/false_data.html

GL Trading.

My charbook on Stockcharts is here: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3186525

All the ingredients appear to be in place for the fall. 30%+ rise off bottom, P/E overvalued, banks have completed pump ‘n dump, dollar bottomed, 10yr treas moving up, Dan and K’s counts appear to be there (or near), and on and on, but mainly the emotional aspect appears to be in place. We’ve been faked out many times on this move up, so I will cautiously approach this move. I really want to see the VIX daily RSI take out its trendline and the weekly SPX RSI fall below its trendline.

 Here are my two indicator charts for your viewing pleasure. These are always in my chartbook and remain updated at all times. If you like to visit and use them you must leave a vote for me on the stockcharts front page. Thanks in advance.

Charts are massive and don’t view well here, so follow the links below.

Daily Chart Link-

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3186525&cmd=show[s165700978]&disp=P

Weekly Chart Link -

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3186525&cmd=show[s165701390]&disp=P

 GK trading,

Shanky

Le Blog – http://shankystechblog.blogspot.com/

Below is a LT chart of SPX. The channel drawn includes the 25, 50 and 75% lines. Please notice the last time we touched the bottom of the channel was in 1942.

Bottom Option 1) The blue dashed line has acted as the major lower trendline since 1942. What is significant about this line is where it ends – currently at the bottom of the lower Bollinger Band (BB)near SPX 574. A reversion to this line is more probable IMO for various obvious reasons. A 61.8% retracement from the 1932 low to the 2007 high is near 604 SPX. This blue dashed line is my current market bottom target (600 – 575 for rounding sake).

Bottom Option 2) The black dashed line nicely dissects the chart. It was the markets upper trendline till the breakout in 1985 and the bull market that ensued. I believe a reversion to test this trendline is vary possible. This is my secondary bottom target.

Bottom Option 3 & 4) The 75% and lower channel trendlines are severe circumstance targets. The LT channel should revert to its lower trendline eventually and if P3 is as severe as everyone is predicting I would not be surprised to see either of these tested. The 75% line has good historical support from 1994 – 95 at 475 SPX.

Bottom Option 5) We bottomed. About the only thing I see bullish here is the monthly 200ma (moving average)has also acted as support thru the years. Its violation in 1974 where it broke down, recovered and then acted as support for the next several years looks similar to today’s action. The ensuing flat market where the 200ma acted as support thru 1982 might be expected if the preferred ideas of further market weakness does not materialize.

Above is the same monthly chart of SPX going back to 1996. Several things to point out here. You can see where the LT channel lines come into play better. As you notice we are flirting with the 50% line now running around 850. Remember, this is the 50% line of a channel running back over 80 years. I like this as the pullback target for the correction of P2 (or the near term correction of this bull run) and possibly as a good support line for further action as it will interact with the 200ma later this year. Also notice the support resistance line at 954 going back thru 1997. This line (and the surrounding area) has had several major hits. I expect it to hold as resistance here, but if it does not a move higher to 1000 to 1050 is expected. Also notice the monthly 200ma is at 1010. As noted above, if this cracks and we play out like ’74 then we possibly track it for several years as in the 70′s. When does it all end? Notice the diagonal trendlines on RSI and STO indicators and SPX’s action with its 20ma. When all these cross it will be over IMO.

So, I am expecting a top around 954. A pullback to 850. A run up to 1021 – 1055 and then the pullback to 600 – 575 or worse. As for time frames for all of these actions, my best guess is that we have the correction to 850 soon then finish the year strong. At that time earnings manipulation and green shoot hysteria will catch up with everyone and Alt – A loans, commercial real estate, higher commodity prices, unemployment, credit issues, bank failures, possible dollar collapse, etc… will bubble over.

Don’t get caught up waiting on the downside action. The green shoot BS and the blatant market manipulation should not be ignored and you need to trade the trend and the trend is up now. Do not ignore the near term positive news. Be patient and wait on the impending correction.

http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/pimcos-gross-boom-times/ Pimco’s Gross: Boom Times Are Over</a> is a good article. Bill thinks, “Gross also said, with certainty, that the dollar will lose its reserve status. “We simply have too much debt,” he said.” When that happens my first 4 bottoming scenarios come into play.

As I have noted, I am trading the 60m indicators when they hit their extremes both up and down with tight stops (Some of my charts have buy and sell lines in my chartbook). I am avoiding like all hell the 3x ETFs except for some day trades, but I rarely swing trade the 3x.

GL trading.

This post can be found at my blog. the charts work better there. If someone on the team would like to edit this and make the charts more user friendly please do so. Still a novice here at the tech side.

http://shankystechblog.blogspot.com/