Several times I mentioned here that I follow Jesse’e Cafe American blog.  Jesse is an experienced trader who has proven to be more right than wrong on both sides of the trade.  Here made these astute observations in his blog entries today.

1. This rally is looking increasingly artificial and led by buying in the SP futures, which was the trademark intervention established when Robert Rubin was Treasury Secretary.  This does not mean it cannot go higher, as the markets are awash in liquidity with no productive outlets that can compete with the easy returns of the hot money speculation machine.  It does imply that on news this rally could turn lower with some serious momentum.  ….. For now this rebound in US equities a slow short squeeze probably led by the momentum traders and by the bankers who met with Obama at the White House. We’ll know more when Obama produces the details of his discussions with them in keeping with the transparency he has promised. Or are the bankers to Obama what the oil companies were to Cheney? [Link]
2. The major source of profit for Goldman Sachs was from speculative trading. There will be no recovery in the real economy until the financial system is reformed and banks are restrained into productive functions within our society. [Link]
   

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Would have been shorting all the levered fund, especially the 3-x Direxion. Duh! Probably too late now. But If you shorted or, better yet,  bought deep out of money April puts for April on FAS and FAZ and held on to them till today, you would have done so much better than the market.

Since Jan 1st of this year, FAS went from 25 to 9.5 today;

And FAZ went from 38 to under 10 today.

5 Comments

Monday, April 13, 2009

• 8:30am Earnings Before the Open: TLB.
• 10:30am Fed coupon purchase
• Note that European markets are closed for Easter Monday.
• 4:00pm Earnings After the Close: JBHT, RNOW.

47 Comments

First of all, despite being able to predict the selling into early March, I had been burnt badly by being in levered bear funds in the recent bull surge. My money management sucked, big time! And then there are powers that be who finally got some control of the situation. The people in the know got the plan transmitted to them well ahead of the rest of the investment public. However, when Citi said they were “profitable” thru Feb, it is a big clue for the public (and the bears.) Like many, I was too slow to react. In one of the relies I mentioned that S&P may have another hit at the upper BB before retreating. That scenario is looking more likely now. I will post my useless thoughts on the market as a whole later.  But for now, I would like to present my useful take on APOL.

34 Comments

There is a difference between a correction in a bear market, and a new bull market. I cannot see a new bull market launchng from here. This fall from the end of 2007 has been too severe and there has been too much techincal damage. I think we are in wave 2 up of this bear market, though I am open to the idea this is wave 4 up. Either way, I anticpate new lows ahead of us that should take the S&P under $400. This is my opinion based on the charts. Enjoy and play the correction over the next several weeks or even months, but see it for what it is, a bear market rally!

101 Comments

Monday, April 06, 2009

• 10:00am TAF auction
• 11:00am Treasury’s note announcement
• BoJ rate decision. Defense Sec Gates to announce 2010 US DoD budget.
• ING EMEA Financials Conference.
• Hart Energy Gas Conference.
• Merrill Lynch Emerging Gold Producers Conference.
• 4:00pm Earnings After the Close: APOG, BLUD.

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Congress wagged a finger at FASB and said, “You shall change the mark to market rules.”

FASB may say yes to Congress tomorrow (April 2) and help banks “boost” their profits by 20% out of thin air.

35 Comments

Daniel Hannan speaking truth at British Prime Minister Gordon Brown:
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94lW6Y4tBXs[/youtube]

I wish there more straight talking politicians like Daniel Hannan in Washington! The clip has become a YouTube sensation.

11 Comments

Monday, March 30, 2009

• 8:30am Earnings Before the Open: CALM, LAYN, PRSC.
• 10:30am March Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity (last -57.3%).
• Obama administration to announce auto industry viability plan.
• Brean Murray Global Resources & Infrastructure Conference.
• Platts Wind Power Conference.
• 4:00pm Earnings After the Close: OXM.

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Monday, March 23, 2009
8:30am Earnings Before the Open: PRSC, TIF, WAG.
10:00am TAF auction. Feb Existing Home Sales (last 4.49M, m/m -5.3%)
10:00am Fed’s Rosengren testifies before Congress.
Bank of America Small Mid Cap Conference.
Howard Weil Energy Conference.
Merrill Lynch Sun City 1-on-1 Conference.

21 Comments