We discuss today’s move higher, led by a monster rally in financials. These type of rallies are typical of bear markets and should not be trusted until we see confirmation. We look at what this market needs to do to confirm a bottom has been put in. Tomorrow, we hear earnings from BLK, JPM, GOOG, IBM, and MER.

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4:00pm
Stay tuned for today’s video.

3:25pm
ES at fresh session highs at 1240. Remember the 1245 resistance level. XLF trying to take out 19 as we approach 3:30.

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We discuss today’s action and the disappointing late-day selloff that makes us question whether a bottom is in. The financials continue to struggle, and the top in oil we called for appears to be coming to fruition. We also touch on the VIX, USO, GS, MER, and C.

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3:49pm
Remember, INTC reports after the close today. Usually, they report between 4:10 and 4:15pm.

3:44pm
ES has moved lower into its 50 moving average at 1219.

3:30pm
Double top formation on the ES.

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We discuss the continued bearish action today as the financials tumble lower. The market is acting helpless and the VIX remains stubbornly below 30. Oil traded flat despite a weaker dollar. It may be forming an M top pattern. We look at important support and resistance levels to watch for the rest of this options expiration week. We also touch on NCC, WM, and LEH.

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Today, Tomorrow, and the Next

Monday, was a classic gap n’ crap, as they call it on Wall Street. The market gapped higher on news that the government will support FRE and FNM. But the market could not hold its gains, led lower by the same old culprit, the financial sector. The SPX closed at a new 52-wk low at 1228. The ES found resistance at the same declining trendline that has thwarted the previous 4 rally attempts.

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4:31pm
Ugly close today near the lows of the session. Financials cannot catch a bid. Stay tuned for today’s video. Due to a scheduling conflict, today’s video will be posted after 8pm tonight. Sorry for the inconvenience.

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We discuss the fascinating session today, from both a trading and historical perspective. We want traders to be cautious here. We expect a bounce in the short-term, but we want to wait for capitulation and confirmation that a bottom is in before we try to play this market from the long side. We look at a possible M top pattern in oil, the dollar’s weakness, mind boggling trading in FRE & FNM, and support levels on QQQQ and GS. Have a great weekend, everyone.

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4:04pm
This was not the kind of close I wanted to see to setup a rally next week. Although there is a nice tail on the daily candle, it was still another new closing low. Stay tuned for today’s video and have a great weekend.

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Today, Tomorrow, and the Next

Thursday, the S&P managed a rally of more than 8 points despite continued weakness in financials and a considerable spike in the price of oil. The SPX closed at 1253.39, marking the 2nd consecutive close below the Bear Stearn’s intraday low of 1257. Technically, this confirms a breakdown to new lows, however, today’s candle did close positive and near the top of the day’s range, so it is not the most reliable of confirmation candles. This makes tomorrow’s close all the more important. Thursday’s action formed a W pattern, and it remains to be seen whether Friday can produce a V rally.

Friday,

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