POLL OF THE DAY  - Your trading preference!

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Happy New Year to everyone… will be taken the rest of the day off

10:00am
GS is trading over 150.. .this is the time to be buying goldman and put a stop below the gap fill in the 149.00s… makes a lot of sense to be buying this.

9:38am
SPY breaking out of that descending channel (depending how you drew it) but it’s going to deal with the 200 SMA daily now again… and if it breaks that we have the neckline of the inverse H&S formation at 113.00-113.50

9:32am
Have you guys ever thought of the gold daily chart as a massive ascending wedge? Well my guess is that we get a bubble like rally above the resistance of the wedge only to finally crash down and start really breaking down on gold. But for now i’m bullish:

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1.54 PM

Tze

Guys, come to the FocalEquity Social. Just log in and click on FEED. We can discuss trades over there. You don’t have to always comment on the Intraday. look forward to seeing your comments there. Again, Woo and I discussed and bought GDX and TZA just now…

1.47 PM

Tze

Discussed with Woo. I went ahead and bought GDX and TZA. We expect GDX to break to the north $55. TZA is the best out of all the short leveraged ETFs right now. We will see what happens.

11:00am
GS getting closer and closer to that $150 mark. We know that the first hit will probably form very strong resistance and could be a good place to go short. But if it hangs out around the 148-150 range for a while, it would form a high base and a potential break out of $150. I want to be buying any highbase around $150:

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Poll of the day – Our New Social —————————————————————>

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Idan Koren
3:49pm
Oh oh, we might have a bermuda triangle (flag – pennant formation) on Visa, symbol: V on the daily chart.  A break of $70 could be disastrous. Your thoughts?

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Enjoy your Labor Day Holiday. Tomorrow we will launch our new social interaction on the site. FocalEquity Social will change completely… make sure to check it out!!

Post any thoughts below!

Do you prefer trading stocks or leveraged ETFs?

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Yes, the market feels very bullish at the moment. Price action is strong. M&A activity is picking up. Data was better than expected the past couple weeks: GDP, unemployment, manufacturing activity, consumer confidence. A few minutes ago, the Hindenburg Omen guy just told CNBC he would not be short now until the McClellan Oscillator goes negative (I think he is still bearish though).

But beware.  The volume has been lackluster during this recent rally. The market internals were extreme during selloffs and less impressive during rallies. And the wave counts just don’t support the bulls. Even the most bullish count has the market in a triangle, suggesting a C-wave flush lower (see DanEric’s chart). I’ll try to find another bullish count that supports upside from here but I don’t see it yet. Some bulls are heralding Primary [3] up but the shallow retracement (<32.8%) and time aspect makes me skeptical (Primary [1] = 59 weeks, Primary [2] = 10 weeks).

And look at today’s perfect trendline hit in the S&P. Doesn’t everyone feel good about the economy heading into the holiday weekend? This price run up is typical ahead of holiday weekends so consumers spend more money. But do you really want to be buying this market right here? Even if you’re a permabull, why not wait for a break and back-test of this trendline?

S&P Daily

S&P Futures 4-hour Chart (notice the overbought RSI reading)

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Poll of the day – How are you trading gold? Leave your comments below as well!

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1:50pm
A UNG breakout of $6.50 might be a potential bottom for UNG.. it’s not a long term bottom, but might help UNG go back into  7s. Here’s the 1 hour chart, showing how strong the 6.5 resistance is:

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Today was one of those days where you just stare at the chart and wonder what the heck went wrong. It’s the type of day where you think of all the time and effort that went into your counts only to have them rendered useless in one swift updraft of buying. One commenter called EWT useless after today’s move. How tempting it is to throw in the towel and agree that EWT is just too darn fallible.

Regardless of your opinion on this, admit it was interesting that exactly when the S&P violated the Minuette (iv) CANNOT CROSS line, the market exploded higher on strong volume. Looks like too many people were on one side of the trade and there was a mass exodus out of the short camp. I repositioned my trading account to a neutral state until I figured out what the heck was going on. When the market does something you don’t expect, you must get smaller and reevaluate the situation.

After some reflection, here are my thoughts. This is the type of post that gets readers annoyed and even angry. I cringe just hitting the Publish button because I know  most people will say I’m ignoring the price action and simply using creativity to find a count that fits my stubborn outlook. If there was one day in the past 3 years that I have been tempted to turn bullish, it was today. And that is why I know it’s time to be more bearish than ever.

This count is borrowed from DanEric who is a stubborn Bear just like me. It shows Minute [i] finishing shy of its 1010 target, sporting an extended fifth wave. Sure, it’s not ideal, but it’s a valid wave count with no rule violations. According to Prechter, corrections after extended fifth waves usually complete near wave two of lesser degree. Well, that’s pretty much where we are now indicating Minute [ii] is just about done. This target lines up pretty well with the 50% retracement too.

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Find out which is the 2nd most overbought stock here

1:08pm
It looks like we could have a reversal in the EUR/USD forex as the dollar is strengthening. to confirm a true reversal, we need to see 1.2795 breakdown, and then a new low below that of 1.278.

12:08pm
The bears have not really showed any conviction yet, this does give the bulls another chance to shove us higher… right now, no reason to short this market at all. I’d rather stay on the sidelines or buy on any small dip in individual stocks.

11:06am
One of the most overbought stocks in the market RIGHT NOW is … CRM. If you look at the weekly chart below you will see why. Alerts & Analytics has it’s reasons for taking it short, if you want to join in, you might consider an october put spread.  The chart is below.

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3:00pm
Eur/Usd charts have been really helpful in predicting SPY movement. Whenever Euro gets stronger (Eur/Usd up) then the SPY is likely to follow, the same for the opposite. Eur/USD showed a lot of strength before this rally… now it looks like it’s getting weaker, and possibly got it’s H&S formation on the 1 min:

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