Internals suggest that the usual market participants had better things to do today. Only 709 million NYSE shares were traded today, surely one of the slowest trading days of the year. When you combine this with the price action it lends itself more to the triangle alternate count I mentioned yesterday. With Thanksgiving coming up next week, a week that’s typically good for stocks, it’s possible we might just float around in a net sideways-to up market for the next couple of weeks.
With volume so light on today’s move, it would seem more likely that today’s weakness was corrective, and that a new high is still on the way. But seeing as that the correction from the Wave i low would be getting quite elongated, along with the unorthodox look of wave (iii) down that’s supposed to be underway right now, it means this count is losing steam. If this count is on track still, I’d like to see a sharp and quick pop to a new high tomorrow followed by a sharp reversal, or the market just fall hard with solid volume (above 1 billion NYSE). Anything other than that would lend itself more to the below triangle scenario, or perhaps something else entirely.
The sideways action over the past month or so, along with decreasing volume numbers, fit well into the triangle scenario shown above. If so, this would fit somewhat nicely into the upcoming holiday malaise we should see for the next week or so. I think tomorrow’s price action and internals will be very telling on which of the two above counts are most likely in play.
One of the reasons the more bearish count is still my top choice at the moment is the wave count in the euro. The euro appears to have topped and reversed again aftern an exhaustion gap up from Sunday. The resultant decline looks impulsive, again furthering the case for a top and bearish reversal. Yet stocks did not follow the euro’s intensity to the downside today. This tells me that perhaps the upcoming corrective euro rally with fall short of making a new high, yet stocks might make a slight pop up to a new high before reversing, creating an intermarket divergence I would see as very bearish. So I still think it’s better to be short the euro here. And aside from stocks, the past few years the Thanksgiving holiday has been very bad to the euro and great for the US dollar. If that holds true again this year, it means heavy selling is just ahead for the euro, and the wave count above supports this outlook.
PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.
