Tze: 10:00 AM (2011-09-09)
It looks like gold’s resilience with a strong support near 1800 will propel the precious metal towards $2,000 at any moment.But at that level, it would be prudent to sell because a sharp correction would soon follow as indicated by the current extreme level of the ATR indicator of GLD.
Just when U.S. is running out of money and lost its AAA rating with S&P, another $447 billion is about to be spent on yet another stimulus package. This kind of action is nothing short of insanity. It seems like the government is willing to sacrifice everything just to bring unemployment down 1 percentage point.
The U.S. dollar (UUP) on the other hand held well against its critical support level of $20.90 but UUP is bearish on all fronts, with a declining 14, 50 and 200 SMAs.
Tze: 10:00 AM (2011-09-08)
Economic growth is cut across the board based on the numbers from Asia and Europe. For example, Taiwan’s August exports was only half of that of consensus (7.2% vs. 15.5%). In addition, emerging market are halting their raising interest rate policy and are looking to cut rates instead. Fundamentals for commodities are still strong although precious metal prices remain volatile.
Tze: 10:00 AM (2011-09-07)
Markets have remained choppy causing institutional trading desks to become reluctant to short more. For example, if you look at the Asian market like South Korea, the KOSPI was down close to 5% on Monday but made up most of that loss the next day. Nice rally in the market today with gold plunging over 4%. The precious metal trade is becoming very risky these days. Some important upcoming events:
1 . Ben Bernanke speaks on Thursday
2. ECB Meeting
3. Obama’s address to Congress
4. Chinese inflation outlook (CPI and PPI)
Europe remains the key to upcoming market movements. As of right now, European banks are among the most leveraged in the world. Germany for example is more leveraged than Lehman was back in 2008.
Tze: 10:11 AM (2011-09-06)
Terrifying speech by Deutsche Bank CEO about the state of the European banks. Link: http://www.businessinsider.com/josef-ackermann-euro-banks-speech-frankfurt-2011-9
Basically, we need to be prepared for the replay of the 2008 financial crisis. I hate to admit that LaRouche’s doom and groom about Europe and the United States is not really an exaggeration.
The ES had attempted rallied, but didn’t quite reach the lows of March or June; and now is making a decline out of the channel. The ES appears like it will now test the lows made in August, or may even attempt to make a new low.
Morning traders. Tze continues to be spot on in his bearishness of the market. I still think we may have one final attempt at a rally, but have to admit the market is looking ugly. Financials look even worse! My idea of shorting the USO Friday is looking pretty good. I thought the mini panic over the oil wells in the gulf was silly. I’m still 95% cash and will be away from my computer all day. Good luck all.
I think 2008 is here again. This speech by Ackerman basically highlights that many European will not survive due to the sovereign debt crisis.
Ackerman news is yesterday’s news and nothing more than what everone already knows. Watch today as the market will rally back and only be down in the 50 point range. There will be another rally up untill TV president makes his speech. I’d say he is making this overdue speech a day late and a dollar short and the only reason he is going to make this speech is to try and salvage any weak hope for the election. Unless he pulls some kind of rabbit out of his hat of tricks he is done.
I agree. I was just highlighting the meat of Ackermann’s speech, which is pretty dire.
Trust me, I don’t really want this market to continue to plunge. It’s not good for anyone. I hope your scenario will come true by the close today
Market is grinding higher
Just 100 pts from -50.
Haha you are only off by 50 points with three minutes till the close. Nice job
Actually I was off by 30 points untill the last minute when it popped from 80 to 100 lol. I saw it coming.
Nice job
Dollar is gaining some strength.
It will be interesting to see if the market can rally today.
Definitely off the lows but it’s a long way from the green.
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Oh my the whole world is going into ressession yet the market rallies back. Such a bunch of BS if I ever did see it.
Yea it cut today’s loss in half so far. Well hopefully the market would not crash too hard. Otherwise, the American middle class would suffer even more. Things are already pretty bad as they are.
Amuse my wild scenario here. Wouldn’t governments around the world be able to solve the currency issue by fixing gold prices say to $1,000 or so? I think this would be a good intervention method to prevent any currency collapse. Of course the precious metal investors would be angry
Nice rally in the markets today. Gold plunges again. Safe investment? Only if you bought it at much lower price. Gold in some ways is more volatile than S&P 500.
Hey Tze, maybe if we can get to Fridays gap at 121 on the spy, good place to short?
Yes 121 or 122 would be a good level. Put a stop at 123 or so.
We’ll see how it plays out. I’ll have more time to post tomorrow.
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Morning traders. Here is an old chart from last week on RIMM. Notice how it keeps back testing the channel line it broke through. Taking a short here for a swing trade. Loose stop at $33 for now.
Nice chart and trendline. Just short RIMM whenever it touches that lower end of that channel.
As they say, a trend is a trend until it isn’t.
Taking a short on the SPY’s as we touch the top of my channel for a day trade. In at 112.89 and a stop at 120.10.
correction, in at 112.80.
In at 112.80? on SPY. I don’t know how haha
LOL! That wouldn’t be a very good trade. How about 120.80. Old age is a bitch! Anyways, here is the chart I posted yesterday(updated). Just extend the gap support line. I see I screwed up the stop also, suppose to be 121.10. Doesn’t matter now as I move my stop to break even(120.80).
Yea these levels should be ok. SP touched just a bit higher than 1200 and then as expected it’s coming back down.
Selling half of SPY at 119.97. Raising stop on other half to 120.30. RIMM is tanking!
Stopped out on the other half. I’ll take it!
seems like a nice trade so far.
Morning traders! RIMM is down another point in pre-market. Thought I would hold on to this longer but will sell at open for almost 10% gain.
Nice trade. I do expect RIMM to test the lows. However, there is a risk that RIMM might be acquired. If that happens, a short squeeze would sure take place.
Now here is something you don’t see everyday a market going down along with oil and gold.
Gold not so much. It’s pretty much flat. Gold is very different from other commodities because it virtually has no intrinsic value. It’s just precious
Right but it is extremely rare to see Gold, Silver and Oil down in a down market. Usually with a down market those comodities rise.
Yes unless the dollar rises, then all those commodities you mentioned would be going down.
I been noticing the decoupling too. Good observation.
Ok the euro just broke that 1.37 and as the dollar takes flight now gold and silver are beginning to rise and the oil drops. This is how it usually goes. My how things can change so fast! Hold on! Greece looking like it will default again as the european banks are scrambling to cover their losses. What a fricken mess.
It’s unbelievable. The whole European continent is about to fall to pieces.
Don’t be surprised to see a 400 plus point loss today. The dominos are falling and falling fast be long on gold.
Yea it’s kind of scary. Europe will likely not be able to hold much longer. I wonder what happens then.
I’m hoping to take a short position in Euro next week. I wouldn’t be surprised if the decoupling resumes.
Haha yea I wonder what happens to the ETF when EURO as a currency is gone. That would translate into infinite returns
Oil hasn’t been falling as much as I would expect.
Well you should just trade SCO so you have 2x the daily movement.