STOCKS MENTIONED IN THE BLOG TODAY AND THEIR RANKINGS:
1. YONG (up over 50% today) ranks no. 731 out of 3,437 stocks. Shorts are crying after the squeeze today.
2. ANW (up 2% today) ranks no. 294 out of 3,437 stocks.
3. BAC (down 0.5%) ranks no. 2 out of 3,437 stocks
4. AMBO (down 7%) ranks no.10 out of 3,437 stocks.
Download our Excel file and find out the rankings of your stocks and tell your friends.
Stocks: Download the complete stock ranking Excel spreadsheet here: StockModelFile_20110531
Model’s large cap choices for going long are (These are top 15 ranked stocks): INTC, BAC (would buy FAZ/SKF as a hedge), CSCO, MSFT and MRVL.
Model’s large cap choices for going short are (These are bottom 15 ranked stocks): AZO, NFLX, PCLN, LCAPA.
Feel free to discuss other names within the discussion board.
You probably noticed the fancy title. The reason is that the ETF model has definitively turned bullish after last Friday’s data feed. Out of the 18 hold and buy ETFs, only five are bear ETFs. They are: Energy (ERY), DOW30 (DXD), two financials (SKF and FAZ) and Yen/USD (YCS). Out of these five, we can pretty much ignore ERY and DXD due to the higher rankings of their bullish counterpart. Thus, we would just short the financials and long everything else. If you followed strictly our ETF model, you would have made about $20 a share on AGQ since it hit below $160 in mid-May. Our first AGQ buy signal was issued on 05/23/2011. If you trade according to this model, you would have gotten in at $180 the next day on 05/24/2011 at the open.
Download the Excel File of the ETF Model here: DailyModelScoreFile_20110531
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It’s best if people follow the ETF on a daily basis and the stock model on a weekly basis. During days when the ETF models are not updated, it is either due to no significant change in signals or data feed issues.
Hope every one had a good Memorial day weekend. Let’s discuss some of the names the model is proposing.
Well Sun I am looking to see EEE start moving back up again as it held it;s resistance of 2.00 last Friday and I look to see ANW push back towards it’s 50ma. JMHO
ANW – currently has a composite score of 4.155, which is good.
A bit weak on several valuation metrics but has a great intrinsic value. Solid on composite technical indicators. So yes it’s a buy
You can see complete information on row 295 by downloading today’s stock Excel file.
EEE – too small, not within the coverage universe. So I can’t comment on it.
Guys,
Download the Excel files and you will see practically every stock’s ranking. The discussions would be so objective and straightforward. All you guys probably have to do is to share some charts with each other. Anyone shared our fan page/group page on their Facebook account yet?
You can’t hedge using double triple leveraged etfs since they are designed to go to 0. You would want to hedge a BAC long with SEF. That is if your holding for longer then a day.
Not necessarily. The decay is immaterial even if you hold onto something for a week. The key is trend. The decay only matters when the market is very choppy sideways.
If the model signal changes and tells me to buy FAS instead, I would sell FAZ and buy FAS. Listen to the model.
You can use SEF as well but I don’t cover that in my model.
if your buying bank of america for a day then you could argue that a skf or fax hedge would work but that arguement would be flawed since the hedge would be 2x or 3x the move in the basket of derivs. based on banks that each holds. I guess your looking to hold something for an hour or a day when i’m trying to hold something for much longer. I still think a fax/skf hedge would not work for bac I guess you could be 2x the number of bac per dollar of faz to balance out the leverage. Anyway good luck
goldmansuchs
Your scenario assumes that one buys an equal amount of FAZ as BAC. Of course that defeats the purpose because your exposure would be 3x as much as BAC. What you do is you simply buy 1/3 of BAC’s exposure in FAZ. That would be equivalent to say buy equal amounts of BAC and SEF. Maybe I didn’t clarify sorry.
YONG…interesting play now that MS has confirmed it is legit. 5.50 seems cheap for a this company. I”m sure it will pull back a bit but any normal valuation for a company that is cash flow positive growing at triple digit rev/income gives you 15 bucks or so
Refer to row 731 for YONG within the stock Excel file. The stock is not bad, having a total positive composite score but it’s a bit weak on valuation. You should spot names that rank higher. ANW ranks higher. If you want aggressive smallcap names, check out HTHT on row 15 and USAK on row 20.
I’d like to see how your model determines valuation.
•Revenue increased 101.4% to $50.2 million from the first quarter of 2010
•Gross profit increased 97.0% year-over-year to $27.3 million
•Income from operations increased 101.0% to $11.3 million
•Net income attributable to Yongye increased 91.4% to $8.4 million, or $0.16 per diluted share, compared to $4.4 million, or $0.10 per diluted share, in the first quarter of 2010
and its selling at 5 times earnings..
can you explain what stock would be strong on valuation if this stock is weak on valuation?
If you can give me one stock that is growing rev/earnings at 100% and is cash flow positive and sells for a multiple under 5 then I would def. be very shocked and happy. Thanks in advance
Yea our 10th ranked stock (10th row) AMBO. Its quarterly revenue growth rate is over 150% with positive cash flow and its 12-month forward PE is a little over 1. But remember you need to take multiple factors into consideration. YONG did really well though after months of devastation. Shorts are crying right now.
The model works in a relative manner. Yes YONG has strong growth and good earnings but there are 700 other stocks that are STRONGER. It’s all relative. That is why the model is based on rankings. I cannot show you how the model is constructed that is proprietary but the valuation portion takes about 5 or 6 value metrics. Some of them you already mentioned in your comment. Then I construct a composite based on all of the sub valuation metrics.
Ambo is not cash flow positive and their margins are microscopic! It looks more like a value trap
Hi, I’m having difficulties to download the excel file. Everytime i tried it gave me xml code. help please…..
IT will contact you shortly. But here are some general comments.
1. After you click on the Excel file link, a new tab automatically opens. Then in that new tab, you click on the link again and a download window appears. Where does your problem occur. The first time you click on the file or the second time?
I downloaded the file, extract the zip file, i got 3 folders and [Content_Types].xml
What should i do next? I tried to open all files and it gave me codes.