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Filtering out the conflicting Bull/Bear ETF signals, we can see the picture is predominantly bearish. The model wants a bearish tilt towards commodities through ETFs such as ERY (Energy), DUG (Oil & Gas Stocks) and SMN (material stocks). In addition, there is also a bearish tilt towards small cap (TZA) and emerging related stocks (FXP) and EDZ. Another important thing to highlight is the YCS signal, which could signal the upcoming rally in the US dollar. People tend to be too overly bearish on the dollar and believe US would default in August. I think most likely the debt ceiling would be raised and some kind of a deficit cutting would be in place before that.
Download ETF Model Excel File Here: DailyModelScoreFile_20110517
STOCK MODEL HIGHLIGHTS
For the next few days, we still need to use the same stock model output that was produced for 5/17/2011. I am making further enhancements to the model.
If you haven’t already you can download the Excel output on the close 3,500 stock composite ranking data here: StockModelFile_20110517
Let’s concentrate on a few names. We can see that NFLX, AAPL AMZN PCLN are top short candidates. They are extremely expensive fundamentally and are technically stretched to a great deal.
Next batch of short names are BIDU, CRM, WYNN, EDU, FFIV and LULU. These are not ranked in the bottom 15, but their composite valuation/sentiment/technical scores are very negative.
On the long side, we have the top 15 names concentrated in somewhat obscure small cap names. I would highlight a few names further down the list: FEED and CALM. They are both agricultural related names.
Looks like all eyes are on Strauss Kahn. It amazes me how anyone of his position can do something like that.
Anyone shorting CRM and FFIV?
On the hand, who is buying CALM and FEED?
I bot some puts on CRM on 3/16 and sold yesterday for 28% profit.
CRM reports earnings tomorrow after close.
Yea let’s see their earnings I would feel more comfortable to take more solid position after the announcement.
CRM was pretty quiet after hours.
Yes I am here SUN
haha yea I can always count on you.
AGQ is taking off again market is not quite sure what to do today.
yea but I wouldn’t surprised if it continues its downtrend soon. It’s really hard to play silver these days. So volatile.
Just saw ITM’s writeup about opex and how commodities should be going up. Also saw your daily etf model which says to short commodities, oil, etc.
Which position should one take ? Or should one stay out given that they are conflicting ?
I’m just trying to figure out how best to use the information you are providing. Thanks.
I mentioned shorting energy/commodity related stocks would be a good idea. You can find stocks in the Excel Stock model file by looking at the industry classfication column and identify particular stocks that you can short. Short candidates are the ones with negative Composite Overall scores. The spreadsheet is already sorted from best to worst.
For ETFs, I mentioned ERY and DUG are good candidates.
I understand what you are recommending, however it differs from ITM’s commentary. To me this gives conflicting signals.
ITM’s commentary has nothing to do with my models. We are independent. The model must think differently based on multiple factor analysis.
Ok they are getting ready to take EEE to resistance 2.00 let’s see if they can do it.
You are obssessed with EEE
Did you take a look at the names I proposed yesterday for the coal sector?
Yea untill I can get away from it B/E @ 2.05. Until ten I can’t buy anything till I get that money back.
Market is now picking up volume rising looks to be a green day hold on tight.
AAPL is leading the rally
Off to the races will be green day for sure. Market liked what fed said. Don’t be surprise in a 100+ point day.
Rally is quite steady.