Tze
Finally updated the model using Google Finance’s price data. Hopefully the Yahoo Finance one will be fixed soon.
Several key trend and score changes to note:
- Dollar/Yen seems to be turning around with YCS moving into the top quintile.
- Large cap (DDM), energy (ERX), real estate (DRN), smallcap (TNA), technology (TYH) and emerging market (EDC) continue to be bullish
- One important thing to note is that despite the bullishness, many bearish ETFs are moving to the top such as DXD and FXP
- Despite silver’s rise yesterday, AGQ still ranks low. However it is worth noting that its raw composite score is still positive and there is currently a divergence between AGQ and UGL with UGL ranks much higher.
Tze
Serious data issues with the Yahoo Finance database. I have to tweak my program and use Google Finance as my data source. This will take a few hours. Sorry about the delay.
I think with the exception of AGQ, all other ETFs’ scores should not have any big changes. Hold on guys.
Will silver stop at 50 short term? I’m looking for that to hold and for now and then shoot past. Currently not a holder long or short.
Just finished updating the model. I will post it ASAP. Even though AGQ’s ranking is low, its overall raw score is well in the positive.
Gold moving higher, oil moving higher dollar, silver roaring higher as the dollar is at year lows as the printing presses are exhausing more and more paper this train to paradise is absolutely unstoppable. Being long and strong is the trend and the only way to be. JMHO
Yea gold is definitively in the bullish category. Silver not so much so but it continues to rally faster than gold. I think once the Gold/silver gap becomes narrower, silver could began to start lagging.
Actually if you compare the 20-30 year trend on silver it has more room to move higher whereas gold started moving up sooner. Silver has/is taking out highs from the 1980′s Hunt brother escapade. Difference here is not just one person is causing this as the last time. Silver and copper are a good comodity trade LONG.
Agreed. But if the overcrowding in silver continues like this, the collapse would just be as fast. The price level doesn’t justify continued holding.
Not only is it unstoppable, it doesn’t even want to slow down and take a breather.
Yea you got that right
. Crazy. AGQ is gravity defying. Looks like every time there is a correction, it moves much higher immediately 
Tze – Thanks for the updated etf chart.
Since the market still looks ‘bullish,’ how would one play it now since DXD is ranked a buy ?
What entry/exit criteria is used in this situation ?
Thanks.
Wes, I will be modifying the chart and explain to one can trade using the model soon. Strictly speaking, trading purely according to the rankings is a workable strategy but the volatility of gains/losses could be fairly high.
Right now the model is telling us that perhaps the best strategy is to start buying the bear ETFs while still holding onto the bull ones. A broad change in sentiment in the market is under way for sure.
I see that SSO dropped down quite a bit in your model…
Yes indeed. But since DDM is still up there and SSO is still in category 2, I wouldn’t be making any heavy short SSO bets right now.
Sold SSO at 55.71. I think we are close to the top of the move off of 1292ish..Likely pull back 20 points or so sooner rather than later…Jump back on after that move…If that does not happen? Oh well, I will think of something.
ZSun83 – You probably already explained this but your model is better used on what timeframe?
thanks
The model is best used for daily. I will modify the daily spreadsheet with daily returns associated so people can see the actual results. Thanks.
Ok thanks
Ooops on my sale at 55.71…My bad.
Hi there,
Many of these with Score =1 seems to be extended – so when is actually the best/preferred entry and exit?
Thanks,
If we were to automate the trading of these ETFs, we would be buying as soon as an ETF is ranked 1 and 2s and short when an ETF is in 4′s and 5′s. If the ETFs do not move from their current categories, then you hold. This would be the most disciplined non-emotional based trading method.
Do you have any plans to maintain/share a downloadable excel spreadsheet with everyday scores, so one can track when it moved/changed scores and get in/out accordingly…
Yes that is the next step along with specific stock data. Right now, I am just re vitalizing the community and hopefully getting hundreds of people together everyday. I hope everyone here can help mobilizing traders to this sight. The more people coming on and discuss these things, the more meaningful my work becomes. If no one comes, there is simply no incentive and inspiration. I like what i am seeing so far. Thanks for all your support.
Well, looks to me EEE is heading on down below 2 very soon so I am going to get out of it.
EEE is insane. The stock just kept on dropping. Perhaps alternative energy is losing steam as oil still dominates.
I have no clue all that I know is that it has taken a hard beating the last 8 trading days and enough is a enough. Might look at it later when it goes down to a buck.
The last two weeks in the market has been the worst two weeks I ever had. Think it is time to stay on the sidelines. Only thing I am making money on is my American fund and mutual fund accounts.
haha. Yea not easy to trade around in this bull market. I think more of us should start trading using my daily model. But that needs a lot of discipline and lack of emotion
What is K-1 based partnership & why is DXD rankes so high?
Hey there,
K-1 based partnership means that if you invest in that particular ETF and sell it at a profit/or loss, at the end of the year, Proshares will send you a K-1 form, which is a tax form sent to shareholders of partnerships. To some individuals, it could complicate their tax situations. To others, it doesn’t matter.
The rankings are based on my proprietary model and it’s a comprehensive measure of sentiment. When both bear and bull ETFs rank high, that means a divergence or a more complex sentiment situation is happening, which could signal a market trend change.
thx