Tze
1:08 pm
AAPL actually doesn’t look that expensive from a valuation point of view but price
technicals are not strong. 312 is a good entry point, which is the 200 SMA.
The model is telling some key trends and trade ideas today:
1. Energy, materials, smallcaps and largecaps remain attractive. Positions in DIG, SSO, TYH, UYM, TNA and ERX are solid
2. Financials and Shorting Treasuries are tilting towards the bearish side. This is evident in the weak performances of FAS and TBT
3. The most beaten ones are still gold/silver and emerging market/China shorts but it’s interesting to note that their counter part bull ETFs such as AGQ and UGL do NOT necessarily have great score rankings neither, a sign that things could turn the other way very soon.
Daily Poll. Please participate so I will know what to concentrate on for you guys.
Loading ... Loading ...A little hint on how to use the model as a potential guidance:
Let’s take AGQ/ZSL for example. Even though AGQ made an all-time high yesterday, the sentiment score actually dramatically declined. The table below shows a score of just over 2, that’s a signficant drop from a score of over 8 back in March from my historical data, a 80% decline!
Yesterday (not shown here) AGQ was already ranked in the 3rd quantile with a slightly bearish outlook. Thus, taking a ZSL position yesterday would have been a good bet. Look at the increase in ZSL today up over 8%!. The model is always forward looking by 2 to 3 days.
Data as of the 2011-04-25 close:
(Only ETFs with an average 30 day trading volume of 200,000 shares are selected. Anything less than that to me is not very liquid so I don’t really trust the accuracy of their rankings.)
The scores are produced by Tze’s proprietary ETF model and is for illustration and discussion purposes only.
Let’s discuss any individual ETF specifically after the market open post 9:30 am. Good luck trading 
I see resistance at 1338. APKT looks like a good buy.
Bernanke will hold a press conference tomorrow after the FOMC interst rate announcement. That don’t happen very often. Could be having trouble pushing this market over the hump.
It’s actually something new which will happen every quarter! Fed trying to be transparent
I wonder what he is going to say. Maybe along the line of “as long as I am Fed chair, there won’t be a recession
”
Look at the massive drop in AGQ. The leveraged ETF model has been predicting such a drop for the past few days. As of yesterday, AGQ was ranked neutral/bearish. Nice position in ZSL. What are you guys trading?
A little hint on how to use the model as a potential guidance:
Let’s take AGQ/ZSL for example. Even though AGQ made an all-time high yesterday, the sentiment score actually dramatically declined. The table below shows a score of just over 2, that’s a signficant drop from a score of over 8 back in March from my historical data, a 80% decline!
Yesterday (not shown here) AGQ was already ranked in the 3rd quantile with a slightly bearish outlook. Thus, taking a ZSL position yesterday would have been a good bet. Look at the increase in ZSL today up over 8%!. The model is always forward looking by 2 to 3 days.
So in your opinion, what will be the “best” trades for the next 2-3 days?
Hey there. The best traders are the ones that ranked as ones. DIG and SSO continue to look very attractive. Normally for risk control purposes, I would buy the ones ranked 1 or 2 and short the ones ranked 4 or 5 (in this case, shorting I meant buy the bear and buy I mean buy the bulls unless you can short the bull shares directly. Some brokerage firms don’t allow you to do that due to lack of inventory.)
So the model is telling us energy continues to be bullish. I would NOT chase the silver/gold trade. From today, we can see that those who piled onto AGQ just got burned today. Until the AGQ score goes above a 3, I wouldn’t touch it. You will know all these scores because I am posting every single day. Good luck.
In SSO at 52.15, was going to look for a spot to unload up here then get back in after small pullback but perhaps I will ride it as long as you have it ranked a 1.
Absolutely 5wavesups. I think that is a good bet. I would be doing to same. I wouldn’t be too worried about SSO until it drops below a ranking of 2. Generally, 1 and 2′s are in an overall bullish trend and 4,5 are bearish. 3′s are the ones that should not be traded. AGQ falls into that category right now, but I am personally very bearish on AGQ at this point due to the fact that its raw score dropped 80% from 8 to 2 in a matter of weeks despite AGQ was making new highs everyday. I think the model factors in more information than the normal divergences and is forward looking. I am quite confident about the model results.
Are you guys trading more small cap names or large caps or mid caps? Just trying to get an idea. Thanks.
For an individual stock play, what do you think of a AAPL short to 345 ? It looks overbought on daily and could find support at gap area around 345 and the weekly 10ma before taking off again ?
I created a chart on the homepage. Basically, valuation wise, it’s fairly reasonable. One can argue AAPL at this price is not expensive. Technically, not that impressive. with a falling 50 SMA, one scenario is it can go ahead and test the 200 SMA at 312. AAPL is not that overbought but volume is falling.
Wes,
Shorting AAPL is very hard since you are fighting against a super-growth story. Why not trade more of the leveraged ETFs and stocks with more earning volatility such as NFLX, CRM, etc.? Just a thought
Thanks zSun for the AAPL chart.
I was just looking for specific stock plays and will look at shorting NFLX too. I’m looking forward to your list of etfs/stocks to give me an idea of how you work.
Looking for a swing trade on GOOG upto 547.
If you haven’t considered this, can you please; Certain etfs are a pain and have k1′s, like zsl, and they can arrive late and screw up a tax return. It would be helpful if there was a list of etfs you trade on that don’t have k1′s, so we know upfront that we won’t have to worry about it at tax time. Not sure if people have run into this issue but I have.
Thanks.
I understand your situation perfectly because I got K-1s for ZSL, AGQ, SCO and UCO and I had to hand them over to my accountant after I filed
.
Yes I am aware of this issue and will put a note after each ETF within the model.
Thanks Wes for the meaningful request.
Hello Folks,
I have not post for a while due to extreme business. Last time I posted I mentioned I was invested 100% with about 80% short. I was up about 15% for the year until I took the short side right at the double top and that did not go so well so my shorts got stopped out and now I am up about 5%. I have not been trading for a while sitting on cash for two reasons:
1.-The market is strong to the upside but money rotation is crazy and some bulls are not getting this leg up
2.-Extreme intervention
But it seems we are reaching a turning point and the market will start behaving more like it should. That is people buying and selling (not only buying)
JROD,
Welcome back. Things are changing at FocalEquity.com too as you can tell from the upcoming daily content. I think even if we do reach a turning point, it wouldn’t be that dramatic. Look at the chart I created for AAPL. Valuation of that stock is not really anything crazy. There is really a lot of growth for these global U.S. companies.
Thanks zSun83.. I will try to help out…
Definitely appreciated. We have had people who have been quite disruptive during the transition of ownership and spreading negative rumors. They can’t be more wrong. FocalEquity is here to stay and will be better than ever. Of course I have to show that through my actions. I will be persistent to earn people’s trust.
zSUN you already have my trust and I am right there backing you up and I have no worries that this site will only get better that it already is. Thank you for your effort and hard work. I’m positive others here feel the same way.
Thank you very much Dsavill.
JROD,
Thanks for checking back in and owning the loss on the short side. I was curious what happened because I do recall you said you were going 100% short a couple weeks back.
With that thought in mind I have a few stocks that I have been willing to buy:
TIV –> Penny stock with very nice upside
OREX–> Just upgraded
DRL –> Nice play about to test the 200SMA at 1.49. If it breaks this it will go up like crazy since it has a lot of short interest in it.
What is your thought with EEE JROD? Smart trend called this one on the button as far as it dropping down bigtime. Do you believe it is still worth holding or will it continue to fall below $2?
I actually began to follow this stock a little bit. I heard that Evergreen Energy is shifting its focus to China. Wow what a plunge! This stock used to be over $250?? Is it wishful thinking that this will be another DTG
Now on the short side….
NFLX is defenitley a short and this stock should test 200′s soon.
WNR is a short in my mind also (although be careful and place a stop @20)
Couldn’t agree more on NFLX. Have to dig into small cap names a little bit. I will make that free data file for you guys in the next few days then we can base our discussions on data, chart and numbers only, making discussions highly objective and intelligent.