Intraday Commentary ~ 03/31/2011

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FocalEquity

– March 31, 2011Posted in: Intraday Commentary, Stock and ETF Models

About FocalEquity

Sun Tze is one of the founders of FocalEquity.com. After going through multiple transitions, Tze, Charlie Cheng and their new team are bringing new changes and features to the new FocalEquity.com in 2011. Tze is specialized in financial modeling and has a masters degree in Finance.

36 Comments

1. Robert_Tax_CPA

   Posted March 31, 2011 at 6:36 AM

   I’m itchy to once again jump on the bear bus based on very long term trend line going back to 1930s. Using restraint not to take any positions in trading account. Fridays job report will be…interesting. Hard to argue with Idans spy comments of yesterday… Spyheading towards 135. Another very bullish week, Dow up 8 of last 10 trading sessions. Lots of bulls on all blogs which IMO should mean we are topping out…at least in ST or IT. Gut feeling is we need one more rise to “set the hook” as we say when fishing. Dr copper not looking a little weak if thats our leader.

   I almost messed my pants 2 nights ago when mainstream media had an expert explaining how safe workers are in japan and it’s ok to drink liters of the water, just not too much. I walked in the middle so I didn’t catch who he was..but he was serious. I presumed it was a teppco guy. Would have loved to see someone dare him to drink the truly electric cool aide. My point is lots of spin as someones afraid of bad news.

   • Robert_Tax_CPA

     Posted March 31, 2011 at 6:39 AM

     Meant dr copper not looking terribly bullish…we may need the real building blocks of america to lead us on the stairway to heaven, like ftk EEE pcln nflx and nameless others. (sarcasm intended)

   • chicagochris

     Posted March 31, 2011 at 7:52 AM

     it really is unbelievable what those poor japanese worker are wearing…they look like they are wearing protective gear MD’s wear going into an operating room(minus gas mask) vs going into a radioactive mess..

   • Brownie54

     Posted March 31, 2011 at 8:28 AM

     I would consider a short for a day trade, but would close most(if not all) of it by end of day. Fairly tight stops of course. Also looking for a good pairs trade here. Open to suggestions.

2. JROD

   Posted March 31, 2011 at 9:28 AM

   I am still short VXX, TZA and FAZ and long EEE, MAG, and SONS.

   • gjg1963

     Posted March 31, 2011 at 9:44 AM

     Why not just go long TNA and FAS? Decay?

3. JROD

   Posted March 31, 2011 at 9:30 AM

   Although I am 100% invested (short) right now I will probably sell some of my shorts if I am given a break to raise some cash. With that cash I am looking at buying ALU that recently broke its 200 SMA on the weekly very bullish…..

4. JROD

   Posted March 31, 2011 at 9:31 AM

   I am looking to sell about 15% of my shorts or maybe sell MAG to get in ALU. Have not decided yet…

5. chicagochris

   Posted March 31, 2011 at 9:39 AM

   Idan..you were right on the emerging market trade..still holding within my 17.60 target but edc jumped pretty good this morning…possibly a good short eod tomorrow or beginning of next week?

   • Idan

     Posted March 31, 2011 at 8:06 PM

     hmm can’t tell yet.. i wouldn’t short yet. not yet.

     • chicagochris

       Posted March 31, 2011 at 8:10 PM

       I’m looking for a quick move back up to 20 on edz..not in yet…want to see what happens with the #’s

6. Robert_Tax_CPA

   Posted March 31, 2011 at 10:08 AM

   bt 500 dxd @ 17.76, bearish on dow.

7. chicagochris

   Posted March 31, 2011 at 10:19 AM

   this Sokol thing is ridiculous…he clearly was in the wrong…I don’t even know how they can spin it otherwise….maybe if he was a long term share holder with no change in stock position prior to this deal, he might have a leg to stand on..but to go from 2300 shares held and sold in 10days to repurchase 90k+ shares when he had influence and directing Buffett towards a deal…no way..and I can’t believe the SEC has not contacted him already

   • Robert_Tax_CPA

     Posted March 31, 2011 at 10:33 AM

     they said Buffet handled it perfectly, making him front run the story. I have to admit, the man (buffett) has the midas touch and he knows how to buy when there is blood in the streets. He may not be a trader, but his slow and steady has done remarkably well.

     • chicagochris

       Posted March 31, 2011 at 10:44 AM

       yeah…i don’t think buffett is an issue here…he didn’t do anything wrong…but Sokol should have some problems…like i said..if he had purchased those shares and held them unchanged, he might have an argument…but to add 90k when you have influence on the outcome…its like an assistant coach betting on their game..not saying he will get prosecuted…but he should….and i think the general consensus is changing their tune on the interview…buffett’s name may get this buried but it shouldn’t

       • Robert_Tax_CPA

         Posted March 31, 2011 at 11:06 AM

         And they said on the radio it’s believed this was not the first time he’s purchased shares in advance of pitching the company to Buffett. Foolish or greedy or both, but certainly foolish IMO. I beleive he was supposed to take over Berkshire.

         • chicagochris

           Posted March 31, 2011 at 11:23 AM

           oh he was..in fact they mentioned Buffett moved 3 people into his role..so that kind of puts it into perspective the weight he carried..and if this is not the first time…I would think that would only strengthen a case and live room to find more inappropriateness….Martha Stewart has to be screaming “He better get jail time”

         • Robert_Tax_CPA

           Posted March 31, 2011 at 12:28 PM

           interesting comment re: Martha Stewart, makes a lot of sense.

         • chicagochris

           Posted March 31, 2011 at 12:42 PM

           are you being serious or making fun

         • Robert_Tax_CPA

           Posted March 31, 2011 at 1:17 PM

           I was being quite serious, chicagochris (I have no reply button to reply directly).

8. Robert_Tax_CPA

   Posted March 31, 2011 at 12:27 PM

   map of the markets, not much to see http://www.smartmoney.com/map-of-the-market/

   • Idan

     Posted March 31, 2011 at 1:26 PM

     I think we are going to get volatility back tomorrow… new quarter!

     • Robert_Tax_CPA

       Posted March 31, 2011 at 2:02 PM

       thx, I was also thinking of adding some vxx, as it seems so low, but I didn’t want to get all short at once, rather I prefer to scale in. I wanted to wait beyond April 1st before adding any positions.

       We are starting to have some clients liquidate some positions to fund taxed due April 15th. However, relatively small numbers as most of our clients still have prior years capital losses that have offset the 2010 gains.

       With payroll data due tomorrow, Holding too short can be dangerous. I sort of feel like the guy looking down Clint Eastwoods 44 Magnum, “Do you feel lucky, Punk”.

       • Robert_Tax_CPA

         Posted March 31, 2011 at 2:03 PM

         s/b Taxes due April 18th.

         I suppose tax selling is offset by IRA’s opened prior to April 18th

9. Idan

   Posted March 31, 2011 at 1:26 PM

   I say buy AIG if it gets another 2 dip days like today with high volume.

10. dsavill

    Posted March 31, 2011 at 2:10 PM

    It’s been a strange day. Oil is trending higher gold is trending higher the market is the highest it has been since 1998 yet the market is pretty much flat. This has the feel of a coiling market ready to explode up even higher. My guess are the employment numbers will beat expectations and the market shoot up like a pissed off cobra. JMHO

11. Robert_Tax_CPA

    Posted March 31, 2011 at 2:13 PM

    Interesting talk on Bloomberg Radio http://www.bloomberg.com/radio/

    They won a freedom of information suit against the feds showing who received the discount window loans. Bet you will see a lot of GS and BOA. I also suspect the market couldn’t care less.

    Bloomberg is saying part of the story will be the CEO’s were saying they were doing great while they were actually borrowing huge sums of $ from the Fed.

    • Robert_Tax_CPA

      Posted March 31, 2011 at 2:13 PM

      Another part of the story, many of the CEO’s are no longer CEO’s.

12. dsavill

    Posted March 31, 2011 at 2:14 PM

    You would think with oil going higher the market would be down a bunch. It seems like it likes the oil pushing higher which is a bit strange.

13. kenjisan

    Posted March 31, 2011 at 3:44 PM

    this site is dead

    • Brownie54

      Posted March 31, 2011 at 3:51 PM

      So is the market.

    • goldmansuchs

      Posted March 31, 2011 at 3:51 PM

      today is actually a busy day..

      U
      C
      O
      N
      N

14. Robert_Tax_CPA

    Posted March 31, 2011 at 3:53 PM

    added 100 vxx (very small) @ 29.41

15. kenjisan

    Posted March 31, 2011 at 4:05 PM

    Cramer says to buy WFT and sell APA and sell FLR

    • Robert_Tax_CPA

      Posted March 31, 2011 at 5:05 PM

      then sell wft and buy apa and buy flr Kidding, he’s actually like POMO, front run him and you will probably do well in the long run.

16. Robert_Tax_CPA

    Posted March 31, 2011 at 9:34 PM

    interesting article imo on tomorrows jobs #

    http://marketspath.blogspot.com/

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