3:34pm
Got stopped out of my short at 129.34… just came back.. it looks like the bulls still have strength.. i’ll wait and see whether or not to buy in on a dip or to short (if we break down 129 again).
11:35am
FED’S FISHER – FED HAS DONE ENOUGH, NOW UP TO CONGRESS TO ASSUME RESPONSIBILITES FOR ECONOMY
No more QE…no more free money…no more free equitiesssssssss
SPY now trading below $129…but it might come hit back soon. I’m using that opportunity to short and put a stop right above the 129.30 mark.
Can the POMO come in and continue this “train to paradise”? My guess is no, but my cash remains on sidelines. Tempted to take a little QID($55.35) right here though.
Bac – getting spanked pretty hard anyone thinking about knife catching..
On 03/15/2011 I wrote that there were two scenarios one pesimistic and one optimistic. Thank god. The optimistic one is playing out because the other one was of biblical proportions.
Optimistic Scenario:
Japan gets the Nuke under control this week or the following. This will probably be follow buy QE3 and other sort of inorganic government interventions and announcements that will probably get a rally going. This rally willl be short lived and should be sold because the damage to Japan infraestructure and economic model is huge. Japan has no natural resources and relies on nuclear energy to power the island. They are have a debt of about 200% their GDP. My heart and thoughts go out to Japan but this is not an easy crisis.
Now it seems the reactor is under control. But just as predicted the BOJ intervened in the FX market. We traded down to one of my levels 11450-11550 and then went up. The move up was Future driven since during normal trading hours there was basically no action. Now Oil prices are going up and I do not see QE3 happening any time soon with Oil on the rise that would just killed the US economy instantly since Oil will just spike up more. Under the following conditions the only path forward until Arab unrest fades is Strong Dollar. That means market will correct in the months to go. Short is the right play here. I am putting my remaining 30% cash in short today and I am now basically all in. I am currently Long VXX, TZA, and FAZ (basically shorting the market). I am also long EEE, MAG and SONS.
The market has not traded down because Benny boy speaks at noon. He likes markets green we speaks…..
Did you see the horrible housing numbers?? 250 vs 290K.
Remember I told you months ago that the key to this recovery is housing which is the backbone of the economy and until it comes back nothing will?
still no positions for me. market needs to start making a move soon though. still waiting patiently for a larger move to get into my initial put position. hoping it’s a rise first.
I like being on the same page as you
. Are you looking at longer term trend lines? My thought / hope is we get to SPX 1301ish before I start building a short position. If it’s like in the past, it will be time when the bears are berated by the bulls on the blogs. Probably will take one more rediculous merger Monday or something to really stretch the rubber band. From what I read, many bears are already short, which IMO should work out well as long as postions are held. I’d like to wait for one more rediculous rally before deploying any meaningful shorts.
I’m not certain if this link will work, but March is typically bearish (according to stock traders almanac). The following links are from Cobra’s blog. I like the way he trades, like Idan, he focuses on controlling risk.
SEASONALITY: BEARISH THE NEXT WEEK
According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:
1. Week after Triple Witching, Dow down 15 of last 23, but rallied 4.9% in 2000, 3.1% in 2007 and 6.8% in 2009.
2. March historically weak later in the month.
http://lh3.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/TW2nNFhx7qI/AAAAAAAAJ-Y/4dzGq3yNnXY/s1600-h/MarchSeasonality%5B2%5D.png
Excerpt from todays stock trading almanac. http://www.stocktradersalmanac.com/sta/home.do
03-23-11
March Historically Weak Later in the Month (Pages 30 and 134, Stock Trader’s Almanac 2011)
“Wall Street’s graveyards are filled with men who were right too soon.”
It does feel like this is not a normal market right now, so I don’t know if you can use the trades almanac for any real trading.
Right now I have no positions in my trading account and my investment accounts have been defensive for a couple of months. I even sold the biggest winners in my daughters and nephews college funds about 3 weeks ago, I rather earn .001% interest than risk losing the gains in AAPL and some of the other things they’ve held for many years. I may not be right with the timing…I admit I am still “spooked” by the bloodbath I took a few years ago after following someone on this site and going against Idan. But I truly believe a lower low is due relatively soon, probably a touch under 1250 SPX, then perhaps a rise, then the world will end (figuratively) IMO
i wouldn’t be surprised if we got a rise into close, and then a follow through rise into tomorrow. i want to see 1310ish. 60min 200ma currently sitting there. long term trend lines on 6 month and 2 year. fib.
market would get a bit more oversold to allow for a stronger drop.
fundamentally, everyone knows there is too much crap going on in the global economy. almost a perfect storm. add inflation. add bs props. ben might help boost wallstreet into tomorrow, and then the reality will set in that there is not much anybody can do to fix things.
i agree with the 1250 minimum retouch. i mentioned it a few days ago and am leaning really hard towards this. i’m not looking for a lot of choppy action on this next drop. may be willing to hold my put position for a few days to capitalize on it.
there’s still a chance we could get a strong drop prior to any more major rises. if that happens, i’ll wait for a stronger breakdown of the 1280s. still a good 30 point drop there, which i’m perfectly fine with.
Meanwhile in the face of adversity, uncertainty, wars, earthquakes, tsunamis and even nuclear fallout the train to paradise just keeps a chugging away.
wow, the train to paradise, well its a train to somewhere, i dont know about paradise.
yeah i kind of find it ridiculous haha.
you have gas prices higher than ever. you have inflation to the point where you can’t get any fast food under $5 anymore. when did every lunch become $10 when even trying to eat cheap and unhealthy.
unemployment still sucks. housing still sucks. natural disasters. japan has tons of factories shutting down for 6 months or more. a whole section of japan hasn’t been going to work in an already horrible japanese economy. governments are getting overthrown. more wars and fighting.
according to the market…in the last 5 years, when the economy was at its best, and when the economy was at its worst….we are somewhere closer to when the economy was at its best. charlie sheen needs to hire the publicist that works for the economy, cuz they’re spinning something and people are eating it up.
I know…it is ridiculous…lol..and woo don’t forget the middle east literally exploding…lol…i mean a roadside bus bomb in Israel…what else is left…I know..a cubs world series win…if that happens you know the world is coming to an end..lol…and if that actually does happen, my guess will be Bennie B had something to do with it…lol
Don’t forget the pro money managers must have market rising in order to keep their jobs and or bonuses. Less so for hedge funds. So IMO being short is going against big boys. Thankfully long term trendlines are quite powerful. It appears many global markets are moving in tandem, not even the fed can alter what the market must do for too long, and certainly not forever. I for one will not BTFD in the near future except for a possible very short term trade
I want to be short… but i’ve been burt on days like these so many times.. i’m just waiting on the sidelines until we get the first push.
We have been waiting a long long time no pun intended but it looks like we will need another “mother nature” incident to rattle this train looks like to me.