Woo:
2:00pm
I’ve been looking for an SPX 1290ish rise to begin considering another short position, but I don’t like how there is still some good support here. I’m willing to wait a bit to get a bit more confirmation breakdown on TNA to grab some TZA. I bought and sold SPY calls yesterday and didn’t hold into today in fear of decay. Don’t mind missing out on a little more profit.
I have been leaning towards the top being in overall and have been playing the market accordingly, shorting after rises and selling on strong drops. I’ve been posting my buys and sells on fb lately, because the trades are sparse.
2/28 – April 127 puts bot@1.60
3/1 – April 127 puts sold@2.05
3/2 – April 126 puts bot@1.92
3/15 – April 126 puts sold@3.04
3/16 – April 127 calls bot@2.97
3/17 – April 127 calls sold@3.44
currently have no positions.
I’ll be posting more regularly here again starting April 3 after my annual work conference is done.
Idan:
11:36am
Sorry, i’ll be flying most of the day but i do want to point a few things. The SPY is not looking as bullish, and i covered my calls with some small gain for now… I do think EWJ is starting to look a little more bullish as it hits against the 200 SMA daily for the second time, this time around making a new high… As long as it doesn’t fall below yesterday’s low.. i’m a buyer of EWJ.
3:12am
It looks like i got really lucky for buying calls on EWJ and SPY right at the end of the day… i expect to keep a trailing stop (if we are up significantly tomorrow)… and hopefully will take profits once they say a nuclear disaster has been avoided.. i don’t want to be long equities in general… i’m just playiing off the oversold prices.
Here is an EW chart with counts and analysis;
Elliott Wave Update and the DJIA – New Bear Market?
http://newsusa.myfeedportal.com/i/elliott-wave-update-djia-bear-market
Looks like the ‘bounce’ is half way there…
But, with the geopolitical tensions abound, well, ok, I’ll leave that out of this.
Nice call on EWJ
I bought EWV (ultrashort Japan Index) and YCS (ultrashort Yen)
I’m not sure which which will hurt or gain more.
- gain from Long YCS or loss from Long EWV
3 more hours to find out.
Guess you made some money
Yes, YCS did well, but I do have some AAPL shorts that kinda countered it. I need AAPL to fall today.
congrats..I need to listen to my gut and I would have been with ya…lol
and aapl is going down…just a matter of time..trading poorly today…even out of the gate it had a less than impressive bounce
Apparently there is a rumor that Steve Jobs is stepping down as CEO.
i also think the uncertainty of the disruption of supply of parts is a weight
i am still short the qqqq’s myself
Let’s do it, I’m a little more aggressive with REW since open since cramer said to sell tech on open. Let’s do the ‘down tech’ dance. It is already down, but more!
that happend a while ago.
Steve Jobs is still CEO of Apple.
http://www.google.com/finance?q=aapl
Whatever happened that we wave 5 made all bears capitulate? I don’t see that here.. We need S&P 1800 for complete capitulation which will likely not happen until 2015
Thoughts on the dollar? It looks to be at a critical point. I’m looking for a bounce here.
UUP is your friend
One odd thing is, I thought people were dumping yen and buying dollars.. dollar no gain.
Cramer says to sell tech on open. Buying some REW at 60.60. We’ll see how it goes.
Yesterday he said to sell MHS and buy ESRX. That’s working out. Not a lot.. but working out.
I still look at S&P support of 1294. I went bearish when it broke to the downside and will stay until it is broken. Getting close but will short near there with a tight stop. Will go long with a strong break. Off to work now. Good luck to all.
Here’s my thoughts, wave 2 down was the flash crash (A-B-C) pattern, and now we have commenced wave 4 down (A-B-C) pattern.
Wave 4 pattern always differes from Wave 2
Wave 2 was definetely a zig-zag, 3-5-3, so I’m expecting Wave 4 to be flat.
That’s why I’m loading up on FAS shorts from $29-$35 (scale in slowly while selling puts), and VXX shorts from $37-$50 (if we get that high as some claim we think).
Only at 1200 will I consider buying any stocks, and only at 1400 would I consider shorting the market with actual stocks.
Until then, I’ll let volatility smash both ETF’s.. I’m looking to cover VXX at 1400, and cover FAS at 1200.
What’s up with ANW? It shot up to 8.28 from 7.70 like a rocket? Any body know?
The situation is Japan is far from over and middle east in in disarray from the Saudis to the Lybians. GE earnings and projections are and will be in dire straits and technology will suffer from component shortages. The Fed has used the spin of bank dividends to get a reaction out of the market and my take is that it failed. Now we have been up for the last couple of days but this is pure government intervention. How do I know, well is easy ,the futures gaps created in the last couple of days have not follow thru during normal trading hours. Basically nobody wants to go long and play chicken with a nuclear reactor. I have 60% cash left and I will use another 30% to go short into close today. The japanese could solve the problems during this weekend (god help them to do so) if so I could loose money and that is OK. I am not betting on a nuclear catastrophe, I actually would like to see this problem solve quickly. However I am just positioning myself to follow what feels right and logic from a traders point of view..
I have just bought another Round of VXX and TZA bringing my cash position to only 30%. I am still long MAG, EEE, and SONS
I’ll be looking for TZA soon too. Posted a chart above. Will look for a bit more breakdown first in case there is a bit more rising left. If we get another rise into Monday, I’ll probably buy TZA then or go with SPY puts.
Whats your take on why the RUT finished so strong on the highs of the day when the DOW and SPX are closer to their lows after hours.
I would never be a buyer of VXX unless the VIX is at 15-17.
Because if the problem is resolved, VXX will never recover.
If you want to go short the market why not short FAS, that way even if your wrong, decay can save you.
Best of luck, I think VXX can trade upwards to $40 in the next 2-3 months, but the risk/reward is in your favour, I bet it’s 80% up, 20% down, but if it’s 20% down, your never recovering your $.
I am short VXX, and not comfortable, but my avg. short price is in the 38s so it’s all good.
When are you looking to short?
Not just yet. There’s still a chance we could get a bit more rising. We hit the 61% retrace of the recent stronger drop. However, the overall move down is going to be swift. The market isn’t going to dilly dally around and drag out over the week. once the selling pressure begins i’ll probably grab puts. If we get one more stronger rise to about 1310, i’ll probably put the market pretty hard.
Here is why ANW shot up like a rocket: http://www.benzinga.com/media/cnbc/11/03/936995/aegean-marine-petroleum-goes-crazy-on-cnbc-mention-anw
Anyone notice RUT and TNA seem to be in a flat triangle? I can imagine a pop, not sure what the technical level typically is, then a drop with the other indexes. Of course none of this may happen.