Idan
9:43am
Still holding on to my HDB position (bought 2 weeks ago).. i am up nicely on it already.. but i think this is a winner until india starts raising interest rates.
9:26am
EUR/USD daily chart showing us that it is almost time to short… after a massive rally for the EUR in the last week, we are about to reach some ascending resistance in the 1.40-1.405 area that should give the dollar a bounce. The market of course got a little ahead of itself on Trichet’s comments, I highly doubt they’ll raise rates that easily with portugal’s 10yr yeild at 7.5% and spain’s getting worse. They’ll need a bailout soon.
9:10am
192,000 added jobs for the month of February with an added revision for Jan. This is above consensus but stocks rose a huge amount yesterday on hopes that we would see 200,000++, which didn’t happen. Again, take a look at the chart i put below, with oil pressure coming in, we might not have what we need to continue this rally.
12:00am
I think everybody knows that the job number means EVERYTHING tomorrow. But here’s why i think it means EVERYTHING in the technical analysis side. If you look at the QQQQs which look more bullish than the SPX right now (since they surpassed their old high from 3 days ago), you can see we are in a ascending channel. The highs form a resistance line, the lows form a support line. It looks a lot like an A, B, C correction on the hourly chart, and the potential for a strong move lower coming in as wave 3.
So why does the jobs number matter? Well.. tomorrow we will find out whether or not this rally up here was just a correction rally before another push lower (wave 3) or if we are busting right out of this channel to confirm new highs in the Qs. If the jobs number upsets and we see a 1-2% drop tomorrow in the QQQQs, expect the drop to be much bigger. We will probably see 5-10% downside from current levels. If we bust through my resistance, expect another 3-5% rally.
Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET
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I’m mainly long (CSCO, PRU, SYY, AMD, BBY, TMV, etc.), but have 2 shorts.
- short SLV
- short WYNN
Once in a while, I get these terrible terrible days. =/
ok..where are we going? looks like inline but oil climbing…and what is up with an 8 handle on unemployment %..
Surprised the futures are flat after the jobs number. Will wait until 10:00AM for the market to make a move. Keep an eye on Idans Q’s chart. Meanwhile oil is up(no surprise).
yeah… i’m still unsure as to if we break out or start rolling over… 192,000 was a very close number to 200,000 so we’re not selliing off.. i think if oil breaks to $104 we might see that roll over.
Idan,
What do think about UBS stock? At present stock is reached top range.
Support is looking around 19, 18.50.
Any thoughts on UBS stock.
just sold SPY puts from yesterday for a quick scalp. Looking to start a small long position if gap support holds.
SPY 133 calls @ 132.5….let’s see if we can go green today
Same here. Moment of truth? W3 up or down? I Really wants it to go down, but if revent history is any good w3 up is coming monday or eod.
Any idea Idan? Where is Woo?
I sold my puts from yesterday, but havent gone long yet. How sure r u on going green today? I still see potential of big down move.
honestly, not that sure. We’re definitely on shaky ground. I have a very small position…just rolling the dice.
yeah, where’s woo? I followed him a lot and really liked his calls….if he came back, the site’s traffic would definitely pick up.
stopped out of calls.
Big POMO days on MTW next week. Might try it again later today.
long @ 1314
LULU keeps going up despite mkt jitter.
JROD- r u still holding MAG?
anw taking beating, may take small position soon (7.7?)
ANW is a pos don’t waste your time with it. It has lost millions in each of last 4 quarters. It has been by far the worst trade I ever made.
Silver (AGQ) is a monster. My god. I regret I didn’t buy it at 118 towards the end of January. SLV heading to 35 is imminent. This is crazy.
Charles Nenner said silver tops at 31 I guess he is dead wrong on that one. He and Prechter both bearish on gold and silver. I really hope they are right but the current situation is really going against them.
Dollar has to rally to stop the rise in precious metals. But it’s really getting hopeless it seems. This is the moment perhaps to be very bullish on the dollar.
After it hits bottom, maybe! taking a chance on it right now would be like shooting in the dark.
For DXY, I see a little to possibly a lot more downside. My potential targets 76.17, 76.01, then 74.48 (ouch!).
Of course the GIANT daily head & shoulders pattern on DXY remains intact with downside target of 72ish. However lots of sentiment piling up against DXY right now, so I’ll take it a little at a time.
Kenji…how long you holding onto your SLV shorts?
The S&P has moved higher yesterday for a deep second wave correction and price remains below the invalidation point at 1,337.1 on the hourly chart. The trend change still looks likely today.
my chart
http://bradstradingchart.blogspot.com/2011/03/sp-500-march-3rd.html
the chart is beautiful and hope it happens but you think they will let it roll completely over…iran and saudis will have to start exchanging bullets for that to happen..which is possible, but I think we are contained until end of june, and even then we will see if we are on our own or if bennie and the jets return to the fed basement to print more $$$$’s for QE3
Still holding my own with relatively heavy short via vxx, sh and tza. But account is not really showing any material movements either way. Slightly down after a couple of weeks building the short position, which I feel good about. I have been adding slowly and not getting in our out too much (I just sold Vxx on spike a week or so ago, which helped returns).
This market is tough… when futures lead me to believe it will be a green day (like today) it gets beat up.
I suspect longs are also having trouble making real $ with this market lately, but I may be wrong.
Quick Mr. Top Step video …. feels market is still bullish and this will reverse as day goes on…
http://mrtopstep.com/2011/03/04/danny-riley-on-jobs-report-and-market-events-ahead/
Followed by this tweet 3 min later from Mr. Top Step….mrtopstep Mr Top Step
RT @Eubiquitous: YOU HAVE JUST WITNESSED THE DOUBLE TOP OF 2011 / 1333-1336′s.. this is exactly how tops get created
2 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply
bold call, thought we might shoot higher.
dsavill, this has the potential to be a 300 pt. change today, like yesterday, except the other direction. Will hold my UCO over the weekend.
Yes it does the big difference the way I see it is it is Friday and the selloff can happen much easier especially with the potential of an actual civil war happening over in Lybya plus OIL is rising more.
u r singing to the choir. have said several times that libya situation can be a conduit to change in the market. if something good happens soon, may see a reversal, but think we are starting correction. 3/11 will have impact (saudia arabia), but for now, inflation in commodities should continue.
Hi Woo,
Are you still with Focal Equity?
http://www.businessinsider.com/day-of-rage-friday-march-4-2011-3
Lots a chatter about Lybia “civil war”. My understanding is the Saudi’s can NOT make up any supply disruptions for diesel, as their oil is of a lesser grade and refineries in europe are at full capacity.
I guarantee you that if oil spikes up closer to 106-108 timber bigtime.
Front month WTI crude future prints fresh high for 2011 at USD 104.44. insert donkey kong .jpg
lol, right off twitter from zero hedge.
What if oil heads towards $150 ?
Game over for recovery if that happens.
I tell you ANW really looks like a candidate for going BK I just have a gut feeling on that.
Alrighty I feel a miraculous comeback for EOD watch it get back to around -20 or so.
Well looks like there will be no miraculous comeback the market is skeered down we go to match day lows.
Okay, maybe we stop at JROD’s call for 12050 as first line of defense.
or not.
Wait they taking a run at it in last 10 minutes I say it gets in below -100.
After your post yesterday about no retrace (would assume st), would you at least be willing to say we are in a situation of “I don’t know”, because I actually don’t know. As you seem to be long term, along with myself (opposite, what makes market), it is good to try and define a correction. What is your capitulation on SPX?
Bro what I said yesterday is the SPX will continue to go up but that is not to say it won’t retrace in the process. Some days it goes up and some days it goes down but the net result is it will melt up. Remember what I said about two steps forward one step back the net result is still forward.