11.23 AM
Tze
Made over 10% on SHLD (Sears) short.
SHLD has some terrible fundamentals:
Which major retail chain has a forward 12-month P/E of 74? This company is much more expensive than its peers Target and Walmart. The valuation of SHLD needs to come down dramatically, at least to the 70 price range.
Wheat is really rallying today after a dramatic selloff beginning Monday. I am long term bullish on Wheat and grains in general. Definitely holding and buying more of JJG on any dip for at least into late 2012.
XOM (Exxon Mobil) is lagging here a bit today but delivered great performance YTD. An interesting observation is CHK (Chesapeake). Perhaps the natural gas play will finally pay off.
Definitely continuing shorting emerging market via EDZ. The spread between developed and emerging market is still well in the positive category.
FSLR should go up later next week, HUgely and retest the 180
SWBB
Guess the forum is quiet because to everybody’s busy making money, no time to talk.
AIG is due to for a bounce on Monday or Thusday. The big question is when I should buy HUGE today. I would buy HUGE if price drop to 37.4 today.
HUGE
SWBB
Does anyone here using a portable alpha strategy. (Short the market and pick stocks that outperform the market) so as a result, we earn the spread. Volatility would be reduced as well?
give example.
So we would have a bunch of core holdings, really high quality and low volatility stocks such as XOM, IBM, CAT, AMZN, etc.. We layer that with a SP500 short such as buying SH (the simple 1x short the SP500 index).
So basically we are always shorting the whole market and we try to pick out stocks that outperform the market.
For example, this year by shorting SPX and selecting stocks such as XOM and CAT, we would still have a positive gain by earning the spread between the SP500 and XOM. This strategy would significantly reduce volatility and shows that the manager has a superior ability to pick stocks.
Thus, the term Portable Alpha.
This market was supposed to bounce to 1318 on SP but not passed 1322 which would be the confirmation of the invalidation of the continuing downside which has not yet been breached.
Bad GDP numbers for Europe and USA. Bernake better keep his printing press running full speed pulling double shifts. I believe it will be the only thing keeping the market up.
Very true. However, Bernanke’s intention to print money might not be to totally destroy the dollar. Think about it, we are mainly seeing the inflationary pressures outside of the U.S especially in emerging market such as China as well as under developed countries such as the ones that are currently in the midst of revolutions in Africa.
Perhaps his intention is to destroy those countries and in turn put U.S in a better position. This is one of the reasons I am bullish on the dollar especially against the Japanese Yen and shorting emerging market and buying high quality U.S stocks and selected commodities.
It’s kind of counter intuitive. But I think Bernanke’s action is for the benefit of the U.S.
http://bradstradingchart.blogspot.com/2011/02/this-market-was-supposed-to-bounce-to.html
I think the commentary is a bit too assuring like the market is suppose to be bouncing to 1318? The market is not suppose to do anything. This is one of the reasons hard core Elliot wavers got burned in 2010 and so far in 2011. Big macroeconomic shifts and policy changes can skew the “supposed” move and one has to keep that in mind when trading.
So far the market is still in a bullish trend. That won’t change until SP500 breaks below 1250.
Just as I anticipated EEE is back on a tear up!
As with the train to paradise up up and away. Enjoy your ride.
What a nice move! What happened to this stock? Was it due to a 1 to 12 split and split back or did it really go up like 400% this year?
Well actually it is up around 588% take a look here http://www.zacks.com/research/get_news.php?id=056l4069
What a nice move. A great penny stock success story.
Yea like the #1 great penny stock success story of the year. Watch this one push up to the 5-6 dollar range if not more. JMHO
Definitely worth doing some chart/fundamental analysis on. Let me do that right now.
Wow, Valueengine places a fair value on EEE at $7.89. Yea the stock may very well double from here. But it’s just so volatile right now. This stock is more hyper than REE.
3 weekly lower high, lower low. it may goes up, but the chance to drop off the face of the earth is pretty high.
yea it plunged 25% since Feb. 7th. This is a speculative microcap stock.
I seriously doubt that it drops off the face of the earth. Yea it has fallen 25% since Feb 7th so what? This stock was .52 in late Dec. It is up overall 600%! I will gladly have a stock go up 600% and fall 25% and then run back up another 100% any day of the week. Do your DD on it. I am in it with 3k @ 2.05 just wish I had another 3k of it at that price.
Agreed. 600% jump and then fall 25% is a natural correction. Very wise of you jumping in at 2.05. I wasn’t even aware of this stock between my market cap limit is set to 200 million. This stock has a market cap of 60 million. Definitely keeping an eye on it. I dug all the research I could. There isn’t much coverage on this stock. The last serious coverage research was from Goldman Sachs back in 2006.
Again actually alot has happened lately with EEE take a look here: http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/keyDevelopments?rpc=66&symbol=EEE.P×tamp=20110202080500
Definitely encouraging. I hope it will pull back a bit more maybe to the $3 handle and I will probably get into my initial position.
Was very encouraging today with a 10% up day for EEE!
Sam,
Again please restrain from making these exaggerated comments. We really need to make sure all posts are high quality at this point. So I am going to delete this post of yours. Remember quality is always better than quantity.
Thanks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
zSun83, would like to get opinion on DG long term, at your convenience. Personal feeling is that consumer spending gets cut with future inflation/deflation? Regardless, the rich can continue to get richer, but the rest of us will have to become more efficient. Your take?
Hi there,
Nice solid uptrend in place and it’s definitely a good agriculture bet. Personally, I prefer AGU, which I currently hold. I think wheat/grains will have to continue to go up simply based on the world population/grain production ratio. A potential problem with BG is that its profit is tied to the cost of commodities. So here is a simple analysis:
BG has three segments:
- Oilseed processing – the profitability will be tied to a various of factors such as oil price, wage, machinery
- Producing and supplying of fertilizer to farmers in South America – Very bullish here because if wheat/grains are in higher demand, fertilizer would be highly demanded. Again, alternative plays here could be POT and MOS
- Selling of packaged vegetable oils worldwide – Again, this is tied to a variety of factors such as transportation costs, oil price, etc.
So overall, BG should be a good long term investment.
Thanks for analysis, but was looking at DG–Dollar General. Agree with your assesment on BG–holding POT.
Oh haha. Sorry about that. Dollar General is in a pretty weak trend right now. Potential support at $26.85. I would hold Procter & Gamble instead though especially if you are looking at a long-term hold.
DG is too much dependent on consumer spending. If we have a double dip, this stock would take a much bigger hit for sure than PG.
I am good with that–had similar support. When happens, however, can see a decoupling of other high end retailers, with Main street looking for bargains. Thanks.
Yes. I would buy these more risky cyclical names at the bottom much like post March of 2009, any company was considered junk went up three or four fourfold. However, right now I think it’s time to be in defensive names.
Don’t know about post in 2009, but am becoming defensive, as you say. Thanks for good replies.
midday broad market update http://bidhitter.com/futures/midday-update/midday-broad-market-update-for-2252011-es_f-spx-spy-cl_f-qqqq/
Hey Bidhitter,
Thanks alot for making that link. However, could you please make more actual comments? Directing traffic to your site is not a problem for us as long as we have reciprocal benefits.
Sold BRCM may 35 i bought yesterday for +18%.
Am i too early?
Anybody think we drop again?
I was thinking POT calls, but unsure.. Advise?
Sam, I deleted your comment again. You need to avoid capitalizing certain word such as huge, profit, exactly. Please speak in a normal tone of voice and avoid any exaggeration – zSun83 (Tony)
JROD, you are good–keep in touch. Any thoughts on EEE, MAG?
what happened to the QQQQ’s in AH or are my charts playing trick on me
Can you share? Don’t see anything on my charts or bids.
looks like there was one of those really long tails on the candle that often happens, however when I loged om it was a solid red bar that appeared as a selloff..it quickly changed to a skinny tail when I refreshed the computer..I had logged on via my mifi in the car, so there might have been a delay