3:32pm
Rally on the 1 minute SPY looks like a channel.. a break of the ascending channel (bear flag) could be the entry point you’re looking for to go short again.. only if it happens:
2:23pm
Anybody shorting this small little rally we have below?
11:26am
SPY 1 minute triangle formation, which way do we break out?
10:35am
AAPL getting a little bit of a bounce on some rumors that it’s launch of the ipad and iphone5 will not be delayed as previously expected. That said, take a look at th3 5 min chart below. We still see higher lows over the course of the last 2 days.. even if we get one higher high, it would need to surpass 345 for me to even think bullish short term:
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9:36am
It’s still looking pretty bad out there.. if the market wants to recover it will have to pass 132.28 before i can get back to a bullish intraday trade. Of course in the long term we’re still on the bullish side, but for today i want to short the market on any slight push up.
I don’t like this gap that we created. I really wish that we would have closed it yesterday morning…we were close. We tagged some moving averages/trend lines and fell down pretty hard. With the gap created, we still might get one more push up, but I will short any weakness early tomorrow morning and then wait for a 3-day confirmation to add if we get more bearish activity. I’m just not sold on this long weekend, gap down top…based on some idiot in a third world country that only supplies 2% of oil production. Now if the Jasmine Revolution would take hold…that would be something to see.
We’re going to be testing some support trendlines/averages tomorrow and we’ll see if we can hold. We already broke a rising wedge, but that may have been a set up to create another support line for the up channel. If we head higher, I’m looking for a double top, or a rise to the 1376 area in early to mid-March. I’m going to be paying more attention to the moving averages. It’s gonna take a lot to get these pointed south…but with no QE3, debt ceiling question mark, government shutdown question mark, middle east crisis, looming dollar crash, credit downgrades, muni bond blowups, etc…you can’t help but be long-term bearish.
Side note…What’s up with the Internet kill switch the government is trying to pass? Are they thinking the same type of turmoil is going to happen here when all hell breaks lose? We need to rise up as a people when the OUR government is starting to force our hand. They’re violating the Commerce Clause with health care, not to mention removing our rights in other arenas…it’s only a matter of time before we’re marching in the streets.
we practically did close it yesterday morning. We rallied and failed to close it by a few 0.10s. I think a fail to close a gap is more bearish than closing a gap.
Home sales rose, but prices at 9 year lows.. ouch.
Holding short here, but may close leveraged positions towards EOD due to Thursday super POMO’s. I will likely leave “core” shorts of SH and VXX on and may sell or lighten up TZA (depending on today’s action).
Still playing possible pullback to 1180′s or so based on very LT charts. It’s a large risk, large reward play.
It looks like we could see quite a bit of downside but in order to see an H&S reversal form.. we actually need to fall ALL THE WAY DOWN to 101.30 on SPY.
ERX what a crazy ETF —> Go figure this one out!!!. I am out because I have no clue about what it is doing. So I am taking profit. I am closing 400 shares of ERX at a price of 86.03 bought at an average of 84.60 –>$572 profit
My total holdings are:
1000 shares VXX at an average of 28.35 average.
1000 shares of TZA @12.37.
500 shares EDZ@22.42
500 shares HP@62.82
Guess earlier futures did not tell the real story of risk off once again? Or will dip buyers turn this around?
Here’s an overview of what’s moving and what’s not
http://www.smartmoney.com/map-of-the-market/
Leaning towards holding all my shorts overnight, including TZA. I like how the market is slowly trading lower, without any panic selling. Perhaps this will continue to creep down for a bit? Mentality on many blogs is to continue to buy the dip, the trend is up…….
I am making a killing my accounts are glowing green like toxic waste…….By the way EEE is a buy at these prices 3.45. I am buying 2000 shares with a stop around 2.89.
That could be the low for the day…
Seems like my prediction of a red february might come true after all. Hard to believe it would happen Mid Feb.
This may be an answer to Idan’s earlier question about which way this breaks. I Feel like cranking up the doors “break on through to the other side”.
Come on momma, lets go for 1200′s SPX then 1100′s.
Heat map for the market (post 5) looking more like a fire zone with the only green being the safety plays plus energy / and of course cigarettes.
In Libya, tanks are reportedly in the cities and the mad hatter is now blaiming Canada for the unrest. just like a South Park Episode, Blame Canada.
Not sure this is time to buy the dip. Perhaps it’s time to sell the rip (what rip?).
Now about the technicals…. I expect a bounce around 12020-12050 soon. This will be an intermendiate support because the 60 minute SMA is exactly at those levels. If we breeze past it all hell will break loose and the next support is 11825-11850. If we break this one then the bottom of the ascending channel from the crisis lows is next which could hit anywhere between 11200-11400 depending on how steep is the sell off. The very last support before a crash of biblical proportions is 10921 and here you can kiss your bull market good bye……..
In summary:
First Stop 12050
Support 11825-11850
First Line of Defense 11200-11400
Run for the hills the dam broke10925-10950
Mr. Top Step video
http://mrtopstep.com/2011/02/23/rich-canlione-traders-analysis-sp-futures-bonds-mideast-and-oil/
video includes SPX support levels ~ 1309 = very strong support and then 1281ish I believe. Then to quote JROD “run for the hills”
Unless something drastic changes, I will continue to hold the TZA i bought yesterday afternoon. It’s now up a touch over 7%, so I don’t believe even super POMO tomorrow can cause too much pain for me.
WTF is going on with
EEE?? Diving like a fricking rock.
i thought it was down 10% this AM, if so it’s coming back
Finally, VXX is working the way I hoped
Midday broad market update http://bidhitter.com/futures/midday-update/midday-broad-market-update-for-2232011-es_f-spx-spy-cl_f-qqqq/
This is the first day, time, event, situation, since I have been monitoring VXX that it touches and trades above the 50SMA on the daily. I do not know about you but to me this is very significant and if it holds things are looking ugly. With all this middle east distraction there is a piece of news that has not been discussed as much. BOA writes of about 10Billion US$ in credit card debt I quote; They took two years to disclose this information since I guess was in conflict with the green shoots talk during the recovery. Add to this the comment from Polsser today about breaking up big banks and you knwo there is something else out there other than middle east. Just my two cents….
“During the last two years, Bank of America and other banks have written off record amounts of credit card debt as consumers have failed to make payments during a period of high unemployment. Bank of America and other credit card companies typically write off a loan after its late more than 180 days of non-payment”
http://bnn-news.com/2011/02/23/world/bank-america-credit-card-subsidiary-writes-20-billion-dollars/
As clock work the market bounced close to my first stop (see note 11) or 12050. Now this bounce should take us close to 12125-150. If we trade below this level I keep my shorts into tomorrow. If we trade above I will probably sell half of my position to reduce my short exposure.
This pull back could be considered as a bear flag as long as it stays below 12150
I am going all in here and buying 5000 shares of UCO.
I have very little cash left but I am up about 9% since last week and can afford to get greedy here
My total portfolio now looks like:
1000 shares VXX at an average of 28.35 average.
1000 shares of TZA @12.37.
500 shares EDZ @22.42
500 shares HP @62.82
2000 shares of EEE @2.45
5000 shares of UCO @12.52
100% invested and about 15% up for the year with 10% of this week
Your going to buy UCO?
This whole thing is overblown, oil will not stay this high because it will crush margins and further fuel the economy.
huge miss on RIG earnings (released early)
Link to their website (reposted from another site) http://www.deepwater.com/_filelib/FileCabinet/pdfs/4Q10-Adjusted_Earnings_and_EPS.pdf?FileName=4Q10-Adjusted_Earnings_and_EPS.pdf
Apparently shares r falling
post above me reminded me so something funny.
Type in BankOfSatan.com in your web browser (clean). Capitals are mine just so you can see the words break.
I’m bearish, so probably biased, but here’s a video from Thomas DeMark on CNBC (from yesterday I believe). He’s a technical guy looking for an 11% decline
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=3000006535&play=1
So your telling me that $5 gap on oil will never be filled?
I call BS.