12.15 a.m.
Tze:
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2:11pm
Look like my AT&T short at 27.85 was triggered today… i’m putting a stop at 27.80, so i can confirm a profit… i could still see a re-test of such level before we really push lower. My stop will also trail by 35 cents from here.
2:06pm
I have been SO busy today, but boy do i love the action. You betcha this means we are likely to go lower… i want us to close below 128.25 today to start piling in short. I’m really loving a lot of my trades 
I TOLD YOU about BAC.. RETEST Â at 14 and then SHORT!
7:27am
Sorry was in a flight most of the day yesterday. Looking at the SPY it seems pretty obvious that the SPY keeps trying to break back above the red ascending resistance line that i drew back a long time ago. If it does so, we will get a massive squeeze of at least 1.5-2%. But it makes more sense to be neutral here, and wait for a shorting opportunity rather than get ahead of ourselves.
I got stopped out of my EUR/USD short trade with minor losses (bout 0.1%).
Keep looking at AT&T (T). I mentioned the H&S formation, with a neckline at 28… yesterday we almost broke down it.
Make sure you visit http://www.spoofee.com for today’s news and deals!
Today’s Schedule
GDP 8:30 AM ET
Employment Cost Index 8:30 AM ET
Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM ET
Current holdings
Long AMZN – I know this is going to hurt. Plan to buy more to $average if we start above $168, but otherwise letting go with the loss
Long APA
Long BAC
Long EUO
Long HDB
Long INTC
Long KO
Long TMV – adding as we dip, selling as we go higher
Short BIDU
Short HES
Short PSA
Also thinking of buying some yuan… thinking of…
All Bets are on the GDP number I would say 3.2 or lower we tank 3% easily. 3.7 or 3.8 we rally.
Still holding my TZA
Remember guys, nothing goes up in a straight line, at the rate we are going IBM will be $300, APPLE will be $600, and NFLX will be $500.
Most emerging markets have topped, including Bopesta, Indonesia, now Egypt.
Emerging Markets bottomed early in late 2008.. looks like they topped early too in late 2010.
Look at these huge sell-offs, first with Apple, then Amazon, now Ford.
I like my short calls on FAS, XOM, AAPL, ALL of them.. I do agree with Idan that they could squeeze the last 0.5%, but I would not be surprised to see a 2-4% sell-off in the next 3 months, at which point, if it caves more than 4% say bye-bye to the bull market, and hello to the bears..
Didn’t SAM say Ford was going to $20?
Last Trade: 17.72
Trade Time: 8:29AM EST
Change: -1.07 (-5.69%)
Bid: 17.71 x 400
Ask: 17.72 x 1,100
Sam who? Just kidding. LOL
the consensus calls for 3.5%. Here is my guess of what the reaction will be.
3.2% or Below = Market sells off 2-3% over next week.
3.3% to 3.7% = Market bumps around at Dow 12,000 for a while in consolidation mode. Breaks decidedly above mid to late February.
3.8% or Above = We blow through Dow 12,000 on our way to 12,300 to 12,500 before we have the next correction…which could be back towards 12,000.
-ZACKS.COM
Advance Q4 GDP: +3.2% vs. +3.5% expected, +2.6% prior. Chain-weighted price index +0.3% vs. +1.5% expected, +2.1% prior.
Nasty number…….. Market will sell of over the next week atleast 3 % HOld on to your shorts!
OK folks after the GDP number amzn and F I am more confident about my prediction of a red february. There are a lot of headwinds and upside gains are limited at this point Vs downside.
Q4 Employment Cost Index: +0.4% Q/Q vs. +0.5% expected, +0.4% prior. +2% Y/Y vs. +1.9% prior. Missed expectations. My guess consumer Sentiment number will lower too. 3% decline over the next coming week, here we come!
The dead cat bounce of BGP is in full swing. As I mentioned I bought this stock at 0.92 and it is currently at 1.11. I own 2000 shares for a decent ROI. I expect much more upside today. I will sell this stock today since this will be a short lived short squeeze.
My current holdings are as follows:
I am shorting NFLX 200 shares @207.55
I am long ZLC 4000 shares @4.73
I am long BGP 2000 shares @0.92
Today I am looking to start shorting the market–> VXX, TZA, EDZ, Etc will be my preferred choice
Here is something really interesting.
Back in March of 2009 we rallied 289.44 points then dropped 90
Right now we rallied 289.82
Imagine if we drop 90 points that would put us at 1200 on SP.
with Bad GDP number, and Bad Job Claim number, Bad Durable goods number, and my guess is consumer sentiment has dropped!
All I can Say is
Batten down the hatches!
Yesterday although I was long on F and made tons of money and although i said earning will be grate but later afternoon I saw one mistake from big oys and that only was enough for a monster trader like me to exit and booked my tons of money. And in last post I told you i exited.
This is one of the MONESTERLY forecast and HUGE HUGE HUGE powerful trade I do.
SWBB
All this information may not digest until next week because the market very rarely tanks hard on a Friday, they must want to keep everyone happy so they can go & spend $ on the weekend. Keep those retail sales up
As I projected ANW is at 10.70 she heading to 10.
Where is the nasdaq numbers?
I have bought an indecent amount of shorts today basically going all in to the short side. However I have bought protection buy buying oil long
I have sold BGP @1.02 for a small $200 gain
Can any one view the Nasdaq real time numbers?
I have bought 1000 shares of VXX @29.16
I have bought 1000 shares of EDZ@21.60
I have bought 2000 shares of TZA@14.92
I have bought 2000 shares of UCO
My holdings are:
200 shares of NFLX@207.55 (Short)
1000 shares of VXX@29.16 (Long)
1000 shares of EDZ@21.6 (Long)
2000 shares of TZA@14.92 (Long)
2000 shares of UCO@11.03 (Long)
I sold ZLC for a loss @4.70 bought at 4.73
I have about 10% cash left
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Nasdaq OMX Group Inc. /quotes/comstock/15*!ndaq/quotes/nls/ndaq (NDAQ 24.92, -0.29, -1.15%) experienced an issue disseminating its U.S.-based indexes Friday that prevented market participants from being able to view key market measures including the Nasdaq Composite and the Nasdaq 100.
Further details on the issue were not immediately available, said a representative from Nasdaq’s Global Data Products unit.
He noted the issue was affecting Nasdaq’s U.S.-based indexes including its PHLX indexes–which include a number of sector-based indexes–but that global indexes were unaffected.
“We don’t know anything further yet but they’re looking into it,” the representative said.
Amazing the same time Amazon is tanking $15
I was planning my move on Monday but the evidence is to hard to hide and the market will phase extreme pressure to the downside. Egypt events should be a cause of concern because it could spread to Saudi Arabia. That is my rationale on oil going up from here. Oil up is a damocles sword on the back of this recovery.
I know VXX has been a sucker bet lately but it is designed to thrive in times like this one. Lets see if my trouble child behaves this time….
Market is now going to roll over with all the bad numbers. About fricken time.
Bought 1000 FAZ @ 8.27
Bought 1000 FAZ @ 8.35
Plunge you sucker!!!!. Let me get a bat and hit this puppy in the head so it won’t get up!! Got VXX?
This is what happens when a market is overbought and price for perfection. Names like F, AMZN to name a few have insane valuations. NFLX is another bubble and soon will burst. We have learned nothing and I hope government steps aside and stops inflating and allow price discovery to take place. Is this good for a market when relative save names like F, AMZN who are good companies (do not get me wrong) drop 10-15% in one day?. Well keep POMO the market and this is what you get.
By the way who owns EEE?. This stock is up today big and my prediction of 3 still is intact. In a sell off day it is up. That is call divergence and it tells you that there is something there…
I have a 3000 share position @ 2.05 and loving it with EEE.
I got stopped out at 2.37 or so. I scale down on this position given my bearishness on the market. Good that you have maintain this position. Now if Oil starts going up, be sure this is a long play on oil since Carbon will be a growth engine again.
I will hold this well into the 3′s if not 4+
I don’t think buying on the dip this time is going to work. I see a lovely RED FEB coming
i do believe we are going to have a more significant dip than usual as we have hit a major resistance area and it is the end of the month so profit taking would not be a huge surprise, but what i don’t get is why you believe that buying the dip won’t work this time…i would agree with you if this was a normal market without the fed coming in as the safety net…it is quite clear, the fed will not let the pullback get out of hand,,,they are in here until june…the market will not have a chance to fall apart until they are out…they made that very clear sept 1st…i say the 50 day is the stopper…the only think imo to change this would be a huge dramatic unexpected event in the world that just spooks every hedge fund and mutual fund to pull the money….128 on the spy will tell you if they are going to buy the dip or head down lower maybe to test the 50…probably not today
How about Egypt? This could be the unexpected event you are talking about. Its implications are big: Israel is next to it. Mubarak has been US friendly and an unstable egypt is not good for Israel nor it is for Saudi Arabia nor it is for oil. Oil going up will stop the FED efforts on its tracks since they can not further weaken the dollar as they been trying to do (on a controlled way). I am not saying this will happen but definitely it could turn into that. VXX is showing big hedges going on.
If you want to be long start looking into green technologies. Solar, wind, commodities like Coal should soar
yep..it could be..I hope it is…not because I want chaos..just think the market was getting to far a head and it felt rigged…see what happens at 1280…if the fed was not present, something like this would take us way down…the irony…they are rioting for several things, one of which is increased food prices…..another effect of the wonderful qe2
I TOLD YOU MONSTERLY THAT ONCE market reach SPY 131 it will drops like a MONSTER. I TOLD YOU MONDAY IS THE DAY> well I only was shy a few cents to my forecast price and ONLY one day as far as the time. MArket dropped like a MONSTER just like what I TOILD YOU.
HUGE HUGE HUGE HUGEB HUGE HUGE profit was made and booked only today into the downside by SPY puits
HUGE HUGE HUGE
MONSTR MONSTER MONSTER
SWBB
This is with yesterdays POMO’s settling, and more POMO today. Could this be cracking for real? (Hope so).
UUP doing ok too, maybe Dollar doesn’t care to drop anymore, no matter how much additional funds are injected into the system?
commentary re: potential VIX breakout from a fairly balanced trading site http://www.stocktiming.com/Friday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
Pomo schedule http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html
Holding short with TZA and some UUP but really looking to migrate more to an unleveraged short to avoid some decay. Planning on holding short more than ST, even if I hedge it at times.
LOL, my TZA buy of 2 – 3 days ago is green again, I didnt expect that so fast.
I also don’t really spy down greater than 1% in a long long time.
Wonder what the 3PM bots will do?
*really s/b recall
Major uprising in Egypt this market is going to fall bigtime hold on!
If oil is going haywire airlines should suffer severely. They should be a good short…
So is my TZA i bought 10,000 shares at $14.25 been holding them. I am sure we will go down to 1250-1260 on SP
I did my part to help fuel the drop, just sold AAPL I bought @ ~ $60 / share for my daughter and her 6 cousins. I probably should have sold 1/2 last year and 1/2 this year to minimize / avoid paying tax on gain, but rates are low enough.
TIMBER!!
VXX kicking ass. My portfolio is glowing green almost looks radioactive. I can not believe my eyes and my timing was just perfect….Now I am intigued as to why financials have not joined the party. FAZ is underperforming other shorts. I do not own FAZ
I own FAZ and picked more up @ 8.24
GDP report sucked, F sucked unemployment sucked Egypt is a riot what more will it take? I bet the TV president comes on.
ANW will be 10 before the day is over took a short @ 11.02. This stock is in fact a direct correlation to the market don’t kid yourself. I have always said it will take international upheaval to distroy our markets and it is RINGING TRUE today!
I doubt this market will get any significant bounce today. I highly doubt any buyers wanting to buy into the weekend with all the headwinds. In all I see the sell off accelerating into the afternoon and I will not be surprise to see us hit 11700-11-725 range today and get a small bounce to end below 11800s. My prediction is we end around 11750-11775.
it shouldn’t..but 1280 is holding…I’m telling you..the fed does not want a meltdown….I would be very surprised if we do not sell off into the close…if we don’t..this market is rigged
Ok guys , I MOSTERLY sold all my puts. SPY should hold above 128 for now.
SWBB
HUGE HGUGE MONSTER money was made. HUGE HUGE HUGE HUGE
SWBB
So Sam, just so I can benefit from your monster scary trading skills, that 1.5% drop on SPY was the monster drop you’ve been telling us about for weeks.
Now we are at support? So we rise from here, correct?
—-
I’m the dumba$$ dumb money staying short, If 1.5% drop is a monster drop, I’m hoping for a mother flucker tital wave of at least 2%
I believe sam said the fall was to happen monday and anything before would be fake…lol…monday would be up huge and then a fall if I recall his words correctly
robert..what is your target price for ftk..that one keeps going up up up..little pullback today, but thought it would roll over on a drop in the market like this…I haven’t been able to find much on this stock..everyone has the target at $2..thought you might know more..thanks
Suez (sp?) canal to close due to protests (per Bloomberg Radio, something is burning there). Oil to pop up.
Likely just chatter ??