9:33am
SPY opening up slightly… i’m not sure it will hold on to gains today.. there is some resistance right above in the 129.55-129.70 area. If it breaks through that it can rally much further, I’d rather stay neutral today. Look for retest trades only, so you can put a tight stop, and a trailing stop when in profit.
8:45am
Took a short overnight at Eur/USD as I mentioned I wanted to do yesterday. The entry point is 1.3709. My stop is at 1.3740, and i’ll lower it soon. This is exactly my favorite type of trade. I LOVE RETESTS:
1:43am
Today we’re going to hear from the FOMC… we’ll get some more insight into their continued purchase plan. Also, we’re going to get some oil numbers, and see why oil has been pulling back in the last few days.
Yesterday’s late rally saved the bulls from a potential reversal. With that.. i remain neutral on the market with an edge towards the bulls, until we see a reversal candle. ANW ended the day below my breaking out point, which means it’s not a buy yet. To be sure, as mentioned in my comments yesterday, you might want to wait for a breakout of 11.50.
Don’t forget to visit http://www.spoofee.com to see today’s deals!
Today’s Schedule
- MBA Purchase Applications 7:00 AM ET
- New Home Sales 10:00 AM ET
- EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET
- 5-Yr Note Auction 1:00 PM ET
- FOMC Meeting Announcement 2:15PM ET
Current Positions (dangerously bullish)
- Long HDB
- Long INTC
- Long JNPR
- Long KO
- Long RHT
- Long ROVI
- Long TMV
Tooks profits on JNPR (+6.2%)
Took some profits on TMV(+2.2%), will continue to add TMV if we drop
Shorted SYMC@17.86
They are announcing earnings after hours and I just can’t imagine people are still buying Norton products. Especially with Windows 7 having their own antivirus and many people moving over to a more stable OS (OSX/Win7/tablet?)
This is really just a gamble, but don’t you agree? Who’s buying that crap?
Shorted SYMC@17.86 and Bought NFLX@182.5
Both for the same amount.
For what it’s worth Cramer’s alert said he’s selling ABT to buy WLP.
Following Idan on shorting Euro. Since there was no FXE left to short, I bought EUO
Shorted HES@79.7 (upper trendline)
http://twitpic.com/3tgs88
On the edge in the east?
The above chart is from the one person I’ve seen who’s called s&p moves perfectly for at least one year. His trades are much more it or lt. He believes we’re going to s&p 500 of 1000 by 3rd qtr 2011. I’ve watched his calls for about a year-said to myself no way- but he’s proven to me that he has a gift of turning off the noise and holding his positions.
good morning
thanks for the chart, the chart made by xtrend. they are known as perma bear.
robert … I think we are in bull markey, i hope you just consider the information.
sol was wiped out about year and half ago going short.
drive carefully it is snowing in ny
thx, yes, it’s ugly outside.
Atilla has been so spot on with both rises and falls, it’s scary. As I’m sure you know, he trades more long term. He admits there will be many large rises durign which he will not cover.
I’m putting a relatively small amount on the bet of SPY dropping, just may need to remove leverage of bear juiced up ETF’s to minimize decay
http://www.xtrenders.com/2011/01/review-of-2010.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
A recent blog post. Note he doesn’t make Short term calls
SP hasn’t breached the 1296 level as long as that holds I dont see a confirmation of a new up movement. I do see small cap stocks getting weak and mid cap are starting to follow
Still holding my 10,000 TZA bought at $14.25
Woo, do you have an updated EW count. I was obviously way way way off thinking that yesterday was the conclusion of the 5th subwave of wave C, Pwave 2 or B. What is your projection of this 5th wave on the SPY?
I look to see ANW to fall to 10.85. It was hit hard last November with disappointing numbers and is having a hard time recovering stay away from it.
nice H&S on the 1min DOW.
I was stopped out of EEE yesterday @2.36 so I am only have a small position of 2000 shares of BGP@0.92average
I am about 100% cash at the moment and extremely bearish on the market prospects moving forward. More on next posts
As I sit here we are in the 9th straight week of gains for the DJI. I went back several years and I have not found a similar performance…Not only that we are up is that the market has shoot up about 20% in that period ignoring any disturbing side and pricing a perfect recovery.
So Today is the FED meeting and yesterday was the state of the union. I would be interested in connecting both events after today FED release. But my guess is that the FED will basically stay the course and try to disguise any inflation implications (perhaps some verbage saying that it has flattened out etc). So a no event is what I am expecting today. However I think the underlying scenario based on yesterday’s presidential address is that we are in deep shit but we will be optimistic about are prospects….
More about the implications later…Have to go
So the underlying theme is that the US has to stop spending. Yesterday there were clear indications of budget cuts that will be made across the board from Defense to Education. The FED is Max out with QEII and I highly doubt a QEIII program this is it. Now they have to try to think of their exit strategy and the months to come you will start hearing about that more. We are in the last stages of the bull market. Growth will not be there to support the stock market further from these levels and neither will be QEII.
you would hope so, but I wouldn’t rule it out…too soon to tell….the fed loves to use things to buy more time f needed…a lot of chatter about jobs making a signficant turn for the better by april..if that happens than mission accomplished and no more qe needed..if it doesn’t…..they will reach back into the tool box, but it would definitely be a harder sell
With all of that in mind my predictions are as follows:
Market will go up until end of month and perhaps will go up as much as 12175-12225. The market should start to sell off in February I expect this month to tell a different story and be a red month. Now the sell off is a tricky one because a lot of people are waiting for it to get in.
So there are three scenarios:
1.- Sell off is a correction in which case the downside is limited to perhaps the low 11700s and the final push up starts with the suckers in believing in the recovery…Here is where smart money starts selling on the way up. If this is the case the upside is to 13050.
2.- Sell off is a consolidation and the market will start a long distribution period between 12200-and 10000s. Volatility will be the player here….
3.- Sell off is the real deal Bear Market starts. If this is the case then the market will retest go to 4 single digits again. Volatility will be the player here
I favored scenario 2 and I think volatility will pick up in the months to come. VXX TVIX etc are names you want to have.
Do not react to the fed announcement right away. I would wait until 3:00 PM or even tomorrow to have an indication. I will not trade this week since DAVOS and GDP are in the horizon. I will trade monday end of month!!!!
Fed report in. Initial report
ecconomic recovery continuing…blah …. blah …. blah…
growth insufficient to help with jobs
No rise in int rate
POMO to continue….
was there ever a doubt….dollar is getting crushd
gdp # will decide if we break this market wide open
This just tells me that as long as they are going to keep using the QE money the train to paradise will stay unstoppable and watch the SPX rise over 1300 and then some. Buy buy buy!! Enjoy the continued ride.
Hi, Idan/Woo
Want short NVDA, overbought, and negative divergence showed. Any thoughts? Thanks
Akira
Dont care how far the train goes on pomo fumes- not so sure its to paradise. Just tell me when to the derails.
…when the tain derails.
As long as everyone thinks there will be a correction there won’t be one. It will smack the market when you least expect it so CYA. It will derail when it derails but not anytime soon. Chances are it will happen in after hours and there will not be a dam thing you can do about it. We know they know and everyone knows this market is in bad shape but they just keep burying their heads in the sand and sidestep the issues. Bad news is good and good news is better as the train to paradise keeps a chugging away. JMHO
I agree with the after hours. That might be a good strategy to let it chug its way up during the trading hours and carry short overnight. Paradise is baked in already. There is nothing new they can throw at this to make it gap up 100 pts. But I can think of 100 reasons it could gap down.
Let me get this straight. To hold the course and continue doing what they are doing, the FED has to state that what they are doing is not working. Gotta love the logic there…
No basically they know that what they are doing is not working as fast as they want however what they clarify they are going to do is keep pumping money into the economy for if and when they stop, it will then fall off the tracks. They have no other choice and unfortunately they need to shut the blood off ASAP for they are past the point of no return. I look to the the market EOD back to flat if not red. Same ole same old boolsheet.
yes, but they other part of all this is to try and force china’s hand into raising rates and the value of their currency by flooding their market with money and importing inflation….
Can’t ya see that they want the Dow to close over 12000 and SPX to close over 1300 to make you think everything is all roses. What a riot.