Intraday Commentary ~ 12/17/2010
– December 17, 2010Posted in: Intraday Commentary, Stock and ETF Models
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1235 is the line in the sand. We bounced off of it today. I’m guessing that if we stay above that level for 2 more days, we’ll head up to 1291 to put in a top. Looks like we’re crafting a 5th wave here, but not sure if it has ended yet. I’m expecting a third wave and strong upside move in the next couple of days. After the 5th wave is complete, we should see an ABC move down from there.
That will be the next critical point and bull/bear fight. I will look to add shorts if we break the uptrend channel line. If we don’t, I will add longs to see a breakout into the 1400 area.
Holding the following
- Long ANW
- Long CHA
- Long FAS
- Short WM
Planning to
- Long TMV @ 46.5
- Long BIDU @ 96.5
Also check out the news today on http://www.spoofee.com because that will DEFINITELY move the market
No significant market news “scheduled” today.
Got impatient, back in on TMV @ 47. Will add if we fall.
ok no one rub it in.. I know I took a hit on the TMV. It’s ok.. it’s ok. life goes on. i keep on telling myself that sometimes.
News happened last night. Tax cuts has been approved for all Americans for 2 more years. 2% payroll tax cuts for the workers, extended unemployment, tax incentives for solar, geothermal, ethanol companies. Oh, what a country. At least this game of kick the can was only for 2 years.
Personally, I’ve been doing well staying long with individual stocks. I’ve been avoiding my old favorites of faz fas Eev tna etc. I still continue to stay mostly in cash and even then lighten up over the weekend. I really like finding ideas for individual stocks on stocktwits. Com. If you look at “all streams” on the right.of page they show what stocks are trending. Gives me an idea of what other traders are buying. My version of SAMs swbb.
And Moody’s said this am Ireland likely not to default. No shit. Before too big to fail \ post Lehman I am fairly comfortable that nobody will allow anyone to fail. I suppose that’s why VIX so low.
Quadriple Options expiration today. GLTA.
Anyone have any stocks they love? I love and sometimes hate Ftk. Love that it’s volatile and tends to recover from most eps. I hate lack of info. It’s also thinly traded. Someone was adding larger positions yesterday-but who knows if it was smart $. But they were buying a few ~ $100k lots which are big buys for this. I may lighten up a bit today if it pops just so I don’t hold over weekend. I want to be a fat pig but not a pork sandwich.
Eps = dips
Autocorrect = annoying
Have limit order to sell a touch more than 1/2 my FTK (1500 shares) if it goes back up to $4.35 today. Just taking some $ off the table. If it sells, will be left with 1000 shrs wtih average cost $4.07 / shr. If it doesn’t rise will likely add stop on the remaining 1000 shares and I’ll lighten up that way.
Look at ITMN, wow. Calls up huge as shares jumped 94% this am. MI also getting a lot of chatter on stocktwits, up nice.
ITMN apparently popped after hrs yesterday.
tradermarsh
$ITMN Dec 15 $CALL gains 14000% this am!!
big buyers in cbs
On a day like these I am selling LOCM @6.44 (bought 6.00). I am also selling WRES, URRE and CENX for a profit. I will keep ZLC (Up more than 10% since I gave it to this board). My portfolio is now about 70% cash and positioned to start playing to the downside with TZA and SCO. ZLC will hedge my longs….
SPY getting darn close to green, TNA now green, TZA red. Unreal.
CIEN, another one I never bought but I watch, it’s been a solid performer (long). Like AAPL, I keep saying I can’t buy at these levels.
My current holdings. small positions though…
AEZ, AMRN, AUDC, KKD, PLG, SIGA, SPRD, STV
Good morning gang
Today looks like a whole lot a nothing is going to happen so i am taking my ball and going home 
..In cash until next week will look for a good entry on DRYS or something like that and ride it until the new year other than that not much to doHave a great weekend all i will be around but not trading,gonna get the chicken wings and sausage ready for a big game Sunday night.The Pats can clinch the AFC east and get a first round bye if they win and the Jet’s lose…GO PATS !!!
Jet’s lose…. bite your tongue. We are the team to beat! Just ask Rex Ryan. And if you can’t beat em, trip em.
Enjoy the game, New England Pats are definitely hot right now. I hope Jets don’t lose by too much against Pittsburgh.
Put in bid for 300 AKS @ $15.99 for a relatively st hold (but will hold over weekend if I get buy).
Likely will not sell any FTK today as it’s in no where land at the moment.
filled AKS
12/17/10 12:44:00 FT2116961-878 BOUGHT 300 AKS 15.99000 Day Executed @ 15.99
CNBC fast money guys saying now wait to buy metals and then buy the dip.
I have been following this site from 2008 on stocktock. I am not sure why but I am getting the feeling the activity is dying down. Earlier we used to have +300 posts on a day-to-day basis and a lot of expert info on how to trade and do TA analysis.
There also used to be good posts on stocktock social with great charts and forecasting.
Should we move back to stocktock?
we’ve been trying to revamp things more. right now idan and i are the only active posters and have been so busy that it’s been hard to keep up. starting january things should be much better. we’ll have to build the site back up again. thanks for the input!
Monday has POMO activity in the morning and afternoon. Looks like a compressed schedule next week.
double top?
what are everyone’s thoughts?
next week will be low volume. pretty disgusting last couple of days, but we all knew that this could happen going into the end of the year.
I think we keep churning up and no correction till first week of jan?
thanks for that silver alert, added some slv calls and HL today…
there’s still some downside risk on silver short term, but i don’t think it is too bad. i’m going to wait a LITTLE bit longer before grabbing a big SLV call position.
there’s a slight chance we could just head towards 1280+ without any major retraces. getting scary to trade this market. if that were to happen, the counts would be a bit ugly. I still believe we have to see a 1280 minimum top, eventually though.
Ya, i have bookmarked the link you posted a while ago and as per that, by end of year we can see around 1270 and still keep hugging that trend line
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p36207254693&a=160222837
also post an updated one if possible…
Here is the unzoomed:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p41549959054&a=160222837
here’s a zoomed:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p42176350827&a=160222837
I also believe there are invisible hands holding this market up. Most every analyst I am listening to is very bullish – and amazingly they have been correct since S&P lows of 600′s. And I have to discount the doom and gloom talks of Dr. Noriel Robbini (sp) AKA Dr. Doom.
Nobody will let another LEH disaster happen, IMO you can bet on that. The financial system will not collapse (even though it may be healthier in the long run if it did).
That being said, I am scalping lately which I have never done. You used the analogy of a panther the other day. You’ve got to strike when the moment is right.
yeah…this is going to be an ugly end of the year and ugly beginning of the year.
right now my longer term target is 1309ish, but how it gets there…not sure yet. too many options available.
the 2 of this wave up went down to the 78% retrace. and this 4 went past the 23% but not to the 38%.
i’m going to be very careful with my trades here. may not even trade index related.
20 year chart of SPX:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p95898350087&a=184607634
ridiculous how it plays within that retrace area. it’s definitely bullish overall at the moment.
Blew my sale of AKS due to client call, was hoping to get in / out for a quick 2%. Now up 1.5% since buy earlier today and I will likely hold with stop locking in profit.
Likely will not lighten up any FTK today.
Wikkileaks founder telling the banks to beware…. that to me is scary.
AKS chart (not prepared by me).
I have a small 300 share position I opened this afternoon.
http://chart.ly/4cmfn82
got greedy / chicken. Stopped out with small gain on AKS (bt @ 15.99 sold @ $16.12. A lesson for me to strike quicker to take gains — especially between 3 pm and 4pm.
AAU looks good…
Per cnbc vix down 10% today and market is flat…..
lightened up a bit on FTK, again, just to take $ off table. Have limit order to sell 1000 @ $4.28. So far 700 of the 1,000 shares sold @ $4.28. I’ll hopefully either reload if it drops again to high 3′s low 4′s or sell remaining if we get to upper $4′s.
No mas for me. Good weekend all.
BTW AKS still strong… I definitely sold too early. I knew they were blowing stops on earlier drop but I did want to lock in small profit.