3:24pm
Market remains incredibly strong, especially the SPY at this point. There is no reason to short the market right now, don’t try and call a top. Keep it coming, play long on oversold stocks and hope that the S&P hits 1250 (next strong resistance). I would only get worried going long if we have a reversal day.
12:38pm
Did NFLX blow yesterday? possible… it’s okay to try and take a short if you have a very tight stop (less than 1%).
12:45am
Today is an incredibly important day. Not only do we have the jobs number coming out today, and tomorrow (for november) and home sales inforation but we also have the ECB’s announcement in the next few hours. Today and Friday will be the days that set the trend for the markets.
Here is the Fibonacci retracements for GS, and it looks like GS is following these support/resistance lines to the tee. Trade long above support, and short when support breaks, etc..
As you all guys know I told everone 2 days ago when market was down huge at open and when all people around the wrold were confused whether tey should go long or short I STRONGLY AND CONFIDENTLY psaid and TOLD YOU that I am buying FAS amd AMZN. I bught and I bought HUGE amount of SPY calls. HUGE HUGE HUGE profit so far.
I had plan to hold my longs until 1230 in s&p, but since the size of profit in some of my longs like SPY calls are very very very huge, I have to start selling and book my profit today and tomorrow, but I wil hold half of them for Monday also.
SWBB
job number in not out yet nither today nor tomorrow, but do not care. big boys are long i am long, no matter what is happening in job.
SWBB
Look at the below link. You will find how strong Mr Ben was supporting SPY 118 in last couple days. That was a very clear massage for STRONG and POWERFUL trader like me to go long huge 2 days ago when market was at SPY 118 support.
SWBB
http://www.etf-corner.com/markets/2010/12/spy-somebody-is-buying-this-market-.html
Well, well, well. Posting someone else’s link containing nothing more than a trendline and a topless man.
Not that there’s anything wrong with that.
SWBB indeed!
Jobless claims came out worse than expected imagine that. For the past several months jobless claims have not made any difference as to the markets going up or down except for today. Probably because we had the highest point gain since 9/1/10 yesterday is a good time to play the worse than expected jobs card. The real key for employment numbers I believe will be tomorrow. If they shoot up more than last month then everyone will be happy.
Jobless claims dont matter in this mkt and never did, otherwise we would have been down 60% in last 24 months instead of up. Any chance we see another triple digit gainer today???
Very possible lets see what the existing housing numbers are. IF they are good I would say yes for tripple digits
bought 10 SPY December 120 puts @ 1.44
10 Jan 121 puts
Are you still holding SPY put bought yesterday? Why add put more, it seems 1230 is minimum target.
Housing number will be good is my prediction
YEP not bad. Looks like we go to double top.
Well they were better than expected. See how they tripped the market up showing up 10% over last month but down 20% from 2009.
sold 20 SPY December 120 puts @ 1.34 (down 14.1% from my average of 1.56); -$440.00
too risky to play on the short side right now (but I thought it was worth a try)
still holding the 1000 SCO I bought yesterday @ 11.34
To do something other than poke fun at Sam…
I went long DD near open today and ESRX at close yesterday — short term holds, but not day trades.
For all you guys that kept trying to short it all day yesterday and today, I think you could put in a scalp trade and buy some puts between 1216-1222. Everything below that was just fuel for the bulls.
I still think we’re headed higher but I’m just giving better entry levels than 1180 for puts like the others were giving.
Ok SPX is in my range bingo baby! 1215
That rare tripple top is here like I predicted wowza!
What tripple top? Can you specify? I don’t see anything of that sort anywhere, but maybe I am just blind.
Look on SPX 1 year chart bro: 4/19/2010 1217.28, 11/1/2010 1225.85 and today 1216.49.
Oh, OK. that’s what you mean. IMO the time sequence between tops isn’t all that pretty (to satisfy the pattern requirements). But look at the negative RSI divergence on the weekly chart.
Just hit 1217.07 next stop 1220-1225? I believe IF it hits 1225 it will push even higher. JMHO
It’s mightily overbought according to the hourly STO and RSI, I think we will see a short term top today or tomorrow. One that I won’t be attempting to catch. IMO this is still the momentum velocity from yesterday’s leap playing out.
wedging on the 5min too
I would think they are blowing stops like mad for trapped shorts. Many traders went short since last week and this.
I’ve been burnt twice badly by going short in advance of when the market should have fallen, but somehow invisible hands keeps this market up.
I am staying long but watching carefully. I know it’s on borrowed time, but I can see a real rise continuing, at least ST. Our in house equity funds (all long) are mostly beating their indexes (except for one fund run by Neuberger). The last time I looked many mutual funds were not beating indexes, so I suspect they will hope to juice returns over the next few weeks.
And forget about our one bond fund, we are advising clients not to invest there unless they don’t need the cash for at least 18 months (the average bond duration is just under 2%). The managers running the funds agree, more downside risk in bonds than upside (How much lower can interest rates go vs how much higher can they rise).
And our safest offering, govt money mkt funds yield essentially zero.
So if people want any return, it must be equities.
BTW, in our monthly meetings with the fund managers, the equity guys have been overall bullish and they stay fully invested. Our investors are holding tight, unlike after the LEH collapse.
*average bond duration is just under 2 YEARS (not 2%)
I must admit I agree with Sam about SWBB’s.
I’ve also found I’ve had amazing returns (as has Morris and I am sure many others) by going against the grain (long when everyone is talking about the sky is falling). I’m certain a lot of that is luck, and I am sure a lot is that I am not technical enough to realize the broken trendlines, etc.
Even my KB homes buy of yesterday is up 6% as of right now. My FTK went from 10% down 2 – 3 days ago to 3% up, and that’s the poorest performing stock I am holding.
GLTA
VXX down 12% in 2 days tells you that there is nobody short. This stock adjusted for the split has gone from 144 to 44 in 6 months. Wish I would have shorted it 3 months ago.
On a long enough timeframe (3 years or so) a weekly chart of S&P500 now looks like a huge inverted H&S, with Feb 09 (or so) being the head. If this is what’s happening, looks like plenty of upside, barring any outside influences (ie attacks, etc). And BTW, I always heard that war is good for the market.
Has anybody noticed the bearish divergence (RSI/price) on the weekly SPX chart between the top in April and November 2010? If the market goes even higher than the Nov. top in this leg, it will become a tripple divergence. I have a hard time believing ithis rally can be sustained much beyond the bonus due date (the EOY).
Good morning all….No positions right now i will wait to see what if any news comes out of Washington about the tax cuts which i think will be a market mover temporarily anyway..At these levels i will be looking at quick scalps up and down until we break and close above 1227..I think if we break 1127 ona closing basis then 1250 going into years end is a possibility..
whats wrong with nflx?
Cramer last night said to sell-sell-dell 1/2 your position !!!!
BUY BUY BUY
bought 1000 QID @ 12.16
not looking for any kind of big move down but I think we might correct a little bit
Bought ERY at 26.31
That last loss really hurt @ 40%. Will sit and wait to see what’s going now before going back in, all cash for now.
market oversold on short term basis, needs some consolidation, or big set up for negative data tomorrow.
You mean “overbought”?
yes, sorry, just looking at my shorts!!
You think? 12 straight green 10 minute candles – seems normal.
In the world of Ben Bernanke 12 is considered as underperformance.
take into consideration candles, but trends on RSI are more important to me!
I guess correction could start from this afternoon.
out of sohaf–2.3. too volatile, look for new entry.
Tomorrow’s numbers may be baked in. Likely better than expected. Will have to go back to the drawing board.
I’m looking at 1275 as the min target.
Just put in tight stops on LIZ, CIEN and TNA – I don’t want to be a pig. I did give it a few cents to hopefully raise stops, but I believe I will sell most towards EOD if I don’t stop out.
Will hold FTK and KBH – both seem to be doing quite well…(both up over 6% so far today).
GLTA
Already sold the 500 LIZ @ 7% gain, raised stops on TNA / CIEN
now out of TNA – up ~ 12.5% in about a week
Robert, great trade on FTK–thought it to peter out at the 3 level, was wrong. Do you have a target?
Trying 300 BBRG – long bt @ $18.45
it is on fire again
(FTK)
4.33, I’m in on a retrace.
No one in the world can do what I do. I bought FAS when it was at 25.5. Stock dropped sharply HUGE more than 20%. I told everone I am goiing show you the world first class of tarding\. I told eveyone EXACTLY 3 days ago that I am buying 300 FAS when it was gapped down 3 days ago. I TOLD YOU, I TOLD BEFORE MARKET OPENED. I bought my shares and today also I bought 300e more at open. I TOLD BEFORE MARKET OPEN THAT MARKET HAS TO RALLY.
NOW I AM IN HUGE HUGE HUGE HUGE BHUGE HUGE profit.
You saw how STRONG i make a lossing trade to a very profitable trade.
THIS is the first class of trading . NOT EW that says , ok my first count says market goes yup, my second count sys market goes down, you you go and figure how to make money.
SWBB
Hmm, so let’s count: about a zillion times huge, huge, huge profit on your side equals my surprise you are still wasting your precious time with us instead of advising the giants amongst investors.
No one can doi what i do. HUGE PROFIT. People who do not understand the market yesterday were saying no you at==re underwater. I told them WAIT. Now you SEE.
HUGE HUGE HUGE profit
SWBB
POST YOUR BUYS. All 4 of them. FAS only hit 24 today, let’s see how far you were able to average down.
Did you lock in your HUGE HUGE HUGE profit like you told us you were going to this morning? BTW your failure to post one entry leads me to strongly suspect the same as many here, the only thing you are playing with is us.
no, himself also.
“I am goiing show you the world first class of tarding”
TARDING? You’ve got that right! BWAAAA HAHAHAHAHAHAHAH
Germany closed at a 2.5 year high today (per Bloomberg Radio)
Apparently good pending home sales is what is moving banking sector today (Bloomberg Radio). According to Bloomberg the banks have the most room to run in 2011. I’m still not brave enough to buy these.
Now they are saying POMO doesn’t hurt, no chit Sherlock.
(actually forgot, the above is per CNBC TV stream – not Bloomberg)
Strange they chose to ignore the Case-Shiller Index findings …. well, it actually isn’t strange. It’s called a selective hearing.
Broke down from the wedge on 5 min chart …
1217.50 needs to be taken out first
It was @ 1219.78
I meant it needs to take out 1217.50 first if it wants to go any lower. It never has. But, some of my friends known to be the weakest hands and the worst timers ever are informing me they are buying into the rally now. This must be the top then!!!
1221.89 so far
What’s wrong with LVS, it down 3.72 already.
FAS will continue going up up up. I booked half of my huge profit but will hold the other half for now until next we will get to FAS 26
SWBB
Did your huge profit break $100?
Retrace please…
Oil busted through 90 bucks a barrel holy moly!
just Brent crude over 90
I never took IMAX off my radar, I believe it was up almost 50% the other day from where I bought it (I lost track, I sold way too early). It’s now only up 37.6% so something may be going on. It’s down big % wise today…just pointing it out for people who like to short. Not a recommendation either way.
bought 1000 more SCO @ 11.04
like it, do you see data tomorrow disappointing? Or is this a short term correction trade?
I don’t know. Honestly, I don’t want to enter longs at this point and I’m bored so I’m taking a shot in the dark.
very safe, volatility is low, but oil has hit high. How can a person without a job go and spend monies for his children on Christmas, then fill up at the gas station? He/she could buy a new volt, but without income, will not qualify. Go figure.
Also, short term RSI is at base lows.
banks are flying, but BAC is having trouble getting passed significant resistance at 11.70 area
Creeping up 1221.89
TA would suggest you scalp it – so do you buy it?
If you thinking longer yes.
Tight stop it but chances are it will be taken out if you have it too tight. It could fall back tomorrow or even today before it cruises on up.
The small caps are lagging energy and financials on this rise. TZA looks pretty good here at 18.07 if you think we will correct soon.
I might buy some if it goes under 18.
TZA can rip your heart out if you are not careful. IF the market corrects then you will be fine but whatever don’t hold it long.
Uh, I’m aware.
Long as you are aware. 18.05 is year low
Yep, this ain’t my first rodeo!
bought 600 TZA @ 18.06
Market better start correcting now or look out below 18.02 now year low.
I will take my chance. Then will add.
What does the year low have to do with anything?
It tells me that it has a better chance of going lower geesh. Sorry to give any advice GLTY.
I’m sure that lots of bear ETFs are at or near their year lows right now. I’m also sure that lots of bull ETFs are at or near their year highs. So, what does a trader do? Is it safer to establish new long positions at or near the highs of the year or to initiate short positions at or near the highs of the year (which is obviously going to be at or near the lows of the year for bear ETFs like TZA)? I am in the latter camp but I could easily be on the wrong side of the trade right now. Time will tell.
I appreciate the advice but these 3X ETFs can do a lot of damage to an account on any given day, not just when the market happens to be at extremes. Best of luck to you!
Absolutely I know all to well what a 3x ETF can do to ruin a party if you are on the wrong side. Think of the poor bastids that had FAZ in the 200′s after it split and then dove hard to the ground. No I didn’t buy FAZ when it was in the 200′s but I did buy it in the low 100′s and got out in the 150 range pissed that I didn’t ride it to 200+ but the bottom line in any trading anybody does either short or long is to make a PROFIT.
I dunno but here is the shining hour to see if it all holds. I just have a feeling with having the best two day rally since July that they might just rip it away EOD. Be careful we will see. If it continues up towards the =+150 Dow then all is good in the hood for the upper 1220′s.
Europe up considerably, but not sure if US will follow. Still feel that tomorrow’s data will disappoint, or already baked in. Short term RSI is out of touch–can have a gap up, then some type of correction.
Well I believe the data will not disappoint and IF that is the case we could rally to the 1228-1238 range.
agreed, am building short positions per your call (gap up).
40 pts straight up on the S&P in 2 days on no real good news. Come on, housing starts??? As if anyone thinks that the housing market is getting better and banks have sold off all their shadow inventory – OK. If a good jobs number isn’t already baked in, then we should go up another 400 DOW pts tomorrow on bona fide good news, and down 400 on bad news.
what are you saying? If I understand, you would go long at this point, but not sure. Not knowing your trading strategies, would like to know when you would sell. Am I wrong?
As far as TZA is concerned I wouldn’t touch that falling knife until maybe 17.50-17.60 range and pray to
God the correction kicks in for a few days and scalp it hard and fast.
I will keep a tight stop on my entry to limit risk.
Now you understand where I was coming from! Just trying to save you some grief is all. The bottom line here is don’t touch that kind of ETF when the trend is UP be patient and let it come to you never chase anything.
I’m only down about 48 bucks right now which is nothing. The last week or so of trading has been really good for me so I can afford to take on some riskier trades right now. I do agree that normally it is not a good idea to get in a 3x position that is on the other side of a trend.
Rest assure if that SPX breaks that 1221.89 point we are off to the races. It’s best to be on the train to paradise, sit back and enjoy the scenery.
Trichet didn’t say a word so I guess no news on that nightmare on a stick is taken as good.
Idan, just curious, do you still have a longer term portfolio for investments rather than trades? Anything you especially like?
Thanks for your above post about being long vs short. I agree, but I did lighten up today as I was long from ~1180 SPY or so. 40 point move seemed to come awfully quickly. I cannot believe this bugger will continue up 1 or 2% per day.
I’m personally down to 3 positons (all long)
FTK
KBH (bt yesterday – boy did I get lucky)
BBRG (bt this afternoon – up 1.4%)
All 3 positions fairly small (about $5 / $6k each).
Looks like no selling into close 2 days in a row? WTF? Maybe in last 3 min?
Bullish but way too overbought to last for much longer. Maybe tomorrow comes the day?
Idan,
Any words of V? Any target?
ON* V?
Amazing market had best two days since July picking up 356.39 points in just two days.