10:48am
Here’s the daily EUR/USD, you can see we are approaching the 38.2% retrace.. i want to cover the short against the euro there because not only is there a retrace, but the former high is around 1.32 as well, which will definitely create a bounce. So cover in the 1.32-1.336 range.
1:44am
Despite a nice rally off the lows yesterday, the Euro is getting hit against the dollar, as portugal/ireland remains trouble (i suggest looking at the spreads for debt of those two countries, as they keep widening).
The dollar getting stronger can put added pressure on the market. Which side are you guys on? Dollar Long? What about SPY short?
Wow futures tanking big! Down 74 at the moment.
Conflict over at Korea
Look at what e beautiful post I gave you yesterday before market opened. Although I was supper bullish last week, one mistake on Monday morning before market opened revealed everything to me. below is my yesterday post:
*————————————————————————————————-
sam says:
November 22, 2010 at 8:26 am
In my opinion market does not move today, a little up a little down, BUT tomorrow market will gap down
SWBB
————————————————————————————————
Based on my huge accurate post I bought a huge SPY 115 calls yesterday (as I said market does not move) when SPY was at 118.9 then I sold all of them right at close and booked HUGE HUGE HUGE profit. THen I bought a huge juge huge SPY 125 puts right before close (as I told you i new market will gap down based on my post on Monday), Now I will sell 70% of my puts right at open to book a huge huge huge huge money and profit. I will hold 30% of my short beacuse there is a chnace that market sump toward 1170, but i have stop at break even which is veryfar fro here, Huge huge huge huge
SWBB
Since I made tons of money in just a couple hours this week, so I may go to ealy vacation. So good luck and happy thanksgiving
well done on the gapped down call sam…so i will give credit where it is due…you also mentioned that there is no way they will not rally the market on a holiday week…so you think a possible push down to 1170 then a rally into thanksgiving?…enjoy the holiday!
just read your post below..so 1150 by next week….ut you still think a rally in thankgiving?
a short small life rally is possible, but not to 120
SWBB
thanks…1092 area?
Sam, great froecast. I bought some 800 TZA at 20.04 at close.
HUGE HUGE HUGE forecast from me: in my opinion S&P500 is going to 1150 into next week. I remember Woo was talking about 1150. Woo, Do you still see this?
SWBB
yeah, i actually see it closer to 1140 now.
good job, woo. you are amaster
big boys are like a small cat in our hand. No matter how they kill themself to decive us, but we all are samrt enough to see what they want to do.
SWBB
ok I am holding shorts strong then..even through black friday..thanks
I think that is a mistake but we’ll see.
Today could be a great buying opportunity if and that’s a big if north + south Korea play nice.I just do not see the market tanking before the biggest shopping day of the year..I will watch the 1171 area for support and possible bounce..
idan…what support are we looking to watch for a possible breakdown or bounce on the euro? thanks
I have 1.3357 as the strongest support.. be careful, cover before hand.
thanks
bought 1000 UCO @ 9.90
I’m off work this week so I’ll post some trades. I’m usually early into trades so you will likely get a better entry point if you wait a bit.
Amazing BAC is green !!!
bought 100 QLD @ 75.20 (and I’m looking to buy more if it goes under 75.00)
This doesn’t look like a “buy the dip” scenario, at least for traders. I’m holding the Q’s puts from earlier this week and up 4%.
I think we need to close that gap from Nov/18 pretty soon.
Existing home sales @ 10:00Am..Let’s see what that does if anything.
bought 100 more QLD @ 74.70 (so I now have 200 shares @ 74.95 avg)
buy order in for 100 more @ 74.20
This just filled so I now have 300 shares @ 74.70 avg.
stopped out @ 73.70
10:00aBREAKING
October existing-home sales fall 2.2%
4.43m vs 4.42 est
Staying long here, at least for a bit. Stop in on FTK; holding CIEN (long) and a little LIZ long (I ended up holding this). This is based on an IT call of up. We will see.
GLTA
sold remaining ftk @ decent gain (just shy of 30%)
staying mostly in cash (now ~ 90% cash)
Good stuff Rob.
bought SPY December 120 calls @ 1.41
Remember back when GM IPO came to market and all of a sudden we had a 200 point green day !!! Well i am in the camp the FED will do whatever it can to push this market up leading to the biggest shopping day of the year,they have too !!!
That’s also been my theory. Was surprised to wake up to futures <100. Chances are they will moderate the loss by end of day and ramp it up tomorrow. I have a few long positions 300 BK, 500 PLD and my stalwart 2000 SBX.
Started these positions yesterday…..down only slightly so far.
I’m done for the morning (unless UCO drops as low as 9.70 which is highly unlikely). I might buy more UCO at 9.80; I’ll post it if I do. This is a tricky spot for trading oil but I feel pretty good about being long here. I’ll consider closing the long positions that I entered this morning (QLD, UCO, and SPY calls) if we make a solid break below 1180.
I’ll go against Sam’s HUGE HUGE HUGE forecast and predict that we will NOT see 1150 going into next week. Good luck to all!
Took half a position off the table for a 10% gain for now.
sweet
stopped out of my QLD position @ 73.70 for a loss of 300.00
That was a loss of 1.34% on the QLD trade but I still think we are going to bounce soon and I may get back in. I’m still holding the 1000 UCO and the SPY calls.
Someone here was high on TEF awhile back. This has been taken to the woodshed of late. Looks like no support until around 65.25. Fundamentally a great company with a good dividend yield. Anyone have any thoughts here.
bought 400 SSO @ 42.06 and 500 more UCO @ 9.90
I think the lows for the day (and probably the week) are in. I’m tempted to add even more longs now.
FOMC -today @ 2:00pm.. That could prove interesting..
I’m waiting for that breakdown of the SPY under $118 before i consider shorting. On the opposing side, i’m looking for a long trade into Euro once we fall into the lower 1.33s or high 1.32s
is there any volume in this drop?? looking for a long around low 70′s
bought 400 more SSO @ 42.24 (so I now have 800 shares @ 42.15 avg)
I mentioned BK yesterday. It found support at the 20SMA this AM. Lots of good support underneath this stock. Can some of you TA gurus give me your thoughts?
Ok I am going to predict what ends up happening today early rather than 20 mins before close. Do not be surprised to see another miraculous comeback today. I see the market ending pretty much as yesterday down a few points or pretty much flat. The Korean crap is so overblown these idiots have been at war for years. Lows are in for the day and hopefully you bought the dips. There ya go GLTY.
Sounds good plus they want to prop this market so everyone will go shopping and spend money on the biggest shopping day of the year !!!
Idan…….CEL….I missed it the first time. Seems to be sitting on good support right here. Would you be a buyer?
nahh wait it out.. let it roll back down.
ERX
I haven’t been doing much today, but went long ERX. Down testing support at the 20 day sma, which has proven to be a good entry point in the past.
Entry at 43.70 with a stop at 41.85 beneath the prior low for a defined risk of 4.23%
I think this is going to be a very good trade for you!
it’s far too easy to break down right now in my opinion.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p90771071414&a=160222837
We’re still fiddling within the 38%-61% retrace area.
I wouldn’t be surprised if we got a rise back up towards 1190.
Sold the rest of my puts for a 15% gain. Will not go long for now.
Would say its far easier to move back up not down,we have not had a 2-3% down since May.Maybe shells hitting Hawaii would do God forbide
bought 200 ERX @ 43.70
right now i’m watching 1177- and 1180+ for possible scalps for the day. would raise stops to profit immediately.
just tried to buy tna but it’s moving quickly, I dont want to chase (was going to be 100 shs long @ 55.8)
Did you see my post yesterday about TNA (and TZA)? They don’t track the S&P 500. They track the Russell 2000 small cap market index. If you want 3x leverage on the S&P 500, use UPRO and SPXU.
Yes I saw thanks (and knew). It was the VXX that confused me (the rolling over of the short term vxx to the next month). I also liked to play with FAZ / FAS in the past as there is SOME coorelation to S&P (I know it’s not direct). I’m using TNA more as a way to juice a play that the market will (hopefully) move up in the IT.
filled @ $55.80 (100 shares long tna); out of ftk as of this AM (moving again); other long positions CIEN and LIZ; LIZ down 3%, CIEN a little positive, TNA now up .31%
could be a bear flag forming. gotta be careful.
trying some calls for fun.
SPY dec 119 @1.80
there’s some good resistance here in the 1181 area on the shorter term chart. I might have jumped the gun.
Today is one of the best opportunities for the bears to close the door and if they can’t do it they never will. Sit tight be patient watch the “BIG BOYS” as Sam I am touts. Their time is here to make the cash. Watch the market roll back.
today is actually not the best day.
market having one more rise to finish off an ABC flat correction would make it look much prettier.
from there you’ve got some consolidation, and you’ve got the RSI’s a bit more even for another good drop.
i don’t think i am willing to hold into closing though. if we don’t get a decent bounce soon. i’ll just have to bail on my position because i won’t be able to trade on wednesday and friday.
Would you consider re-entering short at this point if you could trade tomorrow?
I sold my Q’s puts for a nice profit and the selling is just too heavy for me to go long right now. Looks more like a flag than a base building to break out.
i would definitely consider building a short/put base again on the rises.
the rise maybe be slow and drawn out though, since the gap up was so strong and quick the last time.
wouldn’t want to see a break north of 1200 on any short positions though.
Looks like we’re closing closer to the lows than the highs which is bearish. It seemed like nothing could get the market up today, not even the GDP numbers.
POMO has only limited the damage to the downside. It’s just too uncertain right now.
sold my HPQ calls for 65 cents, bought them for 59 cents. HUGE HUGE HUGE Profit, not
I just added 1000 shrs FTK, I couldnt sit out (it has moved interday ~ 10% up). 1000 shrs long @3.8299
BAC IS GOING TO BREAK BELOW 11.00! Market is going to continue sell off.
in @ 1.80
out @ 1.81
couldn’t hold into close. covered trading costs lol.
hahah
amazing profit huh? haha
Keep that principal and look for the next opportunity, right? Ata boy.
not being able to trade the rest of the week messes with me haha.
the thought of missing those opportunities made me rush into a trade, when i knew this would be drawn out a bit more.
good luck on wed and fri =)
Idan, what is your stop on CSCO? I bought in for more today. Not feeling so good about it though.
Don’t let it have another day where it ends at the lows… as long as it rebounds tomorrow to a DOJI candle or a green candle, keep it.
If you really need a stop… 18.7 is good.
Also shorted EWY South Korea Index