Poll of the day:
Loading ...My support/resistance lines on Visa have proven themselves time and time again. It’s that simple, short when broken down(with stop above), go long when touched (with a stop underneath). Here’s the daily:
12:59am
I’m still waiting for GLD to break down the $130 level. That’s the strongest level of support on the GLD daily, and a break of that will (in my mind) bring us the bearishness that is needed to call a short term or long term top on gold, and a start of a potential collapse from the bubble-like characteristics that we have seen. I like the fact that GLD went and hit up the 20 SMA now as resistance… if you want to preemptively short gold (though i don’t recommend doing that usually on a commodity that has been bubbling ), make sure the daily doesn’t close above the 20 SMA (that’s your stop).
12:56am
Time to buy CSCO? Csco is at the bottom of my channel formation and therefore I think it’s a buy right here.. Even though the channel is descending, it is oversold on multiple indicators, and it’s time to get at least a consolidation type bounce. I also like the fact that the volume has picked up, symbolizing that we might be getting a capitulation moment here.
12:45am
Just got back to new york city, I gave my old university a visit this weekend (Blue Devils!!). In my presentation to the investment club on technical analysis I pointed out that the Eur/USD is backtesting a support level which is now resistance. This is obviously a great setup for a short, but as i’m looking at it right now we are trading above the trendline:
I think that a short is still not out of the question, as the push above the 1.375 area could be a slight fakeout, but if you are planning on taking this shorting opportunity, i recommend at most a 0.5% stoploss. I don’t want to be a shorter above 1.3825 for sure.
OK FUTURES ARE UP! Let’s see if it holds and the market continues a bull run to Thanksgiving.
gotta give thanks
ABSOLUTELY especially if we can hit back up to the 1210-1220 area.
In my opinion market does not move today, a little up a little down, BUT tomorrow market will gap down
SWBB
you sticking with this prediction sam?
Sam,
Last week, when the market was up, you wrote:
” sam says:
November 18, 2010 at 12:52 pm
huge huge huge huge profit keep coming to my longs. I kept telling you more than 200 times that I am super bullish and I always said this. Only one day i turned bearish and that was last thursday before market opened I said i will buy huge spy puts at open and i will sell at close and that was the onley day i was bearih and i said that before market opened. and see what happened . market gave me tons of money on thta bearish day whaile i am so bullish and kepp holding my longs.
That is the power of my trading guys.
now going to holdiday, it is very easy. even my granmother who does not know who to read and write also know that market is bullish beofre any holdiday.
huge huge huge profit
SWBB”
Now you write:
In my opinion market does not move today, a little up a little down, BUT tomorrow market will gap down
SWBB
Which one is it?. I am confused?. Big Boys doing a great job!!!!. I do not think your forecasting has been that strong lately…. Please be consistent and if you were wrong just say it there is no shame in that….
exactly…sam its harder to predict ahead of time…isn’t it?….much easier when you see the futures and then make your decision
I am long as posted several times since the last two weeks. I am doing great thanks to FTK which is a stock a gave to this forum when it was trading below 1.50. Attached is my table with my current holdings.
300 BRO 22.6 22.53 -0.3% -21
500 AMLN 13.37 13.48 0.8% 55
500 CENX 14.49 14.43 -0.4% -30
2000 GMXR 5.08 4.69 -7.7% -780
1400 MOT 8.02 8.12 1.2% 140
6000 FTK 1.72 3.27 90.1% 9300
5000 MJNA 0.1 0.07 -30.0% -150
Profit 8514
I am not selling all my longs unless I see the market trading below the 200 SMA on the weekly which stands at 10,943. Unless this happens trend is still up and this is a consolidation period for another leg up (which should be the last one). I have said several times that I strongly believe that the top is some where between this two numbers 11800-12300. I am thinking to reduce the size of FTK to only 3000 shares and take some more profit on it. It has been such a money maker that is hard but a good trading strategy is to take profit and reduce your risk. With the profits from FTK I could buy some hedges here. We will see how the day unwinds.
Still holding long, up modestly on LIZ (bt Friday) – but it’s moving the right direction. Stop in to guarantee profitable trake. FTK up another 5%, Up over 20% in this in about a week. Holding this one.
LIZ looks good to me breaking above 7.12 and with retail in such an uptrend (XRT). Any retest of the intraday of low followed by a bounce with decent volume and I’ll be long with a stop just below that level.
LIZ hasn’t bounced yet and broke below it’s prior resistance level of 7.11. Going to see how this stock closes today before taking any action.
It’s right at support. I didnt sell earlier, but I have stop / sell order @ 7.00.
NFLX up nice too (I don’t own any).
I havent heard much of this hindenberg omen lately, but it wouldnt surprise me to see it occuring again (new highs and lows).
http://www.stocktiming.com/Monday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
It appears as of right now the market is not liking the EU issue with Ireland. Now they are thinking portugal next and how many more. Where is all this money coming from, who and how will it be paid off? Are all these dollars coming from our printing presses? No wonder there is great worries that abound. Bears are making their move. Can they sustain it?
And a major creditor of Portugal is Spain, which has a much larger economy.
Exactly
Bought TZA 20.06
Could be an excellent play if market continues to gap down. Just make sure you put your stops in to guarantee profits.
AMT down right at trendline support and the 50 dma, great entry point with minimal downside.
Idan, you watching V for an entry around 75.37? If so, where would you place your stop?
Found support there!
Thinking the same thing. Bounced off the 50 sma. I put a stop at 74.20, below the Nov 16th low. I’m wondering if that is too lose and I should set the stop beneath today’s low at 75. 28. Any thoughts are appreciated.
the strongest support is at $75.00… so depending if you go longer term or shorter term. Your support will either be right under $75 or under the lows of the last candle that pierced $75 at $74.26
Anyone have any thoughts on MCP? What a volatile stock. If you can catch the swings right, big money maker.
i know..i’ve been watching..was downgraded to price target of 29…i believe their earnings missed significantly
Sold at stop 20.44. Dsavill, thanks for advice.
A profit is a profit WTG and you’re very welcome.
Figures market is gapping down HUGE sold to soon oh well.
Now TZA is down to 20.13 so the 20.44 is looking good. Bottom line is you did infact book a profit.
I put in a small order for 300 cien (long) @ 15.2 (probably a few cents too low). Will likely raise price a few cents to buy.
Executed @ 15.2295 (300 shs long)
anyone doing anything with HPQ, they report tonight, and I am in a gambling mood. Thinking of buying calls/puts not sure which ones yet tho
Woo should be one of the best traders in this site
thanks!
me and idan are both on the focalequity team so we aren’t included in the vote haha.
Looking at BK……..finding support right now at the 200SMA at 27.27. I think this one has some good potential. Will watch the tape for awhile and then make a decision. Comments welcome!
TIMBERRRRRRRRRRRRRR the bears are making a strong stand now!!
market was up a good amount in the futures going into today….but didn’t open up at all.
still no positions. may sit this week out completely. as i mentioned last week, this is a dangerous area with a higher probability of coiling/wedging.
Totally agree Woo and if the SPX can’t hold 1180 the probability is high it will drop a good amount towards that 1150 you spoke about lastweek.
IF the retail numbers are horrible Friday look out below. Not saying that will happen but it has a good chance it will.
yeah i see a strong drop coming in very very soon.. just a little more damage to the downside needed.
yeah….
i wish i had begun my short entry last week.
i was itching for it.
i really want it to bounce and recover, so that i can grab a better entry position, but at this point, if the 1187 can’t hold, we could really begin that drop to the 1140s…
there’s a trend line in this 1187 area. if it can be recovered, we may have seen the lows of the day and see a bit of recovery.
if it continues to break down it’s hard to say where the next strongest support will be (not saying there are none, just that it could form that wedge bottom trend line at any point).
i’m leaning more towards a bounce here.
If HPQ reports good numbers and I think they will that will bounce the market.
i think they’ll have great earnings numbers.
but they had a crap load of acquisitions this year including palm. they look to be investing heavily into cloud computing as well.
not sure how those will factor in.
If the buck captures 79.00 or better the bears will have their teeth in deep.
sold all of SCO, 11.34 basis–could be wrong, but not greedy. great thanksgiving to all.
1187 getting rejected so far. I missed my opportunity to add to my Q’s puts. Will wait for now.
52.10 needs to give for us to move down to 51.60 on the Q’s.
good stuff. you’re still holding a good position.
are you considering raising stops? or are you going to hold these much longer term. if it doesn’t break down here, the decay will start eating away.
I could have sold with a 4% gain but I decided to hold. I’m ok with holding longer as it’s Jan expiry that I’m holding and I have cash to deploy to decrease average cost. We should hit the 1150 minimum so I’m comfortable.
sounds good. i’m also leaning towards that 1140-1150 area. might be a rough ride all this week though to the side.
if i’m wrong, i am sorry and will buy you an e-beer.
Well, I could see the markets not really give except for tomorrow with the GDP #s. The week before a major holiday is usually green.
So you don’t think we’ll hit 1150 until next week?
this is what i’m thinking will help spur the economy a bit more at the end of the year/beginning of next year.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6A35EI20101104
keeping the tax cuts extended and keeping the capital gains tax where it currently is.
there is no way that wall street with all its money is going to allow for the bush tax cuts to not be extended.
i still think there will be a strong dip prior to this.
I severely doubt anything will be resolved with the tax rates until next year. This will cause some taxpayers to sell positions towards year end in order to lock in lower tax rates. Given the tack history, it would not be surprising to see the rates rise as Congress is all F-ed up and they may act in time. If they do not act, the tax rates ordinarily will rise. Congress is still trying to figure out what to do with the estate (death) tax rules which expired this year (2010). It has taxpayers and professionals frustrated as hell – it’s impossible to plan for the future.
This is the first year since I’ve been practicing as a tax CPA where we are advising clients to CONSIDER accellerating income. General advise is ordinarily to defer income and accelerate deductions.
they better put it off or keep extending…
capital gains increase is going to kill the market. obama can’t be that dumb…then again…he’s proven time and time again that yes…he is economic death incarnate.
we not have trend line support from the short term and longer term charts.
* not was supposed to be now.
i jumped the gun a bit though. it’s flirting with the trend line right now and cracked a bit, but isn’t fully supported on the 6 month yet.
i’m almost 90% sure i’ll be sitting out of trades this week.
i won’t be in on wednesday at all. leaving to dominican republic tuesday night.
there’s the bounce =)
1192 first resistance.
alright, we hit 60min 200ma and 5min trend line in this high 1191 area a little below 1192.
let’s see if it can break.
1194 is the first major resistance in my eyes.
if that can break we’ll probably head back towards 1200.
GS is taking it on the chin bigtime today!
Here is the scoop about Ireland as I suspected this morning: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101122/ap_on_bi_ge/eu_europe_financial_crisis
Look @ Haup, named after my home town
in the DEC $45 HPQ calls for 59 cents fingers crossed
Evidently this is all over the Canadian news wires, but no coverage to speak of in the US. Hmmmmmmm!
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-11-22/fed-s-kocherlakota-says-inflation-low-growth-alarmingly-slow.html
This is already priced in before the fed announcement, in other words nothing new.
Agreed, but I’m still quite surprised by the admission!
Freakin Haup still on fire. Too bad my account makes daytrading so difficult (with T + 3).
only thing I saw is it’s supposed to be mentined on Oprah’s favorite things, whatever the heck that is.
Here we go for another miraculous comeback looks like.
yep…another POMO rescue..takes the fun out of it…lol
TNA is up .75%, TZA down .75%; yep, people looking for a move UP (spy still red .37%)
Still loving FTK to death. Just sorry I took some off the table last week. Today’s buy of cien also doing ok, LIZ only “dog” but going to hold another day or so.
just popped again, on fire.
and how ridiculous is the vxx…the vix was up all day 1.50 but vxx was at its all time lows and now that the vix is coming down vxx is tanking..investigate that fbi
VIX has been doing this for quite some time.
Here’s the chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p91366269155&a=204018771
yes..I do realize the disconnect, but today was ridiculous…isn’t the vxx leveraged? the vix was up 1.50 and vxx down .22%
Why would the FBI investigate an ETN that is doing exactly what it is supposed to do? The problem is not with VXX; it is functioning perfectly. The problem is that people have not taken the time to actually find out what VXX tracks. It does not track the spot value of the VIX; it tracks short-term VIX futures which may or may not being moving in the same direction as the spot value of the VIX at any given time. Also, it is not leveraged.
I took a huge beating on this one a few months ago. There was also a pattern where it just shit a brick about once a month. I believe it was caused by the futures rolling forward but I didnt really look into it.
I thought it was a good way to play volitility but it didnt work out well for me. I’m also staying away from TNA TZA for similar reasons (it’s not following S&P very well).
or I should say that TNA / TZA is more forward looking IMO.
TNA and TZA are not designed to track the S&P 500. They track the Russell 2000 small cap stock market index. This is clearly indicated on the Direxion website.
If you want leveraged ETFs that track the S&P 500, you should use the following from Proshares:
SSO for 2x leverage long
SDS for 2x leverage short
UPRO for 3x leverage long
SPXU for 3x leverage short
I was joking
Yeah, the VXX is not a mirror image of the VIX. It’s a nice way to lose money because it’s hard to recognize what it’s related to and predict the short-term VIX futures. I would stick with the VIX.
From the iPath website:
The S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures™ Index TR is designed to provide access to equity market volatility through CBOE Volatility Index® (the “VIX Index”) futures. Specifically, the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures™ Index TR offers exposure to a daily rolling long position in the first and second month VIX futures contracts and reflects the implied volatility of the S&P 500® Index at various points along the volatility forward curve. The index futures roll continuously throughout each month from the first month VIX futures contract into the second month VIX futures contract.
A direct investment in VIX (commonly referred to as spot VIX) is not possible. The S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures™ Index TR holds VIX futures contracts, which could involve roll costs and exhibit different risk and return characteristics. Investments offering volatility exposure can have various uses within a portfolio including hedging, directional, or arbitrage strategies and are typically short or medium-term in nature.
It’s a perfectly good trading vehicle if you understand what it does. Anyone who is trading it and expecting it to track the spot value of the VIX is an idiot since they clearly did not take the time to look up how it works (which any trader with a brain should be doing before putting their money in any ETF/ETN). Due diligence!
morris, are you still in SCO? per #21, out at 13.10. Charts look to go up further, but bailed. Remember you logging this was good at 13.31. Okay, not easy to see at this point.
I have not posted any trades on this site in a while. I had to rethink my position on oil after it moved so aggressively upwards. I was in SCO last week but my entry in that particular position was not posted here. I don’t have an oil position (UCO or SCO) at the moment but if I did, it would be in UCO, not SCO. However, this is a tricky spot here (both in oil and the markets in general).
Thanks, this is why I got out. Will not touch anything at this point, even though I have some TZA from former trades (stops accordingly). Have a great Thanksgiving.
ok # one blogger Sam, which way will your big boys take us today? About 2 minutes until big boys deal their goods.
LOL #1 BLOGGER not here at the moment so as #2 I am going to say there is a good probability it comes back to limited loss or close to flat EOD. I seriously doubt we go back to day lows. Buyers are still coming in limited but will carry it back well above days lows.
that prediction wasn’t incredibly hard to make at 3:38pm today.. but nonethless good job.
Thanks Idan but we have seen many times the market can make drastic changes in the last 20 minutes and it could have lost more if the bears had more conviction, which again they did not.
Hey DS, you were #1 in my book, but the Sam lovers were too much for a mere mortal such as I to compete against. He’s just too much of a superstar, so you shouldn’t feel badly about not surpassing his STRONG STRONG AMAZING INVALUABLE CALLS. HE IS THE BEST THING TO EVER VISIT THIS SITE.
This is only because I was not permitted to vote for the true #1′s on this site, Sir Idan and Sir Woo.
TRUE THAT ROBERT but TBH with you I was honored to be even mentioned or on a list at all.
Hewlett #’s beat up 1% ah
As I said earler today I thought they would and am sure the next will be even better.
Rut ro the FBI raided some hedge fund offices today imagine that lol
Thats why GS was down so much today. They are checking their emails and and deleating fast lolol
http://www.topstockportfolios.com/report/8567/FBI-Launches-Massive-Insider-Trading-Investigation/1/0/01e11fc31632300129bb93bf02d95b6dc2b1fbf5
DS – this is way you had no shot at #1…
Check out this video of Sam’s life. And we all thought he was a young kid… not so..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QI58wj4b4g0
ROTFLMAO great one Robert……….I will leave ” the most interesting man on the planet” award to Sam I Am and now know how Jimmy Johnson must have felt yesterday as being the happiest person on the planet for coming in second.
You both are singing to his choir–let it go and move on. Robert, you made significant dollars with JROD (FTK), dsvill, continue to enjoy your updates. Both of you need to ignore, move on, make this site better–PLEASE! Egos don’t make monies, but quality posts do. Have a great Thanksgiving!
That actually wasn’t meant as a knock on Sam, it was more an attempt at humor. I’ve been long like him lately and I like that he’s actually posting trades.
No ego here, I am here to learn how to make money and share ideas with fellow traders for the good of all.
Ditto no ego here like I said I was surprised to be even on a list.
HP up huge in AH!
Sea of RED in the futures. That raid on the hedge fund companies might drag us down tomorrow.