11:14am
Yesterday’s rally was huge but did not end the way the bulls wanted it. First of all, we didn’t end at the highs of the session, but second of all, we ended right below the 20 SMA daily making it seem like all we were doing is really back testing 20 SMA and maybe getting ready to fall back down again.
So far the action today is not very bearish either, but let’s see if we close above 20 SMA (making me bullish) or getting a stronger red candle for the day (making me more bearish). Right now i’m neutral:
any weakness in to thanskgiving is fake. Big boys won’t let markt to fall before any holday. So i am super bulish
SWBB
I have a very huge accurate chart that tells you a lot of things. I will post my chart for you soon.
SWBB
Sold ERY 30.25
good times =)
if the market can get below 1190.3, we should get a further drop to 1186ish.
my puts are doing really well so far.
i’ll look to sell in that 1180s area.
there is a decent amount of support here though, so if we get back above 1192, i’ll unload as well.
win-win on your part from yesterday, very nice. will you take calls anytime soon?
not yet. too much risk involved at this point. not worth it.
i am still waiting for more downside as fake. Monday will be very bullish, so the more we drop today the better price we can get to load some calls for Monday.
SWBB
putting in stop on 1/2 of ftk to lock in 6+ % profit. Feels like today will end green (which doesn’t really make sense to me). At some point Ben will truly run out of bullets. In Goldman we trust?
sold 40%, kept 60% on table. Going to look at max pain, thinking of gambling a touch with some tna or similar juiced long.
looks like spy @ max pain, TNA a bit above, will not buy anything at the moment (unless FTK drops again, in which case I will likely reload)
http://www.optionpain.com/OptionPain/Option-Pain.php
any idea when rino will resume trading?
they announced on cnbc this morning that they are requesting more info on rino ….i guess there are two supposed customers and contracts that rino claims they had, but never existed
unloaded my SPY dec 118 puts here
bot@1.67
sold@2.00
i could have held out a bit longer, but i didn’t want to risk the 1190.3 area being recaptured and holding, which it was starting to do a bit. there is a fib retrace there as well as the 60 min 200ma. new candle started above the 1190.3 area.
this is a very dangerous area to be holding a position. we could drop to 1180s prior to rising more to above 1200. we could just rise to 1200+, or we could just drop towards 1140. that’s 3 possible scenarios based on the wave counts, which doesn’t lean towards a clear direction.
i’ll probably hold off on trading for the rest of the day and wait for more movement in the market to give a clearer direction for the future.
if 1185-1186 hits. i may consider a tight long position with stops in the 1183 area.
Woo, in Focalequity leverage ETF pro, you also show traders how to trade options?
i post ETF suggestions in there, and I’ll usually post updated SPX charts and some normal stocks if I see any that seem interesting.
The past few days we’ve been sending out a few ETF alerts, but starting next week we’ll be picking up normal updates again.
will be interesting to see if/when GM hits 33.
You’ve got that right.
looks like i got in right near the short term bottom. still could dip another 10 points here to the mid 1180s though.
All of my trading signal are in sell, BUT BUT BUT BUT there is only one impoortant signal that is in buy and that singnal is thansgiving holdiday. Market will not sell hard before any major holdiday beacuse big boys wants people to go and buy buy buy and then big boys make money
SWBB
ftk still moving
nothing in stock market is more funny and redecules than elliott wave. I was following some EW blogs before. They were saying ok, market is going up (primary count) or it goes down (second or alter count). I do not know how the hell some one can make money on this. Then they said give me some more money so i give you more. Then once market breaks one way they said, ok now i told you one of my wave is correct, now give me more money to i can continue giving you more.
anoter intersting thing is that even they keep changing the wave counts on the one that goes correct.
SWBB
My view of elliot wave is that it’s the nomenclature of waves, and not really a predictor of stocks.
who is ridiculing it other than you?
i’m using Elliot Wave counts on top of my normal Technical Analysis, and so far this has been an amazing month for me, especially the last two weeks. I’ve posted all my trades and counts here on focalequity. I LOVE Elliot Wave =)
I agree that there are a lot of crappy Elliot Wave blogs out there. Even Prechter and all of Elliot Wave International were saying a few months back that P3 has already started and we are heading towards a double bottom or new lows, and then we hit above the 1220 previous high up to 1227. They were COMPLETELY wrong.
I never follow anybody else’s counts but my own, and only use EW to trade when things are clean. If things don’t look solid from a probability stand point, I stick to my normal TA. I also won’t make trades if my TA and EW conflict. EW is just one of many tools. I used it to predict the 666 bottom, and a number of short term tops, and frankly don’t care if people follow me or believe in EW. Just here to offer my analysis and more than happy to share. I think to discount it’s usefulness is dumb though. If the tool doesn’t work for you, just don’t use it.
The most important thing is to always do your own research. You can never blame anybody else for losing money, but yourself. Any time someone comes to me with suggestions on charts or EW, I always do my own charting and decide whether to agree or disagree.
It’s pretty interesting to see you write about Elliot Wave being ridiculous and how you shouldn’t follow people, when you talk about sticking with the big boys all the time while rarely posting charts, reasons for your analysis, or your exit and entry points. I would fix your style of blogging and commenting before you ridicule others.
Either way, good luck. In the end we’re all here to make money and learn a thing or two along the way.
Well said
Woo, thanks for your response. You always response very wisley and clear and I agree 100% TO WHAT YOU WROTE. but most people do use EW in a wrong way and they just think EW can tell them everything . I wrote an advise to those people not to fall in a EW trap. But what you said is 100% correct.
Beside the reason i do not post chart is that i never leran how to post cahrt in your blog and, but i posted my chart in ablog that i created and most of then were HUGE accurate
SWBB
feel free to post the link to your blog. as long as there is nothing offensive and it is not spamming, you can post it time to time to show people your links.
Woo
AMEN WOO I COULDN’T OF SAID IT ANY BETTER MYSELF!
elliot wave sucks , market like to take the p”s out of ew’s .up down , down up , this is wave two , no its not its wave 4 , you will lose if you follow ew, rock on !
Some of the EW’ers out there are amazingly good (check out Pugs blog) as long as they are open minded and not bullish or bearish biased IMO. In all cases however it seems to be similar to if ____ then _____ else____ like in my very old computer programming classes.
IMO even TA is difficult with the POMO and other artificual fluff in the system. Take this week for instance, market should have dropped like a stone without fed or GS intervenation. But now all is well, go long and sleep well, wake up richer.
No positions until next week which will probably a swing long right through the holiday.
I do not see any big moves next week other than a slow grind sideways to up on very low volume..We only have 2 full days of trading all week but it will be interesting to see what happens in Ireland afterall we all remember what happened last Thanksgiving with Dubai !!!!…GO PATRIOTS gonna lay the smack down on the Colts in Foxboro this weekend in the cold !!!!
yeah thanksgiving weekend is always an interesting one. black friday coming up and holiday sales. going to be an interesting precursor week for the rest of the 2010 year. i wouldn’t be surprised if its really low volume like you mentioned.
I’ll probably also hold off on any trades until monday, looking for shorter term trend lines breaks for scalps unless we hit some significant support/resistance areas that call for a large position in a specific direction. also don’t want to deal with decay over the weekend on any options i enter.
there is a possibility that i may start building a january or february SPY put position for a slightly longer term hold of 1-2 weeks (more if needed). Need the expiration date to be further out to offset decay in case the dip takes longer than expected. Still leaning towards 1140 or so prior to any possibility of new highs.
In all probability the Pats will win keeping in mind half the Colts’ players are not playing because of injuries. I am a Colts fan and hoping the Payton magic will some how come through……never underestimate that guy. As far as last Thanksgiving I agree and don’t be surprised if some bad news story comes out and we can’t do a dam thing about it because the markets will be closed. Thats one of their greatest tricks they play.
Woo, Since you said i do not post chart, I just posted a HUGE HUGE HUGE ACCURATE CHART, LOOK at my post at below link.
I am long toward thanbsgiving holdinday and holding FAS and SPY DEC 1018 calls, then after thanksgiving i will go short SPY buy buying SPU puts
http://bigboysactionwallstreet.blogspot.com/2010/11/huge-reverse-island-reversal.html
thanks sam. love the labels haha. it’s better than no label at all. =)
I’m leaning towards something very similar, but not sure if there will be a larger drop to mid 1180s prior to that rise.
I’ll be sitting out till things get more clear. Good luck.
So much fun to read you Guys debating about the aspects of EW! I am a new trader and in the process of learning about EW. Sorry I have no idea in judging you Guys’ debate, but I have two question in this situation.
1. Is it the Stock Market a voting system to begin with?
2, Was the egg first, or chicken first in our universe: the Earth?
First is big boys. Do not under esimate them
1) yes the stock market is technically a voting system. Every time an individual or entity buys or sells a stock, they are voting for or against supporting that stock and seeing it as a viable source of income.
2) The chicken was first:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38238685/ns/technology_and_science-science
Next question.
classic
this is actually a really disgusting area to trade. we’ve hit the 50% retrace of the drop from 1227 to 1173, which means it start dropping at any time towards 1140s.
today’s drop hit the 38% retrace of the rise from 1173-1200, which also makes it ambiguous on the shorter term charts.
i might not consider any large position trades until 1200+ or 1183-.
Q’s are breaking out of an ascending triangle on the 5 mins so we may see some kind of a move up for now. Sitting in cash for now.
silver is probably going to head to new highs.
I’ve got a pretty good count on silver. Might be a pretty quick move up too. I think the bottom on silver has already come in and since the 1 and 3 waves up were so drawn out, if this is going to rise to new highs, it could be really quick and fierce.
I’m hoping for a dip first and then I’ll probably grab a strong position.
I do not think so./ Volume is low to the upside and high to the downside. if we get a gap down then that wil be a island reversal which is extermly bearish
SWBB
you have to remember that there is 600 billion dollars being pumped in.
if there is any sort of inflation it is going to bring the price of gold and silver up.
as world currencies become less stable there will also be a stronger reliance on gold and silver since you can’t just print extra gold and silver to your hearts desire as you can with paper money.
Silver is also holding support on the trend lines.
if there is any strong dip, i am going strong and long silver.
Is there a support level you’re looking for woo? I’ve been waiting to add to silver as well.
Thx
maybe SLV around 25.90, is where I would consider my initial long position. However, we could drop to 25.30s. I’ll have to see what happens into next week.
Might grab the leveraged AGQ if things are looking good.
actually, i’ll be sticking to AGQ for this trade. SLV is not as pretty as AGQ on the chart.
sure i agree that gold and silver are exploding higher in long term, i just don’t see a new high to come very soon. May be end of dec we can see that. I am extermly bearish on longer term dollar.
SWBB
Woo or anybody, any thoughts on LIZ? It’s a recent buy by the same blogger who has been pushing FTK and other high stocks that have been tearing.
putting in small buy order, 500 shs LIZ long @ $7.20
Raised to $7.21 and bought the 500 shrs LIZ. Only other position in trading account is 3,000 shrs FTK (long).
Under 7.17, and especially 7.10 is a bit dangerous. Current oversold, and hit a trend line at today’s top
If it can break that top…
7.49 looks like first major resistance. if it breaks that, it should head to 7.92
good support at 6.94.
Thank you Woo.
sorry meant overbought.
Thanks for the clarification woo. So far it’s still moving in the right direction (up .8% since buying 1/2 hr ago — after recovering from dip down).
Still hasn’t broken north of that trend line yet though.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=LIZ&p=60&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p07989356008&a=214701082
That’s risk / reward I can deal with. $7.92 sounds yummy……….
Woo. look at my strong huge chart about silver in a longer term. SWBB
http://bigboysactionwallstreet.blogspot.com/2010/11/silver.html
so u agree that we are headed to new highs, but you just think the dip will be more pronounced on silver prior to it happening. It’s not much different from what I wrote.
I’ll be looking closer at AGQ for a long trade coming up in the very near future.
by the way, appreciate the input. =)
Just curious…how is volume today overall and how do you guys check that? Today being OPEX anything is possible. Next week should be light volume which has tended to cause the market to creep up rather than down.
I’m not saying that’s the new normal……..
woo, hypothetical–if we close 1205-1207 today, do you buy puts over weekend, or not touch?
i would buy puts.
would be crazy if we got 1207 today…but you’re right, i guess the possibility exists.
probably jan or feb exp.
currently leaning towards feb to offset weekend and thanksgiving week decay that could happen.
does anyone else think that AMZN is headed much higher long term?
I’m thinking AMZN has ridiculous holiday sales.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AMZN&p=D&yr=2&mn=5&dy=0&id=p96835350693&a=181646175
chart says possible 222 minimum top. Could be a good drop first though to hit a retrace.
I’m a buyer of AMZN in the 140s.
I’m “concerned” about adding to FTK, but I believe it may be worth watching. This bugger is up another 10% today. I’m not recommending …. but I’m still holding position. I don’t know how you can even chart these parabolic moves, but someone is accumulating and I like that it’s under the radar for many traders.
Personally, this is one where I would consider buying dips.
lol, dropped 1% as I typed, but all good.
PCLN seems like a good short opportunity.
miss richard (permabear), this was one of his favorites.
I miss him too.
What is strange about this little ralley we are having right now is the financials are not going with it. I should be down with the bear stocks and they are up. The dollar is losing ground so we will see if the market ends up green and how much.
Woo,
Isn’t it true that the more the option is in the money the higher the delta, and therefore, the closer it reflects the price of the underlying stock/index? So by going out of the money aren’t we taking an option that has a lower delta and therefore will move slower even if we’ve invested in the right direction? Meaning that if SPY is at 120 and you buy a 121 call vs. 120 call, same expiry, the 120 call should make more money on a 1 dollar increase in the SPY?
take a look at S (sprint).
the december exp.
dec 3 went up 13 cents (current 1.02 avg.)
dec 3.5 went up 8 cents (current .54 avg.)
dec 4 went up 7 cents (current .21.5 avg)
dec 3 is a roughly 15% profit
dec 4 is a roughly 50% profit
i believe there’s a bell curve.
you can look at some other examples of good profit days, like LVS options.
The out the money options make a far larger percentage.
Thanks woo.
So it would work out that the more risk you take the bigger the reward. Makes sense. I’m just not sure how delta plays into this.
yeah…i always wondered about that too…
i basically don’t pay attention to the delta in options too much because .5 basically means ur in the money, or close to in the money, and then 0 and 1 are on the opposite spectrums haha.
i know that you can see the discrepancy more with long term LEAPs, but i remember reading that there is a bell curve, and the further out you get from in the money, the formula used for figuring out the options prices starts skewing a lot where there is much more reward (and risk).
the trick is to find the right expiration and the right strike to optimize your returns. i’m no expert on that portion yet. if i find any interesting reads on this, i’ll let you know.
Thanks bud.
I do not short stocks (yet) but some traders are shorting OWW – it popped up when I was looking at PCLN. The person posting said “how long before PCLN kills OWW”.
I know nothing about this stock, but the chart looked ugly (or deliciously ripe if you short equities). This is not a recommendation on my part.
i really want to short something badly…
but i am going to resist and wait. *sigh*
profits are great but capital conservation is most important. Probably wise move.
Just tell Mrs. Woo to wait until next month for the new fur coat
Bought half a position of QQQQ Jan 51 puts @1.15. Will wait for next week to see what’s in store.
The way I am reading the current market is that if the financials do not start moving up then we end in red.
like 1 cent up or 1 cent down …. that’s really flat IMO. I love though is the SPY ends up 1 cent the headlines will read downtrend broken or uptrend confirmed or other nonsense.
or more up….again….rinse…repeat….
same old, same old.
Crazy chit.
Just like I said earlier unless the financials make a move up, which they did, the market ends in red but somehome they edged up and we turned green. A good ending for the market to continue bullish for next week. I agree with woo we have a good chance of breaking the 1200 next week and possibly hitting that 1210 range again before the possible bad numbers come out for black Friday.
market is starting to get a bit bullish. we could see a rise to the 1207-1210 area next week in anticipation of the holidays.
i’m assuming the black friday shopping numbers will be bad, and starting after thanksgiving, we might get that stronger drop towards the 1140s.
i’m still sitting out. there’s a chance for more coiling/wedging to happen.
off to vegas =)
enjoy
Hey Woo with all the gambling experience you have gained in the market you should be able to clean their clock out there lolol.
Isn’t it strange how the SPX came within .03 of 1200? HMMMMMMMMM looks to be bullish to me.