Election day! Who will take majority in House and Senate? How will the markets react to the elections?
3:05pm
I circled the different support levels that I see as worth buying into CEL (remember to cut your position into 4 hits). CEL has almost a 10% dividend, and with the Dow Jones hitting resistance, I would like to hold a dividend stock (just in case we get a pullback). The support levels are the 20 SMA daily, and the fib retracements, the 50% being the strongest of them all in this case. As the stock falls, the dividend yield in percentage increases unless they cut the dividend. Here’s the daily:
3:01pm
Dow Jones at DOUBLE TOP resistance today.
2:53pm
EBAY will probably get another 1-2.5 points (3-6% rally) before it goes in to a major push lower.. Take a look at how overbought this stock is… with the megaphone formation on the weekly, I look to short the stock at the resistance line:
1:13pm
Can everyone see VMW? Look at the daily action.. I can see the H&S is forming very nicely.. might be worth a short today with a tight stop (due to reversal on the daily). I’m short at 77.40, stop at 78.50.
1:06pm
Another overbought that i consider shorting is TTM but only if it falls below $28, an obvious support level. If the short can break $28 I think the stock can start a nice correction lower (which i want to be a part of). By shorting right under $28, your stop will be as close as can be – maybe as close as $28.05 or $28.10 (you choice). Here’s the hourly:
12:52pm
QSFT is my next very overbought stock, currently the daily has a nice reversal candle, I think it’s worth a short right here, maybe enter only 1/3 of a position and look to enter the others if QSFT rallies any higher. But i think this stock can see a 10% correction soon:
12:21pm
XLF not fairing so well despite SPY being up 0.7%, but I don’t think the SPY could hold it’s gains if the XLF starts breaking down.
11:46am
XLF 60 minute still in a triangle formation. anybody got any trades involving the XLF? I think it’s a buy if we get above triangle resistance. Here’ the chart.
12:01am
There’s no doubt, today will shape the markets in a few ways but let’s stick to the charts and look at some trades:
1. SPY 1 minute shows that $118.65-118.70 is a strong resistance and support level.. This is the level you should be looking at for intraday trades today on both long and short opportunities. Go long if we break back above it.. or short it with a stop above it.
2. Need a list of high yield dividend stocks? Take a look at the following:
AGNC, CIM, RSO, NLY, HTS, ANH, FORTY, MFA, TNK, NZT, CEL
I like CEL a lot, but it needs to pull back first. If you want some exposure to the israeli economy, it’s a great buy with almost 10% dividend yeild. If you wait for a pull back you’ll definitely get an annual yield of at least 10% if not 11-12%. As stock prices fall, the dividend yield moves higher unless the dividend is cut (keep that in mind).
3. I think it’s time to look at UNG as a potential buy. With a nice strong push lower yesterday due to a hit of the 20 SMA on the daily, it might be the push we need to get in on this ETF. This ETF has been beat and a shove up to the high single digits or even low teens is very possible in the next 2 years. I’ll be looking at this stock more intensely tomorrow.
4. RIMM fell as we expected it would (forming the right shoulder of the inverse H&S it has) -> look at yesterday’s post for more details. We expect some more downside to $55 at least.
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I want to ask you a real question. Who in the world has ever gave you such a accurate forecast that I gave you on last Friday. I was wondring why people can not recognize this huge accurate forecast and instad of aprreciating start saying , ” no two years ago you said somthing and that was not correct” ,
I copied my Friday forcast below and just look what happened to every world I told you:
I said Monday we will gap up” ================> Priced gapped up =================> Huge accurate forecas
I said Monday Nasdaq will go to April high” ================> Nasdaq went to April high =================> Huge accurate forecas
I said Mondayprice will sell off hard at nasdaq april high” ================> Priced went just to april high on Nasdaq and sold off huge======> Huge accurate forecas
I said price will rebound after sell off” ================> Priced sold off and hen rebonded huge=================> Huge accurate forecas
HUGE profit booked only yesterday and this money that I made is just huge huge
SWBB
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sam says:
October 29, 2010 at 6:44 pm
The best opportunity in the world is on Monday if we gap up huge like last week. Then I am going to load a huge shorts right at Nasaq douple top. Nasdaq will be at its April high if we hopfully gap up on Monday then I expect a huge sell off off the nasdaq high to start, but since we will have election and FOMC i think we will rebound and then end of week we will see off again. Ok lets hope for huge gap up on monday following huge sell off
have agood weekend
SWBB
You need to give us an entry point and tell us an exit point exactly when you do it. That’s the only way to prove accuracy.
Sam, you made forecast at 6:44 pm last Friday. If you buy SPY call and made forcase, other traders could benefit more.
http://advisoranalyst.com/glablog/2010/11/01/extreme-readings-in-bullish-investor-sentiment-as-insiders-bail-at-highest-rate-ever-tracked/
Here comes another reversal day.
so far.. no reversal.. but the XLF isn’t doing too well.
I am highly alert for a quick down move up to 10 % in the time period between Nov 02 until Nov 18th.
Watch out for any false breaks to the up side or any reversals as a trigger.
Next leg up should start from beginning of Dec and may last until beginning of March 2011 for the final top before the bear market will start again for a several year down cycle.
what do you mean by a down move up?
“I know that you believe you understand what you think I said, but I’m not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant.”
something between 5 and 10 % down…..sorry bad english !
What are we going to do about BAC and JPM.. they are hurting.. i don’t even know why.
JPM HAS A SEC INVESTIGATION ABOUT THEIR ASSET ALLOCATIONS.
why the caps? And the investigation came along about 3 weeks after the shoot down, and why BAC then? And why WFC then?
Why is GS doing well ? I think it’s for a different reason.
Why the caps? because they were on lol my bad. Read the link that I posted bro.
Here is the link: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sec-investigating-jp-morgan-over-cdo-propublica-2010-11-01?reflink=MW_news_stmp
BAC fall is because of junk mortgage.
Most likely.. then why did they decide to start foreclosures again.. makes no sense.
Idan, what is your forecast about market movement fro next few days adn weeks?
The SPY can still move higher, but it seems like a lot of things are falling apart, i think the time to buy is practically over.. at this point i’m looking for high dividend yeild stocks to put money into (for 10-20% yields).
I think there are a lot of shorting opportunities that will come into play in the next week or two.. i’ll put those up when i can.
I rather wait and see right now though.. the direction is still up but the fact that the SPY is moving up with Tech and NOTHING else worries me (if i were to be a bull here).
Woo made great forecast yesterday that market would move up. Maybe because of midterm election and FOAM day?
And I converted it to cash
Bought 72 SPY 120 Dec Contracts yesterday at 2.60
Sold 72 SPY 120 Dec Contracts today at 2.92
Profit = ~ 2800 dollars
Idan,
i bought 20 SPY Dec calls yesterday at 340each. I sold 10of them this mornign at 405 and booked huige profit. I am still holding another 10 of them and hopying for a short covering rally toward 1200 to sell the other 10 and book another huge profit.
SWBB
you should let us know the trade you are making when you make it and not in hindsight.
There is one more push up in this market and then a huge sell off. market will pass the april high on DOW. At that time everone is going to cut thier loss and go long as they think this is a break out, but guess what. Once we break abovbe april high on dow and go 20~40 points higher then that is where i will sell all my longs with huge profit and i wil go short. Oppsite what most people do. That is why i am huge successful.
SWBB
good plan , I will short this sucker too
cheers !
SWBB
Anyone have any thoughts on CSTR? Potential alliance with Amazon.com. regarding the offering of digital content. Can this be another NFLX?
Looking at the 1min on BP looks as if it is getting ready to break out to the upside towards 42ish. They got a buy rate today and beat earnings. What do you guys think?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p36207254693&a=160222837
if that trend line breaks, we’re heading to the low 1200s.
trend line broken.
Don’t see a trendline on your chart.
for some reason i can’t upload photos anymore.
right now it’s slightly under the trend line. maybe these shortened stockcharts charts can’t be seen publicly.
Just a reminder……several days ago I mentioned SBX when it was trading around $8.40. The 12 month target was increased to $11.00 by FB&R this AM. Just announced .25 in earnings for the past quarter. Amazingly, this thing has a book value of $16.38. I know this site is mostly TA related, but is there anyone who can show me a company that has over $700 million in cash, strong earnings and a book value that is almost twice the current share price? Guys, this one is a no-brainer! Get some now……you WILL thank me later!
Here is a link regarding the prop19 and what I said about MJNA yesterday being a “pipe” dream. It will not pass.http://www.sacbee.com/2010/10/31/3146298/prop-19-trailing-by-7-points-in.html
http://www.sacbee.com/2010/10/31/3146298/prop-19-trailing-by-7-points-in.html
Idan….looking at CEL, I see modest support at $32.70. It found support there earlier today. Do you see that as a buy point, or do you see some additional downside?
The 20 SMA at 32.70 is a good spot.. but it just rallied sooo much.. i think it might need some more consolidation down.. but maybe take 10% of your portfolio, cut it into 4.. pile 1/4 at 32.70.. the rest as it goes lower… average your cost basis down.. and make yourself a nice 10% a year annually just from the dividend
Thanks! Gotta love that divy!
I just posted a post on CEL, look above
Thanks Idan! Will be watching for an entry point in the next day or so!
Ssssh. In the immortal words of Elmer Fudd, “Be vewwy quiet.” We’re hunting pewmabeaws.
Woo, market was on sideway for past 2 weeks, how comes it forms upside trend? Can you give us some headup.
sideways is usually viewed as consolidation if it happens after a massive rally… we are still in an uptrend.
i think it generally has to do with the 38-61% fibs towards a projected end point. as u get closer to your end point peak, your range for the 38-61% fibs from the rising lows to the peak get higher and higher, and tighter. so we’re probably very close to topping out (not sure if it’s short term or long term).
you can also think of it in terms of supply and demand. Buyers and Sellers fight to establish a price, as they get closer to what the market feels is a correct price, the market consolidates between a specific area. when something else offsets the market, or they feel the current price is actually overpriced or underpriced, you get movement to offset that previous sentiment.
if the 1093 area holds long enough, this will break new highs. if not, we’ll head to the next support below here…around 1091 which will mean, it will take a bit longer to head north.
Woo, thanks!
lol…I am thinking of adding to my QID…good idea or bad…any advice would be greatly appreciated
well.. dow jones hitting double top resistance this week… so it’s the best time to put a QID position with a tight stop.
Depending on how the general market behaves, CLF looks like a good long candidate. I can see a target of $75 in the not so distant future.
Wow market ripping after hours – any news???
no clue.. but it’s only about 30 cents.. not too big.. could be just an election pump up.
a lot of selloff after hours for SPY and IMW. Tomorrow could be a down day.
where do you see a sell off on spy? The SPY is trading at 119.74.. and it closed at 119.47
i think it’s just a mistake by google.
idan is right, SPY is currently trading live between 119.73-119.76
Market watchers were hopeful as Americans voted in elections that are expected to see a sharp swing to the Republicans, whom investors often view as more business-friendly. Stocks have tended to fare well following midterm elections. The S&P 500 has gained an average of nearly 16% in the year following a midterm election, with positive returns every time since World War II, according to a Bespoke Investment Group analysis.
that was based on fundamentals!!!
SPY at 120+
AS projected and baked into the market the republicans will rule the house. No surprise there. As for the senate I still maintain the democrats will have an edge there maybe not as much but still an edge. The key now is what happens with FOMC announcement.
yep