2:59pm
I hear a lot of talk about shorting AAPL, it’s close to 300 and so forth. But in my view the intraday action that I see on AAPL does not support shorting just yet… I want to see a full reversal day or a massive gap down before I can start considering shorting this stock… it’s strong, and it can rally to 310 before you see any pull back.
2:28pm
Sorry i updated the chart below… it was wrong.
11:39am
EUR/USD finished what could be a great corrective A/B/C curve.. where the C is equivalent to A, and B is a great fibonacci retracement. Also the whole ABC move is right around the 61.8% retracement of the whole move lower of the euro. This is really the last potential reversal that I see for the dollar against the euro here:
11:14am
Anybody trying to prematurely short AXP here? We have a very nice Head and Shoulders on the daily and we hit the neckline the third time at 37.50 a few days ago and have been sort of just forming a bear flag since. Anybody taking a short at that, or maybe a long with a stop below the neckline?
Sam do you still have FSLR going to 200+ even if the market rolls over? What’s a good stop loss on that in case it rolls over w the market?
FSLR is still working on its base. The explosive rally needs a powerful base, so it will take some time. I will buy bext week as I see price may drop to 125~130 then explosive rally will start in my opinion.
SWBB
If it falls below $135 it will have lost it’s upward channel it’s been in since beginning of July. If you ask me it’d be wildly optimistic to expect an explosive rally to $200 after a loss of upward momentum like that.
That being said I favor the idea of playing the bottom of the upward channel @ $135 with a nov call or buying the stock with a stop below it looking for a rise to the 147 area.
Here is a chart showing what I’m talking about
Thanks for both!!
the ERX puts i bought yesterday and posted in my FE buzz worked out really well. hoping for a further drop without stopping out. keep my stops tight though.
ERX nov 36 puts
bot @ 2.40
sold @ 3.00
Nice woo. It really looks like the S&P wants to roll over.
it just might. we’re below the 1162 trend line at the moment and we’ve already played with the long term wedge trend line north of here that i’ve showed a number of times.
i’m very tempted to start adding more longer term short/put positions on SPY. maybe dec. puts.
SPY nov 114 puts
bot @ 2.12
current stop @ 2.00
stopped out pretty quickly. not worth the risk here back above that trend line. might be done for the day. happy with my 25% ERX put profit.
yeah, specially after than nice gain you don’t want to give it all up. I think this is a good spot to add a little to a longer term (not Nov) puts, like you said.
I just don’t see how this market will move straight up without a nice little correction. The market is overbought and the VIX needs a nice bounce.
Bought a AVP put this morning, buyout rumor of $44 price seems bogus to me. Only bought one $34 Nov put.
Bought FAZ Nov 13 call @ 1.07
Bought UUP Dec 22 call @ .75. I like the idea of a dollar bounce over the next month even if it’s muted.
This from McHugh this morning:The VIX registered a set up for another rare sell signal Monday, October 11th, when it closed below its 2 standard deviation bottom Bollinger band. Once it rises back above that bottom boundary, it will have generated its second sell signal in a month. The Futures overnight are down hard, suggesting a down day for Tuesday, which should do the trick, moving the VIX back above that bottom boundary line, triggering a sell signal. The sell signals we are watching for are in our key trend-finder indicators, which are momentum indicators. Once we get those sell signals, stocks should fall hard, wave 3-down. The last sell signal in the VIX came on September 7th, and so far that has not proved prescient. VIX sell signal failures are rare. It would be very rare for two VIX sell signals in a row to fail.
Monday was the three year anniversary for the all-time nominal top in the Industrials, and the start of Grand Supercycle Degree wave {IV} down, about 3,200 points higher than Monday’s close. If you paid attention to the mainstream financial press, you’d swear we hit a new all-time high Monday. That October 2007 top came after an extended persistent rally that did not seem to want to stop. Monday’s McClellan Oscillator had a small change, falling 8.80 Monday, suggesting a large price move is coming over the next few days.
The rally from late August is very similar to the rally from March through April of this year. See the chart on page 8. That did not end well, but sure had Bears unnerved for a while. This rally should have a similar result.
Gold set a new closing all-time high Monday. Our Conservative Portfolio has had a significant position in Gold since we started it in 2006.
The Industrials rose 3.86 points Monday, closing at 11,010.34. NYSE volume fell to 78 percent of its 10 day average. Downside volume led at 54 percent, with advancing issues at 55 percent, with upside points at 57 percent in mixed trading. S&P 500 Demand Power fell 3 points to 393, while Supply Pressure was flat at 352, telling us buyers retreated. The Demand Power Indicator rose decisively above the Supply Pressure Indicator Friday, September 3rd, triggering an “Enter Long” positions signal, and remains there Monday, October 11th. New NYSE 52 Week Highs rose to 268, with New Lows at 3.
The percent of DJIA stocks above their 30 day moving average rose to 93.33 from 90.00. The percent above 10 day remained at 80.00. The percent above 5 day fell to 66.67 from 76.67. The NYSE 10 day average Advance/Decline Line Indicator rose to positive + 462.9, remaining on a “buy” signal from September 2nd, 2010, needing to fall below the negative – 120.00 threshold necessary for a new “sell.” Our three Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators (other than the Demand Power/Supply Pressure Indicator) remain on a “buy” signal Monday. The DJIA 30 day Stochastic Fast rose to 93.33, above the Slow at 90.00, remaining on a “buy” signal from September 1st. The DJIA 14 day Stochastic Fast remained at 83.33, above the Slow at 77.22, remaining on a “buy” signal from October 5th. The Fast had to rise more than 10 points above the Slow for a new “buy.” The S&P 500 Purchasing Power Indicator rose to negative -67.34, remaining on a “buy” signal from September 1st, needing to fall below negative -73.34 for a new sell.
The NASDAQ 100 fell 0.05 points Monday, closing at 2,026.98. The Russell 2000 fell 0.36 points Monday, closing at 693.46. The HUI rose 1.31 points to 522.57 Monday. November Gold rose to 1351.0; Silver fell to 23.14, while November Oil fell to 81.60. The U.S. Dollar rose 0.18 to 77.44. Bonds were flat at 134^09. The VIX fell 1.75 to 18.96, remaining on a sell signal from September 7th.
Thank you for the post.
You’re welcome! And so no one thinks I am sharing info from a sub service, not the case. He sends this out in an attempt to get me to subscribe.
Thanks
Bought SPY Oct 116 Put @ .64 with a tight stop.
I think these puts will be up nicely by the end of day.
Stopped at .59
Boy am I pissed. Found a great undervalued play over a month ago….and didn’t pull the trigger. Look what DAR has done since that time. Sheesh!
You know what would have happened if you had bought it right?
That’s for sure. Me and my frickin’ luck.
By the way, you have any thoughts on TZA at this level? Anyone?
It’s quite risky right now. It seems to be towards the end of a bullish falling wedge right now so within the next few days it should break out so you could wait for the breakout and backtest and then get in. The markets being so overbought right though I would may nibble a little around 23.20 and if it drops average down but it’s a bit risky as we don’t know how long the falling wedge would continue.
doesn’t a person only have one gut?? my gut feeling is to buy FAZ calls for the parade of financial earnings coming out in the next week…but my other gut is to buy puts in JPM reporting tomorrow..
what to do…JPM in a nasty down channel and is at the top of the it now…can’t see it pass 40ish…
FAZ in a massive bull flag and at the bottom of the channel..can only go up..
what to do??
articfire pulled the trigger on some FAZ calls.
it hasn’t been able to break north of a long term channel for quite some time.
Idan,
AXP look appealing but I think shorting now poses a risk of retrace to 39-40 level first. I wouldn’t go long though because I can see the market turning south. The slow stochastic and RSI are turning up on it too. I’d rather be a little more safe on this as today it’s green althought the market in general is slightly weak.
Yeah… def.. i think it’s premature still.
Idan what’s with posting a month old EUR/Dollar chart? I agree with the analysis though.
sry.. i didn’t know why my computer couldn’t upload the more recent picture.
Jimbo’s pick from last week KG King Pharma taken over today at a 40% premium, wow!!!!
SAC.V south am silver up another 5% on rumor of takeout at $2.50 by GoldCorp. SAC.V at 1.07
up from the .58 buy recommendation less than a month ago. SouthAmSil looks like its the only
PM explorer adding to gains in a bad day for PM stocks.
BVG.V Bravo Gold is a longshot with huge potential to the brave. Careful, its illiquid and a lotto
ticket. Jimmy has a buy @.175 without stops* and a target of .90. *Venture MM love to move
markets just to make monkeys out of investors or gamblers.
Still very negative on for profit education and has reshorted COCO @6.25 and cover target of
$4.75. Funny, he started the negative coverage 2 months ago on edu and now CNBC has taken
up his cause? COCO has overpriced options, be careful!!!!
On another front, JimCramer is now endorsing IOC Interoil as a potential threefold from its current
67$. A long time Jimbo fave is gaining supporters, time to take profits? Funny, after cramer
recommends/pushes IOC the stock is down today on no volume–never a good sign.
China buy of stake in texas shale gas production may spur a renewed price rise in shale juniors such as
KOG Kodiak Oil NOG Northern Oil and Gas and consider buys on any pullbacks.
Prince,
Can you send me the link to Jimbo’s website if I provide an email address?
Posted all over the place here, not sure if linx are allowed but take the name, add ’1′ @gmail.com
he is also a feature contrib at stockhouse dot com and dot ca for micro cap junior miners.
Not sure if he still posts at NorthernMiner dot com ?
Thanks Prince. By the way, is it Jimbo or Jimbho. Pretty sure I’ve seen it both ways.
it’s fine to post a link. i like jim. he just needs to watch some of the racial slurs haha.
Woo…..I notice in your photo that you enjoy a good Ale. What are your favorites?
I generally like smoother beers that aren’t too light. similar to a newcastle brown ale or other hazelnut brown ales they have at local breweries.
guiness is generally too strong for my palette, hefs are too bitter (if that’s what you’d call the taste), and lighter beers make me feel like i’m drinking watered down beer.
There are some really good oktoberfest beers that i’ve tried, but i don’t remember the names.
more than beer, i prefer a good single malt whiskey on the rocks with a madura type cigar. =P
I’m a Pale Ale and IPA enthusiast. If available in your area, I would suggest Mirror Pond (Deschutes Brewery out of Bend, Oregon) or Sierra Nevada Pale ale. I like the Newcastle from a bottle, but had my first draft the other day and it was way too bitter. I’m not sure why the big difference in taste.
I like Sierra Nevada. Also don’t mind a blue moon on tap with an orange.
i love market topping. As i told you 100 times every drop has to be bought. Made again tons of money by bying oct calls this morning in a sell off and made tons of money. This is typical market toppoing that i love a lot. as i said several times i need one flash rally to dump all my long and start loading shorts. As i said i will not short until i get coinfirmation
tomoorw we may see a short covering rally open
SWBB
lets hope we get a good earning on INTC and a fake short covering rally tomorrow monring toward 117~117.5 and then a huge fall after that. I am waiting for this to load my huge short
SWBB
gld still going to drop big this week?
Yeah, wondering if sam McZee is still short gold from 100 back? Near as bad as his bidu fiasco,
but…..shhhhhhhh…not allowed to discuss massive, silly, insane losses, lol.
Folks, take a look at this chart courtesy of Cobra’s blog.
http://lh5.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/TLOr4tXPDLI/AAAAAAAAI1M/JfreYERoyZU/s1600-h/VIXtoVXVRatioWatch%5B2%5D.png
Here’s the longer term VIX:
so what do you think mr woo…with financials reporting this week and vix at all time lows, pretty much…faz in a bull flag…you think we get that sell off. man, this grinding is like a fungus…it won’t go away.
lol
i think volaility is going to keep dying off.
I think we’re creating a similar vix pattern to may-june 2009 (or around there).
So we’ll see a fall, and then a new downward channel form on the VIX under the white trend line we just broke.
I’m not sure if this is enough to get us into new highs or not. Either way, this is going to be a painful end of the year in terms of market movement with the volatility so low. I’m still more inclined to this meaning that we’ll be wedging possibly even into december between the current highs to the 1050-1060+ area.
I also wouldn’t be surprised if we got a fall all the way down to the 200ma on a retrace prior to any major bounce.
If we break north, then it will keep going higher by a good amount probably above the previous highs, so i am not worried about missing the long profits by leaning short.
Expect earning to be bad even with padding. QE2 is the fed shoring losses at banks,
this time they will do a japan thing and offer to start buying corp bonds, reits AND REAL ESTATE
OUTRIGHT !!!!
IMHO Anything under 1.5TT in QE will send markets down, this is the fed’s last rodeo and
ben will stop at nothing to devalue the buck.
Any way you slice this gold and silver along with PGM’s will be huge beneficiaries, calls on Feb/Mar
gold or sliver calls will result in massive, huge, giant Sam McZee sized gains.
Those calling tops or rolling tops are gonna get killed on the short side, the fed will make cash
an ugly word.
Good luck all. Only thing that can derail this is outright nuclear war between China and India.
does india even have nuclear weapons? haha
Yes, and rocket powered turbans to deliver with. They built nuclear bombs from the Canadian
Reactors paid for by taxpayers in usa and canada.
All those 3rd world nations want nuclear first and food 2nd.
UAUA broke the trend line and is hitting new short term highs. missed out on this one. i’ll have to come up with a new projection since the minimum 26.50s projection has already hit.
Moratorium on deep water drilling has been lifted today watch your oil stocks rise.
ATPG and MRO are existing plays thwarted by shutdown, should see huge, massive, giant sized
Sammy type gains over the next week, lol. MRO is a fave.
Yea and how much you wanna bet Samster loaded up big on them for HUGE HUGE HUGE PROFITS because the BIG BOYS told him to bend over? ROTFLMAO
Wrong symbol above, McMoran Expl s/b MMR. Now at ~20 so would wait for drawback to
$14 if we get it.
Stop with the critique of Sam McZee . . . starting to sound like me and may make poor
sensitive types cry or whimper, lol. I like sammy, he has made me giant, huge, massive,
throbbing, inflamed profits.
LOL
anyone doing anything with INTC?
long term trend line cracked a bit.
but remember to look at the end of 2007 as the reference for the inverse H&S formation long term. we can break the line a little and still hold formation.
no positions into tomorrow.
As the train to paradise keeps a chugging away. Down 90points and now up 40+ keep those presses a printing TV president!
1250 it is.
Woo, am I delusional or does ICE look tasty at the current level?
I haven’t looked at ICE in a long time…
if it can hold that line it can probably gap up a good amount. However, I wouldn’t hold any long positions under that line.
Isn’t that a valid Inverse H&S formation with a target in the $128 range?
could be.
but what if it’s a larger normal H&S with shoulders in the 113-115 area?
Can anybody comment on why the VIX options are suddenly so thinly traded? There is just no volume. Is it even worth trading anymore?
I guess everybody is trading VXX now.
I haven’t looked at these options close to a year though.
testing a very small SPY put position.
in case you’re curious
nov 115 puts
bot @ 1.97
Same ones I bought,
that’s a close ABOVE the long term trend line.
still have my short term minimum 312 target on AAPL.