5:13 PM
Tze
Video (Part 3): Prechter – Investing in Extreme Markets
(Note: This interview was originally recorded on September 20, 2010)
In the video below, Robert Prechter talks to Yahoo! Finance Tech Ticker host Aaron Task and Henry Blodget about a technical pattern he sees forming in the Dow.
Get Up to Speed on Robert Prechter’s Latest Perspective — Download this Special FREE Report Now.
2:47pm
SPY hourly touches the 113.20 twice today, i will be taking a short on a daily close below that mark. here’s the 60 min:
9:50am
We continue to play around the 115 level on the SPY… but in order for the bulls to really breakout to new highs they need at least a close on the daily above 115. Otherwise we can still do a lot of damage to the downside, if 113.20 is broken down.
What are your thoughts, how are you playing the SPY? Breakout or Breakdown?
This week should be very interesting in the market. I am looking for a continuation of most of my positions. Currently I have:
BIDU puts (oct & nov)
VZ put, (nov) only one contract left, sold all but one for a small profit last week
C calls (oct & dec)
F calls (nov)
FAZ calls (oct) small position , a hedge vs a big XLF dump that drags C down
BIDU – looking for a gap down and a healthy sell off after an initial bull push to $100 trying to deny reality.
C – looking for continuation this week slow and steady up towards the 4.30 area.
VZ – looking for a couple good red days taking us down to the $30 area
F – in a compressing wedge and I expect a break up sometime this week heading for $13+
Happy trading folks.
I am glad you listened to me. I told you to go short on BIDU when it was 106
I like your F position also. F still has a lot of room to the upside and I always bullish on it
SWBB
I will say thank you for alerting me to the overbought state of BIDU. That being said I made my choice and targets based on my own analysis not yours. Still it was a good call on your part and I tip my hat in this case, even though you second guessed yourself and got out to soon imo.
i’m 100% cash right now.
just waiting for a chance to move on something.
should be a good week, it was last week for me
Going aganist the crowd is my plan for this week. Big boys are eting ready for pulling out the rug. Stay away from that rug.
SWBB
Great work, love your call shorting gold at its bottom, must have massive profits to crow and
brag about on that one?
Arcticfire,what is your target down for BIDU before a run back up to $100
Not at the house atm , but if I recall (not at my trading computer atm) $81 about is the bottom of the current channel I have drawn. That would be my low end target, once we hit $90 thow I will be placing stops as that will be a healthy profit and I will want to lock it in.
A lot of it depends on exactly how far and how fast it decides to drop. I see we are forming a nice gap & island top like I mentioned expecting on Friday. If we don’t see an immediate attempt by the bulls to fill that gap and we just sell off hard then while I will sell my Oct Puts somewhere around $90, I very well may hang onto my Nov puts looking for that bottom $80 area target.
Thanks Arctifire
Here is my BIDU chart btw now that I’m home. We are likely to find some support at the next options level of $95 before breaking that and heading lower.
Thanks for the TA,you must be rocking today
I have October strangles on the SPY that are already slightly profitable. Waiting for a breakout or breakdown to increase profit. Waiting for godot!
UNG is tanking big don’t touch that falling knife.
SPY 30 min showing a symmetrical triangle which should break either way later today…waiting patiently.
…and it broke down, waiting to see if I can get a better price entry on SPY Nov 114 puts.
Of the two longs I bought Friday, NEP doing real well, IMAX not as well.
As I mentioned above F has broken above it’s compressing wedge seen here. I hold Nov $14 calls and will be looking for overbought conditions to exit the position
Meltdown city.
holding dec vix 40 puts
nov spy 124 puts
nov fxe 143 puts
Just bought a lil of Sam’s fslr jan 180 calls
I see vix at 26 eod.
Having a big sell off!!
Nearing the SPY 113.20. Does it hold or breakdown? Me think it is finally going to fall and fall hard…..THUD.
Yup, its as good as done at 113.20. Probably fill the 112.5 gap on spy by eod. Oil holding up that’s why I’m comfortable with a fslr long as my only long position.
Last week I wrote that although my targets were still 11200 I was growing increasingly nervous with the bullishness and everybody calling SPY 1300 and so. I think I specifically wrote that the market tends to negate the goal when all the herd is talking about it. The timing is just perfect the powers that be made the shorts (my self included) have to stay short during the weekend to get the sell off on a monday (go figure that one). Well it is what it is….I am short since friday a decent amount of NFLX still waiting for the 140s. I also bought this morning 500 shares of VXX at 17.35 and I am planning to buy some FAZ later depending on how the afternoon goes….
In case you haven’t noticed, market tends to negate the goal when Focal Equity folks are talking about it. The herd has long since gone into bonds and short-term cash instruments. It’s just the BB’s and the small and medium sized traders and the small and medium sized traders are getting screwed.
Midday broad market update http://bidhitter.com/midday-updates/midday-broad-market-update-for-1042010/
One note of caution though is that VXX has not move as expected with the drop….This is a sanity check to which I pay a lot of attention because it can be telling me that this is a trap and I need to be careful…
The vxx is a piece of shit. Man up and trade the vix options, they are up huge and I’m makin cash with that.
8% move by noon.
Man, this is what happens when you work and trade at the same time. Missed out on the entry. Hopefully we’ll get a back test.
LEI a top jimbho pick is up 12% on a weak dow and oil day, lucas oil is breaking out and headed to the
moon.
ffiv takeover?
Just remember though with such a volitile market it can turn right around as fast as it gapped down. Don’t be surprised if it goes back to flat if not green by EOD.
wrong, vix up too much for that to happen.
no gaps in last 3 days, could see a big ass red bar today cause we don’t need to go back up now.
So I thought today we’re suppose to have a live trading video session.
What happened to this site?
i told yoy this morning that the rug is going to be pulled out. huge profit
SWBB
typical sam BS.
fake trades, lame posts.
i wish you and all your other personalities here would get lost.
you add nothing to Focal Equity.
Hey tshirt,
Are you short this market?
almost bought those spy puts this morning but wasn’t really feeling it.
wish i did.
i’m 100% cash and kind of enjoying the break!
I hold some HOD.TO to short oil via the etf but about 80% cash and looking to go short. I also missed buying the SPY puts due to work.
Look at my prediction for FSLR during last 20 days. HUGE huge correct foreacst .I told you everythng about FSLR 20 days in advance and i told you at least huderen of time what exactly will happen to FSLR . LOOK at my below post at september 26th. Hugecorrect forecast so far. I am geeting ready to go huge long once the base complete at around 140. Huge explosive rally will come after the base complete. I expect the rally to come above 200 by next few month, may be by december. Huge
SWBB
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_zXv3P4egxe0/TJ917kxu9iI/AAAAAAAAAes/5-c0aMMPnP0/s1600/FSLR-2.bmp
good call Sam. I played it to a tee so far. Now we’ll see how your explosive rally plays out.
While I don’t disagree with your rally idea I want to see some compression against resistance first before I would be willing to take a position based on the idea. The below chart shows this scenario, green line being more bullish $140 acting as strong support, but the yellow is the one I expect to be more likely. The purple oval is where I would like to pick up some calls if we see either of the 2 scenario’s appear, either way this point arrives at about the same time place.
Without this I don’t feel comfortable playing for a big rally as we just came off the top of a big channel resistance line and a long slow fall is certainly possible.
Articfire,thanks for the analysis on BIDU , sold half and hopefully we break $95 by Wed,great chart. .
Happy it helped you make some $
I still need the break of $95 for my positions to make me money so here is hoping the second half of my statement comes to pass as well 
It found a little support today at $95 like I anticipated now with a little follow through by the bears I can be happy camper with my positions!
Tomorrow and Wednesday are POMO days as well. After that there is no scheduled POMOs until they announce them on Oct 13. So that may support the correction we’ve been waiting for. Unless 1122 is taken out today I’ll wait until Wednesday to see if it’s a good idea to short then.
histogram on macd now negative.
Are you looking at the SPY?
Has anyone noticed there were no down days on POMO days? So why not wait until Wednesday to short?
that’s definately not true. Two of the earlier POMO days were red (about a month or two ago), and I thought there may have been another one recently, although I may be incorrect on that. However, majority of POMO days have been up.
However, I agree, it’s like swimming against the tide, especially between 10am – 11am ish.
Thanks Rob, I guess it’s not full proof. I was just trying to determine if I should short now or wait until Benny’s buying spree is finished on Wednesday.
I may just play it safe, unless 1122 breaks.
BTW, I believe this “market up” market down stuff is bull. Market can be red all day, and turn around last 5 min, squeek out a small gain and that’s an up day. IMO, that’s not really an up day
stopped out of my imax for 1.5% loss, my new love is NEP, but I’m not too attached (it’s only been a 2 day relationship). Nice to be up 10% on a stock for once, and not even a 3X ETF. Still holding vxx, still deeply underwater with that one.
Going to put in stops on NEP, I have only seen gap ups so far on this, hope a gap down doesnt stop my out.
My inital target for NEP was roughly $8 when I bought.
BTW, anyone trading in an IRA may want to consider converting them to ROTH’s. Works well if account is down and if you anticiapte it will be up. Can also undo conversion next year if you convert and ROTH goes down.
Another solar possibility (was watching for a little while, too busy now to do much) – SPWRA – didnt break out like others, maybe due for a move???
Not recommending either way, just throwing it out there.
I’ve been following it for a few weeks now. I honestly don’t think you’ll see a catch up pop in this one. I thought to play the recent rally of it a bit but elected not to because there is no obvious resistance breaking action going on. Now it’s approaching the 200 DMA , in an overbought on the daily condition and momentum turning against it.
I don’t like this scenario for a break out to the upside. I think it’s going to hit both a channel resistance line, and the 200sma at the same time and break that upward trend line it’s been clinging to for dear life.
Idan,
I just saw your post @ top — did you end up going short SPY?
Nooopeee.. will wait for it tomorrow.
quick market wrap up video
http://www.alphatrends.net/
I think this chat from Cobra’s blog shows just how overbought this market is right now.
http://lh6.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/TKga_hXTFMI/AAAAAAAAIxI/o19UFX2bCKM/s1600-h/COTNasdaq100%5B2%5D.png
Guys, what is POMO?
fed funny money
Fed buys billions of dollars of treasuries and the cash paid is often used to buy equities.
try google, add “zero hedge” if you can’t get a hit.