Tze:
Video (Part 2): Prechter: Ominous Pattern in the DJIA
(Note: This interview was originally recorded on September 20, 2010)
In the video below, Robert Prechter talks to Yahoo! Finance Tech Ticker host Aaron Task and Henry Blodget about a technical pattern he sees forming in the Dow.
Get Up to Speed on Robert Prechter’s Latest Perspective — Download this Special FREE Report Now.
Woo:
Still not there yet…hit that upper line again already…
Market is out of whack and $ keeps getting weaker…However just like when we got to the 10000 and VXX was not going up now it seems that as we try to get to 11000s VXX is not going dow as much and has found strong resistance at the 16.50 level. This could be an indication that a reversal is very close, so pay attention to VXX because its divergence with market moves is an indication of future direction….
Here’s the deal for the day
http://www.spoofee.com/index.php?section=deal&did=694708
I am shorting NFLX as of yesterday 100 shares @165.25.
Woo, yesterday you told me that I just made 1% on my trades in average. Just wanted to remind you that I made 5% on BIDU shortand and aove 2% on FSLR and keep making money on my RIMM long. I don’t know how you calculate 1% !! You always told me to give you entry and exit, if you look back I told ou guys exact time price for entry and exit. Beside 3~5% return in my trade in just 2 or 3 days is huge for me. You have to put your money in bank for 2 years to make such. Besid when I started short confidently from 2 days ago noone ever dare to think about going short given the bullishness in the market. Besid if you look at my short they dropped first way before market sell off yeterday morning and that shows how powerful were my short trade.
SWBB
Actually what you said regarding BIDU was you would short it and hold till $92 for a 12%. You then said you exited your postion when it had only dropped 1% thats what people are talking about not your personal profit % on yoru position. In my opinion you should have stuck to your original trade and waited for it to break support at $100 before exiting or putting in a trailing stop. There is now a shooting star on the weekly for bidu.
People asked me why I cover my short. The answer is now in front of you. Market is going back up and I can take my short either toda or monday again with much bete rprice. Although I said i want to keep short BIDU until 92, but I told you yesterday that I covered wih huge profit. The reason is that I knew we get rally today
SWBB
Dollar is crashing down. So market could still rally until Monday then drop.
SWBB
Got It Sam,
Would you take a BiDU SHort again?
yes, but i will wait until Monday then I will see what price I should short it to make another huge profit.
SWBB
Sammy/zee — how’s your short gold working out? Seems you shorted at 1290 and wanted to cover
at 1270?
Or, we just talk about ‘massive 1% wins’ and ignore losses and guys throwing water ?
Look at my post 10 days ago at http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_zXv3P4egxe0/TJgQhyE_PGI/AAAAAAAAAeU/rEKqmmvdXhk/s1600/QQQQ.bmp
Look what I told you 10 days ago abot QQQQ and what happned yesterday . exactly what I told you 10 days agonat sep 20th.
Now I have to update that chart. I guess the drop will not be what I draw in my chart. I will tell you after we get some kind of fake rally thru Monday. By Monday afternoon we will know exactly what big boy will do.
SWBB
If we get a crash in TLT as I think we will in October then I think market can stay bullish in Oct. That is why I need to look at big boys and update my chart on Monday
SWBB
Do you know guys anybody in the world who is better than me in tradiing? I searched but did not find, so I thought may be you know someone by chance,
SWBB
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warren_Buffett
did you ever think about that smart trader only think about his performance?
yes…sam…you have made some good calls…but your grammar is horrible…hard to read your posts…and aside from calling the qqqq top…and i should say brief top…your pullback prediction didn’t really pan out, ans still think you make alot of your calls after news is out…keep trying though
*Tries to give C a swift kick in the ass* ” Get over the $4 hump !
woops wrong place
Good Morning. This should help the market rally a little, dont you think?
8:32 AM Aug. Personal Income and Outlays Income: +0.5% vs. +0.3% expected, +0.2% prior. Personal spending +0.4% vs. +0.3% expected, +0.4% prior. PCE core price index +0.1% in-line with expected, +0.1% prior
Ya I’m short tlt just to hedge the market. Looking to take some losses on my other puts this am.
Shorting TLT is risky…Gold and TLT have outperformed the S&P and DOW year to date and I think they will continue to do so. Just to give you an example:
YTD TLT is up about 18%
S&P is up roughly 5%
Just bailed on it. Wanted to see it break 104 but doesnt want to right now. small profit is all.
I said by the EU/USD is due for a correction (when I said that EU/USD was at 1.35 roughly). Now it is trading at 1.3760 or so…To back my words with actions I am starting a short position 4 Lots (10K$) in the EU/USD pair 1.3756 is my entry point. I will add more (double the size) to this position if we go up to 1.3840 (where I see the max resistance). I am placing a stop at 1.3920. I expect this pair to drop hard in the days to come. I buy small positions in FX given its volatility which allows me to have such loose stops.
good call. you’ll be happy with that sell I think.
You have got to love my NFLX short….It is getting hammered this morning…I mentioned it three days ago as an overbought stock here you go……I expect some buyers around 143 where I will close this position…..
Nice call
Very nice JROD. You don’t think $150 is initial support?
Yes the daily tells you that 151 should be support…However I find the 60 minute the truth for direction in all the trades I make…Based on the 60 minute this stock will go directly to the 200 SMA which sits at 143 as I write this note
bought 800 NEP @ 6.36 this AM, just to mess around. Maybe this can be added to the parabolic stock list. Blooomberg Asia was talking about this the other night on the radio. Seems interesting. Will play with tight stops. Thank you for your chart / thoughts on this Woo (from yesterdays interday commentary). This is more a gamble position for me.
Only other position in trading account is vxx. Thinking of adding to it (currently 400 shrs held for a few weeks, needless to say, underwater by a bit).
Ooops, forgot to mention, I also own 1.3 shares of POT which were from dividends reinvested that never sold. Fluckers sent me an offer statement to buy it at $130/shr. Too funny.
Any thoughts on UNG? 6.10. Looks good for quick scalp?
I’m liking SCO better than long UNG.
I have forecasted since Late august that we will hit 11200s. Now everybody is talking about it which makes me uncomfortable and I am reconsidering my forecast. The rationale is that the market very seldom does what everybody expects….Therefore I initiated short positions like NFLX that clearly show weakness yesterday…I am for the time being trying to avoid 3x short ETFs (TZA, BGZ, FAZ, etc) since a 300 pop in the market can be a killer if you hold this weapons of mass destruction. Now I am watching closely VXX which has resisted the 16.50 level several times….It does seem that a process for a top is in place right now which could be earlier than what I expected (11200′s). At these levels a favor short positions over long. If you are long it might not be a good idea to sell some and hedge the rest via VXX…
Good Luck Trading
playing with more fire, bt 400 imax @ 18.01
Still have tickets for the NFLX party…Any one wants to join?
What price to re-enter short? seems that it bounce a bit here.
Also, i saw EW guys saying target is point of origin which is 130s or even 100s.
I think right now is a good moment to enter short. It is trading at 155.44 so you could start shorting small positions from this point and add all the way to 161 (if we get there) where there is a gap. This stock is way overbought so It should not have to much pop in it left….This is the strategy I would follow if I were concerned of the entry point and cautious. However if you like to gamble go and test the water right now with a stop above 162….
Thanks JROD.
I’m not much of a gambler, but i’ve been wanting to short this one and missed the golden entrance.
I bought DEC put just to test the water. If you and the EW guy are correct then i’ll be satisfied with a decent gain.
But why a stop aabove 162? do you think it will continue uptrend if it can break that? Sorry, i’m a newbie.
Thanks in advance.
Oh btw, i shorted AMZN & got out this morning with decent gain.
161-161.50 is a gap closure…If we get above 162 we might go much higher on this insane stock…
Today’s resistance and supports
http://www.alphatrends.net/
Market keeps selling of around 1150, still sitting in cash, might take a stab at HOD.TO double short oil etf.
Bought some HOD.TO @ 9.48
added to SCO, average, 13.07.
my BEXP/KOG are performing nicely today. Rumor on GS mgmt buyout at 170
KOG was a jimbho top pick along with SSN and his old fave DEAR. Also LEI lucas energy doing super.
DEAR up 27% from jimbho rec earlier this week, wow.
SAC.V up similar amount, up 7% today, wow.
I think C is getting ready to run up towards $5. The gov won’t be selling any more of it’s remaining 12.5% stake during the blackout period so that will take the downward pressure off a bit and I think allow it to break up past resistance in the weeks to come. Also C has been in the news in a positive light (gov getting out) and that should help spur buying.
I have some Oct $4 calls and some Dec $5 calls working on this idea. Once earnings come out Oct 18th and the gov starts selling again of course we fall back down for whatever level it manages but I intend to release the calls before then.
http://www.stocktiming.com/Friday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
Sam missing huge,huge,huge profits on bidu today
Considering to short AEM.TO short term it may get a bounce though.
I will be looking at shorting Suncor pretty soon as it’s getting close to the upper channel around 34.50 again.
I have puts in NFLX as well.. bought a few days too early though. I am thinking of shorting PCLN at this point. This beast is WAYYYY overbought IMO. any thoughts?
Big boys made a mistake, now I know what they do
Look at my chart. I will updated you next week.
http://bigboysactionwallstreet.blogspot.com/2010/10/no-crash-for-now.html
SWBB
You are absolutely correct Sam, I have never seen any prepare a chart the likes of which you posted. You put everyone else to shame.
I shorted BIDU at 105.5 and covered at 100.5. How is this 1%?????
I do not know what some people say this is one percent
Beside I told you I am out , when I covered. beacuse I knew the today’s rally in advance,
Why should I stay with my original plan toward 92 while I knew there is a rally today
WHY?
SWBB
What rally what exchange are you watching?
great call on the NFLX short JROD. It hit against a long term trend line support line at the lows of the day. If it can break under those lows, it will probably drop to 145 in a hurry. if this area holds, it could get a little dangerous though.
Thanks Woo. I agree with you. I see NFLX going down to the low 140s and it could even reach 130s (this might be pushing it though). However this stock is one of the darlings of fund managers so it can turn around at any moment. That is why I think a stop at 162 should provide a good risk to reward ratio on this play….
I know Exactly where market is going, but need some confirmation from big boys then I will let you know. but if you do not like. I won’t tell
SWBB
What was your blog url again?
you can see it above – post # 27.
i know a secret…..
if you are good, i will also tell you…..
woo – any thoughts on PCLN?
PCLN is above a LOT of support. I wouldn’t short this yet. I wouldn’t be surprised if this rose to a minimum 369-370.
First short opportunity seems to be under 330.
Remember Richard wanting to short this around $150–hope he is okay with bead business, health issues etc.
It may be a top but not confirmed. It’s had 2 big down days and found support at 20 MA around 334 today. Unless it can break that level and the 325 level, it may actually be a risky buying opportunity here.
I know too. But let me wait till it gets there and then I will tell you after I make huge huge huge profits….
Hey why wait here is my guess…..
My long on RIMM keeps going up and up
I told you way ahead about goign to 50
People who do not know much was questiong me about one drop we had a few days ago, but I let market response to them
Big profit
SWBB
I love your charting, the best i have ever seen!!!!
Crayola and Picasso combined for massive BB profits.
Cmon NFLX, let’s go down the hill.
Dollar is within a penny of it’s day low wow.
I think UUP is in an ABC correction and if A=C then it should hit around $21.80.
I am thinking SPX kisses 1150 today and then market sells off EOD. With gold going even higher market is very nervous.
We hit that earlier in the day. But this opens up another point. Do you think the move in gold is due to weakness in the dollar, the governments buying up gold, inflation worries, or the paper currency devaluation?
Personally I think it’s all of the above.
YES ALL OF THE ABOVE. Market is fleeing to gold which basically is the strongest “currency” in the world at the moment. Only when gold drops will the dollar come back. These idiots really think busting the dollar will bring us out of depression. God help us!
We could see this next week….
Looks like a solid break out on RIM above $50 after coming close to 49.50 which is the 20 ma, it now looks over bought though so I’d wait for a back test of $50 and it has the 50 MA just above the current level.
Welp excellent day for my positions. Citi did indeed break north of the $4 resistance. I expect to see a slow steady rise over the next couple weeks as people speculate on earnings while gov selling pressure is absent.
BIDU , I continue to hold puts, today we broke past support finally and I expect to see a gap down on Monday creating an island top. That should allow it to drop to the bottom of the channel around the $86 area if memory serves (on a different computer than my normal trading one with my charts). I will look to exit my Oct puts next week after a healthy sell off day before a backtest bounce developes. Then I will hold my Nov puts a bit longer looking for the bottom of the channel.
sold cos.un today for a 6% profit in two days.