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SPY getting ready to open right around the 105-105.20 resistance (from the left shoulder top)… if this breaks out we will get another massive rally and a race to the double top:
Intraday Commentary ~ 09/27/2010
– September 27, 2010Posted in: Intraday Commentary, Stock and ETF Models
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Idan,
Looking at CREE, do you see a cup and handle forming from the year 1999 to current?
What are your thoughts?
Idan,
CSCO starting to look good and I think may play catch up.
-small bull flag forming
-small head and shoulders
-higher highs and higher lows
I see this going to gap fill at $23.50 like a magnet once it breaks $22.50 …currently at $22.09
what do you think?
My plan to go short on SPY is at SPY=115.5
As you know I never short anything in last week and I told you that we will get a 1-2% correction and then a powerful rally. People told me why I did not say my exact trade before Friday.But hey guys, sometimes you have to decide very quick and fast. On Thursday as soon as I saw a huge sell of at the end of day I took a huge amount of long. When I already told you that we will have a powerful rally after a mild correction then I have to go long when everyone sells and I have to do that quick and fast.
Now we are close to the top and I expect to see a correction to come soon, but I have to wait for rally. Clearly with the huge rally on Friday market will go higher, so then I will start sell my long and take shorts. My plan as I said above is to go short 20% at SPY 115.5. Then I expect market to go higher to 116.5~117 to increase my short to 60% and bring my average short to 116.5.
Now the question is why I go short at 115.5 if I expect a higher price. The answer is easy. The answer is that I do expect 10% chance that market roll over at 115.5 but 90% chance that goes higher. So I will take 20% short at 115.5 in case my 10% chance happen.
SWBB
what is your target for a pullback?
Look at my new post on FSLR. A powerful analysis from me on FSLR
http://bigboysactionwallstreet.blogspot.com/
SWBB
RIMM is very bullish and will pass the 50 this week, so I am still long.
SWBB
Actually i start shorting GLD last week. I will show you why I went short on GLD and what my plan is. Like alwaysi could not load my chart here.
SWBB
here we are again SPY 115 $ 1.35 two resistance lines.
$ find support @ 1.342 and for a second time try to bust 1.35 so play simple 1.35 = short – breaking = long
I do expect SPY to test 115.34(89) then drop to 114.20 then up to 117.51
I will not play SPY until my targets are reached till then EUR/USD play only
here is $ 01 05 15min charts
http://www.screencast.com/users/prozor7/folders/Default/media/31d77374-cf9b-4e04-afce-5581d27bcc66
PS do not look @ Pivot numbers on the right side of the chart they are not correct (W7 crash and restore from 09.17.2010 without asking) correct ones are on the chart as R (read) or S (green) dot lines
out 75% $ short @ 1.3474 SL for rest 1.3505 where I will go long
sell rest @ 1.3455
long @ 1.3455 SL 1.3443
Any thoughts on AMZN? I shorted exactly at $160 last Friday.
Alot of window dressing going on until Thursday..We could rally into Friday then profit takers may come in..
Last week was a good week for me…Once the market reach 10825 I went short via VXX and TZA and was able to catch the small drop to the low 10600′s (I expected 10500s but bulls were to anxious) and took profits accordingly and got stopped out of my remaining VXX position on friday. Now I am 100% cash since I see little upside left for the time being, perhaps another 1-2%. For me to go long I will like to see a break of the top 11250 or a consolidation pattern. Once can tell this is happening if we get a retrace and buying the dips bulls give support. For now I expect us to go to the 11000s and retest the double top at which point I will short the market via VXX. By the way VXX has become a great gage of the market and I am using it to anticipate moves. If you see the market going up and VXX not moving as much this is an indication that the move is not sustainable. Last friday VXX did not move as much after the initial drop it actually held pretty good around 16.70 while TZA and other bear ETFs were getting hammered. This tells me that we could see a reversal soon….
if $ doesn’t break 1.3444 I’m 75% sure that we are going to break 1.35 (remember SL was 1.3443)
$ could retrace to 1.3464 breaking that level will cancel my setup so SL move to 1.3459 this trade most be profitable
)
sell 75% 1.379 will reload if we retest 1.3464 SL are the same or put Trailing Stop (TS) 10 pips
this is hilarious my Stop Loss was triggered miss target by 0.00002 how guy can make an honest buck here
)
well like I said reload @ 1.3464 SL 1.3474
SPY should hold 114.12
XLF should hold 14.48
funny isn’t it how they seem to know where your stop is, they keep doing it to me also .
The stops are visible to the trading computers. Your stops will always be hit unless they are too far away to bother.
to protect myself I always take 50-75% from the table as soon as my first target was triggered
Not sure what to make of the 50k volume on the SPY 116 puts expiring EOD Friday this week. Most likely insurance purchase by institution however at this toppy level someone may be ready to pull the plug this week.
10 million on puts does not sound like insurance to me. I would imagine that they hate the fact that it is being mentioned on this blog, since knowledge of an expected drop diminishes the amount of that drop.
Can someone give me their take on PLD. Usually moves with the market. The volatility in this stock makes for good trading if timed right.
I hope you guys enjoy my powerful analysis on FSLR. As I told way back price has to go to 150 then drop to 140 or a little below and then rally hard toward 250. Everything is happening exactly as i told you. I clearly showed in you charts that price has to rally to 150. look at my chart at below link and see what a strong analysis I provided. Price should move around 150 for a while before a sharp drop to shake out weak bulls and then explosive rally toward 250. I have plan to load some 2011 call options once price have a sharp drop to shake out weak bulls.
http://bigboysactionwallstreet.blogspot.com/
SWBB
I think you, and a lot of other people, who are making longer-term calls, need to justify it with some fundamentals. A $250 sp would only be justified if Y/Y growth is sustained..
But yes, $250 is possible, but don’t be so lazy and post some financial numbers too.
Technicals is not everything!!
GL.
Not trying to be Sam’s lil bitch here but I’ve been watching this website pretty close for a few weeks and he’s called shit spot on. Give a lil slack here…
Also, went short 15 Nov 124 Spy puts today when the market was at 114.8. I think most of you are looking for higher prices and possibly the market doesnt give it. Will look to short the rest of my cash at 116, if it ever gets there. I smell a big selloff tomorrow.
Ok TV president signed off another 42billion for jobs so watch rally continue.
Hi, Idan or Woo
LVS looks very strong, I still think it will fall down to $30. Any thoughts on this? Thanks
My boss owned 10,000 shares at $1.65.. he sold them for $12 back in Sep ’09..
He must hate himeslf today ..
If you guys could pick one stock to double in a year from now which one would it be and why?
AKAM
AMZN
BIDU
CREE
CRM
NFLX
RAX
or any other stock?
should be a fun exercise!
Did you purposely choose the highest P/E stocks on the Nasdaq.
HAHAHA.
yes because these are the ones that have the potential to double
HAHAHAHA???
Obama signs $30B small business lending bill
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Obama-signs-30B-small-apf-1978241321.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=2&asset&ccode