8.22am
Futures are shoving us back up… we look to be opening around the 113 area… it’ll be a great opportunity to short with a 0.2-0.3% stop and not have too much of a risk. If it opens above 113.20 you can try getting long too.
We have Durable Goods 8:30am and at 10am we have New Home Sales.
About FocalEquity
Sun Tze is one of the founders of FocalEquity.com. After going through multiple transitions, Tze, Charlie Cheng and their new team are bringing new changes and features to the new FocalEquity.com in 2011. Tze is specialized in financial modeling and has a masters degree in Finance.
I’m still looking for a pullback to the 1100 area. If we find support, I think we rally past the 1150 area to about 1170. If 1100 area breaks, look out…Either way look out! Correlation to 1930′s???
As Gordon would say, “Greed is good”… not for long. It’s only a matter of time before we collapse as a society and finally realize what’s truely important in life…
Yeah, right.
Stocks need to learn that finding a nice girl, having kids and buying a subprime home in the
‘burbs is what its all about, not ripping off unsuspecting nerds in panics and rallies. . . .not
killing amateur traders in squeezes.
The fed will continue to debase the dollar and flood money into gap open markets designed
to kill shorts for the next 2 years.
lol
Futures are roaring up looks as if durable goods number will be “better than expected”.
Bingo market is going to roar today and watch new housing starts be “better than expected” also.
As I checked commodity prices yesterday everything seems to be going through the roof. Traders are anticipating the inflation pledge by the FED. Just look at the prices of sugar, cotton, corn, etc, etc and you will see the upward momentum building. How does that relate to stock prices? In my opinion this should affect stock prices in the mid term since higher commodity prices will bite into the earnings of corporations that use them as raw materials. It takes a little time but you will start to see some earning warnings soon.The FED is caught in this game and I am dying to see how we are going to juggle through this…That is why I think the upside in stock prices is limited to 11200-11800 given the momentum we are in right now. We could even not get to the 11000s (although I doubt it). That is why I believe that a weak dollar is bad for the stock market and very soon something has got give.
a weak dollar might be bad for corp. earnings but it will take more weak dollars to buy tiny pieces of these corps. (stocks) therefore a weak dollar/inflation makes all asset classes besides cash go higher.
I agree JROD but the trend is up and the train to paradise is in the “unstopable mode” take it for what it is worth and be long and strong Gold futures broke 1300 and watch the market have a 200+ point day expecially when the housing starts will be “better than expected”.
how about that $ what say you?
here is a link for 01 05min charts:
http://www.screencast.com/users/prozor7/folders/Default/media/f1a62061-7489-41f9-bd92-d26c978169fd
15min chart
Here is a nice chart courtesy of Cobra’s blog showing the perfect backtest of the H&S breakout and if we take out the previous high from Monday then we’ll keep going. Next big focus will be next Friday’s job numbers.
http://lh4.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/TJv_0ql-ZcI/AAAAAAAAIsQ/L2nCY0M75Og/s1600-h/SPXMidTerm%5B2%5D.png
The whole issue with the dollar will do the stock market good at the beginning because it will inflate assets prices and the market will follow the price of oil first but once they realize that the dollar is in a tailspin it will sell off. I’m not sure if the US $ tail spin has already started or not but I would not take anything for granted at this point.
This will also affect bond holder eventually as a bankrupt country may not be able to pay back its debt holders.
Sorry, guys like you have been braying at the moon over Japans QE and multi layered stimulus
for over 20 years. Japan is now the heaviest indebted (far worse than greece) and has the strongest
currency, go figure?
The fed needs to save banks via hyper inflation and strong stock markets, you are insane if you
don’t think that ben is tossing trillions into stocks in complex and covert operations.
Dow 12K by end of year. Gold to 2K and oil at 100 all seem to be fed targets. Oil will spike right
after elections.
Hope you’re right because I’m long gold and oil. This could all happen as you say but the cycle of printing more and more money at some point will either cause deflation or inflation, with inflation being the best thing that could happen. Japan has managed to keep most of its manufacturing within Japan helping them grow, when will the US companies stop exporting jobs out of the US. Look at Japan’s stock market it’s been in a bear market for how long now.
I’m always looking for new ideas so if you see anything different I appreciate your insight.
Watch the market go over 200+ points after housing numbers!
Well numbers were not that great time for market to retrace back down.
Oh wait I almost forgot market doesn’t give a dam if news is bad. Bad news is good! Onward ho!!
200+ here we come!!
wow, the market didn’t even budge on the home sales news and now even higher. The shorts are getting squeezed yet again, man this is crazy stuff.
Yup,something feels awfully wrong here,cant put my finger on it,durable goods expected -1% actual .-1.3%,housing down right terrible but hell we are in a bull market so lets see if we take out 1150 today.
consensus was -1.4%
On bloomberg website it was 1% i will double check
Durable goods were better than expected minus transportation orders were double what expected…
Durable goods orders August -1.3% vs. consensus -1.0%, last +0.7% (revised from +0.3%)
Ex transportation +2.0% vs. consensus +1.0%, last -2.8% (revised from -3.8%)
Thanks 5wavesup
Is everyone stunned as to what’s going on?…is that is why there is silence here on the board?
it’s been quiet a lot here on the boards hasn’t it.
Is there anybody here ?? Is there anybody here who has read my posts for last few days. I told you at least more than 100 times that market has to drop 2% and then follow its rally very powerfull. I told you more than 1000 times that QQQQ should go to 50 before a huge drop happens. Who ever in the worls can ever provide you such a huge correct and powefull forecast. Go and look at my chart about QQQQ, I told you QQQQ has to go to 50, and more imoprtant thing in the worls is that when QQQQ was 49 I told you market has to drop 2% before it go to my target. WOW WOW , Do you guys here and see. Is there any body in the worls who can do that. Huge profit is coming as I went long 100% yesteray.
WOW
SWBB
Good Call
Sam – great call – anyway you look at it !!
I am getting the restistance at 50-50.5
Sam VonZee called for and proclaimed a ‘huge’ drop due to overbought and moon rays from outer space.
Aiden called for a pending 2-4% drop day, any minute now for the past 2 weeks.
CNBC hired 2 short sellers to blog and mislead the gerbils trying to daytrade a news ignorant market.
If this does not justify a further 15% rise fueled by put buying screen gerbils, i don’t know what does!!!!
The habitual gripers here need to note that great bull roaring markets need weak economies, fed participation
and high negative sentiment to gain traction.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FU7_y9ALixk
Look at my below comments on Sept 21. I copies them below. this is why I am very sucssessful and mak tones of money everyday. just look at my post way ahead of everything happened. Who in the world can ever do that???????
================================
sam says:
September 21, 2010 at 1:28 pm
Did you guys enjoy my beautiful cooments the blog http://bigboysactionwallstreet.blogspot.com/
No one in the world knew this except me that what a huge resistance is coming to play. I am always ahead of everyone and that is why I am very suuccefull/
Now i do not say QQQQ will go stright to 50, no there will be correction but small. may be after FOMC meeting the correction will happen and then contiuous of going higher to my resistance . Big boys are doing a very god job, so let’s thanks them
SWBB
Reply
Grady replied:
September 21st, 2010 at 1:44 pm
Wow your a real toy,1st we go up to $50,now we correct after FOMC meeting then up,got all your bases covered,one of these scenarios should hit,or do you have a third
Reply
sam replied:
September 21st, 2010 at 1:50 pm
Look at my chart. It is clear. If you do not understand my chart it is better not to trade at all beacuse it is very clear. I said we will go to QQQQ 50 but not straight up and not today ot in one or two day. We will correct a littl, Maximume correction i do guess is 1 o 2 %, but not more before we move toward 50.
Ok your up target is 50,what is your down target for Q’s for this huge drop? You talking in the next 2 weeks or 2 months
for now i am making tons of money into upside. let the big boys tell us the exact top thn i will say my forecast for down side. For now I am long huge making tons of money. As I told you the target 50 for QQQQ is not exact. I clearly said in my chart that QQQQ will go around 50. It may be 49.5 or 50.5 . I continue holding mythe ge long until i covinced about the top, then i will forecas the downside, but do not think that we will crash all of the suuden, there will be choppy market and a lot of fake action from big boys, but only people like me can ever see these actions and make tons of money
SWBB
Sam, the important news we all lust for is when you and zee will announce the wedding?
Will both your grandmothers that can’t read or write be flower girls?
Will you defend Zee from the water throwing boys at the gym that terrorize his every waking
minute?
Prince – you are talking a lot like another member who got banned here ….
Lets focus on your analysis – we don’t need any bashing of other members here – you are welcome to goto the yahoo boards if you want to continue doing that ….
Let it go please …
Bought a bit more TZA for a daytrade right before 11AM (As pomo ended at 11). 200 shs @ 27.74
stopped out 4 small loss
I was relieved to hear lame duck congress wont pass bush tax cuts until after elections. That’s the one thing that would make me close shorts immediately.
You have to know the market is all screwed up when Tepper comes on and throws some BS out there and the market rallys. Time for Buffett to chime in and make it all better too. What a crock.
He made a lot of sense to me. He was 100% long when financials bottomed, he picked longshots
when they were pennies. He correctly predicted that benny would bankrupt the universe before
allowing any more major regional banks from failing.
Tepper also predicted the weak/horrible economy and strong markets due to QE I & II.
Hate his message all you want but respect his record. Tepper is not Sam/Zee.
I recommend you go read the Jesse Livermore manual on the stock market and use his mantra
as your mantra: “Don’t marry the long side or the short side, stay with the right side”
Why wouldn’t anybody be long the market when it bottomed that’s a no brainer. If all it takes is one person to spew his crap to make a market rally this large we in serious trouble.
sam says:
September 23, 2010 at 8:12 am
I told you that we will get 1-2% correction before we move higher. Here you go./ A huge long opportunity is if SPY drop to 111.5, that is a long best opportunity.
Reply
we never got to 111.5 yesterday so shut the fuck up.. your a farce. a liar . a stooge. Its a shame they let you spew your lies on this board. you must be idans retarded frat brother from duke cause they let you stick around and talk your nonsense all day. Thats what you said fuck head. You were never long for any of this move.
Sam/zee is not worthy of your hatred.
Don’t know who is worse, danny with his boasts of 40% returns on his never ending series of bad & blown
calls or sam von zee and his lack of math skills.
Idan / Woo – maybe Prince needs a warning too …
Dear lord man why all the venom ? I mean true he is talks a lot of crap but you seem like he walked over and kicked you in the shin for no reason.
How is it that oil is up 2% but Suncor is flat to down? This is frustrating, the stock is oversold and due to rally but it’s weak even thought the market is up.
Come on 200+ almost there you can do it!
Time for a retrace0mnet 12:0
Could be, the dollar is close to lows of day let’s see if it dives anymore. She is pretty beat up.
I wonder who the next talking head is going to come on and cheerlead the rally with their insane predictions.
“If QE2 , then it’s good for everything!!”
Ya know, at what point did we abandon fiscal sanity in this country in pursuit of yield as a national policy ?
When they realized the financial picture of the US government is out the window. They know there is NEVER any way to ever repay the multi-trillion deficit.
So then the game plan is something like:
1. Borrow massive $$’s to bail out everyone
2. Print endless $$’s till inflation takes hold
3. Allow hyperinflation to happen (yay stock market went up!)
4. Pay off debt with trillion dollar bills you printed last week and give the finger to the rest of the world
Yup that pretty much sums it up.
yesterday NFLX hit my $164 minimum projection:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NFLX&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p58036972787&a=204535071
Chart made when NFLX was around the $130s.
Now I have to redraft the chart….that part is annoying.
Let’s face it..it’s friday..no real news out on monday and not only is it end of the month but it is end of the quarter..we are going higher into monday/tuesday and then a pullback….but if this rally was the real deal, why are we not over 1148 yet..I think we might be at the close, but still reluctant move with banks still lagging and the same stocks just moving higher..not all
I agree with you. I don’t think this rally is “THE RALLY”
A number of different charts seem to point towards the breakout not being anytime within the next few days. I have a feeling we might not get a decision until a few weeks into October, if even then.
I don’t see the 1160-1170s breaking, and will probably look for shorting opportunities at these 1160-1170 levels if we do break the 1150 area into next week.
here’s where we are today….
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p24404466671&a=184607634
I’m thinking there’s a good chance we get a further rise towards that 1160s area. I guess we’ll wait to see if the 1150 area breaks.
Currently avoiding the SPY/TNA/TZA index trades a bit. Have been sticking with TMV into today. some CRM long.
also watching some FSLR possibilities:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FSLR&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p27002006090&a=195865936
Woo if wem get there how deep do you the retracemnt will be
depends on this wedge:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p15707396877&a=160221582
We’ll probably keep moving sideways into october within that long term wedge.
you can also see the longer term inverse H&S playing out, so even if we test that 1160-1170s level, we may get a rough ride and drop to a little below 1100 and still not pick a specific direction and still stay within both wedge and inverse H&S formations. I’d look at the Oct ’08 as the mirror of what we could see coming up.
US Congress committee approves China sanctions bill
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11407254
A US Congress committee has approved a bill that would place retaliatory trade sanctions on China.
It means the House of Representatives – the lower chamber of Congress – will vote on the bill next week.
The bill would allow the US to impose import duties on countries who have fundamentally undervalued currencies.
To become law, the bill would also need support in the Senate, which is less certain ahead of mid-term Congressional elections due in November. The US accuses China of holding down the value of its currency, the yuan, in order to give its exports an unfair price advantage.
woo, do you have a chart on AMZN?
of course
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AMZN&p=D&yr=2&mn=5&dy=0&id=p96835350693&a=181646175
sorry i’ve been MIA a bit. been really busy lately.
So your target is 174.36?
But we’re hitting yelow line, RSI very high, don’t you think it will correct soon? can it be count 5 waves already?
Sorry, too many questions and i’m just trying to learn. Thank you in advance.
yikes. i guess so. i drafted this a couple months back and haven’t looked at it in much detail. i just cleaned it up a bit now, and the chart has filled in more, so i really should redraft it.
that minimum 174 doesn’t look bad though.
however, at the current moment we’re really overbought, and those two trend lines are above where we are…
I wouldn’t be surprised if we got a retrace back towards the $140s prior to any chance towards a stronger move towards 174.
Midday broad market update http://bidhitter.com/midday-updates/midday-broad-market-update-for-9242010/
I feel that market and big boys are like a small cat in my hand. whatever I say to the small cats (big boys and market) they just do that exactly what I say. Everything. I am the only one in the world who is always right. Huge huge profit. Please look at my post above and just think wjo ever in the world can foreacst everthing way ahead . WOW
SWBB
u still don’t tell people when u buy. u say u will buy at a certain level, when the level never hits, the next day u tell us u had bought and made huge profits. there is still discrepancy between some of the targets that you say and the targets u seem to buy and sell at.
if ur making money it’s great. i don’t know if others are able to profit as much from your analysis. hopefully they are =)
Woo, I am swing trader not day trader. I have a lot of positions that i took days back, for example RIMM, SPY calls that I bought when SPY was 105 (I warned eveyone at that time that we will get powerfull rally. I keep my posions until my target comes. Where is my target. I clearly shows in my chart at my blog.. I also have position in GLD that i bought when GLS was 114 and i sent you emails at that time and told you GLD will make a new high in history. I told all these in advance,. I have position in GOOG calls and when GOOG was at 460 I said this will go to 500 and i am still in it. I do not sell as you can see my foreact was to see QQQQ at 50. I don’t sell my long although I correctly knew that we will get 2% correction after FOMC meeting but i do not sell my long as i knew market will come back, so since i am swing trade i do not sell until my target reach. and i said all these stuff in my charts and posts. i said we will get 2% correction after FOMC and then resume rally. but remener i am swing trader that means i saty in my trade and i do not sell until i know top is in place and as i said i expect to be around QQQQ 50 but may be even 51~52 given the fact that we have strong rally today
SWBB
Sam – I do agree with Woo – that if you post what and when you enter, that may be more helpful for people here as well …..
Your forecasts have been working great and you have made improvements to your style of posting … but this would be a great addition
Anjali, As I said I am swing tarde, so I trade very few but targeting a large profit. Woo and I talk on at leats 10 email back and forth and I told him that GLD will make a new hight. I told him that 150MA on daily is powerful support. since then I am in my GLD calls and today actually I load some GLD December puts. I bought 20 contract 122 december puts at 2.45 each . So now you guys have my tarde. I still have my calls but would sell them next week and will let you know.
SWBB
Sam – I swing trade too …. and so do lots of people on the board … so entries are useful ….
Look forward to more posts with actual trades when you make them …
I told you before the market would go up or down. And look at it now. It’s going up. Was I right! Was I right! I’m a genius. And now I will tell you something about the future. And I am 100% certain of this. I have a direct line to the big boys. You can put this in the bank. Here it comes. Get your pencil and paper ready. The market WILL GO DOWN AFTER IT GOES UP. You heard it here. I’ll be right. I’m certain of it. I’m a genius!!!
YOU DA MAN! I WISH I WAS A WIZARD WITH A POINTY HAT WITH STARS AND MOONS ON IT!! ROTFLMAO SAM IS ENTERTAINMENT YOU HAVE TO ADMIT DAT. I JUST WONDER WHY HE EVEN WASTES HIS TIME HERE SINCE HE MAKES SO MUCH HUGE HUGE HUGE PROFITS?? Inquiring minds want to know!!
From newbie perspective,
Sam if only you are a little bit humble…
Sam Von Zee:
“Market is like a small cat in my hand”.
Luxuriate in that buddy, that’s as close as you’ll get to pussy in this lifetime unless you
can con some cousins into an arranged marriage before your 50.
Woo – Idan – comments from Prince getting worse …. seems like we shall be seeing some porn soon ,,,,
sam ruins this site. i have to wade thru bullshit lies/brags to get to woo or idan. I wonder how many people have flat out left because of his posts. Anjali explain this post (below) by sam yesterday. He said get long on a drop to 111.5. Well spy didn’t come close to 111.5 yesterday so sam was never long and today he comes on talking about huge profits from being long a level that never came close to hitting yesterday. Why do you defend this piece of shit? Sam/zee/angel whatever name your going by these days love him or hate him i want the option to ignore all his posts.
sam says:
September 23, 2010 at 8:12 am
I told you that we will get 1-2% correction before we move higher. Here you go./ A huge long opportunity is if SPY drop to 111.5, that is a long best opportunity.
Reply
Goldman – he never said he was long SPY from yest – pls read the post above ….
Also, I was looking at 111.5 to go long, but I didn’t get it – no one controls the mkt ….
I agree that the posts sometimes confuse on what he made huge profits on – hopefully the fact that he will share actual entries and exits like GLD above will help ….
anjali please put down the pom poms and the stop drinking the coolaid .. he states huge profit is coming since i went 100% long yesterday. ——–
hilarious people actually defend you zam/zee/angel.
Anjali replied:
September 24th, 2010 at 4:44 pm
– he never said he was long SPY from yest – pls read the post above ….
sam says:
September 24, 2010 at 10:47 am
Is there anybody here ?? Is there anybody here who has read my posts for last few days. I told you at least more than 100 times that market has to drop 2% and then follow its rally very powerfull. I told you more than 1000 times that QQQQ should go to 50 before a huge drop happens. Who ever in the worls can ever provide you such a huge correct and powefull forecast. Go and look at my chart about QQQQ, I told you QQQQ has to go to 50, and more imoprtant thing in the worls is that when QQQQ was 49 I told you market has to drop 2% before it go to my target. WOW WOW , Do you guys here and see. Is there any body in the worls who can do that. Huge profit is coming as I went long 100% yesteray.
WOW
SWBB
Alrighty here we go again for another try to break 200+ points as I predicted early this morning let’s see if it breaks it. I bet it does.
BEXP my bakken oil play is breaking out here. 52week high is in the 21′s Currently at 17.8
OPEN. Anybody shorting it?
starting a position in TZA.
looks like financials are trying hard to catch up…picked up some BAC this am since it didn’t jump rigt out of the gate like the others..13.52 is holding it back..hoping for a run to 13.90
There’s my 200+ hit !!
SPY getting ready to break day high
almost.
BRCD getting some traction
http://dragonflycapitalmanagement.blogspot.com/2010/09/rising-three-methods-in-real-life.html
kEEPS tapping on 199.8 twice now
Mkt looks like it will rally into the close …. I am with dsavil here …
Here it comes!! Huff n Puff and blwo down that 200 resistence! Chugga chugga chugga.
Blow even
Alrighty finally did it whew!
Ok here comes SPY breaking day high!!
This train is unstopable.
I’m getting a funny feeling all of a sudden. This 200 pt resistence is mighty strong I am thinking there could be a reversal.
lol. came full circle haha.
WOO, As I said I am swing tarde, so I trade very few but targeting a large profit. Woo and I talk on at leats 10 email back and forth and I told him that GLD will make a new hight. I told him that 150MA on daily is powerful support. since then I am in my GLD calls and today actually I load some GLD December puts. I bought 20 contract 122 december puts at 2.45 each . So now you guys have my tarde. I still have my calls but would sell them next week and will let you know.
NOW you have my trade.
SWBB
ok 20 dec 122 puts at 2.45. see that wasn’t hard at all. Good luck to you in your trade. Now be sure to tell us if you close this trade out.