12:51pm
Take a look at the 5 minute GOOG chart here.. It seems to be forming a triangle formation, after a rally (which is usually bullish). However, if it breaks down the support i think a short is a good way to play, and if it breaks out i definitely think GOOG can rally some more:
11:07am
SPY will be testing the 113.20 level today it seems… It’s a great buying opportunity for a re-test with a stop right below. If we break 113.20 it’s a great shorting opportunity (starting from 112.80 or so)… I think we can really collapse if we fail to hold 113.20.
12:01am
Tomorrow (even though a data light day) and Thursday will be incredibly important days as we set up for either a huge drop or a continuation of a powerful rally to around the 1170 area. With a volatile last 2 hours the market put in a strong Doji candle thus not confirming a complete 2 bar break of the inverse H&S. We still need another big green candle here to confirm it… otherwise bears can pile in here and break down below.
I still think the play here is to buy the 1130 level with a stop right underneath or go short once 1125 breaks down.
Many people always ask me what brokerage/charts I use… So here’s the poll of the day, vote away!
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How far up will gold go? Do you guys agree with INO’s video?
Watch Here
I posted around the 1040 area that I was expecting a run up to this area. My levels on the $SPX were 1130,1150 and 1170. We hit the 1150 area and I picked up some shorts. I will short again if we get to the 1170 area. I think that will be the ultimate top if it goes there. That’s a large channel resistance line. I think deflation is coming and we’ll see a hefty drop soon. October 1st is a large turn date and I expect the drop of the pace to pick up in October.
we talk about $ going up to 1.33 and SPY 115 (almost there yesterday). here is $ 15min chart play what you see
sorry forgot to upload chart
Anyone who follows ADBE have reason not to be a buyer at $26.25 this morning. Seems overblown and the only big software company trading at less than 14 forward PE.
thanks
BIG BOYS are tired but lets hope they can push market higher one more move to resistence so I can buy my puts cheap.
Look at my chart for GOOG. I said when GOOG was at 460 that GOOD will go to 500. Here you go as always
http://bigboysactionwallstreet.blogspot.com/2010/09/go-big-boys-go-one-more-push-higher.html
SWBB
i agree and hope so too…i am adding qid today and will add to my vxx position..thanks sam
what are yout thoughts on oil..its moving but still not a lot with the $$ down so much
XLF just jumped 10 cents to 14.75 for a minute, then fell back down a dime. Pre-markets are interesting to watch sometimes.
short $ @ 1.3415 SL 1.3430
if we could have one more test to 1.3426 and not break it will be nice short confirmation
short again @ 1.343 SL 1.346
sell 50% 1.3403 SL for rest 1.3418
edit SL move to 1.341
Dollar is falling off the chart,look for a possible rally in equities..
Wow Adobe down 21%. A good time to buy for a quick bounce?
tempting isn’t it?
oh, now down, -6.66. Nevermind…that’s a bad sign.
can i get an amen from zee on that one.
It seems more down before bounce.
this is how I see $, remember quiz “price is right” – Cliffhanger?:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uHz2xCV64n8
WOW AAPL, AMZN and gold all at record highs!
Jimbo’s pick from last week Northern Gold up 17% since his nod, up another 6% today !!!!
SAC.V up by only 4% today, he needs to pick up the slack before sam passes him–NOT!
No activity on FocalEquity today much eh. Well I guess it’s still early.
tis… i was gone too but i’m back!
if $ break 1.339 short – target 1.336 (possible 1.333) SL 1.3406
if $ break 1.3426 long – target 1.3496 SL 1.3410
here is a chart
if you short $ move SL 1.3383 to bank some coins
An updated chart is attached. So far the market is behaving as I predicted and we got a pull back right at 10825. Now it is sitting at the 60 minute 20 SMA average and according to my arrows this could be a reversal point to the upside again or we can trade lower. I favored the lower story to the 10500s and that is as low as I see us trading for now. I am short 2000 shares of VXX at an average of 16.87 and 1000 shares of TZA at an average of 28.44. The latter is green and I will close it right now for a small gain. I will place a stop on VXX right at 16.87 for a no risk trade hoping for a larger push down at least to the 17.87 area. I will update this board when to get long again…I think I was the only one that predicted that we would be at these levels when we where at the low 10000s. However I did not profit as I would have liked given the well planned head fake at the last minute….The Euro is going crazy and I keep my prediction of 1.18 by years end. I am waiting on a topping pattern to develop to put a small bet in it…
rimm puts look good here
yea I am still short RIMM at 46.5ish I am looking for PPS below 45 by the end of the week imo
of course what do I know, I bought ADBE yesterday
BP is tanking big
BP? it’s only down 1 %.
1.3%. Yesterday got to 38.99 today low 38.07. With oil inventories up a million barrels in reserve and oil down .77 that pretty much explains it.
well that’s a drop… and maybe a reversal.. but a tank is 5-6.. and a big tank is probably like 10-12%
TRUE
Idan, that master trader and hedger jimbho put on a position at close yesterday that confused the
hell out of me….
Short GLD @125.70 (US ETF only)
Long Dec10 Gold via options on futures
So far, looks like he’s right. Expects the gold etf to show huge outflows and rush into physical bullion,
at worst he breaks even, at best could wipe up, called it zero risk hedge trade of the century
Cut and paste from his site:
Shorted gold etf in new york, GLD
Long Dec2010 1300 gold bullion options on futures
Risk = near zero
Theory: Gold ETF in USA has been hedging its holdings and may be (my opinion only)
first ETF to blow up due to complex structures and CDO/CFD swaps and agreements.
In a perverse result investors will be driven to cash in GLD shares and rush into bullion
and futures/options on futures.
Many have speculated that the GLD ETF is unsound, we may see a test of this speculation
and unwind as the actual price of gold physical soars and hedging operations implode.
BTW, Bernanke would be hard pressed to bail out an ETF, LOL.
His theory seems a bit suspect to me. GLD supposedly (whether actually true or not is another story) buys and stores the physical gold and doesn’t deal in CDO or swaps or any leverage like many leveraged or equity based ETFs.
Its all in the prospectus, its true people have speculated the ETF is unsound, i think if they lie about it in prospectus thats some form of fraud…doubt they are openly committing fraud…
while risk is near zero, so is the upside, seems like a waste of capital to me…
Midday broad market update http://bidhitter.com/midday-updates/midday-broad-market-update-for-9222010/
GS now trading under 150. It is a possible short target with a stop over 150.. it already retested the prior support now resistance today… so it could tank rapidly if market SPY falls under 113.20.
Took off my FAZ calls at SPY 113.2 …
Larry Summers is out!
Hopefully this portends a shake-up of the Administration’s economic policy but that will very much depend on who is appointed to replace him. It is, once again, the economy, stupid, and Larry’s stint as Director of the National Economics Council has given us far too much of the same at a time where we really needed — change.
So, you heard that Rahm is likely leaving the administration And you think you can tie failure to him in an effort to have it leave the administration. That hole Obama inherited was a shovel-ready project for Obama & Gang, and he has been digging furiously. Keep digging. We will fill it over in Nov. and tamp it down in 2012. White House sources say it is possible White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel could leave the White House as early as October. The sources say the bottom line is Emanuel needs to make a decision, and if it is to run, then things will move very quickly.
The rats are leaving the sinking ship…. now Rahm Emanuel….
Something is going down…
Emanuel may quit in October
There’s a good chance White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel will resign in October to focus on running for mayor of Chicago, two people close to Emanuel say.
85.6% of stocks are in the bottom half of today’s range. 63.4% are in the bottom 20%. 45.9% are in the bottom 10%. 1:07ET
1131 held firm to another challenge. Keep hammering at a number and it eventually will weaken and fail. Damn good battle so far for sure!
I’m loving it.. but you gotta be buying the 1130 level until it breaks.
Do you guys want to thank me for my huge correct forecast. yesterday I told you about a moderate corection, sure enough market did what i told you. Today also i posted my GOOG charta nd showed you that it has to go higher.
SWBB
$ reach 1.336 unfortunately I didn’t enjoy the ride
SPY hold 113 (SPX 1130)
if you remember I post 2 days ago SPY 115 down to 113 than up to 121. of-course we could have few bounces on the way to 121 first could be @ 115.96 down to 114.55 up to 121.33
Do you guys think UAUA will follow AMR? I recall AMR was a much better comapny comapre to UAUA, but now what is happening? Who is expert in funamental? I am not I am just technical.
SWBB
I am looking for a corection on FSLR toward 120~130 then a guge rally toward 200. The neckline of a very big H&S is broken but with low volume, so this means stock has to fall hard first to make ahandel then big boys will get tat handel to rally hard toward 200. HUGE profit should be there.
SWBB
AIG is very week, I am looking to see AIG fall very hard in next bear market
SWBB
I agree with you, AIG is weak. I am looking for a entry to buy put. Which point do you think is good entry?
NFLX is almost at my $163 target. Broke north of a trend line
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NFLX&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p58036972787&a=204535071
RIMM as I told you last week is a buy this wekek. Last wek when it was up huge I said a correction will come this begiining week folow with rally, sure enough as always i was 100 RIGHT. i just sold my RIMM long with huge profit.
SWBB
not sure if anybody was able to capitalize on the GOOG $484 break I was talking about watching for:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GOOG&p=D&yr=2&mn=5&dy=0&id=p56586882741&a=181587577
Hey SAM,
Are you still in the bear Camp or Bull Camp. Your analysis is great but also confusing. I cant make out if you are saying this is a pullback and we will rise after this or is this the 3rd wave down. Can you disclose your bias thru December?
Idan
This feels more like controlled consolidation. This could shoot green towards the end of the day. What are your thoughts on the Market . Specially its the end of the quarter next week and they might just keep the market propped up as there is no real bearish news out there to spook people yet. Just little tit bits of info floating around. I mean we dont have any more Lehman, bear Sterns type market mover news. Or do you think something is going to go down in the next month or so.
We may be forming an inv H&S with the low today as the head …
Hey Anjali,
I was thinking the same thing. Except I see a Bullish WV pattern. Either way we will know by EOB today.
i agree…saw that earlier Anjali…..I think we at least test the 1150 area again
Idan,
I saw your GOOG chart and I agree however aren’t you afraid of the 200 day moving average acting as heavy resistance?