1:50pm
SPY with another 1 minute intraday triangle formatoin… you know how it works… play the breakouts from either side with the tightest stop possible.
11:22am
Visa still looks like a good possible short.. with a stop right above the $70 mark..here’s the daily bermuda pattern and the 20 SMA daily right above:
9:55am
Ouch on the bad consumer index… way below 70 consensus.
8:30am
CPI comes in around consensus.. 0.3%, and 0.0% without food and energy (consensus were at 0.3 and 0.1%).
8:02am
As we await consumer sentiment… market is falling below the 103.20 SPY level now… for a potential futures fakeout… we also see the euro losing strength after shooting up into the 1.3150s
6:11am
Market is drifting higher, currently futures are showing an open above the 113.20 SPY inverese H&S level. We did say that it was possible for a fakeout to occur.. we’ll have to see if we breakdown when we retest 113.20 as support or find support and rally from there.
Today is also Yom Kippur eve so volume is going to be incredibly light in the markets… we’ll have to see if we get a lot of swings since the amount of players in the market will be cut in half.
It would appear that “reassuring comments from China’s central bank about its plans to keep monetary policy loose” has spurred prices today across the board.
“The People’s Bank of China warned of mounting bad debt as the country’s structural reforms accelerate, but reaffirmed its appropriately loose monetary policy stance and said it would deploy various fiscal and monetary tools to manage inflationary expectations.”
Stocks and metals are up everywhere it seems on this news … except the Shanghai Composite (SSEC) which is down 0.15% today to add to yesterday’s losses of 1.89% … smelly.”
Tim’s ascending right triangle
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lO4SB-YTHCU
loving it.. exactly my thoughts. Only i’m willing to say that the cash index can rally for 2-3 days and then when it re-tests 1131, if it falls down and breaks down.. then we can have a more severe head fake. …but in any case we’ll see what today gives us.
Today’s data is heavy until 10 am… and quadruple witching
Quadruple Witching
Market Focus »
Consumer Price Index
8:30 AM ET
Daniel Tarullo Speaks
9:30 AM ET
Consumer Sentiment
9:55 AM ET
Put option contracts on SPY that expire today:
629,000 contracts below 113. 25,000 above 113.
541,000 below 112. 113,000 contracts above 112.
So a close above 113 will cause 96% of SPY puts to expire worthless.
A close above 112 will cause 83% of SPY puts to expire worthless.
Those close targets do not mean that the S&P has to close above 1130. SPY usually trades at 4-6 points above the S&P. For example, the S&P closed at 1124.66 yesterday and SPY closed at 113.05 yesterday, that would be just enough to make all those puts worthless. Hmmm. Of course I’m not suggesting that the sellers of those puts would try to manipulate a thinly traded market just to make a buck or two. That would be wrong.
Wall St. to rally on tech”
Followed (usually) by crash and burn.
Remember the euphoria on Alcoa/Intel 2Q results followed by a severe & rapid drop when Bernanke mentioned a sticky period. Today’s rise is mainly on short covering and options expiry. 3Q results will be muted so will not fuel further rises. Economic data over the last 2 months all points to a gradual slowdown in the USA compared to 1Q/2Q.
RIMM giving back a lot of its gain from yesterdays after hours.
i was so close to shorting more yesterday when it was in the 50′s.
I was hoping you wouldn’t get shook out when it popped up in the 50′s.
i might cover here for a small loss, but I think I will hold my short position over the weekend
wow!!
SPY was a high as 113.53 and now 112.92?
what do you guys think this means for today?
i had the SPY as a high of 113.15…. it never crossed 113.20 (only in futures…) which means that we could have gotten a futures fakeout.. only to fall back down.. there COULD be a massive drop soon… i wouldn’t mind shorting with a tight stop above 113.20.
Because the consumer sentiment is “worse than expected” and that is what will run the markets today look for a drop. The SPX hit 1131.47 as I was guessing 1135 and now watch a drop to intice whatever bears are still alive.
VOLATILITY
Below 112.50 is bearish, if 112 breaks today then 111.5 is next. Although today being OPEX anything could happen.
Idan, would you mind giving me your thoughts on SBX. Have owned it since $7.05. Fundamentally, on a long term basis, this is a screaming buy. It is currently priced at about 50% of book value, so I’m a believer based on fundamentals. Your take on the technicals would be appreciated.
It’s not very liquid so it’s tough to really give you a great analysis but currently it hasn’t fully confirmed a bottom but it hasn’t necessarily stopped retracing either.
I think you stay long.. you will get resistance at 50SMA daily and 8.4-8.5 but the consolidation over the last few days might allow for a nice shove higher.. i say, stay long, don’t let it fall under 7.4
SPY dividend = $0.60213 (which is why it appears to be running lower today)
Did anyone follow me into SCO last Friday afternoon when I said to buy under 14.40? Up over 6% so far this week.
One Final Word Before I Leave
Friday, September 17, 2010 at 10:47 am
Those consumer sentiment numbers were dreadful, yet here we are unch. There is something to be said about a market that refuses to go down. Now, we can complain all we want about manipulation and how “stupid” the market is. But, in reality, markets are not stupid, people are. I’ve been 100% wrong with my recent sales. I’ve been 100% wrong with my VXX “hedge.” It’s too early to say if I am wrong on TZA, since it is hovering near my cost basis. The big lesson in all of this is: there is no lesson.
Previous market pullbacks were very sharp, which would have allowed my current strategy to pay off very handsomely. Unfortunately, the market has not cooperated with my incessant demand. So the fuck what? I still have big gains and lots of skin in the game. It’s not like the market is ending soon and I will not have a chance to recapture my former glory.
Go with what you know and don’t be stupid about allocations. If there is one thing that has saved me, over and over again, it’s allocations. Leg into positions slowly and never overweight one sector or stock more than 20%.
Breadth is somewhat mixed today, with weakness in commodity names and strength in tech. The market could go either way. If I was to bet against anything, it would be a big move in any direction.
More of the same, ho hum, ho hum.
http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2010/09/17/one-final-word-before-i-leave/
I need a new Jaguar XJL so bad!! TTM
if spy cannot break 112.70-112.75 and close above it can fall very hard to 112 or 111.5
Spy looks like it can go lower, but so does TZA – whats up with that???
Anjali,
Do you think todays top is in?
Mkt todays looks like it … but we may still have one more spike left – this sideways action makes me think bull flag … mkt seems to keep fighting back …. we cannot fight it so go with the trend with tight stops or raise cash (like I am doing)
Thanks Anjali.
Walt is back to “sell into all strength”. Either a correction of the rally from SPX 1039 has started or mega wave 3 down has started. We now go back to 1090-1095 at a minimum in case of the correction possibility or much, much, much lower in case of mega wave 3 down. For obvious reasons extreme caution is warranted.”
We Are Repeating The 1930′s Crash
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=krAo0F948RA
If this was any other day I think we would be much lower than this but OPEX is different.
I agree
Pulled the trigger on BGZ with a small 200 position. may go down a little more but I can take some pain. this market can shoot higher from here but my guess is Sept/OCt generally bearish months. If this is Sideways action then again like Anjali said there should be a pull back next week at least a little bit.
Indus – I have a position in FAZ … however I am keeping tight stops ….
….we may still have one more spike left – this sideways action makes me think bull flag … mkt seems to keep fighting back …. we cannot fight it so go with the trend with tight stops or raise cash (like I am doing)
Thanks for the headsup Anjali . I just dipped my toe so far I know that market is above 200 sma. So the next move could be explosive but I have a 50 cent stop and I am willing to loose that much. I do see at least a pullback before the next leg up if there is a leg up that is.
Idan,
Closed my Sept GOOG poistion
I still think it will pop to $494 to $508 soon as I see a bullish flag forming.
Right now its showing a very nice consolidation
Once it breaks $484 it should be at those levels in no time
your thoughts?
If the SPY breaks 113.20 i see GOOG hitting 494 too… but right now we’re at a SUCH fragile time.. and i rather watch than play. Look at focalequity, it only gets 60-100 posts a day now a days, not because there aren’t a lot of people on the site but because people are afraid to trade here.. they want to wait and see first.
I don’t think SPY has to be around 113.20 for GOOG to get to the high 490′s.
It has lagged so much behind all techs lately that I think it can get there just on the catch up effect
Bull Flag really looks good and nothing is going to pause it until it hits $494
I am purely playing the technicals on this one
Good luck!…your comments and suggestions have always been appreciated.
I miss your daily youtube reviews and your intraday videos!
Companies hoarding cash means companies do not have adequate confidence in investing. More importantly Mish Shedlock, not so long ago, showed the correlation of higher company cash loads with higher company debt loads. Corporates have gone to the debt markets to “cash up” thanks to the historically low cost of borrowing. Pushing the line that companies are well cashed up only tells one side of the story. The reason companies look to book ongoing liquidity is that they fear the worst. When the credit crisis initially hit many companies immediately drew down their lines of credit for fear their creditors would quickly shut the door on them. Hoarding cash has never been a growth story.”
Midday broad market update http://bidhitter.com/midday-updates/midday-broad-market-update-for-9172010/
Fake breakout on the 5 min of the symmetrical triangle, hoping 112.25 gives next.
Have a great weekend guys…GO PATS..How about them Jets last week all that trash talk and Ray Lewis did his talking on the field..Pat’s and Jets…I like my pats this week and they don’t trash talk they do their talking on the field..!!!!
RIMM will be a buy next week. I am looking for a entry to drive it to 50
SPY will catch up eventually to S&P
Options are cheap so strangle worth it
FUQI did pull back as I told you
Neckline of an important invese H&S was broken
Market is bullish while needs pull back, but big boys are hesitating
FOMC next week is a key to drive this market
In any case SWBB
Sam,
What is your prediction for next week?
Yeah – it almost reached my prediction of 51 AH but not otherwise
RIMM is falling apart
Still on the sidelines with 100% cash. Watching the tape, my sense is that there is one more push higher early next week before it reverses.
I think we are getting close to SPX breaking down. Euro was strong the last few days and now it has reversed direction
Thoughts on DE. Hitting upper bband, negative divergence on MACD and RSI. Idan/Woo? Appreciate any thoughts.
thanks
Wage and salary growth slipped to near zero year-over-year in August through mid-September. Estimates are based on real-time income tax withholding data. Meanwhile, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), will likely report positive August wage and salary growth in their Personal Income report released later this month. “The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) frequently overestimates or underestimates wages and salaries until actual payroll data is available usually four- to six-months in arrears,” said Madeline Schnapp, Director of MacroEconomic Research for TrimTabs. In a research note, TrimTabs reported its real-time wage and salary estimates have been much closer to the BEA’s final revisions, four months to two years after the preliminary BEA release. For example, in January 2009, TrimTabs real-time data showed that growth in wages and salaries plummeted 4.9% year-over-year, while a month later the BEA initially reported a January decline of only 2.4% year-over-year. Two years later, the BEA revised their estimate to a 4.2% year-over-year decline, much closer to TrimTabs’ original estimate. “If the BEA inaccurately reports wages and salaries, policy makers may apply the wrong remedy in a misguided attempt to help the economy,” cautioned Schnapp. In another example of the differences between the two data sets, TrimTabs noted that BEA wages and salaries peaked at $6.6 billion in March 2008, fell $390 billion, or 5.9%, reaching a trough in March 2009. Meanwhile, TrimTabs’ estimated that wages and salaries derived from withholding taxes peaked in April 2008, fell $424 billion, or 6.4%, reaching a trough September 2009, a full six months later.
TrimTabs cautions that the economy is a long way from becoming healthy. Thirty-three months into this recession, U.S. economic growth is heading lower; wages and salaries are still 4% lower than they were in 2008, consumer credit is down 6.4%, job growth is weak, consumption is anemic putting downward pressure on final demand.
“We can honestly say there is no danger of a double-dip recession,” commented Schnapp, “that’s because, in our view, we never exited the original recession in the first place.
TRUE ROO
US household savings and debt, at a glance
Friday, September 17, 2010; 4:49 PM
– U.S. household wealth declined this spring for the first time since early 2009 as stock portfolios shrank. Americans’ total net worth fell $1.5 trillion to $53.5 trillion in the April-June quarter, the Federal Reserve said Friday.
The Fed’s report, known as the Flow of Funds, provides a broad picture of the average household’s savings and debts:
$455,173: Average U.S. household net worth. It includes homes, stocks, retirement accounts and other assets.
Some of the major components are:
$145,641: Average home value.
$99,149: Average retirement account.
$92,090: Average investments in stocks and mutual funds.
$52,993: Average amount in savings and certificates of deposit.
The value of these investments are offset by debts:
$114,434: Average household debt, including mortgages, credit cards, and student loans.
$201,326: Average mortgage. (It exceeds average debt because not every household has a mortgage.)
$20,861: Average credit card, auto loan and other consumer debt.
Sources: Federal Reserve and Census Bureau.
Test 1107 by Tuesday,big move Monday
It’s interesting to note the selling volume has been lighter lately and the buying volume, while not strong, is stronger than the selling pressure. Investor sentiment is negative… and institutional investors are going to be looking to invest somewhere before year end to try to put some gains on paper. Combine this with three positive weeks on the S&P… perhaps we’ll be surprised with an up market!
Statistics on September Triple Witching show down market lower in following weak 80% probability.