Idan
3:08pm
JPM daily yesterday tested that $41 level, which we talked about like half a year ago.. well now it’s resistance, a break of that level again and I’m definintely long this stock… it makes sense for it to move higher, the chart was broken up until now, but above $41 it’s ready to rally:
1:37pm
I’m holding on to my Long GLD still here… i’m going to start moving the stops up and send them to profitability. I got stopped out of Visa short with about a 3% gain, but focusing on gold daily chart you can see that we are breaking resistance of the rising wedge into new highs. I expect this bubble like behavior to continue only for a few days or maybe 1-2 weeks, before it starts breaking down but until then keep long baby, keep long:
1:28pm
If the SPY wants to hold for the day and not become a reversal day it will need to hold current levels at 112.70-112.78, which is prior resistance (from yesterday). If it falls through my guess is we go lower for the rest of the day.
Tze
11:50 AM
Poll time!
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11:31 AM
My TZA got stopped out at $29.40 for a tiny loss and just got into TMF (Direxion 30-year treasury bull 3x) at $46.78. The 30-year treasury yield rose recently, pushing down the price but I think this price correction is about to be over. Yield should continue to go down as the recent economic optimism could be short-lived. We saw from Europe that Germany missed its growth forecast by alot.
Tze
10:49 AM
Woo was absolutely right when he said this morning,
but if we can get one more retest of the $54 point (GDX), then we will probably see a significant breakout to the north side.
We now gained almost 3% on the GDX long. Follow our trades on the FEED. Just sign in and click on FEED in your profile box. Idan, Woo and I are tweeting there constantly. We would love to see you there. You can find me at zSun83, Idan at u05ikoren and Woo at woo. Woo and I are focusing exclusively on ETFs with emphasis on leveraged ETF trading.
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Poll of the day
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8:38am
Retail sales come out slightly better than expected, but within consensus range. It propped up the market just a slight before going back down.
7:15am
Euro taking a dive against the dollar after it hit 1.29, may signal a potential reversal in the markets, lets see if this strong push lower holds. The dollar will need to break 1.275 before we can assume a potential reversal of pattern.
6:43am
Yesterday we got our hit on the dow jones triangle early in the morning, that was my shorting signal as we have to assume that a triangle formation holds until it doesn’t hold anymore. Resistance in the triangle formation below (dow jones daily) is a great place to short, and support is a great place to go long. As soon as one of them breaks you reverse the trade. I still believe we are close enough to the triangle resistance to try and short it, as long as you have a stop right above it. Here’s the chart:
Here’s the data we have today, the most important of which is retail sales at 8:30:
ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
7:45 AM ET
Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
it is clear that big boys want to push this market to 1130, the questions is if 1130 is where we should load shorts. I took a few long yesterday at 1117 just to drop at 1127 and go short from there with stop at 1147, so that means I am risking just 10 points if everything goes with my plan.
SWBB
Good Call Sam. Do you have any Targets in minds?
Imagine that!! Better than expected ROTFLMAO.
lols
U.S. Aug. retail sales up 0.4% Economists had expected a 0.4% increase. Excluding autos, gas, and building materials, retail sales rose 0.6% in August, the most since March.
Good morning traders it looks like the Jets couldn’t cash the check that Rex Ryan wrote..Ray Lewis did his talking on the field..
UNG daily could be still in a process of bottoming. Yesterday it retested the former support (i circled in white), and it will still have to break out of $6.80 before I feel safe buying it… if it breaks out it will be on my buy list. Some people might want to wait for the break out and the retest first (as support) and then put support below.
Thanks Idan. I will keep an eye on this too and post on feed when/if I buy.
Rick Santelli just announced the fed repurchasing is expected to just from 18bil to 27bil…this is pomo, right?
Although the market has not broken the wedge yet I am convinced that it will break it to the upside. Therefore rather than wait for an entry point after that, I will take the risk of doing it now. I bought 1000 TNA this morning at 41.84. My stop is a loose stop at 39.75 so I am going to let this one breathe for a little while. We will see high 50s in TNA soon. Attached is the updated chart
Yeah i wouldn’t buy until it actually breaks out.. there definitely is momentum for a breakout but i’d like to see one first before i shift to buying the market.
Sideways to maybe up a bit today..Take a look at SMH you all know i use this as a market indicator.The SMH started out weak but has climbed into the green and the dollar is tanking so i see a green ending..Maybe
Bought some IMG.TO Nov 18 calls, the stock looks oversold and with seasonality being on the side of gold this should be a good entry point.
Sorry Nov 19 calls.
Gold bullion new all-time high.
HUI:GLD ratio +2.09%
HUI +3.86%
XAU +2.98%
GDX +3.75%
GDXJ +3.50%
… spells on-going bull market and prosperity in the gold mining business.”
113.20 on the SPY will be a very important triple top test. Options expiration week more interesting Thin volume.
The triple top is a reversal pattern made up of three equal highs followed by a break below support. In contrast to the triple bottom, triple tops usually form over a shorter time frame and typically range from 3 to 6 months.
good point.
spy likes these 3 tops then fall.
something tells me it’s not going to go down this time though.
Another possibility is an unconfirmed inverse H&S. Confirmation either way is key here.
this market is a riot.
Busy at work but just checking in. The following link also showed triple top, similar to Walt. Still short here, hoping, but not a large position (yet).
http://www.stocktiming.com/Tuesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
Copied and re-posted from another site
Tagged 113.25 resist area, but double spinning top, Supp 111.76, 111.20 then 110.12, Resist 114.55
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:introduction_to_candlesticks
Market is putting a bullish candle above the triangle. I expect upward action to reach 10600s today and then by end of day or early tomorrow retrace to retest the triangle. We might get a huge push up on tuesday to the 10800s. This is a good short term sell to reentry on a pushback since we will be really overbought by then. Attached is the action how I see it in the next days…
Bought some more SPY Oct 110 puts, averaged down in price. Neg div on SPY 5 min. I’ll sell all puts if we break above 113.50. i believe we’ll see some kind of a sell of soon.
Midday broad market update http://bidhitter.com/observations/midday-broad-market-update-for-9142010/
testing the trend line.
I believe that’s a neg divergence on the RSI and it looks like MACD wants to put in a lower peak, looks bearish to me.
is there anybody who can say why I am always right and very sucessful trader? WOW., I told you 1127 I will sell my long and i did with a huge profit. Very good. Now I hate to go short while market is very bullish, so I did not take short at 1127, as there is 50% chance we go to 1135. If by 50% we go to 1135 that is where I will load a sizable shorts.
YesterdayI asked how I can load my chart, but nobody told me, otherwisw you would have seen exactly what happend today in my yesterday chart.
Woo, do you remember we had email discution a few weeks back anddI told you gold will make a new high. See
SWBB
I’ve been riding GDX for a while now. Unloaded some today near the highs at a trend line hit. GLD is also hitting a bit of resistance. September is a great month for gold and the technicals are looking good too.
I’ll be looking for more opportunities to load gold, but would like to see new highs now.
good. I also would like to hold my gold until end of this moneth, then should get a very large drop on gold and i am planning to go short very heavy. i am calculating price target for top and then after drop and will let you know. for now I would say 129 is the top for GLD, but i need to calculate more.
SWBB
that’s really interesting because i actually have a top around 130 haha. i still have a half position. will load more at new highs or on a stronger drop.
IMO, being long GLD/GDX no longer (especially after today’s jump) represents a good risk/reward trade. Both are wedging and diverging in a bearish manner on the weekly as well as the daily chart. Of course, they may break out from the wedge to the upside, but the setup is a low probability scenario. I really don’t see the attraction.
That’s why I unloaded half today and am waiting for new highs or a stronger pullback to load more to my position.
I agree that there is still a danger of a retrace happening. September is generally a great month for gold and we’re hitting new highs. Gold is going to also be one of the more stable commodities out there in the market when people are unsure of overall market direction long term.
New bullish chart pattern, called the rising wedgie OR back test!
hahaha
haha. very nicely done walt. lol
At last, somebody has captured in picture form my trading for the past year and half.
Who says we break the inverse H&S neckline on the SPY at 113.20, and who says we fail?
Fall to test 1110, at least.
there’s a lot of resistance in this area on a variety of sectors. going to require something bigger to break the whole market north of these tops.
Something unnerving about the markets today. The 2 standout protagonists have been the Dollar and precious metals. The Dollar took a swan dive and all precious metals are up over 2% with gold marking an all-time high. The stock market is up too. Therefore one could assume that the goodish retail numbers have further soothed concerns about the U.S. economy and, as a result, all the hot plays are back in town. In other words get your Dollars and put them to work. However base metal prices are rather timid today. Copper, for example, is down 0.17% as I write. In any other currency apart U.S. Dollars it would be down considerably more. This doesn’t quite add up. In fact 3 of the 5 base metals are down in U.S. Dollars. Are we witnessing happy markets or are we witnessing a mild run on the Dollar? I mustn’t forget that the 2yr to 30 yr Treasury prices are all up at the same time. All very Interesting and unnerving at the same time.
By the way, stocks have attempted to break thru the INDU downtrend-line from the April highs for the second time in 2 days. They have almost succeeded, depending on how thick your pencil is. However they have also run into my second target at SPX 1127-1128. This level appears to have halted progress for the moment at least. Let’s see if we can get a reversal from this level.”
not to mention the ever dropping vxx…they mentioned today that gold is up on QE2 speculation…
Monday’s gap up (SPY) is going to look awfully tempting as economic data scheduled for the rest of the week rolls out — and a fall back under the 200 DMA will look terrible on the daily charts, much like the failed mid-June and early August rally attempts. Is that a triple top forming ? …
but the question is…will they really let terrible news come out…i mean…come on…they allowed 7-9 states phone in an estimate of unemployment claims last week…I just don’t see them letting anything out too negative until after the election
selling my SCRL here at 69.7
@#%&*….Took Tze’s TMF trade. Placed order for 1K shares….thought I had gotten all..but realized after it moved nicely, that I only got 319 shares. Now look at it. Oh well….at least my SBX keeps on moving in the right direction. Long 4K shares since $7.05.
you won’t believe how many times that happens to me.. it’s horrible.
I was trying to view today’s intraday commentary on my Android phone. It does not work. That would be a nice feature to have
Couple of pretty red bars on the SPY 5 min
I think this market is ready for a pause, I feel the train putting its brakes on to slow down and then reverse.
Last 15 mins looks bearish to me and look at woo’s SPY 60 min chart above, neg divergence all over the place.
Feds Spent $800,000 of Economic Stimulus on African Genital-Washing Program
http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/75198
I’m so glad I pay taxes!
thanks, this country is so nuts – help us Lord
so..japan finally intervened to lower the yen…$$$ up tomorrow?
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=atkGUgCEJ1PU&pos=2