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Visa continues to plunge after it broke $70, which was my call to short the stock as it’s chart had a bermuda triangle (bearish pennant formation). While the triangle calls for another 5 points of a decline, i think $62.50-$63.20 is likely to be strong support for Visa. These are little support targets around the 61.8% retracement of Visa’s whole rally. I’m still short..with a stop at 67.50, but will look to take 80% off at $63.20
12:08pm
AAPL today finally breaking out of it’s horizontal channel formation, with a break of $265-267 resistance, it could be ready to break to new highs. I think it’s a buy as long as it remains above 265.
12:05pm
Does anybody have any thoughts on oil or the USO? The USO gapped up to above $34… but it is forming a topping candle right now. The way i would trade it is the following way. If it falls under $34, go ahead and short and keep a stop right above it (hopefully closes below it). If it stays above, you can actually try buying it at the end of the day.
11:24am
We have hit the dow jones resistance about 20 minutes ago at around 10570, which was the triangle resistance i had a picture of. So far the sell off from that level has been unimpressive but if we do fall below 10530 we could have a reversal day… i wouldn’t mind taking a short here with a stop in the 10600 level… it’s tight and the reward is potentially huge.
9:00am
Your thoughts – Will the Inverse H&S on the SPY complete itself and break out of the 113.20 level? Yes, or No and Why?
8:56am
FocalEquity has it’s own News Feed – Just like facebook only for traders. Make sure to post Your Trades, your thoughts and your predictions on the markets and any factor that could affect the markets like how will we vote congress this year? http://www.focalequity.com/social-%E2%80%93-activity/
6:55am
Futures are jumping up quite a bit here… almost 1%. This means that we are going to open really close to the dow jones triangle resistance. My guess is that it will hold the first time it hits it.. look at the daily chart below:
12:01am
This week is going to be an incredibly important week. So therefore, i went ahead and asked you the most important question. Where do we go this week? Post your technical analysis charts below in the comments section to answer the Poll of the day!
After seeing the data from China this weekend, I’m going to say we won’t get any meaningful pull back this week. I think we’re going to see the right shoulder of the inverse head and shoulders play out this week with a break of the 1130 area. No doubt.
the futures are up…therefore i think we gap up to surpass last weeks high and then slowly sell off, because of opex, and close the week down big…maybe tag the 1080′s, creating a massive engulfing on the weekly….from there, this should be watch out below on the weekly….just cant understand why with the massive H and S on the weekly and monthly that this will continue up other than to trap “johnny come lately’s ” to the party.
JMO
Todays economic data include the following:
4-Week Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Treasury Budget
2:00 PM ET
Some in the futures market are looking at 1120 as a potential near term top, but that is 1120 in the Dec soon to be front month future, not the cash. Closer to 1125 cash.
http://mrtopstep.com/2010/09/10/topnotch-into-the-weekend/
I continue to be in 100% cash waiting for a high probability short opportunity. I am expecting SPX to break 1130 in the next few days. Holding my powder dry.
Market looks pumped to bust the upper resistance line of the wedge. I want to see 2 60 minutes candles above this line for me to think about going long. If we get these two candles it is very typical that trading will backtest the now support line and that will be the time to go long. Now I doubt that we will break this line this easy and we might get a sell off after we hit it. Specially with critical data on deck for the week. If we do break this line the stage is set for 11000s again as I have posted several times before……I have 500 shares of VXX (that I think I will maintain regardless of upward direction) to hedge my soon to be longs if we do break. I will post later if we do get a break….
What’s your number on the dow for the resistance of the triangle today?
The Descending triangle number is around 10550-10575. We barely touched the line and retraced. I do not think the market will trade higher than that today. Specially with the data coming up this week. This will be a good moment to day trade short for a while with tight stops…Take a look
You guys tell me how many times I said last week on Thursday and Friday that big boys want tp push higher. You tell me. I rememebr at leatst I aid that more than several times if not housends. You guys tell me that I told you several times as I am not suppsed to say “I told you”
Big boys are very clear was very obvious that market has to jump higher exactly as I told you. Now we need to watch out, the more we go higher withouut correction the more hard drop we will get, so I am looking at my singnals very carefully to see whereI should load shorts, of course I will follow big boys as a indicator
SWBB
Where do you feel safer shorting?
idan, I feel SPY 113 is good point with low risk to go short with stop at 117.5
SWBB
Good call. I have been noticing on the blog, your calls are amazing.
How are you guys think america votes congress?? Does majority stay democrat or do we shift to republican majority?
We shift to Republican..
We are tired of the Bla Bla Bla It wasn’t me Pres. and bla bla bla blame it on someone else
and the Bla bla Bla Socialist Hitler .. Thank you
Idan,
Done my homework and every congressional election the markets have held up or ended up better between the months of September to election time in November
Eveyone is anticipating for markets to drop due to the Sept-Oct effect but politics play a big role this time of the year.
A correction or a drop will not happen at these levels
They will stay the same within a tight range so for all you thinking that markets are going to turn downwards in the next month or so, it won’t happen
Dollar tanking bigtime look for big up day. Keeping Bush tax cuts for at least average earners is a big plus and why market is going to soar. Investors like this. Look for SPX to hit 1120 possibly today if not tomorrow. The train to paradise is under full steam ahead as the conductor(TV president) has big sheet eating grin on his face saying to himself life is good.
Looks like the inv H&S from last week will be reaching its tgt of 112.3- 112.5 SPY …
I mentioned that I was looking for 1 more push up … and looks like we will get there this week …. r levels I was looking at 1115, 1120 and 1130 …. I don’t think we break 1130 on the first hit, we should get a small pullback 50-61.8 …. if the pullback is smaller ie 38%, then we will be going higher …
Too many bears trying to short this and talk of the Hindenburg means we will not go down right away – more pain in store for the bears ….. that being said, I think we may close the week around the flat line from last week ….
One thing to be said is that the sharper the pullback the more the chances that we may not break through ….
At this point, looks like we tag the resistance level and then see a pullback …. after that is not sure, will need to see the action to be sure …
Good Call Anjali.
idan,
good morning…are you still holding V for the drop??
lets like we popped at the open, if not we sell off slowly, it’ll create or at least start to create a bearish candle, add to last weeks, we may have a potential of an engulfing developing.
Listen I shorted it at 69+.. i’m just moving the stop with it. I moved it down to 68.5, now i’m moving it down to 67.50… will keep it going.
Idan,
GOOG at point of resistance looking to break $480 to shoot upwards.
At what point do you jump in?
Well hit 1120 mighty easy. The 1130 will be hit today or tomorrow.
I think so too ….
Rest of the day may be a non event with a flat or slight down move to form a bull flag …
Very possible indeed. The China news put the punch in the market at open let’s see if it continues for more push or pulls back.
September looks to be totally opposite of being worst month in markets. I will not be surprised at all it it ends up being the best month.
I am currently riding 500 shares of VXX bought at 18.71 (and now red). However I am not concerned about this since I considered it cheap at the moment. For a day trade only purpose I am buying right now 1000 more shares of VXX @17.90. I am thinking that we will see some upside to VXX today and the low for the day maybe in….We will see.. I am placing a stop for this 1000 + 500 VXX at 17.54.I am waiting on a confirmation of the upside trend once we break out of the wedge. I need to see strong bull candles above it by 11:30 AM today.
Market looks strong and I am tightening my VXX position for a stop around 17.75 (Low of the day so far) in case of another attempt to break the wedge. If I get stopped out I will be loosing around $700 dollars on this trade. I will observe the action for the remaining of the day and I see a decent retrace on VXX I will take some profit from my 1000 shares (17.90 entry price). For the remaining of the week I will wait and see if the market gives me an opportunity to go long. As I said before the break of the wedge will make us see 11000s again at least 11200s and perhaps 11800 by year end (which I projected long time ago). Now these are the steps to trade and key levels for the long story:
1.- Break Wedge (step 1) with two 60 minute candle
2.- After we break the wedge we might get a pull back and this is your buying opportunity.
3.- Level 1 is at 10825-10850. We should have resistance around this level and you could sell here to rebuy on a pull back
4.- Level 2 is at 11025-11050. We could see some resistance here
5.- Key Level 3 is double top area at 11225-11250 We will see a lot of action around this level. A break we will another 600 pts up to 11800s (I will short my momma at these levels if she had a ticker symbol MOM).
The updated wedge is below
I jumped on TZA @ 29.60 500 shares.
Thats not the train to paradise.
It sure is when the market reverses and going short to make a bunch of cash.
Idan,
Daily chart on GOOG looks great….higher highs and lower lows…this thing looks like it’s going to the next resistance at $495
thoughts?
Yup i mean you see it open right above 480… that was a perfect entry, it retested 480 right in the first 10 minutes of trading and then rallied… i think it’s a buy but the dow jones might have topped today based on the triangle i posted.. that’s my only problem with buying a lot here.. i’d purchase a small position at best.
Will hold my Oct SPY puts and add Nov puts here on a reversal, but not yet. Max I see SPX hitting 1125 today, if we hit 1130 then I’ll be going 80% short.
Are you expecting any false breakout on SPX ?
A false breakout happens when after the break out the backtest fails and goes through the support (previously resistance) so it’s way too soon to consider that right now.
Idan, or Woo
Jrod expacted strong move up. Mind the gap and dsavill Buy short or hold put
Please let us know your opinion about marlket movement
I think you stay short ntil the triangle breaks to the upside.. we hit the top of it today at the high. If it breaks to the upside you go long.
I agree. I still haven’t added to my puts but watching closely because we could still close at or around the highs.
SPY on the daily already has a reveral candle…. it looks like we had a PERFECT hit of the triangle only to fall back down. The dow jones is already below the 10530 mark… so it’s looking more and more bearish now. We will need to close below these levels to make sure we get some more downside into tomorrow.
I agree with these levels but it seems everyone is watching these levels and are thinking the same thing.
The same thing was going on and everyone was saying 1040 to be broken and heading to the downside and look whats happened
In order for the market to go higher “they” will want to squeeze the shorts around 113.20 or higher
“they” want the market higher due to the elections coming up
Idan, Thanks! Ypur short has a great sucessful rate.
Wedge holding nicely…However VXX not following the move down as much…Might be a warning for shorts. I am further tightening my VXX shorts to 17.85 (If I get stopped out I will have lost around Mid $500 on this trade.
All of the following companies are reporting this week. In my opinion, their earnings will help keep the market higher. Even RIMM, its been so battered that a hint of good news will propel the stock
In my humble opinion, I wouldn’t go short this week
Best Buy (NYSE: BBY)
Pall (NYSE: PLL)
FedEx (NYSE: FDX)
Oracle (Nasdaq: ORCL)
Herman Miller (Nasdaq: MLHR)
Pier 1 Imports (NYSE: PIR)
Research In Motion (Nasdaq: RIMM)
Look at my forecast cahrt for this market. Big boys are doing a great job and moving this market exactly as I told last week. Huge profit was booked.
SWBB
I am trying to load my chart, why is not showing? I can browse my file, but where isupload button?
The major trend-line running from the April high on the INDU and then down thru the August high repulsed today’s rally in the 10560-10570 area. The adjective “major” is suitable in this instance as this is the trend-line that the majority of market participants around the globe would have their eye on. The other potential stopper for the rally was the near horizontal trendline on the SPX starting at the 1131 high and then thru 1129. For it to intersect today SPX would need to print 1127-1128.
The question now is will today’s intraday decline to SPX 1116-1117, which incidentally has found support for both the INDU and SPX on their uptrend-lines stemming from the recent lows near SPX 1039, be a healthy pullback fit for more long buying or do today’s highs mark the end of the party?
Some important gaps have been closed. Indices involved have been SPX, DAX & HSI. Possibly COMPQ and RUT as well. VIX has reclaimed 95% of its daily losses with the SPX currently still up 0.75%. Treasuries likewise are nearly square with the card after earlier being below par on price and offering higher yields. By the way, can equities continue to the moon whilst yields continue to sink? I don’t know. Maybe only Ben knows. God bless Ben.
With all the “not too hot, not too cold but just right news” out of China it’s hard to paint a nasty picture for the markets just now. However if INDU 10560-10570 and/or SPX 1128 remain undefeated then we can obviously count this rally as completed. If so extreme caution is warranted for a market fall far more destructive than your normal garden variety decline.
There is quite a bit of focus on the retail sales number that is going to be released tomorrow morning.
Total company sales at Lowe’s were negative for all of 2009. Walmart just barely was positive, although same-store sales were negative. Look at the charts, they go back 9 years. You can clearly see the trend. So, tomorrow morning, remember the bigger picture. One month does NOT make a trend.
Good call Walt. Are expecting to false breakout SPX?
Thanks Walt
Sam, on Friday, you said Monday Market will up and then drop hard to red. You still think so?
someone tell me how to load my important chart.!!!!
SWBB
Click on reply link, which brings comments window, below the box you can see upload file option.
What is your targets on SPX?
Sam What are the Big Boys going to do
son of a…
my vix position is getting killed.
i’m going to buy more to offset my losses.
this market has to go back down at some point doesn’t it?!
LARGE buy program running 3:40pm
Face-ripping time”
But the shorts are stuck, big time. Buy any dip…
VXX continues to get murdered…
Yes soory …. I am getting killed too…
they are trying to squeeze the Bears.. But it will go down soon
maybe starting wednesday
Keep dreaming they are slaughtering any bears left.The train to paradise is unstopable as I have been saying for months. You can’t win against a house that prints money and has as much as they want.
I believe today’s gap has to be filled. If we get another gap higher tomorrow I’ll be putting my whole account into SPY puts because back to back gaps on SPY almost always fill.
Hope your right, Im carrying over 1000 shrs TZA. But I remember thinking the same thing about multiple gaps in July of 09, and you know how that worked out- they are still open.
Not a good idea Reza – never bet the farm …. this should go down …. but with the amount of bearishness out there I would not put my whole account in …. what if this goes to 114 – then what will u do ?
We didn’t get that gap up but if we did we would have had a bigger red day than we did today. I never bet on one side 100%, unless I have an extremely high conviction of the trade. In the last year I’ve done this 3 times so it’s very seldom but I’ve never lost on it. The back up plan would be to get out with a loss and start again, but so far so good
Like I have been saying – be careful being short … the move down will come but if you are averaging in do it at key times not just any level …. there is too much bearishness everywhere ….
Why is MSFT up 6%?
MSFT planning debt sale to pay dividends and buyback. Borrowing to buyback stock is like when the homeowner was using his house as an ATM. And we all know how that ended. Moving up on debt sale. They will use for buybacks and #dividends.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wvsboPUjrGc
LOL YOUTUBE
See what money can do to you.
Stopped out of VXX a while ago at 17.85…. About 500$ loss on the initial buy of 500 shares last week…The wedge is still holding and market will end below it today…Now the question is when it will get broken?. Market is going up too fast!!! so we are looking at a crazy bubble forming again…For example can somebody explain to me how NFLX has 5.1 Billion in Market Cap and trades at 150?. Insane!!!. I see us moving higher though due to sentiment (manipulation). Again the golden opportunity to short is north of 11000s. For the moment shorst should be very short term plays….
Buffett Rules Out Double-Dip Recession Amid Growth MORE BULL!
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-13/buffett-rules-out-double-dip-u-s-recession-says-berkshire-units-growing.html
I am a huge bull on this country,” Buffett, Berkshire’s chief executive officer, said today in remarks to the Montana Economic Development Summit. “We will not have a double-dip recession at all. I see our businesses coming back almost across the board.”
Markets are headed significantly higher over the next two weeks. We’re headed to 1130 on the SP500. Break 1130, and I’ll see you at 1300.
Markets are headed significantly higher. We’re headed to 1130 on the SP500. Break 1130, and I’ll see you at 1300.
Buffett Rules Out Double-Dip Recession Amid Growth
“I am a huge bull on this country,” Buffett, Berkshire’s chief executive officer, said today in remarks to the Montana Economic Development Summit. “We will not have a double-dip recession at all. I see our businesses coming back almost across the board.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-13/buffett-rules-out-double-dip-u-s-recession-says-berkshire-units-growing.html
Sorry for the double post!
HMMMMMMMMMM NOW DO YOU BELIEVE the train to paradise is unstopable?
Oftentimes a news rumor will circulate. The best possibilities have already been “priced into” the stock before the real news breaks, the actual announcement tends to reveal the limits to the good news, rather than just the positives that are at the center of any rumor.
DO YOU BELIEVE the news and the train to paradise and like the the gaps up? HMMMMMMMMMM?
Well why wouldn’t I? Look what has transpired in the last 13 days. Market has run up almost 500 points with no resistence to speak of. We all know it is pure manipulation and so follow the trend. The idea is making money either way this screwed up mess goes.
Agree and for now the trend is sharply up …. every consolidation is for a move up …
I see us filling the gap back to 111.70 SPY tomorrow or Weds. Been trading 20 years and don’t remember ever seeing such manipulation which has got to all be POMO. Bought VXX today 17.80 and will hold, average down as long as this wave continues.
I bought the vxx today as well…I think we may be a bit early for any big move, but I plan to add as well on the way down..does anyone know the future pomo days
Its possible, but its possible we also have a fakeout of 1130 – can you imagine how many buy to covers are above that level and what happens if they trigger – just be careful … you may well be right, but be careful … I don’t like what I see for shorts right now … nothing saying that is a change in trend …. on the charts …. only some caution based on 60 min but that can go on for some time ….
no i agree…the market looks like it wants to break the 1131 level…i started a small position in the vxx as a hedge…many are now looking to 1040 area…if new tomorrow is ridiculously good i will jump out, but i think we probably get a little profit taking tomorrow…i would rule out the vxx to 16 if we continue to rally..that is why i said we may be a little early to the vxx trade…however, think it is beaten down enough to start a hedge position. do you know the schedule for future pomo days?
I hope jusbreal is okay, just saw amzn.. trading at 52-week highs.
also the shorts on NFLX also got squeezed too.. hope no one was short.