1.54 PM
Tze
Guys, come to the FocalEquity Social. Just log in and click on FEED. We can discuss trades over there. You don’t have to always comment on the Intraday. look forward to seeing your comments there. Again, Woo and I discussed and bought GDX and TZA just now…
1.47 PM
Tze
Discussed with Woo. I went ahead and bought GDX and TZA. We expect GDX to break to the north $55. TZA is the best out of all the short leveraged ETFs right now. We will see what happens.
11:00am
GS getting closer and closer to that $150 mark. We know that the first hit will probably form very strong resistance and could be a good place to go short. But if it hangs out around the 148-150 range for a while, it would form a high base and a potential break out of $150. I want to be buying any highbase around $150:
10:23am
MS in a massive daily triangle formation, if we rally above resistance (descending) then I say, it’s a buy. Otherwise, be careful cuz it can be a bumpy way down:
10:10am
Market is getting close to testing the SPY resistance of the descending channel. If we get a move above 110.50 we should see a nice rally to reach close to friday’s highs again (only this time we’d be above the resistance which caused the sell off yesterday).
9:40am
I’m a little confused on the WFC chart… I drew a descending channel similar to that of the SPY, only the last high is no where near the top of the channel. Your thoughts – go ahead and post a different chart if you have it:
Poll of the day – Current Events!
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9:35am
Here’s Visa 4 hour chart, now showing that we are at the $70 mark support.. a break of that to the south could be disasterous! You can also try buying it here and put a stop at the low, for a potential of a breakout of the bermuda triangle to the upside instead of the downside. But if we breakdown, we should see another 10-12points shove lower (it will need to break the former lows first though).
9:30am
We’re opening the day right at the 109.80 mark.. will be interesting to see if we close the first few minutes above or below this level (of support/resistance).
6:30am
We finally Launched our Images on the blog comments! Go ahead and upload your charts!
5:07am
Just wanted to introduce again the new Social aspect of FocalEquity. If you haven’t checked it out yesterday, just sift through the menu on the right one you sign in.
We all know that GOOG is relatively cheap fundamentally, but the problems with the economy could cause google to fall further. So do you short now? No. You wait for a break of the $460 level which is where all the buyers are at. At the same time, if the economy does pick up, i want to be buying the $460 level with a stop right below it, as strong support. Here is the 1 hour chart:
Tomorrow will be very telling after the FOMC at 2:00. If we have another strong green week, my upside target will be the 1170-1180 area. This will open up the triangle formation more and then I think we ultimately top at this area at the end of Sept./early October. If we see continued downside in the next few weeks, we have a good shot at heading down to the 950 area. The markets are too uncertain at these levels to day trade. I’m going to wait till I get the print from week’s end to make a move. The 50 day moving average on the 1 year weekly is starting to flatten. I still think we have one more shake out to the upside before this is all over.
There is a turning point in the cycles on Oct 1st. Maybe you are right and the market will go up to the 1170 area.
Would be a perfect short there at that time.
But everything can happen. I am short a 20 % position from end of last week. Bought some call yesterday as a protection. Just in case of 1130 and more will happen.
Everything can happen at the moment. Even after yesterday there is no clear down signs. Maybe one more day!
I’ve menti oned what the most worried me today in the After Bell Quick Summary: CPCI closed at an extremely high level which usually means big guys knew something ahead of our retailers therefore they bought a lot put to hedge their long positions. Well, I know you’d ask then what’s in the mind of the other big guys who sold such large put positions? Well, I don’t know the chart below should clear what CPCI very high means to us recently.
http://lh6.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/TIbXDN0Xo2I/AAAAAAAAIjI/iTcjzvQxthA/s1600-h/CPCIWatch%5B1%5D.png
Todays Data includes the following:
Bank Reserve Settlement
MBA Purchase Applications
7:00 AM ET
ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
7:45 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Quarterly Services Survey
10:00 AM ET
10-Yr Note Auction
11:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Beige Book
2:00 PM ET
Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET
Here’s my SPY daily chart take a look!
MCD is looking very strong. Any thoughts on going long on it?
Here’s a weekly of MCD… i’m a little worried.. my fib targets at around 78.30, which means there might be not much left to the upside for MCD. It’s getting a little too ahead of it’self.
The market tested the previous resistance around 10300-10325 and looks like it wants to bounce up. If we indeed trade positive for the rest of the week we will see the market hit the top of the wedge (attached). This will be my indicator of market commitment by the bulls ( a break of the upper blue line). Upside Target is around 10600′s short term. Longer term if we break the blue line we will see 11000′s
you didn’t wait for the image to upload.. you gotta wait until it shows up in your post. Can you repost it please?
Anybody shorting VISA here? Or buying it???
What happened to it? Bad news or did support give way?
I’m not sure… support is still giving a fight.. but it looks like it’s about to break. I dunno if any news came out. Can you look it up?
Idan,
Talking non-technical GOOG seems to be out of favor with the market.
This should be trading in the 490′s as this was the level it was trading when the markets were at these levels the last couple of months
If it breaks 460, could spell trouble.
I don’t see the upside in the short term… do you?
You should be buying it at 460.. if it fails.. you should be shorting it. Since it’s above 460.. i’m a buyer. I think it deserves to be in the 480-500 range… so i am bullish somewhat on it. As per my wall on social.
Do you see resistance being at $478?
The 20 day average may pose some resistance
Idan,
talk to me…crucial point for me in GOOG…does this continue to $478 or higher or does it pull back
My Sept call options are losing time value quickly and I think I need to make a decision now to stay the course and hope it goes to $478 today or tomorow or simply get out now
thanks much!
Just bought some Teck Resources Oct 39 puts (TCK.B.TO)
Poll of the day – Current Events! When do you think Israel will attack Iran? Over 50% think never? They are wrong!
The poll should be when will Iran & Russia. attack Israel & USA. Soon.
President Obama is a Muslim. The Muslim’s think they have a friend in the White House.
President Obama said that Islam’s call to prayer is the most beautiful thing he’s ever heard.
I have been to Israel seven times and hearing that call to prayer is foreboding, not beautiful. It would only be beautiful to the ears of Muslims. However, when President Obama actually testifies that he believes that Jesus is the Way the Truth and the Life – truly God and the Only way to the Father – He will then put this issue to rest. I believe that he is whatever the moment calls for – he’s a very mixed up man – not really knowing what he truly believes.
Well ethnicity wise.. he comes from a 1/4 muslim background and 3/4 christian.. so it makes sense that he’s pro muslim as well as pro christian…
He has problems backing up Israel though because of pure PR… but soon even the democrat jews living in NYC will turn against him and vote for a republican congress and potentially a new republican president in ’12
Thanks roo,
I agree -He’s a fake – A Wolf trying to wear sheep clothings
Iranian midget Submarine Spotted in Gulf of Mexico Sep, 2010
The Iranian made mini sub was spotted Sept 1, heading North through the Yucatan Channel. Some defense analyst believe Iran may have loaned the Sub to Venezuela who may be operating from a base in Cuba. Janes Information Group had published in their subscriber article that this was the second siting of an Iranian Midget Submarine in the Gulf of Mexico region. The Qadir class has the ability to launched fast attack low profile inflatable boats that can carry up to 8 Commandos each. RBS media in Brazil surmised that Iranian or North Korean midget submarines were responsible clandestine attacks on American Oil Platforms and infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico.
Janes Defense: The Iranian Navy commissioned three more indigenously built midget submarines into its fleet at a ceremony in Bandar Abbas on 1 June, according to state-run media. The new craft are believed to be the fourth, fifth and sixth units in the Qadir-class (Yono/IS 120) procurement programme, which first came to light in the West in February 2004. Jane’s has previously reported the launch of the fourth and fifth boats in November 2007 and November 2008 respectively. A class of up to 10 is anticipated.
http://www.janes.com/news/defence/naval/jni/jni090603_1_n.shtml
picked up some CRUS at 16.33 for a trade
Why are you bullish on CRUS.. i see a daily H&S formation on it.. what makes you want to buy it?
good business, not a lot of Debt, good amount of cash, possible buyout, etc. Yea that could be a HS pattern, but I see a bull flag forming too
Why does it feel like the market will reverse today?
reverse back down you mean?
Oh yes.
get the feeling this rally will not last that long or will not go that high.The SMH is showing some weakness and unless that index gets stronger the rally will be minimal IMO..
banks aren’t that strong either…1103? isn’t that the decending resistance to take out? or maybe even a trip to the 100 then sell inti obama’s speech?
I have also had the same feeling. Nothing more than a gut feeling, but rather strong!
Sorry, this was a reply to #12.
Anyone taking Visa short?
Not sure whether i should yet or not.. i don’t like the fact that the market is rallying.. if it give away from it’s gains i’ll go short on the re-test of the 69.90-70 level.
http://www.stocktiming.com/Wednesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
Good one, thanks for the post Rob.
How do you think about this chart, huge head and shoulder, it should be 3 of P3 if it happens.
Does Anyone play / Watch ULU? Its a penny stock and the chart kind off looks interesting. I would appreciate any feedback from the Gurus!! Idan, Woo or anyone else.
Thanks
FYI had a spike today on news that they signed a marketing agreement with some company. They are into new generation Wound bandages…. Company has no debt to speak of, decent cash reserves and several patents in the early stages….
SPY @ 110.62 now. bought some SDS.. but not feeling good about it.
Am I the only one thinking of going long Intel here?
looks like intc may have a little more downside
yeah, but it’s getting close to the time to buy.
Can you post a chart of intel.. why are you thinking of going long?
i don’t have a chart.
if i were to buy it now i would have my stop at 17.60, the low from the 31st.
if it breaks that i don’t want to be holding it.
something tells me intc is going to at least lower 17…could be wrong…aren’t there a lot of puts at 16 strike?
my bad on the puts…doesn’t look like it
I think the rest of this week will be a non event and i see sideways trading due to the jewish holidays..Happy new year to all who are celebrating..
What about next week with the understanding that next week is opex and we all know what happens when it’s expiration..How can you tell who is positioned where or max pain level..??? We all know the market likes to make the bulk of the options worthless so where is the heaviest bet at this point.??
From Twitter : could this be moving GS? Not really sure why it would, but it seems to be doing well today.
RyanRuggiero RT @CNBC: More Coming up on The Strategy Session! RT CNBCbrk: CNBC’s Kate Kelly: Goldman Sachs In Talks To Sell U.S. Strategies Arm $GS
I mentioned a wedge in my previous post. Here it goes.
testing 1 2 3
Hey all, this is morris. Just checking in to see how the site is coming along. I hope this finds you all happy and well!
welcome back morris
Hey Morris, nice to hear from you. Have you still be trading? Sticking with oil? I miss your posts.
Yes, still actively trading the UCO/SCO pair. I also started trading options in the last month and that has been an exciting new adventure!
Hey morris, good to see you back!
Had me worried, thought it was yet another of Zee/Sam/T-shirt’s manifold of personas, lol.
Ha, thanks! I’m not sure if I’m “back”; we’ll see. I was really just checking in to see how things are going here. It sounds like the same trolls are still lurking around.
So good to hear from you again, Morris. Hope you will stay around some.
idan…where do you stand on the vxx…still more downside?
Not idian, but yesterdays 5% leap in vxx was strongly suggestive of a fake-up to sell worthless
puts into opex.
This has been done like a script and peeps still fall for it?
Why are Solar plays hot right now, with NatGas under $4? Just doesnt make sense
can’t be as bad as cloud computing mania. That is just obscene.
Following fundamentals tends to work for longer term investing, but not for shorter term trading. Yesterday at SPX 1095 I posted “bears should not get too aggressive at this point” & that “INDU 10323 & SPX 1093 & 1090 were all buy levels” because we are not quite there as far as the “big down” is concerned.
Target for this rally, as per last Friday, is still the 1129 area until further notice. Yes, Walt is still expecting a classic “Fall Crash” but only after this present rally has run its course.
After buying yeserday’s weakness right into the close Walt has rid himself of 60% of his longs into SPX 1101-1102 this morning. There is both minor short term trend channel resistance at this level and a far more dominant one stemming from the bear market rally high at 1219 and running down through the high a month ago at 1129. If the market runs straight through these trendlines that’s okay as far as Walt is concerned. On the other hand Walt will add to longs on all pullbacks whilst 1129 still remains the target area. Right now support appears to be near the up trend channel trendline near 1195-1196 which is rising at around 8 SPX points per day.
We could see massive upside for the NAmerican markets for the rest of this week, this Based on
Sammy the zee not gloating for an entire day.
Will post a chart of market reversals and advances VS number of sammy McZee gloats. LOL.
My prediction is forecasting is difficult, more difficult if about the future.
Mkt forming an inv H&S on the top … wrong location but pattern is there … if we bust this area, the tgt of the pattern is 112.15 – 112.2
RS now formed perfectly ….
The volume on spy seems to have completely dried up. The market cannot break the resistance in the low 1100′s with this kind of volume. Does anyone see this market backing off to 1075ish first.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NFLX&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p58036972787&a=204535071
NFLX is doing really well. I was talking about it yesterday. Still have a longer term target in the 160s
The market couldn’t break the line just yet…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p45993029923&a=160222837
Yesterday when most people did not know what to do, I told you the exact stock, exact entry, exact strike price , exact trade, exact target price, exact time to reach that target price, exact everything. I hope you remember my post on RIMM yesterday and everything is just happening exactly as I said, just like all other time. Very exact. So please do not say that I don’t say my trades. Here you go. SWBB
Look at my two post yesterday. I copied them below. Read them several times and think about what I said. Every world I said worth several once Gold. Yesterday morning when most people did not know what is ahppening I warned about dolar rally and I said market should tank, Sure enough market did tank and dollar did rally exactly as I said, the I warned everybody that big boys usually override technical and fundamental and they push higher, sure enough they did what I told you yesterday they will do. SWBB
Also look at my calls on RIMM. WOW
============================================
sam says:
September 7, 2010 at 7:50 am
For the last ten days dollar has been dealing with 50MA on daily chart. Looks like it will close above it pretty soon and will have another run, so bad would be for bulls in socks, but remember if big boys are long in stocks the they do not care about these and they just push the market higher even though nothing make sense for stocks to go higher, basically they override all technical and fundamental rules.
SWBB
========================================
sam says:
September 7, 2010 at 1:24 pm
In my opinion RIMM is a buy now until expiry date. I bought a few Oct 45 call and I hope stock to go higher into earning toward 47.5
SWBB
================
how long are you planning on holding RIMM? today it looks good, but the whole market is up. Are you going to keep holding into exp?
Woo, I just dropped 50% of my calls to book my profit, I am going to stay in the rest 50% until the price hit 20 MA before earning and I am confident it will. I do not know what happens after earning but i will not surprise me if it rally above 50 but it may tank as well that is why I will not hold after earning. Look at MACD and divergence
SWBB
—– RINO —– Anybody here like this set up..I was listening to Tom O’brien and he really likes to perhaps $21.00
Any thoughts ????
amzn since the breakout of the white trend line and wedge:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AMZN&p=D&yr=2&mn=5&dy=0&id=p96835350693&a=181646175
could be heading towards the 142-144 area.
a few days ago, i said to look for a $260+ on AAPL for it to enter into the upper channel:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AAPL&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p19885219021&a=173009294
yea my limit at 264 on AAPL hit Got it in the low 250s Now my CRUS trade isnt going exactly as planned, I was thinking it was going to rise w/AAPL today but instead slowly drifting down. if it hits 16, I am out
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UAUA&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p05197197960&a=192491148
UAUA is a buy north of $22.75
VIX testing the 200ma
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p94052776682&a=204018771
let’s see which direction the market chooses…
Rally should end in 15 minutes ….oops, I mean O speaks in 15 minutes (or so I hear). Timed the same as Beige Books results, hmmmmm.
BTW, this horsecrap about allowing businesses to accellerate deductions is exactly that, horse doody. The IRS has been doing this for years, but now the news spins it as if it’s new and exciting. Doesn’t really save anybody any real $, just a timing difference (ie: deduct capital spending in 2010 instead of over 5 , 7 or even 27.5 years). It was very big post 9/11.
Hi Davecash77-
In answer to your question about ops ex and max pain – you might like this website.
http://maxpain.info/default.aspx
Thanks Valerie….:-)
Beige book #’s out, not great from the brief summary on Bloomberg
Great Quote: BP Blaming it’s partners for drilling rig disaster is like Bernie Madoff blaming his accountant.
VIX 200ma regained.
VIX 200ma lost.
The COMPQ & RUT have both 0.6% to travel before they hit their main trendlines stemming down from the bear market highs last April. The SPX has 0.2% to travel whilst the INDU has a more generous1.5%. These are important trendlines and will be carefully watched by market technicians. I believe all will be broken in the next few days creating another short squeeze which will be the last hurrah for this rally. Ultimate targets are INDU 10700 and SPX 1129. Severe decline to follow.
Gold has a magnet at 1260 which it is having trouble overcoming just below the all-time high at 1265. Although gold has been behaving extremely well recently the commercial shorts have been piling in to near record levels as the rally has advanced. To date in this gold bull market commercial short positions of this magnitude have always preceded a correction of some degree. There is always a first time, and with the general market very soon to face substantial headwinds this could be it, but the historical odds simply do not favour a big push in gold from this juncture. I hope I am wrong as Walt is very, very, very long everything gold as far as the longer term is concerned but a multi-week correction here would appear to be par for the course
Walt,
Do you like to share SPX Chart?
What do think about 1107 Gap fill?
This movement is a bit dangerous….slightly bullish…
will probably hold my TZA into tomorrow if we can sustain this area and head a bit lower. Have GDX from a while back, but am willing to keep holding that.
NFLX will wait on adding.
If it can’t break back above this line, we’ll probably get a stronger drop into closing.
Looks like a back test of that trend line. Payroll numbers should move the markets tomorrow. I`m still holding my Teck puts up 10% so far.
LOL John Baynard’s tan faced head is probably ready to explode with what Obama has been saying about him…lol quite funny…
so are we touching 1103 again, then selling into the close?
another 1103 touch would probably be pretty dangerous…
broad market update, GS was a huge buyer all AM
http://bidhitter.com/observations/midday-broad-market-update-for-982010/
BRING IT! I am short. =)
You`re short GS woo? Is it through calls or puts?
short overall market.
mczee? lol