Poll of the day – How are you trading gold? Leave your comments below as well!
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1:50pm
A UNG breakout of $6.50 might be a potential bottom for UNG.. it’s not a long term bottom, but might help UNG go back into 7s. Here’s the 1 hour chart, showing how strong the 6.5 resistance is:
11:45am
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11:24am
Yesterday I pointed out the most overbought stock. Well here’s one of the most oversold stocks, that has finally bottomed out (as long as it stays above $16). This is all from our Alerts & Analytics service which provides you great oversold & overbought stocks!
Anw 60 minute:
10:54am
For those who missed it… GS pushed over $140 in the premarket, it then ran up all the way to 145+, and could still run to 146 before it seems any pull back. How are you guys trading the financials?
10:24am
We have gotten a little bit of a momentum shift right around 111.. or so. Now on the 1 minute it looks like 110.50 is going to be the momentum decider for the time being. Any rally above 110.50 in the next 30-40 minutes will shove us higher.. otherwise it might be going in for a pull back to 110.00
9:31am
After a great jobs report showing that private employment has increased, the market is opening above the 110 mark.. We are way overdue for a pull back, but we can hit 110.80 before we do so. There is also a possibility for us to hit 113.. before we see any pull back (inverse H&S neckline).
6:41am
The Euro continuing to get stronger against the dollar and the dollar weakness is definitely helping the markets prop up even further. But we all know what’s going to happen at 8:30am.. no matter how you slice it, this is the news everyone was waiting for the whole week – Employment situations.
Also at 10am, very important is the non manufacturing ISM.
If the SPY does not react badly to any of this news, we will hit 110.00 today, that should be some resistance for at least a few hours or a day.
Hi Idan!
I miss your live video seccions.
When are we to see them again and having the possibility of making questions?
BM
I am technically on vacation right now… so i’m not here the whole trading day. I will start doing it once we have our new social set up and i’m back from vacation. Shouldn’t take more than 2-3 weeks!
Okay! I’m looking forward!
Have a nice holiday
BM
Futures green looking for another big up green day. SPY will blow through 110 with ease. Employment numbers will be better than expected and the train to paradise will continue a chuggin away.
if big boys continue pushing up then the odds is that we are going to see a huge drop
SWBB
I agree Sam but they will push up today and after that then probabilities will be higher next week for some kind of drop. Remember they won’t let any bad news come out until Monday when the markets are closed that way nobody can do a dam thing about it, that is their #1 trick they play. Nobody has heard anything in the talking heads news groups about Afghanistan have they?
i heard Obama is expected to talk about his plans to further stimulate the economy (tax extension, payroll tax, small business stimulus, etc)….can’t imagine being short going into a three day weekend particularly if he may change his tune about a tax extension…isn’t this what the market has been waiting for?
That too chic and he most definitely will continue the tax extensions and any stimulus he can. Those are his “reserve” bullets to help in propping market up as long as he can to save his job. Manipulation is his only ally and he will continue that at all cost.
You honestly think the TV president is coming on to “talk” about bad numbers? He is coming on to applaud all his “great” work and take all the credit for the better than expected numbers trust me.
all your political views aside…lol…i think there will be some sort of further stimulus announcement over the long weekend that the market will like…it has happened so many times before….infrastructure stimulus and tax extensions will give the market a huge bump…just think it is risky being short over the weekend..but then again, i thought for sure we would break 1040 this last time
Bingo I hit it again!!
THE TRAIN TO PARADISE IS UNSTOPABLE!! UP UP AND AWAY WE GO………..AGAIN!!
Look for massive short covering for any bears still left breathing. Bulls taking no prisoners and the TV President will have a field day.
SPY will open over 111.00!! Look for 113+ by EOD.
Watch the SPX bump on 1120 today.
Another 30 point day
Na will be another at least 100 pt day even if they decide to take profits the momentum is just to strong. You are better playing in a casino in Vegas than this one for this one has billions and billions your are playing(losing) against.
Congrats on predicted 1100… very well done!
I agree the momentum is definitely there.. i think we can hit 1130 before we either break out or fall backdown strongly.
Thanks bro I try to give people a heads up so they don’t lose their arses. I know I was scoffed at but don’t shoot the messenger. I know I am not right all the time but I am batting 100% this week. The market has brought back all the losses in the whole month of August in just one short week in September. Funny thing is September has been historically the worst month for the market but I don’t think that will hold true this year. However anything can happen but always follow the trend.
They said that last year too, but September was a pretty good month to be long last year, so this might make it 2 years in a row.
I have been long 25% of my 401K since 1065 – and enjoying the ride … looking for the action today at 1105 … if we break this, then 1130 is next …
We suged above 1100 resistance and then pulled back and bounced from it – testing it as support …
Idan,
Hope you didn’t get stopped out on Google.
I see a nectie formation between the 20 and the 50 around $473…do you see this as resistance or the $478 level you mentioned yesterday?
I did get stopped out unfortunately. 473 is some resistance.. but 478 i think is much stronger… i think we could have a touch of 478 and then fall back to around 473 (i dunno if it’ll be today or monday or tuesday) but that’s what i think the intra-day action might be like.
I wrote a couple of days back about the criticality of two levels
10150 and 10350…It seems both will be in our rear view mirrors today. The momentum is strong and the market seems to be showing its true face (with plenty of fuel: shorts) trapped on board. Now the next levels to watch will be 10550 and 10700 which mark the descending line from the top wedge. Market breaks these levels and we will 11200 again and we could see 11600s. (which I wrote about a while back). I am riding 1000 shares of TNA at an average price of 35.45. I made up for all my losses and I am green once again….
Congrats JROD but watch it closely things change faster than lightning take your profits and GLTY. I will be looking at TZA when it gets back down around 30 to ride the drop when it comes and you know it will, just not today.
What do you guys think about shorting the gold miners, they seem to be over extended and a few of them have already put in a bearish shooting star on the daily, like AEM.
I actually think gold is about to explode again… the way it’s been inching up so slightly right now at a triple top… i think one day it just blows up 3-4 %.
I agree gold should move higher, but I have to see a pullback on AEM before buying the next leg up.
I mean a big pullback (4pts or so) not the last 3 days worth.
Thanks guys.
I am thinking about buying the VXX…any thoughts
I’m not a buyer of volatility right now.. i think it can get cheaper by a 3-4% before you can enter it.
i was thinking the same thing… seems like volatility is way too cheap right now, it is sept after all.
Well, VIX is at the lower BB and about 16% below it’s 9day SMA. Overdone, sure but certainly it can fall further. Risky play bottom hunting. I’d keep a tight stop…lots of upward momo out there.
so better play beginning to mid next week?
Well, thinking about it the last 5min saved you some coin. The risk tolerance is obviously your decision.
I’m anxious to see what more volume brings next week. There will be a pullback either soon or the 112.5-113 neckline.
Bought some SU Oct calls, still have about 85% in cash.
What are the chances we’ll close this mornings gap? I wouldn’t be surprised if it happens.
IF the bulls gave back 100 pts or so with all their mo, that would be pretty bearish. Seems like all we did today was tag the 100 ma which was kinda written in the cards yesterday.
Very nice shooting star on the first SPY hourly of the day. Dojis since.
Ok the Tv president is on gloating about the employment numbers and describing how he will make everything even rosier. What a fricken tard this clown is.
hahaha yeah.. what can you do? He forgets about the 3 weeks of horrible data.
Employment data is a farce. Excluding the birth/death rate ahem…”estimates”, we lost jobs. It’s a shame power retention involves stuffing BS down the collective throat of the populace.
Yes I agree with you all ,
Please Help us Lord
TV pres. is an Abomination
Draw a line along the tops of the last 2 days – we just backtested it and bounced …
I see, but if 110 gives then the gap shall be closed.
yup… that’s what will happen and thus forming a beautiful topping candle.
Why does it feel like the market is topping? Was the better than expected numbers already priced in?
Yes …. that will be bearish … some how thinking we may have one more push up …. watching carefully …
Need the last hurrah and it may run into EOD …. bouncing as I thought but need to see more followthrough …
Dsavil – what are you thinking …
lada dee lada deee
Emplyment numbers were just noise. You have to expect the numbers to come down. How many more jobs are even left to get rid of? Watch the market come back EOD with profit taking and shaken out bears that couldn’t stand the heat. Do not let your emotions control your plays for if you do you will certainly lose.
got long some CRUS at 17
Where’s your stop.. cuz the last high was lower than the former one on the 1 minute..
ahhh I hate this market…looks like a slow drip drip down as everyone leaves early for vaca
16.75 with a limit to sell at 17.35. The high for the day is 17.75
I changed that to 17.25 as its trading kinda slow and I am taking my 1%+ and done for the day
bought a touch more SDS, purely a daytrade, will sell before EOD (which will likely be early due to storm) fairly tight stop.
Bought some Teck puts, check out tck.b.to, looks very toppy.
I have to say I was blown away by the jobs number. But what I am even more surprised by was the ISM services number. These numbers are in total contrast. ISM Services and ADP tell an entirely different picture than ISM manufacturing and the payroll report. Today’s payroll report had a huge birth/death adjustment… I don’t know if that could be skewing things. ISM Services Employment component was the first negative (below 50) this year… and a sharp drop from the July. Dare I say is it possible that both ISM Manufacturing and Payrolls are completely wrong? It may actually be possible. More importantly, it likely takes QE2 off the table for at least one more Fed meeting. GS/BAC and some others were talking about a QE2 in three weeks at the next announcement. I can say with certainty that that is no longer the case after today’s Payroll data.
Some highlights from ISM services…
http://www.marksmarketanalysis.com/2010/09/ism-services-refutes-jobs-data.html
Manufacturing accounts for about 10 percent of our output? And the ISM manufacturing report grew as a result of a lift in exports. ISM services paints a more representative picture of the total US domestic economy.
As for jobs the numbers are better than expectations, but that is not saying much. UE ticks up, and the private sector is no where near creating enough jobs on a monthly basis to accomodate new entries into the labor force.
“Better than expectations” is different than “good” but either way, I think QE if off the table until some exogenous event pushes the fragile economy in the wrong direction. That is the true risk here: an exogenous event (black swan) that is not priced in occurs at a time when the economy is fragile, when the Fed has limited tools, and the government is likewise constrained by gridlock.
When NFP has manufacturing jobs down and ISM has a bounce in the employment component, that is more than missing expectations or beating them or whatever… it is an inconsistency… one has to be right and the other wrong. Pure and simple. Given the litany of other negative reports, I am tending to believe that NFP and ISM manufacturing were not accurate. Manufacturing makes up a larger % of GDP than that… closer to 20-30%. Yes, service sector on balance is more important though. However, in the final analysis I agree with your comment about these reports likely forestalling any QE2.
I agree seahawk, 51.5 seems pretty pathetic for a supposed recovery.
I moved to 100% cash in my trading account. Sold all my longs that I had bought a week back when SPX was around 1040. Last week has been excellent week for me.
I am not sure which way the market is going to go. I will sit on the sidelines till I have a high probabilty trade
Idan – is woo ok … not heard from him for a few days …. I hope his hand is feeling better …
yeah he’s alright but he did need to go to the hospital for his finger… he just needs to take some time off and he’ll be fine in a few days.
Great – thanks for updating …. hopefully he’ll be fine soon …
same, I hope he’s back 2 normal soon.
Action lookin more like a bear flag …. not liking it …
Still think we have one more push up …. but would like us to cross 110.61 and stay above it … until then we could still fall to close the gap if we break 110 …
Crossed 110.61 – now lets hold up …
The rally from SPX 1039 is typical of a bear market rally – fast and furious. Nevertheless it is still a bear market rally. The curious aspect is the high earlier today at SPX 1105 has retraced a rather large amount of the decline from the top at 1129 earlier this month, namely 72%. This doesn’t smell right.
As a result we have to assume that 1129 was not an important wave top and that we need to look elsewhere to judge what the market is in fact correcting. The most plausible outcome is that the market is still correcting the decline from the 2010 high at 1219 (rather than a smaller degree decline from 1129). This (upward) correction, starting in June, can be seen as a large “W” shaped pattern on the SPX chart containing 5 waves ABCDE with the SPX now in final wave E up.
One major implication is that the target area for the conclusion of wave E is similar to the tops for waves A & C, namely 1131 & 1129 respectively. The other significant implication is the large “W” is the final phase of a large degree wave 2 (of 3) meaning wave 3 (of 3) down has not yet left the runway. A classic “Fall Crash” is still on schedule.
The move from 1039 in recent days has been brisk to say the least and a pullback here is possible or probable before the advance continues. The magnets at INDU 10323 & SPX 1093 are trying to pull the market back as is the huge gap on the SPX left behind this morning at 1090. All these levels are a buy.
roo, what site are you getting this from, if you dont mind me asking?
Trading what you think
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ktKNEGSqLB4
Perfect ….
http://www.stocktiming.com/Friday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
http://bidhitter.com/observations/midday-broad-market-update-for-932010/
options players not buying this rally at all….EXTREMELY bearish sentiment out there today…boding well for continued market advance.
Roo – how do you determine that ?
That’s me
Looks like we test mornings high
I am getting morning highs or 111.3 as a possibility …
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24indu&p=d&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p89755816760&a=202600093
Roo, do you think we push thru the DOW 200 ma here without even a pullback. That would be incredibly bullish.
The pace has slowed even more ahead of the long weekend. Bear mrkt rallies tend to be violent.
$SPX still has room to run! Look to take profits around 1115 to 1120 area next week.
I am looking for upto 1130 – but think a quick pullback on the cards next week …
Damn GS up 5%++ already… amazing. $146 broke out.. now we are going to see 147,148,149 and finally 150 as the strongest resistance.
Did you buy it too?
Goldman Sachs Said to Be Disbanding Principal Strategies Unit
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is shutting its principal-strategies business, a group that makes bets with the firm’s own capital, to comply with new U.S. rules aimed at curbing risk
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-03/goldman-said-to-shut-principal-strategies-unit-to-comply-with-volcker-rule.html
I bought it premarket around the $140-141 mark.. but i got stopped at like 144.80
Heartwarming Story of Day – Goldman Sachs tires of stealing your money in an obvious way
NFLX short squeeze coming.
I’m betting on a red day for Tuesday. I got puts on TCK.B.TO and it looks like it’s topping if it goes up Tuesday I’ll buy more puts.
AAPL and GS taking the market up and pushing hard. What bears are left are hiding fearing for their lives! All out massacre.
spy hitting 110.50 again.. if it breaks below we could have a bearish sell off..
Very possible indeed I look to see it happen with profit taking. If SPY was infact strong bullish I find it interesting it did not break 111.00.
Might get one more try into the close …
Like a surge – that will tell you to get out …. I will be closing 70% of the 25% long that I went in my portfolio from 1065 … expect a pullback to 109 or 107.5 next week …
I believe so they will stay on this ride as long as they can but in last 15-20 mins look for sell off and EOD will be around +20 with Spy at 109.95. That way will keep everyone guessing.
I am thinking a rally into the close … like a last hurrah – if we touch 111.08 today …then we are done for a few days …
I’m bearish, maybe a dumba$$ trader, but if I’m hiding it’s cause I’m busy at work. And I am certainly not fearing for my life. Of course, I’m not betting my mortgage on anything.
This market is messed up, and there is such a super big H&S covering 10 years or so, I think it’s worth the risk being short in my trading account (which BTW is much smaller than my current 401k, etc).
For me, bearish is a nice hedge. In my 401k only options are long equity funds, bond funds or cash.
Of course, I would have been much happier if I jumped into TNA a few days ago, nobody likes losing $.
If I could only understand Sams post about RIMM….. that boy is much smarter than most of us, and he’s certainly much smarter than I; I’m lucky if I can get 50% of my trades correct. GLA, safe weekends all.
If this bullcrap ever breaks, it will be swift, merciless, and make this move up look like a pimple on an elephants butt. Of course, if the opposite is true and we hit 1300′s, it will make this move look like the pimple on…….
Hey Robert,
lol funny analogy but true … This bull crap will end soon
Nonfarm payrolls show current job market losses 3x that of normal recession cycle. Decreased by 54,000 in August Recovery?
http://www.chartoftheday.com/20100903.htm?T
Radio broadcasting company $ETM up another 7% today. A 33% gain in 3 days following insider purchases by its Chairman.
(above tweet caught my eye, not playing it)
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10851195/visa-director-sells-46m-worth.html
Loaded with puts on SPY, UAUA and sold the Sept10th 19 VXX put for .40. Looking for iron cross close on both SPY and UAUA. A sell off in SPY down to 110 would set us bears up nicely for Tuesday as well.
Max upside revised to 111.08 now …. if we stay above 110.5 ….. after that pullback to 107.5 – 109 then maybe another move up ..
Are you banking on pullback Tues-Wed
Grady – not playing puts as I want to avoid the decay on my options …. I did close 80% of my longs in my 401K and 60% of my longs in my IRA today ….
I went long in my 401K around 1065 …
Even in the triangle count, there will be a pullback and then a move up …. right now if you see the chart on 60 min we have a higher high and higher low …
Right now the ST indicators (60 min) are bullish … and the daily are turning bullish … the very short term are oversold which says some pullback …. so I will wait for the weakness to play out and then re-enter in the direction of strength of 60 min and daily ….
Honestly am sick of trying to call the top and bottom … so trying to identify change in trend and then ride it …. today was such a low stress day ….
BTW, stopped out of my SDS I bought interday for an insignificant loss of $30 or so. Oh well…..
I read (didnt look) that NFLX getting creamed.
lol, just looked, it’s up. Maybe just rose, or for these guys, a 1% gain is a loser of a day. This bugger is a freakin rocket.
Now I understand. Other chatter was this one was rising.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-03/coinstar-builds-apple-relationship-as-it-seeks-online-partner-for-movies.html
Cmon AMZN give me AT LEAST a 137′ish …
You may get better next week – not this week …. today is time to take (at least) partial profits on longs ….
Ramin the stake into the heart! No prisoners taken. Game over have a nice day.
SPY extremely strong close, good chance we go higher tuesday
Yup right into 111.00.
Like I said
Look for a quick pullback next week … that may give a buy the dip opp for a 3-4% move …. then we will have to see …
We may get a possible push up on tues as we did not touch my tgt of 111.08-111.3 … but not sure if we got close enough for govt work …
All this s*&t that has moved up needs to at least back test so no point in staying long into next week.
Too many people fighting it … hence I expect it to continue … pullback a little next week to get people (bears) excited, then squeeze them into opex …
Devastating day for us bears. I converted my October puts into strangles at great cost, although the volitility helped a little.
Even in the triangle count, there will be a pullback and then a move up …. right now if you see the chart on 60 min we have a higher high and higher low …
Right now the ST indicators (60 min) are bullish … and the daily are turning bullish … the very short term are oversold which says some pullback …. so I will wait for the weakness to play out and then re-enter in the direction of strength of 60 min and daily ….
Honestly am sick of trying to call the top and bottom … so trying to identify change in trend and then ride it …. today was such a low stress day …