Find out which is the 2nd most overbought stock here
1:08pm
It looks like we could have a reversal in the EUR/USD forex as the dollar is strengthening. to confirm a true reversal, we need to see 1.2795 breakdown, and then a new low below that of 1.278.
12:08pm
The bears have not really showed any conviction yet, this does give the bulls another chance to shove us higher… right now, no reason to short this market at all. I’d rather stay on the sidelines or buy on any small dip in individual stocks.
11:06am
One of the most overbought stocks in the market RIGHT NOW is … CRM. If you look at the weekly chart below you will see why. Alerts & Analytics has it’s reasons for taking it short, if you want to join in, you might consider an october put spread. The chart is below.
10:46am
GS really not participating here.. after hitting the $140 for a few times, it’s now moving down.. a break of $138 will be very bearish for GS and will lead us to new short term lows near the former lows of $129. I also expect the XLF to pull back from levels in the 14.10+ area with GS’s breakdown. This should put a lot of pressure on the SPY. Rememeber the SPY between 106-110 is in NEUTRAL territory, not bullish, not bearish. I rather stay back and watch.
9:50am
Sure the SPY is still very likely to complete a nice inverse H&S formation on the daily, but the XLF can’t, why? It made a new low… and now it’s in a bearish expanding triangle formation:
9:47am
USO potentially breaking it’s 32.75 intraday support… if the real jump up happened from china, then the USO is a great way to reflect global growth in general. A break of $32.75 is not looking good for the US, even though 32.45-32.55 is some strong support as well. Here’s the 10 minute:
9:37am
on the SPY 1 minute we can see how 108.50 is finding already some support… and we keep bouncing on it.. other intraday support levels to watch today is the 108.00-108.05 level… resistance however, not many until 109-109.15. We are waiting for housing numbers and a bunch of other data at 10am.
8:45am
GS finally a buy? I think so… if it rallies above 140.. I will be buying it, and have a trailing stop. While it might still fall into the 120-130 range, it’s definitely got the market momentum to move higher. A break of 140 will turn me bullish on GS and i think it’s likely to rally up to $146. Here’s the 10 minute resistance:
8:32am
Jobless Claims come in slightly better than expected (right around consensus) @ 472K vs 470K consensus. Productivity comes in right around consensus. ES hasn’t moved much on the news, but Eur/USD fell a little.
What stocks are you trading today? It looks like the market is still pointing at a potential continuation of the shorterm uptrend, the only thing that could possibly change it is jobless claims today and employment situation tomorrow. There is also a WHOLE LOT OF DATA today.
Poll of the day!
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Look for the market to continue “trend” up into the Labor Day weekend. I feel the employment numbers will be not that great but the market already knows that so as a result I would not anticipate any major sell off and continue green.
This day is going to be packed with the most data ever… from sales to speakers to jobs to housing to auctions.
Chain Store Sales
Monster Employment Index
6:00 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Productivity and Costs
8:30 AM ET
Ben Bernanke Speaks
9:00 AM ET
Sandra Pianlto Speaks
9:05 AM ET
Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET
Pending Home Sales Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
6-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
3-Yr Note Announcement
11:00 AM ET
10-Yr Note Announcement
11:00 AM ET
30-Yr Bond Announcement
11:00 AM ET
10-Yr TIPS Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_goypolxEFd4/TH83oxWlGNI/AAAAAAAAHwA/0IlwIGppu80/s1600/SPX+Monthly.png
One stock I have in my list for a explosive rally is ABX. It is dealing with one big resistence at 48 and since ABX has been in a powerful rally and I expect the 48 to be broken soon.
I do see some strenght start coming to BAC which is very oversold. I do expect this stock to rally hard toward 15 if market stablize and we do not see a crash in September.
SWBB
Idan, Woo,
What are your thoughts on where the market is headed now? What are the potential resistance levels and short term targets to the upside? 200 SMA on an hourly SPY is sitting around 109.4. Iam guessing that the market might stay flat today and will shoot towards 110 tomorrow on jobs numbers.
Even though the momentum is definitely showing we are moving higher, and it is incorrect to assume that we turn around (based on the charts). The overall trend is still to the downside. Yesterday we hit both the 20SMA and 50SMA on the daily which are incredibly strong moving averages.. i’m guessing these will form some resistance either today or tomorrow…
If the market stays flat for two days, you should expect 110 monday or so… but if you see a major decline below 107.70 and start breaking support levels that we had yesterday (like the open)… then you know we’re going back down.
Idan, You asked about GOOG yesterday. I guess GOOG has started its move toward 500. I am looking at RSI , I would go long and I will sell once RSI reach to 80. But remember that I do not go long at anything until I see a pull back in overall market and a higher low
SWBB
I didn’t really ask about GOOG.. i said that i’m buying GOOG if it falls back to 460, with a stop right underneath.
Idan,
Did you buy GOOG when it retreated to $460?
Looks like its consolidating to bust through the $464.50 area and once it does it is going straight to its 50 day moving average of $475
thoughts?
you betcha.. right at the end of the day.. i bought a bit.. but i’m about to be stopped out.. my stops are at 461.25 right now… so i’m hoping we bust through today.. and i can keep moving my stop..
Buying it here.. is not that bad, but your stop would have to be under $460.. just make sure you can afford that loss, if so, it’s all good. 0.4% usually doesn’t make too bad of a difference.
Idan,
Is my projection that if it breaks $464.50 to go to $475 have any merit?
What do you see happening if it break to the upside at these levels?…where will the resistance be?
thanks
Yeah i even see $478 as the real resistance after 464 breaks.
Market doing as I projected as the train to paradise keeps chugging away! SPY 109 hit and be looking for 110-110.80 to be here by EOD tomorrow.
Looking for pullback to 1070-75 before we move thru 1086
Thank Christ, the train to paradise may actually outperform my 1% checking account YTD. NM 110 won’t get that done.
train to paradise will change way to hell !!
Everytime someone says “crash” and market going down 3-5% the ugly dragon rears it’s head up and bites your head off enjoying every chew.
dang 1%, thats good, where you getting that? I got like 0.5%
Everbank
https://www.everbank.com/002rates.aspx
BIG BULL TRAP !!!
The market is ready to go down to 945-800 in the next weeks (end of Oct—beginning to Nov).
Sell shares in any rallies. Look for weakness and go short !
I started shorting first 20% today….
Joe can you share more info on what timeframes you are seeing … since not all of us have enough capital to scale ….
idan,
good morning…are you still holding XLF puts?? if not, i’m sure you had stops put in, when should one buy some? if its not going to make an IHS, and so it should reverse today, should i be buying XLF puts or GS??
whats a better bang!!
I had stops put in.. got out with about 16% profit.. i was up 50% at some point.. but you have to have stops for exactly this reason…
I think right now we are in a wait and see.. you can see that the volume is light.. i’m in no way thinking we short this market… instead GS above $140 is a buy in my eyes.
It’s okay to wait and see where the market goes next.. 110.00 is a shorting point but even then, you must have a tight stop..
If GS breaks down the $138 level.. i expect more downfall form GS… then you can short it.
BAC looks pretty strong
Everything looks strong are you kidding except ANYTHING that has to do with shorts.
yep…looks like we are headed easily to test the 100 day in the near future
I’m still holding my small SPY puts and waiting for a good time to buy more in the coming days, probably next Tuesday.
Neg Div on SPY 5 min, 30 mins is over sold, we should see at least 108.
another rig exploded in the Gulf. Its owned by Mariner energy
Well the USO definitely turned around… will be interesting to see..
Does anybody know how stocks work if you hold (lets say overnight) and there is a gap up or down over or below your stop.
Do the gaps cause a stop to trigger? I believe you would end up selling at opening market price (or there abouts) with a stop and probably end up not stopping out with a stop limit order.
If anybody knows it would be appreciated, and any practial advise is also appreciated. I’m concerned with actaul shares, not options. Thanks in advance.
This is how I understand it. Once the limit is triggered, the order becomes a market order, and it’s executed at whatever that price is.
thanks, and if you use a stop limit order, I suspect you wont sell.
My thinking too, unless the price comes back to your limit or better.
Take a look at a hard stop, see how it differs from a regular stop order if you’re concerned about gaps.
I’m not sure my broker offers hard stops (Firsttrade) unless that’s another name for stop limit which they offer.
http://chart.ly/uploads/mfij99d.png
hourly road map still intact
Is that the futures chart? Not sure what it’s trying to say because SPX is at 1085 right now.
There was a problem with TOS software a few days ago and once I update the software I lost all my important trend lines. very bad, now I have to draw again my important trendlines and see what is happening, but I guess market has printed a short term top, but I am not still sure whether we will drop huge or we will make a higher low. So after I draw my important trend line and also watching big boys I will find out, for now I am 100% cash. But in general if market keeps going higher to 1100 without any correction then at 1100 my grandmother who does not know how to read and write also would know that she should go short.
SWBB
amen
On ME, bought the Sept 25 puts and sold the 22.5 puts, cost 1.60, 20 contracts, profit potential 90 cents on 1.60
thanks Smyrna
Global Collapse of the Fiat Money System: Too Big To Fail Global Banks Will Collapse Between Now and First Quarter 2011
There will be a financial tsunami (round two) the likes of which the world has never seen.
Global banks will collapse!
Be ready.
By Matthias Chang | Global Research | Aug. 31, 2010
Readers of my articles will recall that I have warned as far back as December 2006, that the global banks will collapse when the Financial Tsunami hits the global economy in 2007. And as they say, the rest is history.
Quantitative Easing (QE I) spearheaded by the Chairman of Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke delayed the inevitable demise of the fiat shadow money banking system slightly over 18 months.
That is why in November of 2009, I was so confident to warn my readers that by the end of the first quarter of 2010 at the earliest or by the second quarter of 2010 at the latest, the global economy will go into a tailspin. The recent alarm that the US economy has slowed down and in the words of Bernanke “the recent pace of growth is less vigorous than we expected” has all but vindicated my analysis. He warned that the outlook is uncertain and the economy “remains vulnerable to unexpected developments”.
Obviously, Bernanke’s words do not reveal the full extent of the fear that has gripped central bankers and the financial elites that assembled at the annual gathering at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. But, you can take it from me that they are very afraid.
Why?
Let me be plain and blunt. The “unexpected developments” Bernanke referred to is the collapse of the global banks. This is FED speak and to those in the loop, this is the dire warning.
So many renowned economists have misdiagnosed the objective and consequences of quantitative easing. Central bankers’ scribes and the global mass media hoodwinked the people by saying that QE will enable the banks to lend monies to cash-starved companies and jump start the economy. The low interest rate regime would encourage all and sundry to borrow, consume and invest.
This was the fairy tale.
Then, there were some economists who were worried that as a result of the FED’s printing press (electronic or otherwise) working overtime, hyper-inflation would set in soon after.
But nothing happened. The multiplier effect of fractional reserve banking did not take off. Bank lending in fact stalled.
Why?
What happened?
Let me explain in simple terms step by step.
http://truthalliance.net/Archive/News/tabid/67/ID/5983/Global-Collapse-of-the-Fiat-Money-System-Too-Big-To-Fail-Global-Banks-Will-Collapse-Between-Now-and-First-Quarter-2011.aspx
Thanks roo,
Yes I agree
hmm…interesting article, thanks.
Woo, if you are around, the article you posted yesterday about the bots gone wild, really moving the market. Do you blieve that’s what driving this market? If so, my take on the article is that fundimentals nor TA can really work with this HFT. Funny timing as the SEC announced the investigation into the fake bids or whatever they call it.
or anybody else with thoughts they’d like to share
Cmon market, drop……. (I can hope, right)
One very weak stock that I am watching very closely is RIMM. Next week is earning and if we can see a fake rally toward 46-48 then I expect a drop after earning toward 40, but if we drop sharp tomorrow or Monday toward 40 then I do expect a bounce off 40~41 toward 44~45 before earning. So now you have my plan . do not say I did not say.
SWBB
Just so I understand, because I also believe RIMM is weak (or APL stepping on their toes), how would you recommend profiting from your valuable information. Do you suggest buying now to profit from the fake rally or do I need to wait, because as you wisely pointed out, it is possible it could drop sharp tomorrow or it could drop sharp on Monday (actually Tuesday I beleive, Monday is a holiday).
I am getting hurt in shorts, and I am too stubbern to sell at the moment, but I was looking to hedge the shorts.
It’s probably me, but I just don’t understand your plan. So should I buy, sell or hold, and when /at what levels.
Thanks in advance.
I clearly said my plan. PLease read it again. Now I am waiting to see which way it goes until MOnday, then at Monday I will decide based on my plan above that I explained in detail.
SWBB
RIMM doesn’t report next week, it reports the 16th of Sept, 2 weeks, current naked RIMM 42.5 puts which I suggested at 1.93 and naked RIMM 50 calls at .48. I will likely not hold thru earnings though.
what are these naked RIMM call and puts, please explain. and where you see that.
SWBB
instead of buying puts/calls options I’m selling them hoping to buy back at a lower price, basically shorting options not having the stock to cover
Sorry, I re-read your plan but I am still a little unclear as to when you recommend buying it or at what levels. Or maybe you are suggesting it is a short. Anyway, I’m just not nearly as smart as you, I can’t even understand the brilliance of your post. Guess I’ll look at something else. Thank you for pointing out this very weak stock. I promise not to say you did not say so. Hope you make big bucks with this, along with all the other people following your brilliant call.
I also should add that you should not follow anybody beacuse you may get hurt and lose all your money. Just listen to other and do your home work then learn risk managment and then trade and when you enter any trade from first second you assume you lare wrong and put stop loss the way you do not feel hurt, Anyway if RIMM drop first to 40~41 I guess it will be very quick and sharp and the bounce will be also very quick so let see if that happen when the overall market goes to correction.
SWBB
wow, so you’re saying rimm could go up or down.
very good analysis sam.
i’ll watch to see if you’re right, i bet you are right, it will go up or down.
i’m starting to see why zee loves your commentary so much!
AGAIN with ME you can hit the put spread 25/22.5 Sept right now at debit of 1.60. Potential gain 90 cents, see potential loss at 20 cents as don’t see ME going higher than 23.6
I don’t think anyone is doing any real selling until they see the # tomorrow…I guess we could sell into the close, but I don’t thinkso..I think they are expecting a bad # and will trade right through it
Will be no volume tomorrow, everyone gone imo. Not sure what that means though. Bots already gone wild.
I feel like I am watching paint dry.
Big topping candle on the 5 min SPY, let’s see how we close, if they want to hold into tomorrow or sell.
I was very much in the camp that yesterday’s ISM number was just total BS, after having seen the regional surveys. Rosenburg agrees with this position and outlines in exacting detail why this is the case… http://www.marksmarketanalysis.com/2010/09/rosenburg-ism-was-almost-certainly.html
On a similar note to #24 above, IF the article is correct, Housing numbers are total lies. (house of cards??)
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=165800
Hey i am cutting out for the weekend and heading down the south coast of Rhode Island to watch hurricane Earl..Tonight we have New England Patriots football pre season game 4 and a 18 pak of coors lite plus 3 pounds of chicken wings so you all know what i will be doing.I am holding no positions and plan to stay in cash until next week when we get some volume back..Have a great weekend everybody i will be checking the forums from time to time..Enjoy
sounds good, enjoy.
should have been a 24 of Heineken though
Sorry, warning, off topic – nothing stock related.
If you read the NY post, all last year next to NE patriots they had an asterisk. Below it said * = caught cheating. As a die hard Jets fan, I love it (they were caught stealing signals against the Jets and they were fined, etc).. Even if NY Post = trash, It was worth buying just to see that *. Jets fans do not like New England, nor their traitor coach (LOL).
Enjoy the weekend all.
J E T S JETS JETS JETS
3 pounds of wings, hope that’s not all for one meal Dave
Enjoy!
Watch the weather all you people on east coast. This Earl has potential to be the real deal.
FYI. still short
but not huge positions.
Thankfully lightened up before 250 point move up earlier this week. I was going to lighten up even more today if SPY broke and hold 109.20ish, but it doesnt look (yet) like that’s happening.
My trade is more mid term oriented. Even if I lighten up, I will hold a small core position short until (hopefully) SPY aproaches 1040 and hopefully below. I will try to hold entire postiition, unless I scream in pain.
IMO this market is still fragile and too many people ultra bullish.
I’ve know in the ST, this has been a bad trade for days. I was going to hedge some of it today, but I don’t trade options and I just can’t buy long stocks right now. Please don’t follow my trades unless you analyze and are comfortable being short.
GLA
It is evident that the stock market is being controlled by computers and sophisticated quant trading systems such as the the proprietary software at Goldman Sachs. This is at the expense of the retail investor and is turning our market into a casino.
Assuming it’s being manipulated, they are the rules we need to play with, assuming we choose to play.
Exactly and I use the analogy we are the casino players with $1000.00 playing against a house with billions who do you think has the best chances of winning? Answer: not us.
Robert, thank you for your honesty. Your not afraid to state when you take a loss. No one wins almost every time and your humility is appreciated. There are many others on here(including Idan and Woo) who share that trait. Good luck to all.
It feels like regardless of what the unemployment numbers are tomorrow the market will go higher. Still holding small SPY puts, may sell before the close.
Sure it will they are pushing into the holiday weekend green count on it. They don’t care how bad the numbers are they been bad all year what’s new. My question is how many more 450k-500k lost jobs a week are left? Even losing 400k a week is horrendous yet the unemplyment rate stays at 9.5? Pure BS.
EOD SPX will be around 1092 and SPY 109.50.
A 35% to 65% retracement of the 90 point decline gives us a target area of 1098 remembering that a magnet exists at 1093.
http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc4/hs630.snc4/59027_1409682087042_1382173957_1983679_3338758_n.jpg
unbelievable
Rest assured, whatever’s coming, it will cause maximum pain to both bulls and bears.
I’m thinking 1095 and change is the target…I believe it is the 61.8% retrace…if it takes that out…100ma here we come..but I can’t believe the big money guys won’t take it down when they get back…they will not chase this thing up here on low volume
Sold what little puts I had for a loss and I’m all cash now.
*******Mariner Energy****************
Due diligence is key, which I did not do enough of before taking that debit put spread for Sept 22.5/25. Mariner is being acquired by Apache. While I doubt I’ll loose much if anything on the trade I should not have taken this position at all.
Avoid ME unless speculating the rig explosion is something similar to BP which still may not deter Apache.
CRAP, week keeps getting worse and worse
HMMMMMMMMMM RUN ON THE BANKS IN AFGHANISTAN? READ THIS: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38976292/ns/world_news-south_and_central_asia
Remember they plan really bad news to hit when our markets are closed.
That’s one of their favorite tricks they play the sneaky bastids.