3:00pm
Eur/Usd charts have been really helpful in predicting SPY movement. Whenever Euro gets stronger (Eur/Usd up) then the SPY is likely to follow, the same for the opposite. Eur/USD showed a lot of strength before this rally… now it looks like it’s getting weaker, and possibly got it’s H&S formation on the 1 min:
10:59am
I had problems accessing the site for a little bit but i wanted to show you that GOOG is back above 460.. which makes it a buy.. if it can come back to 460-461 on a back test i recommend it as a great entry point with a tight stop right under 460.
10:06am
There is still a possibility that the SPY daily is forming an inverse H&S formation with a neckline around 113 -133.20… we will have to see what type of rally we’re going to get over the next few days to see if we complete it or fail:
10:01am
ISM data much better than expected… construction not that great.. but the SPY is now rallying above the bear flag area… i don’t recommend shorting here at all… 108 will be strong resistance, if we break that.. i recommend buying 108 on support of a retest.
9:44am
Here’s the channel that I see on the 30 minute SPY right now… it’s still a bear flag currently but it could turn into a full blown rally if rallied above 107.30 and ascending:
8:06am
Tons of data coming out between 8:45-10:00am including the ADP report, very important. Futures are up significantly, we are above the 106 level, but i first want to see what happens after 10am before i consider covering my shorts which i took at around 108.00 SPY. In any case, i would like everyone to look at Craig’s elliot wave projections below cuz they are coming to fruition really well.
First Post.
Something that might help. Seasonality wise, today and Friday very friendly for the bulls. Thursday and next few days after Labor day have a slight bearish probability. From
http://cobrasmarketview.blogspot.com/2010/08/08272010-market-recap-how-far-can.html
http://lh3.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/THraJ__V0vI/AAAAAAAAIck/F7BjXAD6CTw/s1600-h/holiday_labor%5B2%5D.gif
Anyway a question to take off from yesterday end of day comments. Does anyone have a list of the POMO days for September? I’m wondering if there are going to continue to be more POMO days and how big those days will be compared to the POMO days that started in March of 2009. (In other words how much money the FED has to pump up things with?) If you want to know what POMO means look up the last several intraday posts yesterday. Thanks in advance. I may not get to post anything else again during the regular day tomorrow.
how interesting is this
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10838483/fed-pomo-stock-market-pump-daves-daily.html
Thanks for reposting that link from yesterday. It’s nice to have everything in one spot. I was wondering if anyone had a list of any future POMO days in September or the rest of this year? I believe there is elliott wave analysis and then there are POMO days. POMO days started in March of 2009 and continued until early this year and that matches up with the biggest or one of the biggest stock market increases ever I believe. I don’t think that’s a coincidence.
If you have reading me you will know how frustrated I am this morning. I have said that the market is a thief and thatvit wants to get as many people on the wrong side as possible. The long term trend line has been the perfect vehicle to do so. I mentioned yesterday that I did not believe in the sell off, however in the last trading hour the market started trading below the trend line with a second candle. I waited until 3:58 PM to place my trade in what seemed to be a confirmation of the breach. Magically and I think even after the market close the candle went up 25 pts. Erasing the breach. Now there is massive rally ahead of us. I intend to close my TZA SHORT premarket for a loss. I will buy TNA once the market opens. If you think this is a free market think again. The action yesterday should be investigated. SEC are you there?
Hey Jrod,
Sorry about that .. Yes The players behind the market are so Devious , They wants to crush all and take everyone’s money bulls and bears …
I do enjoy your posts
Thanks
mark
You’re not alone. Same thing happened to my buying DXD…waited for confirmation of the breach to put in an order @ 3:59 and got burned by an instant $0.24 spike in the bid and subsequent AH action. I closed it out AH for a small loss in anticipation of this morning.
Tough to make what seems to be the right call at the time and have it instantly shoved down your throat.
What I`ve learned over the years is when I have an emotional experience in the markets, like a big gain or loss or feeling like I got screwed, I take a few days without trading until I can think straight again. This way the emotions don`t kick back in and cause me to make a bad decision.
good call on the switch. I hope you made back what you lost on TZA with TNA. Market rallied even more after open
JROD, I respect your opinions and professionalism on this board. I would differ though in jumping to TNA. Cut losses may be but I’d sit in cash rather than switching directions so quickly. Things definitely seem rigged. Find it very odd that at 4:13 I put in sell order for calls to open on SPY on the offer and get filled instantaneously. That is never good as the powers that be already know what’s coming and they are looking to take everything in. For example SPY 107 calls expiring in 3 days got filled at .63, and now will open around $1 but I’ll sit still expecting Friday close to be under 107.63 SPY. Also well hedged here. GL today.
FYi, still think selling OOM puts on RIMM here is safe. Would sell near term calls only over 50.
Exactly like I predicted. We’ll gap and go today. My target is 1100 on the $SPX in the coming weeks
Today’s a very heavy day – data wise.. be careful:
Motor Vehicle Sales
MBA Purchase Applications
7:00 AM ET
Challenger Job-Cut Report
7:30 AM ET
ADP Employment Report
8:15 AM ET
ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
Elizabeth Duke Speaks
10:45 AM ET
Richard Fisher Speaks
12:30 PM ET
Ida, Woo
I think that some stocks that have taken a beating like GOOG should bounce back and catch up to this market bounce.
I am looking at GOOG…do you like it here?..any other play you like that should pop?
thanks!
Got in GOOG
This thing corrected approx 12% from its recent highs of $505 for really no reason
I see it bouncing to $480-$490 very shortly
Allegedly there was a buy of 200k S&P futures contracts before the close yesterday… billions and billions of dollars. Aside from China PMI and Challenger job cuts, that is adding to the momentum this morning. ADP in minutes!
adp disappoints so on to ism….still wondering why china sold off last night?
ADP didn’t faze the futures a bit. Remember bad news is good, good news is better. any kind of good news and rally will continue look for today to be big up day. The train to paradise is unstopable!
As a matter of fact this shows the fed will need to step in and futures are lovin it up up and away!
we haven’t opened yet…will be interesting to see if they sell
Dollar taking massive hit!
Is there anybody who wants to thank me for my posts yesterday?
SWBB
Don’t feel bad Sam nobody thanked me and I was 100% correct on everything I posted. I guess they refuse to believe they not going to win against the Fed.
Thank You both
Do you trade for thank yous from stocktockers or do you trade for profit. Your calls are always ambiguous and you never give exact entries and exits before the fact. The fact that people actually listen to you is hilarious. If I knew as much as you think you know i would sit back make trades and rake in cash much like idan seems to do. You sit around saying how correct you are on calls you never make.
I’d rather thank you for this call you made Monday at 8:23 A.M. :
“Ok as I predicted way ahead of time the nasty support was recaptured and now we are bullish again. interetingly I sa thi sweekend some very good website are talking about the important support that I told you on 8/24.
Very important part is that I was full bearish and only one action deom big boys was enough for me to find out that I should turn to be bullish, now I am bullish. When I talk about big boys action people think i am joking while you see how actiions from big boys are important to capture big mpves in the market.”
Remember what happened that day?
Thaks Sam for the heads up,but i also noticed the double bottom on the slow Stochs and will stick to what i was saying….corrections dont start with reading under 20,that is when rallys start
Hi Sam:
I think you really noisy, noisy,
you never give exact entries and exits before the fact, ambiguous predict and noisy “thank me for my posts”.
Do something like mindthegap, idan and woo.
so are they selling the open? anyone?
If they do…it will bounce.
out f my BGU at 42.8
long some CRUS at 15.46
out at 15.85, for 2%
wow, monster rally and I`m sitting in cash, oh well. Will look for the next best trade.
where did every one go?…quite surprising as to what is going on isn’t it
so are we going long now? what stocks are we buying?
Everyone is quiet, because they are wrong…Everyone is bearish on this blog. Look at my post from a few days ago…told you we would be up big today.
I`m just in cash because I can`t make up my mind to go short or long. Yesterday before the close I got rid of my puts for a small profit because it just didn`t feel right and the 30 and 5 min charts said oversold. So now I`m looking at the charts again but they`re not giving me anything, I wouldn`t go long right now that`s for sure.
I think many here expected the rise. The question is will it hold? I am skeptical – it may go up a couple more days, but don’t think it will rise to the 1100 area – Maybe 1070 + – a little (just my opinion – which is against the grain of many traders). You are correct, posts increase exponentially when market is bearish. And I beg to differ this blog is bearish. One reason I really enjoy this blog is they are wiliing to alter views based on market. Look at Idan’s post at the top for an example.
I’m actually tempted to short this pop towards EOD, but IMO risk is not worth a couple of points.
POMO money is hitting the market as we speak. I beleive it’s 2 Billion the fed is infusing today, they buy bonds, bond sellers use cash to buy equities. This ponzi scheme is artifically being pushed up. At some point, the house of cards will colllapse once more. That’s more of a long term predication.
Todays trading action looks very similar to the action on a certain Wednesday back in October 1987. The ADP number was ignored because the insiders knew the ISM number in advance. Use all strength as a selling opportunity. The jobs number on Friday will not be ignored.
You mean the job numbers on Friday will be better but the market will go down or the other way around?
I expect the job numbers will be bad. If this is like 1987, the market will tank on Friday and crash on Monday.
Would you bet on that though? I mean to take a risk like that because if the numbers are as expected then the market will shoot higher.
My bets are more conservatively in October and December, however, unless the numbers beat expectations (and possibly even then) the market can still tank. If you are a day trader, you go long, if you are a swing trader, you go short. Down trends do not change on a falling VIX, only on a VIX surge.
However, history never repeats exactly and all my put action is in October and December, not September and crashes are remote, so the odds say there will not be a crash. But keep in mind that every crash is preceeded by a short squeeze and today’s action seems as phoney as a 3 dollar bill.
I agree Fri jobs #’s will not be ignored, and IMO they will not be good. I would expect a drft down towards Friday, but this market is crazy / fragile – anything can happen. I would think today’s gap up doesn’t hold, as almost everybody expects this is the beginning of the rocket ship up to the moon. I may be totally wrong, so I dont recommend trading this based solely on my opinion.
It could be the pre holiday ramp up.
Didn’t you post this yesterday?
“4- News are irrelevant. The market do not react to news, news react to the market because news are most likely already priced in before they are released. Initial reaction to news usually get faded.”
I reposted it, yes. I still agree in general. If the market wants to fall it will fall and blame the jobs report. BTW, that post was from pre-2008 crash I believe. With almost 10% unemployment, news supporting a “double dip” (assuming we even recovered) can move the markets IMO. What Bloomberg Radio keeps calling the new normal..things are not the same.
Yesterdays and definately todays news was ignored.
VXX putting in a lot of green candles on 1 min. We are not on DS’s stairway to heaven …yet..IMO.
I really want to scalp a short here, but I am sitting on hands.
I am thinking today could be a of an a-b-c up move. Initially thinking it would go to 10300 on dow…that might be low but I’ll just follow my indicators and see how it shakes out.
Things are not the same, you’ve got that. The FED is the biggest obstacle to anyone trading with a bear market, IMO. I reposted the repost as I believe trying to guess news or the actions of others is futile.
1077 is the 20 day and 1080-1082 is the 50 day so I just don`t see a major pop tomorrow or Friday taking us to 1100.
Idan,
I did see the inverse head and shoulder possibility as well as the h&s pattern too, which is why 1040 was so important…I saw one other scenario…could the H&S pattern still be intact if the 1095-1100 level holds?
technically yes… but i would rather it didn’t go that high… anything above 1100 turns me into a real bull for sure though.
Shorted AAPL @ 250. There is some announcement coming from them in 2 hours.
probably should’ve waited right before announcement time.
man I got long some AAPL at 249, 1 day chart looks nice
well that means at least one of us will be happy.
I’m just going by Apple’s usual trend where the market hypes up AAPL before an announcement and then people sell on the news.
But today is a bullish day in general and there are whispers of Apple opening up a cheaper streaming service… so I wouldn’t be surprised if we continue to rally on it.
Stops in place
lol in my best “Taken” voice… Good Luck
the 1 day chart looks like a stairway to heaven
looks like the 50 day (1082) is serving as resistance….if we take that out…were on to the 100 day (1109)?
1100 area is my resistance. If we break that I will be bullish again.
lol…aren’t you bullish every day
I have been bullish the last couple of days and making profits. Even last night when you were giving me crap.
giving you crap? lol…thought we were just sharing opinions…but ok
soo… rally is over for today…?
Wait until shorts cover at 3:30,1087 S&P I am guessing
Grady – can you elaborate on what you were saying for slow stochastics and what you look at ?
Thanks !!
Anjali,chart the S&P for one year with the Dailly Full Stochastics.Notice everytime it dips to around 20(in this case we had a double bottom,same as FEB 10,July 09}we rally from there.I could not see a big drop at that point.When STO move back up to 70-80 then we will be overbought and thats were i look for a correction.Hope this helps
Very interesting – thanks for sharing … is there a particular stochs setting that works well ?
I think they might have covered already….I think if we head north of the 50day we are going higher tomorrow….but I also think that this rally does not have staying power…when the big boys get back, no way are they going to pay up for these stocks….I think we have one more attempt to take out 1040, but if it fails, I am loading up longs at least into earnings…I think good earnings are required to get us over the 1130 hump…just my opinion
LOL…it’s like watching a suspenseful movie….you have to watch and wait for the end to find out….I think they push it up and end on the 50day…bit then again I haven’t seen this movie so I really don’t know how it ends
yeap… it’s hard to find a pattern… but S&P is up 30 points… ( normaly it’s shorting time )
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p25148426433&a=160222837
6 month chart.
The pattern is broken if we get above that trend line in the low 1080s.
I was wondering if you guys know anybody in entire world who can forecast the market better than me? I was the only one who went short at 1128. I forecasted 1128 as a top 2 week ahead . Then I went short and I covered my shorts when we touch the nasty trend support that I told you 10 days ago. Then after I saw support was broken with low volume and easy I found out that big boys are faking out, and said a huge rally to come. Is there anybody??
Below is my post at yesterday when future was down huge and before market open and when everyone thought market is crashing down, Please read carefully what I said yesterday at 7:43am. Is there anybody??
——————————————————————
August 31, 2010 at 7:43 am
In my opinion S&P is getting ready for a powerful rally in coming days,
———————————————————————
SWBB
still think you’re trying too hard sam. you gloat more than you post about stock. and people keep asking for specifics and you don’t give it to them. nothing has changed over the last 3 months. good luck though. you making money is the most important.
Woo, sometimes I just analysis the market. Although my forecast was correct, but I just bought a few calls yesterday after market close and at 4:13PM only 2 minutes before option close I bough only 3 contract SPY Oct call. I really was not 100% sure to put a lot of money. That is why I did not say my trade because not only it had any benefit for anybody but also people would said that I said after market close.
Now I am still bullish but I sold all my calls at 108.25 and price is still there. We have both 20 and 50 MA on daily chart and I do want to see a pull back then I will buy back my calls for better price. I like to see at least pull back to s&p 1065~1070. My minimum target for this move is 1090 if not higher.
SWBB
very nice trade on those call options =)
trying too hard sam. you gloat more than you post about stock, So funny and true.
Sam how far of a pullback are you thinking after today before rally resumes,1067??
done well !!
but what are your next targets for entry short or long ?????
Sam, you are the best trader in the universe, hands down. I’ve never seen anybody with skills that can match yours. You are simply amazing, every call you have made has hit TO THE PENNY.
What stock are you guys trading right now.. it feels like it’s going to be a dead day for the rest of the day unless 107.70 breaks down or 108.50 breaks out
I still like GLD. Been taking small bites of option calls on this here and there over the last few days.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p27132725196&a=200323870
Nothing big, but it’s less volatile than the rest of the market.
UAUA has been playing out pretty cleanly too
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UAUA&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p05197197960&a=192491148
I’ve been buying at each of those retrace breaks and using them as stops for support. If it opens above the next retrace tomorrow, I’ll be dipping in with calls again. Break under $21.40 is a fib and 50ma support loss, and will be the first opportunity for a short/put.
Idan, IMO the best thing is to wait for pull back and then go long. Market is at 20 and 50 MA daily so pull back is more likely, but i don’t want to short as I expect a move higher to come after a pull back to 1065~1070
Never said i’m going long.. i was talking specifically about GOOG going long but i think you might be right..
Hey Sam ,thats the kind info these bloggers are looking for,good man SWBB
Sam would you buy Sept or Oct calls?
Added 500 short shares to my existing GME position for a daytrade. Existing position held short since 20.69.
Oh, initiated the day trade before noon.
amzn above 131.10 is a long position
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AMZN&p=D&yr=2&mn=5&dy=0&id=p96835350693&a=181646175
but not until then. H&S could be dangerous and the gap down is really scary.
if this VIX gives again in this 24.20s area, we could see a good amount more rising in the market:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p60284825151&a=204018771
I’m thinking it should hold.
Can we crack 1080 into the close
Woo,
Someone here mentioned FTK yesterday. Looks like strong support in the $1.44 area. Can you take a look and provide a quick analysis?
well…the 3 year chart on FTK looks HORRIBLE…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FTK&p=60&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p66500982351&a=207584326
short under 1.36
i wouldn’t go long until it’s in the high 1.50s
be CAREFUL with penny stocks.
re-testing… 1080… i think it will faill… EOD 1065 ( i wish ) but can´t undestand this data…
data is mostly wrong or manipulated….don t trade data….only trade market reactions on data.
Thanks everybody for your posts. I did switch this morning to TNA premarket and I am doing OK right now (covering almost all my TNA losses). What has me frustrated is that I was of the opinion of the sell off being funny and even being right about it I still got burned. I mean it was really deceptive (1 minute into close they reverse 1 hour). The explanation of me switching sides so quickly is that I was never on the other but the burden of the evidence was making me change my opinion. Now here is what I am seeing…
In previous posts I have indicated that there are two levels to watch:
Level 1 10150 Gone with ease today
Level 2 10325. Can it be breach today?
Trading above 10325 is bullish and sets the stage for a test of the top of the wedge that I discussed about yesterday. This will be the resistance level for further upside. A break of the upper side of the wedge is extremely bullish and sets the stage for a test of the double top at 11200 which in my opinion we should see this year. Now failure to break the wedge to the upside will put equities into a lot of pressure and this time I think 10000s will not hold…For the time being I am very confortable to the upside at least untill we touch the upper wedge.
The top of the wedge can be constructed by running a trend line between the top at 11200 and the recent run up to 10700s two weeks ago. The trend line sits right now around 10550-10600s. I think the upside is at least 400 more points. If we test the double top the upside is another 700 pts…
Good old humble pie. It’s always better served, than slapped on your face.
HMMMMMMMMM and here we are at SPY 108 imagine that. Up Up and away on the train to paradise!!
Pullback into close??
NOPE
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=5&yr=0&mn=1&dy=10&id=p69461685728&a=181738042
crack…
not enough…
I will use any short covering rally at EOD to continue the reload of my put options that I started during the first hour of trading. The rest of the day was boring with no trades.
No way we`ll have a big up day tomorrow. I bought a small amount of SPY Oct 108 puts and will buy more if we gap up tomorrow. Payroll #s shouldn`t be so good tomorrow. With Friday`s numbers coming out tomorrow will be flat to down.
we might if unemployment #’s and factory #’s look good
kEEP DREAMING they not done slaughtering the pigs. EOD +275 or more. They made a killing so glad I dumped FAZ @17.50 and bought FAS@ 17.15 weeeeeeeeeeeeeee!
We`ll see tomorrow, you got your stops in?
THE TRAIN TO PARADISE IS UNSTOPABLE SPY 109 TOMORROW AND THEN SOME.
From the Trading Desk – Ah the Profound Meaning of it All
Fate? Destiny? The Future of the Economy? The Next Election? Noooo…
Fartzy’s head is spinning again. He was certain with September the great doom was upon us. He was preparing for the feast. Let us hope all here get it by now – WE ARE YO-YO-ING around 10k on a string pulled by big program trading machines, machines that care nothing about valuation and operate on a logic of fast trading and little bits of nonsense news to cue everyone in the game what the next move is. Usually the news depends on the last news and only must be slightly in the opposite direction to trigger the game.
The Fast Trading Robots do not need to know more than when to shift direction to get their little percent gains or leveraged option bites. Neither the Bear nor the Bull is in control now – it is all Robbie and his metallic friends. Up and down back and forth. If you play along you can win. You slice a bit off today with the 3% up. That goes in the piggy bank until our next trip to 10K or until a breakout happens. If we get another 2% you slice a lot more. The talking heads will explain it all in charts, and government figures, trends and history. Don’t listen too hard. It just is carnival these days and all we need do is follow the yo-yo up and down up and down. Just do not let it hypnotize you or you will get caught when the yo-yo man pulls a fast one.
the battle of epic proportions begins. please place your bets. MTG vs. DSA
I can smell the collapse now……. Its close folks…..
shows the EXPLICIT DJIA INDEX MONTHLY PERFORMANCE since 1950 . . .
September is the year`s BIGGEST PLUNGE MONTH . . .
“CRASH 2010″ happens in September 2010 . . .
http://www.chartoftheday.com/20100827.htm
Yes
Thanks Roo
appreciate You
As far as the stock market is concerned the weight of evidence now indicates the recent low at SPX 1039 will remain the low for the move or the end of wave 1 down. This low concluded a 90 SPX point decline from 1129. The market now needs to correct that 90 point decline. A 35% to 65% retracement of the 90 point decline gives us a target area of between 1080 and 1098 remembering that a magnet exists at 1093. This “down then up” pattern represents waves 1 & 2 of a larger degree wave 3. When this retracement concludes the big one (i.e. 3 of 3 down) is due.
Looks like a large h&s; woo’s robot article would explain a LOT of strange (IMO) moves
Roo I agree but not before we reach 1150-60 towards end of September
As said previously, cycle midterm bottom is coming in November.. Where will it be? Anywhere from SPX 900-1100.. After that it’s STRAIGHT TO THE MOON!!
P.S: Sam, can you be my fund manager? I want to be tons of money like you, please!!! I want to follow your calls to the ‘tee!!’ NICE CALLS MAN!! KEEP IT UP!! A+++ 4.0 GPA.!
thank you bears.