3:32pm
Israel might have found Oil in the Mediterranean sea near where they found natural gas last year. How significant is that for Israel, and what are your thoughts on how this changes the Israel’s economy and future?
2:43pm
Incredible market action here to the downside.. it’ll be interesting to see where we end today another test of 104.65 within the day will be very bearish for tomorrow.
2:21pm
The reversal time is here.. and now the bears are trying their hardest to push the market down with a H&S on the 5 minutes as the bulls fail to break 105.80-106.00.. a break of 105.30 is needed to confirm the H&S:
1:42pm
Everyone is waiting to see what FOMC minutes have to say.. even though we’ve heard Bernanke already… you never know whether FOMC agrees or disagrees. My guess is FOMC will move markets mostly because of a potential 2pm reversal rather than the actual news, but nonetheless interesting to hear what they have to say.
11:35am
We are going to get the FOMC minutes at 2PM today, that should be the last game changer for the day… it looks like we can break 105.80.. we’ve hit it 3 times in a row already… 106.00 is the next resistance but is not a strong as 105.80.
Second Poll of the day – How do you trade?
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11:00am
Market getting closer to 105.80-106.00 levels.. if we break above it.. i will cover my shorts (puts) with about 15-20% gain and play “wait and see” . Until then market is still undecided as to where it wants to go today.
Poll of the day – Are you trading with or against Idan??
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10:05am
Consumer confidence gives an additional bounce to the markets now in the green surprisingly more than expected at 53.5
9:50am
PMI comes in worse than expected, still get a rally off the numbers right as we hit 104.65 again. We are waiting for 10am, with tons of data on confidence.
9:38am
We are getting ready for 4th hit of the SPY’s 104.65 area here… I have my XLF and SPY puts both close to 50% gain right now… i’ll only cover if we rally past 105.80-106.00. I have taken profits before.. but i want to hold the rest for a break and a potential collapse in the markets. Dsavil and Sam obviously have the opposing trade right now and think we are going to 110.
9:32am
My thoughts currently are to remain bearish unless we break back above 105.80-106.00… there is no reason to be bullish here yet… we’ve hit 1040 three times already… and keep falling towards it… my intuition is to pile in short even more here.
9:30am
In the pre-market session the SPY hits 104.50-140.65 yet again. This is the third time we hit this level… i think fourth time IS the charm. We can very well break it today. We did get some good news from housing prices due to the tax credit, but lets see how 10am data comes out!
6:10am
Take a look at this EUR/USD dollar chart on the daily. There is a CLEAR head and shoulders formation with a neckline at .2750, we then fell below it.. and for 3 days we formed a nice bear flags in which we retested the neckline now as resistance. That was a perfect entry for a short. We then got yesterday’s strong down day, i’m guessing we continue down from here:
I’m going to go out on a limb and say tomorrow will be green, with a big up move for Wednesday. I’m predicting we are setting up a base here to rally higher this week. Nevertheless, I’m expecting a short pop before we crash in the next few weeks. It’s going to get bloody the rest of the year. We’ll probably get back to the 850-950 level before year end. Then, we’ll really see the bulls and bears fight it out. That will be the mother of all battles.
A WHOLE LOT OF NEWS AND DATA TODAY. Make sure you pay attention:
2-Yr Note Settlement
5-Yr Note Settlement
7-Yr Note Settlement
30-Yr TIPS Settlement
ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
7:45 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
S&P Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
Chicago PMI
9:45 AM ET
Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
FOMC Minutes
2:00 PM ET
Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET
In my opinion S&P is getting ready for a powerful rally in coming days, I was 100% bearish but since I see market is falling hard in a low volume it gives me clue that big boys are faking out, so I am not going short or long yet until I find out 100% what big boys are planning to do.
SWBB
usually if the market is falling hard on strong volume.. that’s the fakeout.. not the opposite way around.
Sounds good Sam,think we break 1100 by the end of next week
http://bigboysactionwallstreet.blogspot.com/
check out my chart. This was my plan and you know I was the only one who called market top at 1128. I said that 2 wees before market get to 1128 that 1128 is the top. Sure enough market went where I said and dropped hard, and I made tones of money all the way down to the support that I told you many days ago. Now one problem happened that made me doubtful about continuation of my chart and I explained in my chart that I am not convinced yet. The problem is that the strong support was broken so easy and another problem is that market is falling with low volume. Now big boys can not fake out for smart people like me because I will find out what they are doing. I am watching bib boys very carefully and I do not follow my chart that I posted in http://bigboysactionwallstreet.blogspot.com/ anymore until I watch big boys more and update my important chart.
SWBB
10-4 think we have one more shakeout at the opening then a move up.Full STO hit a double bottom exactly as in Feb and exactly as in last July 09 7 months apart and both times was followed by a rally, so we should rally i think for 10-14 days
Thats the Full Day Stohastics,we usually go down when they cross 80 not when they are under 20 as they are now,that is when you start a rally….we shall see
Ok Case-Shiller came in better than expected so look to see them spin that to take futures back to flat.
I see the day go green and rally for end of month then onward ho past 1100.
I’m obviously completely on the opposite trade of what you’re trading.. lets see who wins
Bingo again looks like I win DING DING DING!
Once the Chicago PMI and consumer confidence shows better than expected watch the market open green and not look back.
Actually it will open up and once those numbers come out then strong rally.
Dollar is tanking bigtime definitely green day today.
you are about to get hit realllly hard here.. you need to watch out.. make sure you have stops in place.. cuz you might lose 1-2% if you’re wrong.
BINGO I HIT IT AGAIN! TOLD YA LOL
you said 110…i say down to 101…
No I never said 110 on SPY in all probability will break up @ 107 though. What I said was in my posts and I was dead on.
Yeah you did… “I see the day go green and rally for end of month then onward ho past 1100.”
Do you beleive that their will eventually be a disconnect between the euro and the dollar?
still short and holding tight….
short 4k AMZN at $116.79
short 2500 fslr at $126.79
long 25000 vxx at $22.18
willing to hold longer but I think by the end of Oct I should be well in profits in all position.
I’m with you here..
Waiting for a bounce in the very short term to buy puts.
Chicago PMI 56.7 vs estimate of 57, now waiting for consumer confidence at 10.
I do not know about you but I do not buy this sell off. Market fails again to put a strong candle below resistance line…I am buying TNA again 500 shares and shorting TZA 500 shares…TNA@33.30 and TZA@38.90
Well, there is the oversold bounce. I believe we should see max 105.80, come one close the gap so we can move lower.
Once the confidence number comes out better than consensus watch it go full rally mode.
Are you still holding your shorts, or you’ve already switched to the long side? and what r u holding, dsavill? imho, the market has good odds falling today, the last day of the month. If there’s a rally in the near future, perhaps it’d be tomorrow, to kick off the new month with new money.
I played it perfect got out of FAZ @17.50 and jumped into FAS @ 17.15. Can’t say I didn’t warn anybody.
ding ding you hit again lets get 1100 by EOW
consumer conf 53.5 vs 51
consumer confidence rises more than expected = bounce
I don’t know…this is a pretty weak bounce off all news that is mediocre to better than expected…idan what level are we looking to add back in shorts?
105.80-106.00 is a good level to pile back in.. but make sure you a stop above 106.10-106.20 so that you don’t lose more than 0.3%… you can re-enter again higher based on Craig’s triangle formation.
Sam,lets rock n roll big boys lead the way
Unless this thing goes over 1055 and closes above I’m not buying any longs here.
3 failed attempts to break 1037,we now rally to at least 1070 by EOW,hoping for 1100
Still holding short, I don’t believe this bounce will go much higher, and the pattern seems to be drop retrace a bit, drop….I’m currently at ~ 40% short, balance in cash.
I’m with you here.. as long as 105.80-106.00 holds… i’m okay holding short.. otherwise i need to start re-assessing. The fact that we are holding around 1040 all this time is very bearish. The next time we see 104.65 we’ll probably break.
anyone have any outlook on YRCW? also I’m looking for a research report on YRCW but haven’t been able to find any credible analysis…. any suggestions would be very much appreciated
You can try this for some news, I didnt see any research reports. http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=YRCW
The trend line has been the key the whole time…It has failed 4 times to trade for 60 minutes below it…I am making up my losses of yesterday via TNA and shorting TZA. I want to see this market trading above 10150 for more comfort zone for the bulls. Yesterday I wrote that the two lines of defense where the long term trend line and the 60 minute 20SMA. The SMA could be the first hurdle towards new highs and this average sits at 10070 today…
You had to know the housing would be up only because they are unloading more REO’s and the prices are lower and the mortgage rates are lower thus buying has increased. That was a no brainer.
That’s very true.. but the market still dipped into the open to touch the 104.65 another time.
I totally expected that but once they spun the news the market went into rally mode. The money was made on the swing today. All the key news is our for today so expect it to stay green the rest of the day.
Remember a market has been made on all the distressed sales and there will be alot of money made by the Real Estate companies that are keying on these type of sales. Don’t even think about new home sales we already know they will continue to be down. There is a tremendous amount of inventory on the market with more coming. Now and in the next few months are where the deals will be made for some lucky people that have credit and or cash and they will buy all this up.
The bulls seem hesitant to push this higher, will dip into some SPY puts here.
Consolidation right now be careful,new money tomorrow with new month
volume is ridiculously low
Was yesterday too
I am not declaring victory just yet since the market is a meat grinder so far. But I have said several times that the market is a thief and that it wants to get as many people on board in the wrong direction as possible. The action on the last 5 days have shown just that. Bears and Bulls alike have been double guessing. Watch closely USD/JPY since our destiny is tied to it…
One more thing…The market is trading in a huge wedge (or diamond) bounded by the long term trend line and the two tops (11200 and 10700)…The real direction of the market will show up once we break outside this wedge. If you want to take a look at it send me an email: jnrodriguez2002@yahoo.com
Put in a bid for 200 SDS @ 35.25. I don’t believe this will be a blowout green day, in fact, my gut tells me another down day. IMO bullls are arrogantly bullish (no offense meant). Some bullish blogs already called the drop dead two days ago, eliminationg bearish EW counts. I don’t believe any of todays news was “good”, just less bad than expected.
order filled. 200 SDS @ 35.25.
I agree, there is no positive divergence on the charts either. I have no reason to go long. I’ll just add to my puts if we hit 106 today.
This is the second time the Stoch is hitting 50-60 on the daily, if it turns back down then it’s a good confirmation that we’re in a down trend.
Here it comes it’s hitting the intra day trend line on the 30 min SPY, 2nd hit today and rejected.
The Naz is in the red, fasten your buckles boys and girls, I believe 104.65 will break as Idan mentioned earlier. If they can’t push this higher even with better than expected numbers, then we’re going south.
I tried going long about 2 weeks ago, timed it pretty well. I was one day early, held TNA for ~ 3-4 days and I was up a couple of %. Then a drop out of “nowhere” turned it red and I sold at loss. I am not quick enough to trade long right now. I am much more comfortable with being short, as this is the trend until broken.
I’m not saying long is wrong nor short is correct. Just be careful longs, and IMO you should consider taking profits from this unkind market.
Exactly Rob I find the only way to make any money is on the swings and being very lucky to hit it as I was today. Hard to do but when you hit one it feels great.
Obama Mama speaking tonight,market will be green
The market always goes down when he speaks.
Actually the real positive news today which they haven’t said much about is the fact we are shutting off that money drain on one of the dam wars we been in for 7 years. Think of the money that was burned on that thing. Billions and billions!
Ok now here comes GS running back.
Overseas markets should bounce tonight,very oversold,new money coming into market on the 1st of Month
SPY hit that trend line and rejected again, but it looks like it wants to get over it.
SPY needs to get below 105.25 for more downside.
Take a look at FTK. I mentioned it to this board yesterday (I the stock had a positive divergence, did not go down with the market). Today is outperforming and is up almost 6%. It is a very inexpensive stock and should trade north of 2$ soon. In my long term portfolio (Roth IRA) I own about 4000 shares that I bought since it was trading for 1.10
I seriously don’t understand who is buying every dip, and then getting crushed (or so it seems). Woo told me a few days ago it’s bots and algos. I suppose they scalp a few cents here and there.
TZA just flashed green- even if it was only for a second. I still say red ending for SPY. May close some shorts @ EOD, depending on level. 1040 was not a confiirmed double / triple bottom….yet.
Any thoughts on RIMM, selling the Sept 42.5 puts naked here at 1.93. I know RIMM is in some trouble but company buy back and you gotta think at these levels a suitor would step in if needed. Think its a safe buy here. Thoughts?
Big green mama candle on SPY 1 min….
Good TA site for definitions, etc.
http://www.trending123.com/patterns/
Double Bottoms: includes probabilities and when they are confirmed (for “learners”" like myself): http://www.trending123.com/patterns/double_bottom.html
Looks like a bull flag on the 5 mins, 105.75 is not giving way though.
somebody is defending that 105.80ish.
Decision time is here, look at the symmetrical triangle on the 30 min, we either break down or break out. It’s a 5 bar triangle so I don’t know how convincing the break will be.
Looks like a fake break out, now 2 topping candles in a row on the SPY 5 min and Stoch has a neg divergence.
Here comes SPY 106. Anybody on this short better cover ya arses. Like I said the market is in full rally and unstopable.
why do you believe the trend down will reverse?
vxx off low of day and rising. I understand vxx on 1 min is very short term oriented.
So far today yes it has reversed. Remember bad news is good good news is better. It is the EOM and the bulls will push this higher to cut down on the 5% loss of the month.
IMO, good news and bad news is bull. Yes, it may cause jerks along the path, but this market will go where it will go. If the market was going down and news popped it, it will drift right back down.
EOM can have an effect on things for sure.
Europe mixed to red, this is after they popped up after 10AM US report of consumer confidence. http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/world-indexes/europe-africa-middle-east/
*shrug* still positioned short the market , long the USD. We keep sliding down overall and I have no idea where all this bullish sentiment is coming from as we utterly failed to get a really strong bullish bounce off the bottom of the DJI channel. We have now pierced it 3 times and recovered, 4th times usually the charm.
105.75 taken back down, this baby is going down, we’re going to have a red close people.
I got a little excited, we need to take out 105.50 in the next hour.
Market finding resistance at the 60min 20SMA. Right now it sits @10070. The 60min 50SMA which currently sits at 10090 has been the resistance line of this sell off since 10600s both indicators are approaching fast one to another. A crossover between them is bullish at least short term. If the market puts a strong bull candle above these indicators it could mean the end of the sell off (for now!) and a buy signal for the undecided…
volume dies @ lunch hour and bears take over.
yeah but it’s all about a break of 105.30 and FOMC at 2pm…
thanks for the heads up Idan. I probably would have been out to lunch then. Will take an earlier lunch today. All higher volume bars on 1 min chart in the past half hour or so are bearish, based on spy and vxx only.
You believe FOMC will drop this below today’s trading range?
LOL, I jinxed it, big volume green on spy 1 min. Not a big deal imo.
to clarify , when I say big volume, that’s based on today’s trading. Volume is light.
Not sure yet.. it’s important for the SPY to break higher highs/higher lows pattern.. which is still in tact, we formed a bottom at 105.40.. we need to break the low of 105.30 before i see bearish momentum coming in.
Funny, keep seeing H&S’s all over the damn place for days (weeks)?
The FMOC will mean nothing it is old news. The Federal Open Market Committee issues minutes of its meetings with a lag. The minutes of the previous meeting are reported three weeks after the meeting.
Not sure I agree. FOMC minutes could be market movers, especially while stuck in this tight trading range.
I think the only importance the fomc minutes might have will be if they show chaos and no clear unified plan, otherwise, I think it will be one more piece of news out of the way and we will probably close near 1060 area
A lot of head and shoulder patterns forming on many charts
Hey, I made $20 today on my SDS trade of this morning! That’s after (buy) commissions. I will likely let this one go towards EOD, or lighten up on TZA or VXX. I’m currently about 50% short … unhedged (my style) in trading account. With so much uncertainty in the market, I want to lighten up. I am still trading with an eye on a 1010 or so target, so I’m definately going to hold some shorts.
LOL, by the time it took to type this post (2 minutes) I’m now down $3 in SDS. (200 shs). Point is, market hasn’t moved all day. I suspect short covering causing some of the move up.
1010 target is for S&P 500. (My TZA up $6 now, yipppeeee – a free lunch)