3:32pm
Israel might have found Oil in the Mediterranean sea near where they found natural gas last year. How significant is that for Israel, and what are your thoughts on how this changes the Israel’s economy and future?
2:43pm
Incredible market action here to the downside.. it’ll be interesting to see where we end today another test of 104.65 within the day will be very bearish for tomorrow.
2:21pm
The reversal time is here.. and now the bears are trying their hardest to push the market down with a H&S on the 5 minutes as the bulls fail to break 105.80-106.00.. a break of 105.30 is needed to confirm the H&S:
1:42pm
Everyone is waiting to see what FOMC minutes have to say.. even though we’ve heard Bernanke already… you never know whether FOMC agrees or disagrees. My guess is FOMC will move markets mostly because of a potential 2pm reversal rather than the actual news, but nonetheless interesting to hear what they have to say.
11:35am
We are going to get the FOMC minutes at 2PM today, that should be the last game changer for the day… it looks like we can break 105.80.. we’ve hit it 3 times in a row already… 106.00 is the next resistance but is not a strong as 105.80.
Second Poll of the day – How do you trade?
Loading ...
11:00am
Market getting closer to 105.80-106.00 levels.. if we break above it.. i will cover my shorts (puts) with about 15-20% gain and play “wait and see” . Until then market is still undecided as to where it wants to go today.
Poll of the day – Are you trading with or against Idan??
Loading ...
10:05am
Consumer confidence gives an additional bounce to the markets now in the green surprisingly more than expected at 53.5
9:50am
PMI comes in worse than expected, still get a rally off the numbers right as we hit 104.65 again. We are waiting for 10am, with tons of data on confidence.
9:38am
We are getting ready for 4th hit of the SPY’s 104.65 area here… I have my XLF and SPY puts both close to 50% gain right now… i’ll only cover if we rally past 105.80-106.00. I have taken profits before.. but i want to hold the rest for a break and a potential collapse in the markets. Dsavil and Sam obviously have the opposing trade right now and think we are going to 110.
9:32am
My thoughts currently are to remain bearish unless we break back above 105.80-106.00… there is no reason to be bullish here yet… we’ve hit 1040 three times already… and keep falling towards it… my intuition is to pile in short even more here.
9:30am
In the pre-market session the SPY hits 104.50-140.65 yet again. This is the third time we hit this level… i think fourth time IS the charm. We can very well break it today. We did get some good news from housing prices due to the tax credit, but lets see how 10am data comes out!
6:10am
Take a look at this EUR/USD dollar chart on the daily. There is a CLEAR head and shoulders formation with a neckline at .2750, we then fell below it.. and for 3 days we formed a nice bear flags in which we retested the neckline now as resistance. That was a perfect entry for a short. We then got yesterday’s strong down day, i’m guessing we continue down from here:
Trading rules (copied from another blog). I actually checked back for #5, #4 is interesting too.
1- Maximize Your Profits, minimize your losses.
2- Do not over-trade. Be selective and take only those with low risk/reward ratio.
3- Do not use widely followed indicators and tools. Develop your own trading system and methodology.
4- News are irrelevant. The market do not react to news, news react to the market because news are most likely already priced in before they are released. Initial reaction to news usually get faded.
5- The market tends to reverse after the day of FOMC announcement
6- Do not hold double or triple ETFs for a long time, no matter where the market goes, they are subject to price erosion by design
7- Volatility can be your friend and enemy. If you know how to use it… If you don’t , keep your trading small.
8- Dont buy and sell easy trades, there will be more profitable trades among those the crows finds objectionable.
9- Always trade in the direction of main trend.
10- Be patient with winning trades; be enormously impatient with losing trades.
11- Bear markets are more violent and so also are their retracements.
12- Buy corrections in bull markets, sell retracements in bear markets. To do this, you must have a system to measure where exactly the retracement or correction is likely end.
13- An understanding of mass psychology is often more important than an understanding of economics. Markets are driven by human beings and opportunities for you to profit arose from their mistakes.
14- Your trading time frame affects your long term performance. Try not to day-trade. Try to buck big trends.
15- The longer term trends and their reversals are much more powerful then shorter term trends. Always keep the big picture in mind when you trade counter-trend.
16- Gaps are very important. Daily opening and closing prices contain more information than highs and lows. Especially weekly and monthly gaps posses extreme importance for the longer term direction.
17- Always use a scaling technique when you enter and exit a trade. You can never know the exact top and bottoms, use ranges.
18- Let the others have the last few bucks , don’t try to squeeze the final pennies out of a trade.
19- You have to maintain a steady mind set. Take some break after a sizable profit or loss, reevaluate.
20- Markets can remain illogical longer than you or I can remain solvent. Dont overstay in a loosing position, always have an exit strategy.
21- Tops take time to form, they are process. Bottoms are event, printed in short time frames.
22- Implied volatility increases near the end of topping processes. This can be observed from VIX index. VIX shows relative strength despite the market keeps going higher.
23- Implied volatility decreases near the end of a sell off. This can be observed from VIX index. VIX shows relative weakness despite the market keeps going higher.
very interesting. 4 and 5 that is.
Finally some action, I was about to fall asleep.
Beauty of a red bar here.
Here we go…spy red
\
lol. ToS is currently having server problems…I can’t connect or when I do, I get disconnected. I’m currently sitting in puts and thank GOD that the market is going towards the downside. I would be having a cow if I couldn’t sell my puts right now and the market was taking off to the north side.
I’ve been reading that TOS has been having issues for the past couple of days. I read on another blog (Daneric’s I believe), if you call and complian they give you 30 free trades. That was posted by a trader who claimed he / she missed opportunity.
I have been having issues with tdameritrade in general.. both TOS and tdameritrade today…
Scottrade works very well and have NEVER had any problems with it.
yeah i can’t even see my account information. lol.
The market is starting to breach the long term resistance line. The next 1 hour is is crucial…I am placing tight stops in my two trades longs TNA 500 and short TNA 500 shares to secure a + exit. These stops are:
33.65 and 38.75
If in the next hour we have a bearish candle below 10007 this is it for the bulls….
bear in mind, tomorrow is another POMO day. The last one scared me, but I held short and it was a down day. If anyone has any thoughts or analysis on what this means to the market, I’d be extremely interested – and I’m sure fellow traders would also appreciate any feedback.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/tradition-mindless-stock-ramping-fed-pomo-days-back
Hey Robert,
What is A POMO day ?
Thanks
check out the link (above in the original post), or googling would probably be better.
(for complete commentary follow link): http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/290-david-fry/88253-fed-pomo-stock-market-pump (partially cut and pasted below). BTW, even this didnt help stocks last time.
POMO (link: Permanent Open Market Operations) were launched at 10:15 a.m. POMO currently is an action by the Fed to buy Treasury bonds from, in this case, their Primary Dealer network (dba: Da Boyz). In this case Da Boyz get cash and stocks immediately ramp higher. A mere coincidence? Only if you were born last night. Further, per ZeroHedge, future operations like this will take place August 19, 24, 26 and September 1st. So, lock up your shorts and stay out of the way.
Thanks Robert,
Appreciate you..
When are the next dates after Sept 1st
Thanks
Lots of selling momentum here, would you guys not expect a big red day coming up shortly? This kind of selling on low volume is not good for the bulls.
If we close under 104.65 i expect the 3-4% day to be tomorrow… like i’ve mentioned before.. even if we close below 105.20 it could happen..
what stocks would you be short if we close below 105.20?
Short financials mostly..
JPM is closing prop trading desks
Good day so far, but would love to see a close below 1045 on the SPX.
i would love to see sub 1039 before the EOD =D
I hear you Woo, and hope so. As of now its looking like we’ll be lucky to close lower than 1046
Hey My friends Goingtoretire and Woo
How are you all ?
Yes another good day .. It seems like the market will try to go green wed, up a little before the weeken
Then Big tank — just my thoughts
could really be true.
i’ve been watching this blue 20 year trend line
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p25629858658&a=184607634
this is a lot of weakness to me, even though the selling is not so strong…
i think my finger is broken or dislocated or sprained. i’ll be getting a check up later today. this is what happens when you play football once a year…
No woo, it’s all the trading you’ve been doing
lol. i could understand arthritis, but a sprain is some pretty serious trading haha.
sometimes i like to not refresh certain charts so that it’s like the market is still sitting where it was a few moments ago…
Sounds painful
Hey AAFLC8/Mark,
Good to hear from you, and yes its looking like a good day today. You have a good theory about Wednesday being green, that could well be true. However I think we both like Idan’s theory better, which is a 3-4% down day tomorrow
Yes
I do to 
and Marke is down ..
Faz Is down
OMG IT’S SETTING UP FOR A SHORT SQUEEZE =O
i think i’ll just hold my position into tomorrow. or maybe i’ll sell half to lock in some profit.
What are you seeing Woo ? why a short squeeze ?
oh, i was just kidding. sorry, shouldn’t do that here since people might take it seriously. but it could happen, for all we know. we still haven’t broken below the 1039-1040 lows and people are waiting for a reason to jump into the market.
vxx essentially flat entire day
look at VIX. market hit $27.83 fib PERFECTLY at today’s top. If the VIX can top that one more time, we’re going to see a very strong drop happen on the market.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p33953568825&a=204018771
Is this the back test of the topping H&S? SPY 105.30 needs to get rejected.
yeah any close above 105.30 will not be good for bears.. but is not necessarily what bulls want to see… bulls want to see a close above 106.
Looks like a bear flag on SPY 5 min, if it breaks down we’re heading for 104.50.
Testing 1045 yet again. Lets break it again and close below
Watch the bulls drive into the close green.
lol. there goes the profits on my puts.
Another blogger I read calling out bearish Gartley continuation pattern…just as SPY turns green
right at the line
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p59654557283&a=184607634
this is just dirty.
Bingo right again! I’m on a roll today everything I posted was 100% correct. See how fast they can do that? Blink of an eye and you lost a boatload of cash.
yeah i stopped out for really small profit. i’m going to take a smaller put position into close though, and add as long as we don’t rise too high tomorrow.
let the good times roll!
alright i’m set for tomorrow. good luck everybody. going to run to my dr. appt. =P
Market is ending with two candles below Long Term Trend Line. I have my Bear cap on and I am buying 500 TZA into tomorrow @38.32. Tomorrow market can drop all the way to 9750 since there is basically no resistance from here to there…
Sold my puts for a profit. Not feeling good about holding into tomorrow so I can always buy back again is needed.
Wow, I don’t know how, but I sold my SDS (bt this AM) for a rediculous gain of $50. Limit sell order never triggered when sell price hit, yet execution showed up a couple of minutes later. Anyway, I’m glad it triggered. Still holding ~ 40% of portfolio short via VXX and TZA. rest of trading account in cash.
Don’t have that warm and fuzzy feeling, feels like I’ve overstayed my short trades. Will see in AM. Nice move in SPY A/H? Or my ticker is possibly “off”.
wow that AH movement was ridiculous…
Wow, a close over 10k, what a coinkydink. There’s no PPT, right? Right!
Don’t ya just love how the bell rings and the market is red SPY is 105.27 and then BOOM market tags into green(as I already told you it would) and then SPY shoots up to 105.73. Going to be a rip roaring day tomorrow. Everytime a loss of 3-4% is spoken of the ugly dragon rares its back up and rips your heart out…………..again.
Good call today – can you share what you look at to make the forecast … always good to learn
BTW – remember the falling channel line I was talking about yest – we tagged it at the low this am ….
That we did but with this volitile crazy market anything can happen and does. I look at several things including DXY, XLF, SPY, GS, charts etc not to mention a feel I have from watching what goes on every fricken day.
Poetry, from Zero hedge. Funny quotes about sh1t Storm.
Victory For The Fed As 10K Holds; Volume Surges On Unchanged Market
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/31/2010 15:08 -0500
After Hours
In a day in which volume surged to one of the highest total days in all of August, if not the summer, the FRBNY’s Brian Sack can claim victory: Dow closed above the ridiculous 10K level, which for some ungodly reason everyone in the administration sees as the Maginot line of the depression. And despite the spike in volume, the market closed virtually unchanged on the day, even as futures go nuts after hours where it has once again become a felony to sell or put on shorts. Confirming that the market is totally, irrevocably broken, the HY index closed at the day’s wides, as futures closed at the highs. Calling this robotic farce a shitshow is an insult to shit and to show. And will somebody please turn off the “buy everything” program currently raging in the AUDJPY. We got the memo: the FRBNY is in charge.
So true, so true!!