2:58pm
SPY 1 minute descending channel right now:
1:01pm
GS continues to fall here just as we predicted. Even $140 didn’t form any support, it formed resistance (consolidation) and opportunities to go short for some more downside. I see GS going to new lows and hitting $120 very very soon. $140 should have held if GS were to try and make new highs anytime soon. Here’s the 1 hourly:
10:53am
The market (SPY) saved itself at 106.40 allowing for another rally to take over… if we break 106.40 though, it might be a good shorting opportunity.
10:28am
SPY 10 minutes looking like it could be starting to lose steam. If the market were to really rally, it would need to find support at 106.40 by the end of the next 10 min candle. Otherwise we fall to 106, if we fall below 106 we are due to hit 104.65 again. Here are the two support levels:
6:12am
Futures are now flat after being up almost 1% earlier today. Even though friday looked like a great bottoming candle with 2 nice 10 minute candles closing right around my infamous 104.65 area. The futures action so far also looks like a topping candle. It’s hard to say where we’re going to go this week, this week is usually low on volume but high on data, and can be VERY volatile.
Todays most important news comes at 8:30 am - Personal Income. After that the whole day we won’t have any significant news, which means that personal income will dictate the mood today as well as the charts.
Usually with low volume the market will have great chances to be manipulated so beware.
Idan/Woo, what is your view on GOOG?
unless it gets back above 460 it’s still likely to fall to new lows around the 400 level.
thx
On 08/24/2010 when everyone thought market is breaking down huge I posted the below message in my blog and I predict the fake break and the rally exactly what you saw Friday. Just read a part of my post below that posted on 08/24
—————————————-
My post on 08/24
we may see a fake break down, that means big boys continue selling off and when everybody think OK now that line is broken lets go and get in , and then big boys punish them and reverse and capture the nasty support (in this case market will become very BULLISH).
—————————————————–
Ok as I predicted way ahead of time the nasty support was recaptured and now we are bullish again. interetingly I sa thi sweekend some very good website are talking about the important support that I told you on 8/24.
Very important part is that I was full bearish and only one action deom big boys was enough for me to find out that I should turn to be bullish, now I am bullish. When I talk about big boys action people think i am joking while you see how actiions from big boys are important to capture big mpves in the market.
SWBB
Hey Sam,
Thanks .. Ok how high does the Big Boys want to take this Market ? Spx 1075 ?
I think the first target is around 1175, if we close above that then big boys will push for 1100. I will inform you based on action from big boys.
SWBB
I think you mean 1075 and then 1100, right?
yes your are right, but market is strange yet to me. I do not want to go long yet and need to see more confirmation from big boys.
SWBB
does anyone know when china’s pmi is out? tues morning? wed morning? i think they have a lot of important data this week too that will effect us
———– PWER ———— Chart looks great i think this stock goes to $13.00 current price $10.50
I bought a small position 200 shares just for fun. I agree that the chart looks good and we might have a top break out on this one…
Thanks for bring it to my attentiion
Here is one cheap stock that I have been tracking for a while…
FTK….It could explode north of 2$ at any moment…
Thanks for that pick…
More on PWER—- Check out video
http://baronkimble.com/b.php?b=2wj2s3j10i
Steve Place on stock twits brunch live every Saturday lovesd this stock and he is pretty conservative..The stock picks comes in at the 47 minutes into the video so you need to advance it to
that point but let it play for a while first…
http://www.stocktwits.tv/stocktwits-brunch-with-steven-place/
The fate of the stock market is for the time being directly correlated to the USD/JPY. The news out of the BOJ extraordinary meeting disappoints (yeah right!!)…I have seen this picture to many times before where market spins the news as disappointing and out of the blue a short squeeze starts. Therefore I expect USD to weaken this week or the next and the USD/JPY to put in monster short squeeze rally. So that means stock market will rally with it. I will be very surprised if we break 10000 before the labor day break. So I am buyer of any dips from this moment forward…Unless major resistance line is broken with a respectable bear candle…I will keep this board posted if this happens…I am currently long 500 shares of TNA bought at 35.14
Good Luck…
What levels are you looking at on the upside JRod ?
The market should be supported by the following:
60 Min 20 SMA @10063 (first line of defense)
Long Term Trend Line currently sits around 10990-10025 (Final Line of Defense)
Any move up will be resisted around this levels:
Level 1 10150 (which we are currently trying to break and we have not done so)
Level 2 10325
I become a Die hard bull if we start trading above the 60min 200SMA @10388 as we speak…
For today the bulls will have shown commitment if we break 10150 and start trading between Level 1 and Level 2…
I am long the USD across 3 pairs since late last week. I expect like others a big run up in the USD/JPY, although I don’t really see a big upward move in equities to follow it.
I mentioned on Friday that we could see a pullback … however if 106.65 holds then shows mkt strength. If we go lower, then we need to hold 105.65 channel retest line …. that could set the stage for bigger move up to 108 or even 110.
I am adding additional 500 shares to TNA at 35.85 bringing my position to 1000 shares at 35.50. I have a stop at 34.50 to let it breeze.
We’re going up to close that gap at 107.10. I’m buying some puts at that level.
Dips my toe into some SPY puts for Oct 106.
If SPY 106.50 doesn’t hold then we’re going south today and tomorrow. Historically last week of Aug and the first day of Sep are weak trading days. I believe we should get a rally before Labour day though.
dipped my toe onsome BGU at 42.21
Bear flag on the 3 min SPY plus alot of bottoming tails as well..We either break down or break out lets see how it plays out..
My TZA is dropping a touch, but my VXX is rising a bit.
We are testing the first line of defense for the bulls the 60min 20SMA. I expect the market to respond to this attempt by the bears with vigor…If the bulls do not show up around here I might switch teams and help the bears push this baby down…As I write this note I am long TNA 1000 shares @35.49 average price….
I am firing another 500 shares into TNA right now at 35.15. So I am holding 1500 shares of TNA around 35.40
I have my stop at 34.50….
USD/JPY very quiet so this move down has no significance to me right now…I am inclined to say that we have seen the low for the day in the stock market 10072…Now I would like to see some commitment and trade above 10150 for a close…
Today’s gap cover is the high for the day.
USD/JPY showing some sign of life and so does the stock market…If you are short this would be a good time to exit the low for the day seems to be in as indicated above…
One of us has to be right today
I may cover my shorts around 106 but I could see SPY as low as 105.80 today but I’m pretty sure we’ve seen the high of the day and now we’re back in that 5 min down channel.
I also have my net below my position in case I am wrong…But I have strong indications that we are moving up…
Dear Bears,
This is not a drill…Please follow orderly to the nearest exit sign. Failure to comply with this alarm could cause you to unnecessarily burn part of your portfolio…
Honestly,
A Bull
EUR/USD getting hurt… my guess is to hold, even if you’re a bear or a bull. The market is undecided still.
I agree and as long as the dollar is staying up we are good. Only problem right now is the TV president is giving a pep talk for all his crap. Stay tuned.
although I am bullish but do not want to take any long since I need more confirmation from big boys. It looks like to me that big boys are still angry and they may start selling off again, so I remain in cash for now. There is one probelity that big boys want to print a very bearish monthly monthly candle, so in this case i do not see any rally coming until Agust is done.
This is a very important message from me that you may not find anywhere else
SWBB
So much for the pep talk they not buying it look to see lower lows before day is done.
Sam,
I think you could be onto something…The market was disappointed on the BOJ news…If you remember similar situations during the stimulus and Euro crisis the market did not react positive immediately to the news and about two- three weeks after the short squeezing began. I am waiting for a break of the long term support as an indication that we could sell off until election day and then…We get the massive short squeeze. For the time being I have to keep playing upside until I see a break of major support…
I reject your view 100%
SWBB
Is this your opinion or Big Boys?. If it yours I do not care but Big Boys I do care…
By the way my note above that says dear Bears could be changed to bulls…We are trading below the first line of defense which is the 60 minute 20SMA. The next line of defense is long term support around 10000-10025 (today) and after that we have breached the rally and I can call a bear market again…I will stand fast to close my longs at any sign of this happening since the move can be fast and furious…
Sam we need your help!!
SWBB and look at item 20
60 Minute 20 SMA is being defended dearly. If this SMA goes I think we will breach the long term support. My TNA long has a stop at 34.50 exactly.
Did you get stopped out ????
Thanks JROD! I blindly bought 1000 TNA @ 34.55 and went to the bathroom and now it’s $34.94!
and stopped out @ 34.70. Damn trailing stops =/
Took a profit by dumping another September put. Only 1 more left in Sept.
Good call Jeff, I just took a little more profit as well, although I think we could very well close lower than this.
I sold my last September put at 4:15 just as the option market closed. Now I am on to October and December puts. Much inventory remains for the big drop and sufficient cash has been raised to promote my options should we rise. Its good to see you taking profits and taking control of the market, rather than iletting it take control of you.
Selling all your September puts sounds like a good call.
Thanks buddy, yeah, I’m trying to take profits more often than I used to. Like you however, I’m still holding nearly 50% short and the rest cash. I’ll be looking to add more short positions over the next couple weeks, as I’d like to be at least 70% in when we see the huge downward move we’e both expecting. Thinking I might add if we can break 1045 and hold below there for a while, and then when we break 1000 and hold below there for a while.
Tomorrow should be interesting
Sold my SPY puts as 30 mins looks oversold at 105.80 I may buy them back again if we back test 106.30-106.50, which I highly doubt.
My TNA position is still open…My stop hasn’t triggered just yet…Why I have no clue because is at 34.50 exactly…
Bought back SPY Oct 105 puts for a better price, I really think we’ll see another red day tomorrow.
105.80 should break now, unless we go down another 1% in the next 50 mins I’ll be holding the puts into tomorrow.
Sam, are your bigger boys bigger than GS, who is calling for SPY 950?
For someone who likes to dawg others, I won’t say anything about your ‘SPY’ 950 target.
lol, 950 is not mine, GS’s. And my apologies again Zee (I apologized a few days ago but I dont know if you saw it). I had you confused with Exaultedangel (miss spelled). My question to Sam, btw was not meant as a taunt. I was asked to tone it down w/ Sam, which I did. I will not apologize to Sam however. He started with insults, holding back charts etc, and he got less than he deserves IMO. Enough said about that, water under the bridge to me. He was the only poster I have ever read on this site calling anybody with a different call than him a child, and the only one here I ever read insulting peoples mothers.
Now back to the fun.
SPY 950 = SPX 9500
That’s what I meant. SPY is the ETF.
Robert_Tax_CPA, I did not ask you to apologize. The other day the only reason I did not answer your craps was because of woo and Idan. I do respect these guys, but you no, It is more than easy for me to send you back the craps you said and send much worse than them to all your family and you, but I did not do that because I want to respect this community and the owner of this community, otherwise I would have given you what you deserve,
SWBB
Stopped out of TNA at 34.48 for a decent loss north of 1000$
that’s exactly what i was warning you… today did not look like a great rally day… after 106.40 broke i went short again.
anyone have any news articles on YRCW? maybe an analysis from a major firm? TIA
$NFLX @jimcramer called it cheap yesterday.. just a reminder: He called $YRCW a buy at 6
(from another blog) – I was reading it’s all in rumors, other prevalent commments…pump and dump, POS.
Disclosure I know nothing about this stock, just rehashing comments.
Excellent day so far, but afraid we might see a bounce either in this next half hour or tomorrow, so I have sell stops set tight just above where we are right now which is SPX 1053 at the moment.
The only immediate resistance is 105.50 in the short term and I believe we’ll see the market gap down over it tomorrow morning.
mind the gap,
Tat would be great, I really hope that happens tomorrow
This market is very difficult IMO. I was sure I was f-ed holding short over weekend, now I have to decide whether to bail with insignifant losses or let it ride. Leaning towards holding TZA and VXX. GL All.
with VIX @ high of day, gonna hold.
to 1010 …….. ??? SPY
I’m in exactly the same position. Set tight stops is what I just did, however a big gap up and go could screw me
And a big gap down would be nice. I actually like that most people are bullish, but it does make holding short more uncomfortable.
Robert_Tax_CPA,
Agreed on all points my friend
Niiiiiiice finish
Oh yeah! Shortelicious!
Absolutely
This was a controlled sell off. The long term trend line sits right at 10000 today @4:00 PM!!!. Very ambigous close and we can gap down or bounce so all bets are off…
Looks like nearly all the upward movement from Friday has been taken back, in one day. A very bearish sign I would say, but still doesn’t count out a small rally tomorrow and or Wednesday.
No rally my friend, with all that selling at the close this will go into tomorrow’s open. I believe we should see 104.50 tomorrow.
That would be great, but I would hate to close right at 104.50, 104.30 or 104.20 would give me more confidence
Hey My Fiends
thanks
Nice Day – Let’s See more down
Like the game show Host Says ” come on down ”
Have a Blessed day
mark
Hey Mark,
Nice to hear from you, and glad we both had a great day. Thinking we might get slightly whipsawed at some point this week, but by closing bell Friday we’ll be looking very good
Hmm. Currency positions broke even today thx to my over-betting the USD/JPY rise a bit to much canceling out my profits on my other dollar longs. Equities… well heck I’m with you guys, we ended right on the bottom of the DJI channel basically, though the XLF is sorta in limbo between neckline and last stand land. Need XLF to get below 13.28 before I start feeling comfortable holding my short on the sector longer term.
The important of my analysis is that even though I was 100% wrong this morning by being bullish, but I did not lose a penny. I posted around noon while market was down just 5 point that market looks strange and big boys are angry and may start a sell off , sure enough big boys did what I was anticipating. Now I guess tomorrow we will be having a small rally toward 1055 on s&p and the rally will tell us exactly what big boys are planning to do, then we will follow them
SWBB
I like green spikes on VXX at the close. Below are the events that may move markets this week. Looks like some things that can really move things. Investor sentiment, hmmmmmm…….. Case Schiller…..HMMMMM
Wednesday Sep 1 Thursday Sep 2 Friday Sep 3
Market Focus »
2-Yr Note Settlement
5-Yr Note Settlement
7-Yr Note Settlement
30-Yr TIPS Settlement
ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
7:45 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
S&P Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
Chicago PMI
9:45 AM ET
Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
FOMC Minutes
2:00 PM ET
Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET
WEDNESDAY
Motor Vehicle Sales
MBA Purchase Applications
7:00 AM ET
Challenger Job-Cut Report
7:30 AM ET
ADP Employment Report
8:15 AM ET
ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
Richard Fisher Speaks
12:30 PM ET
Weekly Bill Settlement
Chain Store Sales
Monster Employment Index
6:00 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Productivity and Costs
8:30 AM ET
Sandra Pianlto Speaks
9:05 AM ET
Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET
Pending Home Sales Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
6-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
3-Yr Note Announcement
11:00 AM ET
10-Yr Note Announcement
11:00 AM ET
30-Yr Bond Announcement
11:00 AM ET
10-Yr TIPS Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
Dennis Lockhart Speaks
10:00 AM ET
ISM Non-Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
All that can be seen right here. Would have saved you alot of typing lol. http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar/
forgot, tomorrow end of month…
Repost: from another blog: Sry it’s “late”…
Stocktraders Almanac interesting fact: Aug nxt to last trading day up only twice in 13 yrs. $ES_F now 2 out of 14
Another interesting repost from another trader, CarlFutia
$ES_F The ES drop today has slightly exceeded the Thurs-Fri drop. Strength above 1050 tomorrow would be bullish. Else a drop to 1010-25
I must confess that I was 100% wrong today…The close can not be read but bearish by making new lows for the day. The second line of defense is only 10 points away….So this could mean that we gap below it or we do not….The close was as ambigous as you can have…
We need to fill that gap up from SPX 950-980.. didn’t any of you think it was strange when we broke upwards in 09 that they was no resistance from 950-984?
Makes sense to me, like to see it before September is over. You think that will happen?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p92275005525&a=184607634
break into close. as rob posted in comment 43…
that line needs to be regained at open…or watch out.
I’m thinking we get a 3-4% down day very very soon… today’s slow and sustainable sell off makes me feel there is more to play here…. Unless we regain 105.80 i think 101 + will be hit by the end of the week.
I’m with you 100% on that Idan. Guessing that the market gaps down big like 2%, and then continues down 2% more when that happens.
Market is very decided to keep crashing here… unless 105.80 is regains, bears win.
still got my apple puts..hope you’re right.
Man, I can’t believe it. I put in a sell order for my puts for a $4 on the SPY Oct 105. It wasn’t filled up to market close, but I forgot that they trade until 4:15 and so what do you know…my sell order filled at 4:14 for $4/contract. It’s a nice gain but I really think we’ll gap down tomorrow. Oh well, at least it was a winner so I’m all in cash now.
Pattern seems to be drop, move up a little, drop, move up….rinse….repeat….