1:40pm
Right now we are waiting for the 107.40 level to break on the SPY… A break of that level will make me bearish and i’ll short some at 107.35. Here’s the SPY 1 minute, showing 107.40 as the most important level before bears (on the intraday action) push the market down.
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10:57am
Even though the SPY is flat after being up around 1% earlier today, the day is not bearish yet. We need to break down the 50 SMA 10 minute which coincides with 107.40 support. Only then can i be bearish and expect a lot more down to come.
10:24am
Market falling back down to fill in that gap, this doesn’t look good. Financials moving into negative territory…
10:06am
AAPL is getting ready to break $250 right now, a trendline that i said was semi-important to watch. A break of it will shove it to $247 (gradually decline). A break of $247 will mean we go to $243, a break of $243 will mean the bull market for AAPL is over.
9:37am
GS fell 1% from open for some reason.. it looks like it’s recovering after hitting 147 and change… A break of 146 for GS would mean the end of the rallying in my book.
9:19am
We are waiting for a slightly higher market open (off the highs though) and with no volume today could end up, but you have to be careful, i don’t support going long until 1085 or even 1100 are broken. While i still believe we are in neutral territory, we made a new short-term low on friday, and if we break 1060 i think the real selling can begin. I am holding some XLF puts and will take them off if we break 1100, but for now i feel like i’m on the right trend. Here is the SPX 4 hourly.
Leave your trades below, Idan bought XLF sept puts on thursday/friday what are your thoughts on the financials?
As I said last week Friday I sold 60% of my short with a nice profit as I loaded my shorts around S&P 1128. As soon as I posted on Friday that I sold 60% shorts market start going higher as I was expecting. Now I still hold my 40% shorts and hoping a nice drop to come soon and I have my stop for the remaining of short around 1100. Yesterday I posted a chart that shows what I am expecting to happen in the market and I explained my thought, you can check my chart out at this address: http://bigboysactionwallstreet.blogspot.com/
SWBB
Thanks Sam,
thanks sam. i like this tone MUCH better. are you just holding SPY or have you seen any particular stocks that you prefer shorting?
Yes I just hold 4 Oct 110 put contracts on SPY. I am looking to go long on FSLR and also GLD if I see pull back but I am still bearish in the market and am very causion on going long.
SWBB
I like the potential on FSLR
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FSLR&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p54820206258&a=195865936
The trend line and ma’s held, and if this stays on track we may finally get a breakout north. Still a good amount of resistance up top, but this is definitely one of the stocks I am keeping my eye on.
GLD is also battling a longer term trend line, but a little under it. I lost a small amount of money on GLD calls last week because I couldn’t wait for it to get back above the trend line and didn’t want to risk the drop. Will look for another opportunity to get back in.
GL
This week is going to be FULL of data. But today is a relatively light volume data day. Tomorrow-Friday will be ridiculously busy!
4-Week Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
30-Yr TIPS Auction
1:00 PM ET
Where do you begin to become worried about being short Idan? I’ve heard a push over 1085 starts to invalidate this latest move.
Nah, like sam said, it has to be over 1100.
Sam that is a very well written piece. Welcome to the club. I have already bookmarked your blog and will follow you dilligently
Existing home sales tomorrow should be interesting. I believe consensus is down about 16%. GS is looking for about 25% down. I have found already that Cali is about 20% down according to data already out http://www.marksmarketanalysis.com/2010/08/california-home-sales-down-20-in-july.html
And Texas is down over 22% http://www.marksmarketanalysis.com/2010/08/graphing-texas-home-sales.html
Could see a number that is -5% to consensus… which I think will hurt the mkt.
Yeah.. Tuesday’s news about homesales will be incredibly important no doubt.
Any thoughts on the potential for Israel to strike Iran Idan? I certainly believe it will happen, but big question mark is when. Clearly that would be a huge market mover when it happens.
Israel is fully prepared to strike Iran… everything is planned out for sure, including the defense against Hamas, Hizboallah and potentially Syria as they will retaliate on the strike. But if it’s going to happen anytime soon?
I highly doubt it… Iran will continue doing it’s thing and Israel will only strike once they have concrete evidence of plans to start building a nuclear weapon.
that said, things with Lebanon are getting hot again that might bring some turmoil too.
I’d agree… whether it be as a result of the Iran nuclear situation or Hezbollah… either situation could end up resulting in a face off against not just Iran, but also Hezbollah and Syria. Maybe we should all throw on the Disco and get 70s as it looks like Israel will face off against multiple nations at once like the good ol days. Timing is tough to figure though, but I’d like to see an Israel of old that realizes they need to go it alone and stops hoping for Obama assistance with Iran which will never come.
Yeah Obama will never help Israel in these cases, that’s why i think the jews in the US might stop supporting him for this election…
Israel definitely knows they are going to be doing it alone, they just don’t want to waste 3 years worth of economic output to support a strike that might be premature.
What is more important to note, is the inefficiency and ineffectiveness of the UN to do jack shit YET AGAIN.
it will not happen as long as i’m long oil.
i’m currently long oil.
i’ll let you all know when i sell.
a strike will happen the next day.
Good morning everybody. I feel the SP will hit 1084 today easily and will hold. What do you guys think? Bought 10K TNA in premarket this morning.
BMO Capital Markets:
After a sharp sell-off in early trading, stocks rallied steadily throughout the
day, recovering most if not all of their early losses. We wouldn’t classify
Friday’s price action as a “reversal day” in the traditional sense though. First
of all, in downtrends reversal days usually occur at the end of a persistent
move and usually signal an “all in” move as investors dump stocks en
masse. (The early February 2010 low is a good example of a reversal day.) So
far, the major averages are only down 5% or so since the early August peak,
which hardly classifies as a persistent decline. Second, volume was
extremely light with just over 4 billion NYSE Composite shares traded on
Friday. We would expect to see volume well in excess of 6-7 billion shares if
this were a classic “give up” phase where selling is exhausted.
Nevertheless, there’s no question that Friday’s price action was positive. It
shows there is a persistent bid underneath the markets that is keeping them
from moving appreciably lower despite the continued deterioration in shortterm
breadth and momentum indicators. This is in line with what we would
expect to see in the late stages of an intermediate-term correction.
Is anybody else not seeing any quotes for SPY option chains?
i’m not having that problem.
I found out it`s my broker. So I`m getting the quotes from another site, thanks.
If you have been following me you will know that I was underwater last week with 500 shares of TNA at 37.00 (went down all the way to 33.80). I did not panic and I bought after the double bottom another 500 shares (@34.23) to bring my average down to 1000 shares of TNA @35.60. Today the market is rewarding me and I am green. I am not declaring victory yet. So I will be very careful since there is weakness in the air. I would like this market to be trading above 10320 with a strong “price” action (key word here is price not volume). Meanwhile I will secure a winning trade by placing a stop @35.75 for TNA. If we manage to trade above 10320 it is very likely that we are setting ourselves for a nasty short squeeze all the way up to the 11000s. I would like to see this short squeeze happen before going short. In other words I will start selling into strength. I also believe the eu/usd will trade higher from these levels.
My suggestion to you is get out of TNA asap. JMHO
I just got stopped out of TNA for a small gain. If we trade above 10325 I might get back into it…
atta boy market is getting ready to go south again financials are showing it watch that buck is is going up!
Did the conductor stop for a crap again dsavill?
Wouldn’t say that. Only thing that is true is he is in a bunch of crap. Another thing that is true at the moment is we all know the range. Let me preference it again so there is no confusion. 1060-1100 at the moment. There is no strong confirmation either way at the moment. If it hits the 1090-1100 then there is a high probability it goes up further. If it breaks 1060 then there is a high probability it goes lower. Just because I can read the market whelther it is Bullish or Bearish let me MAKE MYSELF VERY CLEAR……..PLAY THE DAM TREND FFS and don’t get angry with me when I call the direction of the market. THE BOTTOM LINE IS MAKING MONEY EITHER WAY. If you can’t do that then people have no business being in this game.
I`m with you buddy, hate to take one side for the sake of being a bear or a bull. Need to be flexible and make money both ways like you said.
Idan,
GOOG around $460 support levels…what say you?
A break of it, might be a great short like mentioned before. But it might bounce first before it breaks… wait for a 1-4 hour bounce.
The bounce can actually take maybe 1-2 days now that i’m looking at it.
Idan, What days do you do your live trading? The past few have been great, as well as giving insight to how you approach your trades. Your AMZN call was great to watch… Will this be a day to day thing or do you have certain days you do that?
It’s suppose to be a day to day thing… but i’ve been flaking out cuz we’re working on other things at the same time… hopefully Craig will take over the intraday commentary back at some point and i can concentrate on that a little more. I usually try to do it at 10:30am or 11am EST.
Awesome, I talk to myself a lot on the live stream so no need for any kind of reply, just randomly thinking and keeping myself entertained during this slow market.
I am 100% in cash….
Buying TNA 500 shares at 35.72. My stop is at the day low 35.51
Dsavill,
Have you changed sides now? are you expecting a big pullback or just a minor correction?
I’m still here with my positions in AMZN and FSLR. Bot 25000 shares of VXX this am at $22.18.
iknow my account currently is fully short but this whole market is running on fumes and it truly surprizes me if you have gotten off the train to paradise!
look forward to hearing from you and best of luck to you………..TIA
lLike I said last week bro I go with the trend. When the Phili numbers were terrible last week the trend changed. Like I said before I call it the way I see it and at the moment were are in a range and it is in a minor trend down. Until it confirms 1060 then there is a high probability to head further south.
Did anything trigger this pull back? I`m still holding my puts from Friday, I believe we`ll see 106 on the SPY before we get a nice rise into 1110.
Stopped out of TNA for a small loss…which offset the small gain before. They are really messing everybody up with this volatility. After three attempts with TNA I am giving up until final confirmation of direction becomes clearer. If the russell 2000 trades below 602 a huge move will happen. If you have TZA hold on because you can be rewarded big. I am still suspicious of this whole thing so I will be patient….
Thank me later for just saving you a lot of cash in my post #10 whew.
There is a very good chance we hit 1060 today and then will bounce from there. Remember guys look for lower lows and lower highs. This is a slow burn they will not crash it all at once. Make your positions gradual do not just jump in full bore. ONCE there is a definite confirmation then play accordingly.
We`re on the same page then. Today and Wednesday are turn dates. I don`t put too much emphasis on them but I just consider them as a side note. So we may bottom out today at 1060, see a rise to 1100 until Wednesday then drop again…range bound like you said.
Just for fun..No matter what your position is on this it is kind of funny..
http://www.thefoxnation.com/entertainment/2010/08/17/jon-stewart-rips-obama-mosque-flip-flop
Thanks … America was founded on Godly priciples -
is a Hitler
Obama – Mr Obama a nation
Almost time for everyone on CNBC to start YELLING LOUDLY!!! About non relative issues. Mute, Mute, Mute…
I’m still in my FAS positioned opened last week @ 19.28. I’m not concerned about the financial weakness unless XLF drops below 13.71 today. If it does so I will cut my losses. Till then I hold my position and watch and wait.
I do see potential for XLF to rise all the way up to low $17 area before a major pullback but I’m not convinced we don’t drop to the low $12 area before bouncing. Either case seems likely to me so I’m just watching the 13.71 mark to see what the market wants to do.
You know what I thought about that last week. I wouldn’t touch FAS until it gets in the 17-17.40 range (year low by the way is 17.40). Just do not be surprised when FAS heads even lower.
Like I told you last week, I have a stop in place if that happens. I see no reason for FAS to be better looking at the 17.40 range vs now. If XLF is going south then it should go all the way to low $12 range before finding support and I’m fairly certain that would correspond to a larger drop in FAS then $1.
So like I said if XLF pierces 13.71 I will switch to holding FAZ untill the XLF hits the low $12 range.
I think you are missing my point and being to defensive. THE POINT IS YOU GOT INTO IT TO SOON IF YOU ARE PLAYING LONG. That is all I was pointing out. FAS would be great at 17.40 especially when the market goes back up but whatever I not telling you what to do, do whatever you want just make money ok.
Is it a good idea to buy pit options on CLF?
Wait for a break of the 20 SMA daily at around 59.8 or so and only then buy those puts.. $60 area is too strong of a support for me to want to buy puts prematurely.
107.30-107.60 is a key area and if we get below or above it then that will decide which way we go today. 30 min looks oversold right now.
AMD — taking a stab.. at $6.14
In my opinion if SPY wants to close above 108 today that is bullish. FSLR look bullish but I am not in yet
SWBB
don’t pay attention to these fibs on this chart
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=9&dy=0&id=p41774618265&a=181956106
if that trend line breaks into open tomorrow…watch out. it will probably hold into close, but if for any reason it doesn’t. i am going short…hot and heavy.
We’ll also see if VIX holds that white line into closing.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p79369473382&a=204018771
Woo,
which trend line are you referring to the purple or green one?
purple.
if purple doesn’t hold…we’ll see a sexy drop.
Oh yeah, sexy is the way to go
, thanks for the heads up. Do you have a downside target 1060?
first major stop might be around 1055.
Looking for 1040, but I think that will break too longer term, if we head south here. I’ll be playing it by the day. Market has been disgusting.
my main concern is that we get opportunities to see these major drops and rises happen intraday as opposed to AH/PM.
Woo,
I am thinking the market is inclined to drop because I too think that purple trend line will be taken out
What is the best short opportunity…buy the SDS or the VIX…or anything else?
(I just buy options for short term pops)
thanks!
how long are you thinking of holding your position? the crazy thing about the vix is that it can pop 10% easily in one day. so if you’re looking very small time frame short position, it might be better to lean VIX. however, if you want to begin a foundation for a longer term short position, sds is a better way to start.
I’m still a bit uneasy, and can still see the possibility of some upside prior to a major drop. I’m probably going to sit out the rest of the day, and if i miss out on a big drop so be it.
Just bought some more SPY Oct 106 puts.
mindthegap – i’m in as well. good luck =)
same as u.
Well it held but the SPY edged down under 107.35 range still ambiguous as anything can happen. IF they paint the housing numbers all rosy (which we all know they are not) Obumba and CO. will be all over that like white on rice and the market will push back to the 1100 range. IF they don’t manipulate the numbers then look for a further drop to hit 1060 and then some. JMHO
A break below 107.67-107.68 on the SPY will shove us back down to 107.40… a break of 107.35-107.40 will cause another big collapse into tomorrow.
Looking like we’ll close in the red like I predicted Friday. No watch it end up in the green since I posted this statement a half hour early. Either way its been a good day for me and most bears since the russels and nasdaq have been down and will almost certainly close in the red.
Not extremely happy the decline has been so small today however, and will take a little more profit if we go down just a bit more here. I’m thinking we do have a bounce sometime this week, but that the week closes much lower than last week. I’m feeling we break 1050 pretty hard this week.
Hi my Friend,
but small it was change
How are you ? i agree with you ..
Yes You were right — I was wrong -
I Thought today would be green — Glad it was Red
Hopefully Tues big move down …
have a nice day
Hey there Mark,
Doing well, thanks buddy, the action looked good today huh? Your right, a lot larger decline would have been even better. Got a strong feeling we have have a slight bounce either tomorrow or Friday, but thinking Wednesday and Thursday will go down hard. Hope I’m wrong and the next 4 days are all down
Lets see 1050 taken out this week, and then 1010 this or next week!
I’m glad your with me on the short side, its nice to see good people like us doing well, and even better times are in store for us soon.
take care!
one month SPX break
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=5&yr=0&mn=1&dy=10&id=p38498430328&a=181738042
1 year SPX break
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=9&dy=0&id=p06070799763&a=181956106
VIX support
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p18225781051&a=204018771
bulls can still bring it back up into closing to save their asses. but that’s at least a crack on a number of levels.
moves like this without a strong strong break afterwards and market being oversold short term, always leaves me a little uneasy, especially so near the close of the day.
they can easily pop it above support during AH/PM. I guess I’ll take the risk.
Hey Woo,
Would you hold into tomorrow?
i think i’m going to hold into tomorrow. might regret it though. have a bad feeling that they aren’t just tanking this thing right now.
even if i hold into tomorrow, i might raise stops as soon as i see open and keep raising my stops to higher profit, trailing around 5-7 cents behind. don’t want to see any strong bounces, and am willing to get back in if we see continued weakness.
alright, i guess there is at least a little cushion with this drop and pricing. ill hold into tomorrow. good luck mindtg
position:
SPY oct 106 @3.63
market currently at 3.72-3.75
Yeah I held the puts as well. I averaged down today @ 3.42 so my avg is now 3.80.
We’ll see tomorrow.
Just took a little more profit.
This morning is good up and afternoon down. This looks like the similar pattern before every rise past two month. Tomorrow and following a couple of days can end up a green?
play of the day = VIX
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p18225781051&a=204018771
double trend line support at lows of the day in the 24.60s. Recovery into close and ended up positive. I missed out. Very clean and risk free trade.
Woo,
where do you see the VIX going?…the next resistances?
we could see another dip tomorrow to retest the trend line at 25. I’m thinking even if we dip, we’ll bounce back from there for the VIX to rise back above the 50ma, and the market to drop a bit more.
I’m still not completely sold on the market collapsing just yet. So this is open to change. If we dip below 25, we’re going to get more consolidation with the trend line below that trend line at 25.
Very nice Friday and Monday as expected. Took some profit, as I completely expect a technical bounce either tomorrow or possibly Wednesday. Now sitting at 50% short and 50% cash. Will probably look to jump back in short at least 20-25% on the bounce I think is coming. Its looking like shorting the rallies will be the thing to do for the next month+ as far as I can see, so that’s my plan.
Hope you guys made some money, and if your long please have your stops in place. Good luck and catch you all later
it great to know that Make up to 40% a year by subscribing to FE Alerts& Analytics it amazing………..
Stock Exchange
Market looks like it’s going to 800
USD/CAD about to break 1.06.. if that happens things are going to get really really really really ugly.
l
wow, i can post now.
all day my posts were not showing up????!!