9:30am
Futures rallied slightly right before the open, we’re right above 1070 now. I think the 1060-1070 area will be very tough to break, there has been so much choppy action there and random support levels that we will need to go through this very slowly.
8:15am
As long as you know the value of a VERY strong support/resistance line, you can make a lot of money, even if you lose some at first. Here’s my trading of the euro/dollar yesterday and overnight on the 1.2825 level that we have been talking about for a few days. Enjoy the first loss, the slight second profit, and the third trade in which i’m still holding short the eur/usd with A LOT of profit:
7:49am
Futures are already trading below the equivalent of 1070 on the SPX, this could mean that we are ready to fall into the 1058-1060 range. IF WE BREAK 1058-1060 we will get HUGE sell offs of great magnitudes 3-4% start. I believe 940-960 is not far off from being hit as soon as 1058-1060 breaks to the down side.
Here’s the daily chart showing all the levels of support with the target at 95.00 +/- 1.00 if we break 105.80 low on the SPY. Also notice that the 50% retracement of the whole bull market is at 94.60.
1st again? Cmon ladies and gents, let’s get ready to rumble. I love the smell of napalm in the morning (when I’m short that is). Out of longs in trading account, holding 400 faz long, 200 vxx long and nothing else. Tring smaller positions (buying 50% of what I’d normally buy as I feel “off” lately. I need to learn how to take gains better and not allow the market to take em back. Going to also look to further liquidate funds in 401k and put more in cash yielding 0. I will likely continue to hold long bond funds in 401k for at least a bit longer. GLTA
ps – I posted an interesting article on the hindunburg omen (or not) in last nights comments as I believe post on ho from other day was not completely accurate…article explains why there is uncertainty. I read. There MAY have been another ho yesterday
Trying to figure out what to buy if when big flush out begins. Perhaps vxx?
Hey Robert,
GoodMorning .. You are first again
I enjoy your posts
I am also holing Faz, Qid, Bgz and I am short only 135 shares SPG …. Also went short only 300 shares SLW — a gamble i think silver will tank alot more
I think the Etf’s short are the way to be -I think maket will take out new lows within the next few weeks if not sooner
Have Blessed day
Excellent action today Mark, hope your making some good money, we deserve it
i’m also thinking of getting more vxx.
is there any decay on it?
if there is a big flush out seems like this would be a great thing to have.
Good morning. I think the SP is going to have to hit around 1060 and then we move higher again. What do you guys think?
1064 area looks very important.
this should tell the story.
Got an interview at the Montreal Stock Exchange to make $50k a year at age 20.
If you believe we will see 11000 before 9000 you should buy here. I am holding 500 shares of TNA that I purchased at 37.60 for a loss so far. I have no problem with that since I have made a bundle out of it for a while. So perhaps is payback time!!. So I will add another 25% to TNA today to average down my position into next week. I still believe this is a big bear trap…Everybody is talking about VXX, Faz, TZA etc. So I will run against the wave and see what happens…
Might be good for a short-term play..
So many permutations it’s kinda scary of what can happen.. 10 year cycle peak, 3 year cycle peak, 1 year cycle peak..
this could get ugly my man..
2000-2010 (2000 top nasdaq + 10 years = 2010 1200 top)
2007 (mortgage crisis bubble + 3 years) = 3 year cycle peak
2008 (obama election) + 2 years = 2010 midterms
2009 = march 9th bottom + 18 months = 2010 october peak cycle.
I could go on and on!!
I want to see 950 before we bottom for the year!! stocks shuold reflect the 10-year!
I tend to agre with you. All the talk about diving to 950′s and bears so beat up they will play the emotions and end up with their hearts ripped out again. Take profits if you can. They playing on your greed. That resistance of 1060 is very critical. Don’t be surprised if it bounces off there and goes back up to the 1090 range. JMHO
Too many bears. I think we are due for a short term suckers rally. Then again, with only 8 comments on FE by this time on a down day like today, maybe the bulls got fed up and we are the last men standing, so it could keep on dropping until 96 with no significant rallies. Take profits, but not too fast and you can’t lose.
People are very unhappy.. market reflects that.. midterms are going to take the S&P to 850 eaasy.
BYE BYE MARKETS.
Beautiful action so far huh Jeff? I just took some more profits but still plan to let a bunch ride through the weekend. Love to see us hit 1059 or lower today!
I took some profits when we were down .94. My next profit point is if we are down 1.44. If we are ever down .21 or less, I will be doing a small reload.
Cool, it looks like we both made good decisions earlier today. I have a feeling we may go down a little more now and then back up for the final half hour so so. I’m thinking we close right around 1068, but hoping for lower
This market is going higher,take a look at SMH it’s up pretty big and the overall market is red look for a reversal IMO…
If you like risk I would buy EU/USD right now. We are at a resistance level 1.2680. I think this pair will go back to 1.30 or higher short term so buy here and place stops around 1.2650
Hey Jrod,
Thanks for your posts ..
I believe the euro will tank and test the 118-119 within the next several weeks …
so please be careful
have a nice Day
Opex Friday often it forms V or reverse V. Afternoon SP could move up
More times then not, OPEX starts and ends the day at the exact same level. Either a V or upside down V ias you say. Just an off the cuff guess based on my experience is that the start = end scenario is true about 65% of the time.
Typical OPEX start = end
$VIX is not moving…people buying calls to hedge their shorts? Anyone having a theory on what’s going on today or just due to opex? Thanks.
It’s a slow bleed, I think this should bottom out temporarily at 1060 today or Monday.
Bought some Oct 106 SPY puts.
107.18 was the previous low and I highly doubt it will hold today.
I still have my long FAS positioned opened yesterday @ 19.28 with stop still set to 18.50. Watching the action. So far bank stocks looking overall good today after the opening dip. If the bullish case is to take root I would like the XLF to regain or pass 13.90 today. That would setup for a big rally on Monday. Ending just below that would signal a backtest to me and likely cliff dive on Monday. The latter case will likely have me exiting my FAS position tonight.
XLF should find some healthy support here at the 13.71 mark. Adjusted my stop on my FAS down to 18.40 to allow for the possibility of this support working. Break below this will trigger my stop and have me on the sidelines waiting to see if 13.50 holds before making another move.
This drop is not issolated to the US. I cannot say whether the other markets are red due to US. I believe US markets have not been in coorelation with China. Every (major) market per bloomberg is now red. US may lead to green…in may not…but I don’t see US green and world red (although I never believed in green shoots).
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/
I feel sorry for the investment advisors running long only funds with a directive to stay fully invested. I work in a family office and we run a few of those fund. They best they have been able to do is beat the S&P by a few % each year (after fees). They have no choice but to hope for upside. During the large drops of a few years ago, our investment board was actually consoling the investment advisor, he was so upset that his analysis showed stocks were great values, yet they were still being crushed. There was just no safe haven given the directive given by our investment committed.
The investors in these funds (trust fund babies) do understand they cannot do well when market tanks, and 99.9% stay fully invested. They do have very long term outlooks, this is old old money passed down from generation to generation. It is amazing to me to see cost basis of 10 cents / share on shares now trading at $100 or so a share. And I’m taliking about hundreds of thousands of shares. The gains are so large the investors generally give the shares to charity to avoid recognizing the gains. They tend to live off the dividend income. And with the funds harvestiing losses, they really are free to take gains “tax free” so there is little incentive to sell this year to take advantage of the 15% cap gain rate, which will be 20% next year.
There are others who I am sure will recognize gains this year to take advantage of the lower tax rates. I suspect this may occur once there is either an announcement that Bush tax cuts are officially dead OR as 12/31 approaches. On the other side, if they extend rate cut then perhaps there will be less than normal year end selling.
Article by Tom McClellan – Editor, The McClellan Market Report – Re: Hindenburg Omen – did it occur or not (repost). I’ve heard there may have been another one yesterday (per someone on Daneric’s site who knows a lot about this…(credit to AlbertRocks)), but as far as I know it’s unconfirmed. According to the poster, if it didn’t hit, as my hero Maxwell Smart used to say…”missed it by only an inch”.
http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/kb/special_market_reports/hindenburg_omen_signaled_but_also_not
Note: heard this signal is accurate about 20% of the time (I forget if I read 17% or 27%). I’m rehashing what I have been reading and I can’t verify accuracy, but % seems right since 1980 based on the charts in the above article.
Like I said yesterday once FAZ broke 16.00 it would ride up to the 16.50 range and here it is. SPY is breaking south of 106 and it looks like we are going to test the 1060 range on the SPX hold on here we go!
Best major market per bloomberg is down only .3% . Most down more than 1%. S&P is in the top 3 performers at the moment, only down ~ 1/2 percent.
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/
I also don’t recall green futures and red all day from the start as I believe we’ve had twice this week. I truly believe something real bad is on the horizon, when is the question (in my mind). GLTA, trade safely.
And not one green market shown, (not that they show every market)
My NVDA is up and has been going against the grain in the last few days…first time in a long time my longs and shorts are going up at the same time….pick some NVDA up as a hedge since it looked to be beaten up pretty good…well ahead of all the other semis….call options also looked strong….now the question..do I sell into the strength here or anticipate a bounce for longs on monday..I guess I will wait to see if we close above or below 106 on the spy…GL
perhaps people nervous to hold over weekend?
next week if there is no news we move up?
drops later.
I was wondering what to do with positions over the weekend. I am trying to reduce risk as I have a tendancy to be too slow to sell. I know woo mentioned yesterday he would not hold anything over weekend. I am hearing some people calling for monster rallys @ 1057 – 1060ish.
The most technical trader I follow, who’s really doing well in trades posted this about 5 minutes ago.
A buy is setting up for Monday @1057. 1070.39ish is now solid resistance on wkly for push down to 1046-1055 (wsupp). This area likely to be weak or break. Any intraday bounce today likely to get terminated at the 1070.39ish#
correction: 3rd best market was S&P/TSX COMPOSITE INDEX ; not S&P 500.
GS up over 1/2 %. Many people saying this is normal and not panic selling, based on vix. Here’s one such article…http://www.stocktiming.com/Friday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
Low volume is earie. Busses to Hamptons again packed. Traffic into NYC this AM extremely light. Soon summer is over, so maybe traders away today?
long CNQ.TO at 33.45. small position.
lets see if i can drive this market down for you.
Thanks buddy. Any help is appreciated
From one of the more bullish blogs I enjoy reading. The writer (Pugs) uses EW and TA. His calls were dead on when things were up, and he’s changed counts recently with a bearish bias.
His latest post as of an hour ago
12:05 pm EST: Today’s SP-500 drop reminds a lot of the July 16th OPEX expiration where there was a big SP-500 drop and the VIX did not confirm the drop. Same thing is happening with the VIX today. The VIX is flat to down all day with the SP-500 off up to 11 points (-1%)Of course the July OPEX bottom near 1057 led to the explosive rally to 1129 by early August.
I’m just reposting, I really don’t have an opinion (yet) about what will come later. My bias in the immediate term is certainly bearish. I do feel more comfortable short now, as opposed to when I was long last week. (I’m not checking positions nearly as often).
Thanks Robert
appreciate your Posts
hey Sam,
I appreciate your confidence in your forecasts. But can you please tone it down, I think your posts valuable as they are get ignored simply for all the Gloating you do in them. I take you seriously but please be a gentleman and start posting with some civility….
AMEN
Alrighty here comes that miraculous comeback again! Don’t ya just love it? Everything is supposedly so bad, we are diving to sub 1000 yada yada yada but the market always has the “Miraculous” comeback. Nothing more than a major headfake as they rob you again.
not so sure, every rise seems to be pushed back down. Anything is possible, but this feels like the real deal. I believe most will concede max pain of SPY 110 will not occur by EOD. At some point longs will need to stop buying and being down 5 min after trade. Maybe scalpers are playing the rises, but if they are, they are like sparrows, taking quick bites and flying off, too fast to be caught. Any buy and hold long must feel the pressure.
It’f funny, I suggested to my parents they lighten up on equities, they said ..really, why? No idea there is at least a threat of a drop. I believe they represent a large portion of investors, holding positions in 401k’s etc, busy with day to day $hit and not even realizing a large drop may occur.
And to quote one of your earlier posts…the trend is your friend. I see you have some bearish warnings — and I certainly understand flipping your opinion — I’m in that camp. But do you really believe the trend is up? Resistance is resistance until it’s broken. Support is support until broken, then it becomes resistance. I could even see a rise to low 1100′s on S&P (I doubt it will happen, but it would not shock me) but IF this rises to 1105 bulls better be strong because many bears will pile in.
Are you holding long through all of this? I just could no longer do that, and I do try to have a longer term outlook than others. My preferred holding period is days, not hours, and sometimes weeks.
EXACTLY the trend is your friend. What has happend the last few days? Up until then the trend was indeed up but after the Phili numbers came out then down we are going, the trend has reversed. We are stuck in a range right now and anything can happen. What ever choice you make don’t go all in play in stages then when a confirmation is made buy more.
agreed, not all in….learning to fight the temptation
Idan, Woo
Do you buy GOOG at $460 for a short term bounce?
sold my GLD calls for a slight loss.
bought some SPY puts near close, hoping for a drop. Sold for a small loss. not willing to hold over the weekend.
oops, didn’t post this at the bottom. oh well.
goog is a bit in the middle of nowhere in terms of long term trend lines
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GOOG&p=D&yr=2&mn=5&dy=0&id=p56586882741&a=181587577
however, that 460 looks like a good support level based on previous movement.
Maybe I’m in the minority but my charts have not confirmed a major move to the downside. I’m maintaining a neutral bias while riding FAS/FAZ up and down.
I am with you brother. The downside seems to easy…Yes we are in a hole but it is way too soon to go down…So as I wrote last week this can be a monster trap
I sort of agree, but based on recent history, the drops seem to last a few days. The fact that it occurred during opex, when there was incentive for the MM’s to get it to 110 seems to indicate to me even they got spanked trying to fight this. Or perhaps they bought puts @ 107…..
I repeat my forecast EU/USD will go up in the coming weeks…In case I am wrong stops are at 1.2650. I trade forex with small positions just for fun so I have open 6 lots that I bought at 1.2672. 40 pips gain so far…
Just don’t be surprised when the market ends up flat EOD because that is what will happen. I look to see Monday green(as usual). If you are playing short hold on , if you are playing long you should have bought on the dip, and if you are scalping the market you should have sold earlier today.
Did my first reload of the day. If we can get to 108.20, I will have reinvested all of todays profits for the ultimate fall.
long CPG.TO at 35.95. small position.
vxx right back to where I bought it yesterday (@ ~ 11AM). down about 1% for the day. Actually glad about that, as I was thinking about adding more…but not today.
Picture perfect H&S bottom on the SPY 5 min. I think we’ll see a down day Monday with a potential bottoming out.
I didnt notice the time until I saw that big green up candle on SPY 1 minute ago. You may be right dsavil about ending flat. I’m going to hold short, expecting up on Monday and then hopefully a nice down wave a la EW.
attempted rallies keep getting spanked down. Damn, I’m now talking to myself.
I’m holding short and there is no confirmed movement except we have gotten lower lows and lower highs so I have to tend to be more bearish.
me too going to hold short. Still at half position, but with 3X leverage on FAZ, maybe it’s equal to 1.5 X short…Only 2 prudent choices I see are cash or short. Long may turn out to be best, but IMO more of a gamble.
These bots are probably making a fortune, scalping 2 cents here / there every couple of minutes, rinse and repeat. Pattern seems pretty reiliable, up, spank down, up, repeat.
Yeppers basically boring. EOD close -20.00. There ya go.
close is slightly bullish
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p18784934722&a=181956106
trend line held
1 month:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=5&yr=0&mn=1&dy=10&id=p28000533881&a=181738042
trend line recaptured
Do you think MM’s were trying to keep this up past two days and they just couldnt overcome the pressure?
seems like according to that first link for the 1 year chart, the market ended right in between two major long term trend lines. It leaves the market open to the most possibilities and allows for a wedge rise to 1078 without committing to any bearish or bullish bias.
Seems like MM’s brought the market down hard and oversold the market to maximize profits, and then brought it back above support to keep the close ambiguous. But that’s all speculation.
I am a little doubtful that the market is going to drop into monday because i think that will make things a little too clear and obvious. It’s easier to wedge the market sideways, or bring it up but leave it below the 1090 area. even another rise to 1100 would allow for ambiguity. So the north side seems more probable to me short term.
that being said…the reason i didn’t hold any positions over the weekend is because if we DO drop down, the gap down is going to be pretty huge. maybe 20+ points.
thanks as always for your input. If I can become 1/2 as good a trader as you are, I would be happy.
lol. you are too kind with your words. i’m actually a better analyst than i am a trader haha. a lot of times i don’t listen to my own charts and take a risk i shouldn’t have. i would rather have somebody manage my trades for me based on my analysis to take the emotional connection out of the trade completely.
i lost some money today overall on my gold calls. and lost a little on an SPY put position that i tested near EOD. overall the week was very good for me though. good luck!
Thanks Woo,
I really appreciate your wisdom, analysis
I agree with you — it seems/ feels like we are going to get a small bounce up Mon/tues … then down big
Another good day. I think most people are looking for Monday to be green even in a big way, but I’m thinking it will be red, possible deep in the red. We’ll see in 3 days.
Hope everybody here has a good weekend, see you in 3 days!
Lots of people also short. Hindenberg omens, P3, etc. I dont follow EWI too carefully, but I heard about a month or so back Bob Pretcher was recommending 2X short.
Bob Prechter has been wrong a lot. He’s human =)
Hey Robert,
Yeah I’ve head those things as well, and they definitely have merit. There’s just no technical or fundamental indicator for this market to rise, so it won’t. Looking for a good drop next week and huge downward move in September.
Hey Goingtoretire ,
I really appreciate your wisdom, analysis ..
I Hope you are correct but — it seems/ feels like we are going to get a small bounce up Mon/tues … then down big
I am still holding shorts –
Have a Great wekend
mark
Hey Mark,
Thanks Mark, its always a pleasure talking with you.
Yeah, I could see a technical bounce on Monday or Tuesday, but I’m thinking it will be Tuesday more likely. Hoping for a small bounce, and pretty confident that’s what we’ll see.
Take care, and have a great weekend!
Although crashes rarely happen when every one thinks they are coming expections to this have been recorded in history. In 1907 the market crashed when everyone expected a crash and it took JP morgan himself to save the financial system. This was before the creation of the federal reserve so don’t worry too much Jamie D.
Also, a lot of people predicted the 1987 crash a trading day or 2 in advance since those markets were in turmoil(myself included). That bragging moment turned $6000 into $35,000 in 1 1/2 days. Unfortunately, it also kept me bearish throughout the 1990′s and I lost a hell of a lot more than $35,000. Be careful what you wish for.
I am not wishing for a crash at all. Any American hoping to see more jobs lost/ more 401k money go up in smoke/ more people financially runined = a traitor. The last thing I want is a crash but hoping against and getting ready for are two diff. things
I disagree that hoping for a crash makes one a traitor. Quite the opposite. What’s good for Wall Street is bad for the American people and vice versa. With low PE ratios in a non-stimulus environment, ordinary people would have a place to put their money without having to worry about the Wall Street casino. With higher interest rates, ordinary people will have incentive to save. Today the rich are getting richer and everyone else is getting poorer and that trend will continue for all but a few lucky traders unless the market crashes hard and stays down for a long time. Short term pain will lead to real gains, so wish for a crash, hope for a crash and prepare for a crash.
“ordinary people would have a place to put their money without having to worry about wall street casino”
A crash suggests another economic slow down. Ordinary people would continue to lose their jobs or remain unemployed living off their savings/410k’s. AS Unemployment continued to rise /market continued to fall ordinary people won’t have money to invest in “cheap” stocks or the ability to recognize a bottom. If you think a crash is good for ordinary people then you must have voted for Obama.
Hey Jeff,
Couldn’t have said it better myself, or even as good. Excellent explanation my friend!